Figure 1: Quartely milk production and gross value

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1 Million Litres Million Rands QUARTERLY DAIRY MARKET ANALYSIS BULLETIN 1 OF INTRODUCTION The following discussion is a review of the dairy market environment. The analysis is updated on a quarterly 1 basis and the interval covered in the current issue is from October 213 to December 214. This period is divided into five, three-month long quarters. The key issues discussed in the review are trends in production, price, trade, growth and volatility. 2. PRODUCTION TRENDS The quarterly production of milk during the five quarters under review is illustrated in Figure 1 below. Figure 1: Quartely milk production and gross value Production Gross Value Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF 1 Quarter 1 (January March); Quarter 2 (April June); Quarter 3 (July September); Quarter 4 (October December) 1

2 Rands/Litre During the third quarter of 214, South Africa managed to produce 869 million litres of milk with the value amounting to R3 962 million. There was an improvement of milk production and value in quarter 4 of 214 as compared to quarter 3 of 214. Milk production and gross value experienced an increase of 4% and 7% respectively in quarter 4 of 214 relative quarter 3 of 214. As milk production is determined by a combination of biological, environmental and economic factors, production does not react directly to changes in prices. However, unfavourable milk-feed price ratios will result in slower production growth or lower production over time. 3. PRICE TREND OF MILK Figure 2 below illustrates the average quarterly producer price for milk Figure 2: Quarterly milk producer prices Price Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF The average producer price for milk during the fourth quarter of 214 was R4.56 per litre. The average price of milk was R.26 /l (6%) higher than the average price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 214) and 14% higher than the average price at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 213). Figure 2 above shows that milk producer price moved at an increasing trend from quarter until quarter and decrease slightly before it picks up during the period under review. In South African terms a weaker Rand contributed to a sudden increase in prices. Higher production in the Southern Hemisphere as well as resistance to record prices has since resulted in a decrease in product prices. 2

3 Million Kilograms Million Rands 4. EXPORT TREND OF MILK AND DAIRY PRODUCTS Table 3 below illustrates the trends in quarterly milk and dairy exports Figure 3: Quartely exports of milk and dairy products Quantity Value Source: Quantec Easy Data The quarterly export volumes and values of milk for the period under review are presented in Figure 3. As shown in the figure above, 2 million kilograms of milk worth R 367 million were exported by South Africa during the fourth quarter of 214. The export volume was 11% higher than the quarterly volume of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 214) and 1.4% higher than the quarterly volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 213). Exports quantity reached a peak during quarter 4 of 214 while exports value also reached a peak during quarter 4 of 214. The value of exports is mostly dependent on the volumes available for sale, the exchange rate, as well as the prevailing international demand. Figure 3 shows that exports of milk and dairy products (both value and quantity) moved at a decreasing trend since quarter 1 of 214 to quarter 2 of 214. The increase in export volumes might be attributed to increased production volumes. 3

4 Thousand Kilograms 4.1. MILK AND DAIRY PRODUCTS EXPORTED IN VOLUMES Figure 4 below show the volumes of milk and dairy products exported by the South African dairy industry. Figure 4: Quartely export quantities of milk and dairy Products Milk and Cream,Not Concentrated Nor Milk and Cream,Concentrated or Buttermilk,Curdled Milk, Cream and Yogurt Whey Butter, other fats and oils Cheese and Curd Source: Quantec EasyData It is evident from Figure 4 above that the major South African exported dairy product was Milk and Cream (not concentrated nor sweetened) followed at a distant by Buttermilk, curdled milk, cream and Yogurt and Milk and Cream (concentrated or sweetened) during the period under review. The lowest three exported milk products were Whey, Butter and other fats and Cheese and Curd. On average the highest quantities of milk and milk products exported was Milk and Cream (not concentrated nor sweetened) which averaged Kg per quarter followed by Buttermilk, Cream and Yogurt with Kg and Milk and Cream (concentrated or sweetened) at Kg per quarter during period under review. The lowest exported milk product during the period under analysis is Butter and other fats which averaged kilograms per quarter. 4

5 Million Rands 4.2. VALUE OF MILK AND DAIRY PRODUCTS EXPORTS (RANDS) Quarterly values of various mild and dairy products export during the five quarters under review are shown in Figure 5 below. Figure 5: Quartely export values of milk and dairy products Milk and Cream,Not Concentrated Nor Milk and Cream,Concentrated or Source: Quantec EasyData Buttermilk,Curdled Milk, Cream and Yogurt Whey Butter, other fats and oils Cheese and Curd Figure 5 shows that Buttermilk, Curdled Milk, Cream and Yoghurt commanded the greatest values of milk and dairy products exported during the period under review. On average Buttermilk, Cream and Yoghurt commanded the highest export value of R followed by Milk and Cream (concentrated or sweetened) at R and then Milk and Cream (not concentrated nor sweetened) at R during the period under review. The lowest export value was commanded by Whey with an average value of R per quarter during the period under review. 5

