World Agricultural Production

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 4-15 April 2015 Agricultural Brazil Corn: Unchanged at 75 Million Tons; Second Crop Planted USDA forecasts Brazil corn production for 2014/15 at 75.0 million tons, unchanged from last month, but down 5.0 million tons from last year. is estimated at 15.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 0.8 million hectares from last year. is forecast at 5.00 tons per hectare, down 1.2 percent from last year. A decrease in the first-season crop estimate was offset by an increase in the second-season forecast. First-season corn is planted in September and harvested in March. A larger second-season, or safrinha crop, is expected to be over 60 percent of national production. The safrinha crop is planted after the early season soybean harvest typically in January and February. The safrinha crop is harvested in June through August and is mostly exported. Approved by the Agricultural Outlook Board

2 Early expectations were that second-corn area would decline precipitously due to low prices, but the sharp depreciation in the exchange rate in early 2015 has improved the economic outlook for corn. has not declined as much as previously estimated. The planting of second-crop corn began in February 2015 and the expected planted area was achieved despite the late harvested soybean crop. Mato Grosso is the largest producer of the safrinha crop which accounts for 34 percent. Other key areas are the states of Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goiás. Early season satellite-derived vegetation indices indicate conditions are very good in Mato Grosso, but Goias and Mato Grosso do Sul may be experiencing late planting and will need to be monitored further. Brazil s safrinha corn yields are determined chiefly by rainfall in April and May. For the last three years, second-crop corn yields have been high because the rainy season extended into late May and June. Farmers plant as early as possible after the soybean harvest to mitigate risks of an early ending of the rainy season. (For more information, please contact Robert.Tetrault@fas.usda.gov.) South Africa Corn: Drought during Pollination Reduces Dryland s average yield of 4.13 MT/Ha. South Africa s 2014/15 corn production is forecast at 11.3 million tons, down 0.2 million tons or 1.7 percent from last month and down 3.7 million tons or 25 percent from last year. is forecast at 3.1 million hectares, unchanged from last month and nearly the same as last year s area of million hectares. is forecast at 3.65 tons per hectare (MT/Ha), down 25 percent from last year s record yield of 4.84 MT/Ha and down 12 percent from the 5-year Irrigated corn area and yields are expected to be at record levels with irrigated yields increasing from improved high-yielding and short-season varieties. Irrigated output has been over 2 million tons for six of the past seven years and this year s drought will result in irrigated output comprising nearly one-quarter of South Africa s total output. Irrigated output for 2014/15 is forecast at 2.6 million tons on 245,000 hectares with average irrigated yields of 10.5 tons per hectare. (For more information, please contact Curt.Reynolds@fas.usda.gov). 2

3 Argentina Corn: Beneficial Rain Improves Late Planted Corn Argentina corn production for 2014/15 is estimated at 24 million metric tons, up 2.1 percent from last month, but down 7.7 percent from last year. is estimated at 2.95 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 13 percent from last year. is estimated at 8.14 tons per hectare, up 2.1 percent from last month and up 6.4 percent from last year. Later-planted corn in the grain-fill stage will likely benefit from recent showers, especially in areas normally too dry at this time of year during the last stages of crop maturation. There were concerns that high rainfall during February and early March would result in increased crop disease levels, but yields so far have been favorable. Early planted corn yields are higher than normal, with approximately 12 percent of the crop harvested. Harvesting is occurring mostly in the northern regions and in the north-central area of the province of Cordoba. Most of these areas were planted in late December with excellent weather throughout the tasseling and pollination process and into grain fill. Harvesting has started in the east-central part of Entre Rios and into north-central areas of Santa Fe with good results. Northern La Pampa and the western portion of Buenos Aires have yields that are average to very good, above original expectations of the farmers. Very late-planted corn in these regions also appears in good to excellent condition but will not be harvested for several days, when dry down of the crop can place harvested grain at moisture levels needed to preserve quality of the crop in silo bags. Corn not yet harvested in Central Buenos Aires is reportedly around 20 to 22 percent moisture content, above optimum moisture content for storage. (For more information, please contact 3 Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2015