6 Million Kilograms Million Rands 5. IMPORT TREND OF MILK AND DAIRY PRODUCTS Quarterly imports of milk and dairy products are depicted in Figure 6 below Figure: Quartely imports Quantity of milk and dairy products Quantity Value Source: Quantec EasyData According to Figure 6 above, South Africa has imported kilograms of milk and dairy products with the value of R in quarter 4 of 214. Milk production grew at faster rates in leading exporting countries in 214 than 213. Higher production did result in lower international prices. The decrease of the international milk prices and the improving rand led into importers paying less for importing milk and milk products. This explains the increase of milk and dairy products imports during the fourth quarter of 214 as compared to same period last year. Figure 6 above shows that imports quantities went up by.2% and values went down by 37% during fourth quarter in 214 as compared to third quarter in 214. Imports quantities went up by 24% and values went down by12% as compared to the fourth quarter of

7 5.1. QUANTITY OF MILK AND DAIRY PRODUCTS IMPORTS Quarterly import quantities for various milk and dairy products during the five quarters under review are presented in Figure 7. Source: Quantec EasyData Figure 7: Quartely imports quantities of milk and dairy products Milk and Cream,Not Concentrated Nor Milk and Cream,Concentrated or Buttermilk,Curdled Milk, Cream and Yogurt Whey Butter, other fats and oils Cheese and Curd Figure 7 above shows that three milk products competed for the highest volumes during the period under review. Whey commanded the highest volumes during the third and fourth quarter of 213 and milk and cream took over during quarter 1 of 214. Whey import quantities have been on a decreasing trend from quarter 1 quarter of 214 to quarter 2 quarter in 214. The lowest product imported during the period under analysis is Buttermilk, curdled milk and Yoghurt. On average, the most imported products are Whey by Kg, Cheese and Curd by Kg, followed by Milk & Cream (concentrated or sweetened) with Kg per quarter during the period under analysis. The lowest imported milk product was Buttermilk, curdled milk, Cream and Yogurt with an average of Kg per quarter. 7

8 Million Rands 5.2. VALUE OF MILK AND DAIRY PRODUCTS IMPORTS Quarterly import values for the various milk and dairy products imports are presented in Figure 8 below. Figure: Quartely imports values of milk and milk products Milk and Cream,Not Concentrated Nor Milk and Cream,Concentrated or Buttermilk,Curdled Milk, Cream and Yogurt Whey Butter, other fats and oils Cheese and Curd Source: Quantec EasyData The highest import values were commanded by Cheese and Curd throughout the period under analysis. Cheese and curd commanded the second from quarter 4 of 213 until quarter 3 of 214. Buttermilk, Curdled Milk, Cream and Yogurt and Butter and other fats and oils commanded the lowest shares during the period under review. On average Cheese and curd commanded the greatest value of R followed at a distance by Milk and Cream (concentrated or sweetened) at R and Whey at R per quarter during the period under review. Milk and cream, not concentrated nor sweetened commanded the lowest shares of R per quarter. 6. GROWTH, VOLATILITY AND STABILITY Dairy industry growth is calculated using the least squares method. Y = b + b1x. Where Y : Values. b : Intercept. : Slope. b1 8

9 X : Observations. The volatility and stability measures were determined by calculating the coefficient of variation for the various beef industry statistical series. The formulation for these values is as follows: ( xi ) V 1 N 1 where : V Coefficien t of Variation. S tan dard Deviation mean x i obervations in quarter i. N Number of quarters. The outcomes of these growth and volatility calculations are presented in Table 1. They are calculated using quarterly statistics and covered the same five, three months long quarter period under review starting from October 213 and ending December 214. Table 1: Dairy industry growth rate and coefficient of variation Category Sub Category Growth Rate (%) Coefficient of Variation 2 Production Volume Gross value Value Producer price Value 3..5 Exports Volume Value Imports Volume Value Source: Calculated from Statistics and Economic Analysis & Quantec EasyData. Table 1 indicates that domestic production volume and imports value experienced negative growth rate of -1.4% and -.38% respectively whereas gross value, producer price, exports (volume and value) and imports volume experienced positive growth rate of 2.16%, 3.%,.98%, 2.36%, and 4.71% respectively. Table 1 also depicts the levels of volatility/ stability for different variables of the dairy industry s quarterly figures over the period October 213 to December 214. Production, gross value, producer price, exports and imports were relatively stable during the period under review with coefficient variation ranging from.5 to Calculations are based on average values 9

10 7. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. Acknowledgement is given to the following information sources: a. Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis. b. Quantec EasyData. c. Milk Producers Organisation For more information contact: Director: Marketing Private Bag X 15 Arcadia 7 Tel: (12) Fax: (12) Website: http//. Deputy Director: Commodity Marketing Tel: (12) Fax: (12) Senior Agricultural Economist (Livestock) Tel: (12) Fax: (12) Disclaimer: This document and its contents have been compiled by the Directorate: Marketing within the Department of Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries for the purposes of detailing the dairy market. Anyone who uses this information does so at his/her own risk. The views expressed in this document are those of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries with regard to the industry, unless otherwise stated. The Department of Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries therefore, accepts no liability for losses incurred resulting from the use of this information. 1

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