4 Serbia Corn: Record after Abundant Summer Precipitation Serbia corn production for 2014/15 is estimated at a record 7.7 million metric tons, up 0.85 million tons or 12 percent from last month, and up 1.8 million tons or 31 percent from last year. The production increases are based chiefly on the latest official government harvest data revisions. is estimated at 1.18 million hectares, down 0.95 million or 7.5 percent from last month, and down 0.02 million hectares from last year. is estimated at a record 6.53 tons per hectare (MT/Ha), compared to last month s 5.37 MT/Ha, last year s 4.92 MT/Ha, and the five-year average of 4.75 MT/Ha. While sharing borders with many EU member states, Serbia is not part of the European Union (EU). Outside of the EU, Serbia ranks third in European corn production, behind Ukraine and Russia. During the 2014/15 crop year, above-average summer rainfall saturated soils and added biomass to the country s crops and vegetation. Precipitation was particularly heavy during late summer and autumn, benefitting yields but also causing quality problems and delaying harvest. The corn harvest in Serbia was prolonged, lasting until mid-december. Farmers typically allow corn to dry in the fields in order to avoid costly artificial drying. (For more information, please contact Bryan.Purcell@fas.usda.gov). Mexico Corn: Record s from Increased Irrigated and Favorable Summer Weather Mexico s 2014/15 corn production is estimated at 24.0 million tons, up 0.8 million from last month and up 1.1 million or 4.9 percent from last year. Estimated output was increased due to higher-than-expected planted area for irrigated winter corn and favorable weather for the summer dryland crop. Harvested area is estimated at 7.2 million hectares, up 0.07 million hectares from last month and up 0.1 million or 1.4 percent from last year. is estimated at a record of 3.36 tons per hectare, due to good summer rainfall and increased irrigated corn area. 4

5 Corn is grown in Mexico during two seasons: spring/summer and fall/winter. Planting for the spring/summer season is in April-June and harvest is in late November and December. Harvest for the 2014 spring/summer season was reported to be above average due to good rains during the summer season. Planting for the fall/winter season is September- December and harvest from January-April. Planted corn area for the 2014/15 crop was reported to be 18 percent higher than last year in Sinaloa, where most of the winter irrigated corn is grown. Sinaloa farmers reportedly planted an additional 100,000 hectares this year due to higher reservoir water levels. With this increased irrigated area, corn production is expected to reach 5 million tons in Sinaloa instead of the 3.7 million tons produced last year. (For more information, please contact Sudan Sorghum: Record with Favorable Rainfall s Record Sudan s 2014/15 sorghum production is estimated at a record 6.3 million tons, up 2.8 million from last month and up 4.0 million from last year s drought-affected crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 8.6 million hectares, up 3.0 million hectares from last month and up 4.3 million hectares from last year. s are estimated at 0.73 tons per hectare, above the 5-year average of 0.65 tons per hectare, with abundant rainfall having good spatial and temporal distribution during the entire growing season. According to a January 8, 2015 report from the Government-led annual Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM), sorghum area reached record levels due to high prices following the previous year s drought and from improvements in the availability of agricultural inputs and credit. Timely arrival of seasonal rains also contributed to increased plantings and favorable rains also provided above-average yields. In summary, the final record production was attributed to a combination of record harvested area and above-average yields from well-distributed rainfall during the growing season. (For more information, please contact Curt.Reynolds@fas.usda.gov). 5

6 Pakistan Wheat: Estimate Increased USDA estimates the 2014/15 wheat production at a record 25.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month, and up 1.5 million tons from last year. is estimated at a record 9.1 million hectares, up 5.3 percent from last year. is estimated at 2.8 tons per hectare, 0.8 percent more than last year. Harvest was completed in May 2014, and the crop has been delivered to markets and bulk handlers. This month s revision is primarily based on recent observations and reporting by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service s Office of Agricultural Affairs (FAS-OAA) in Islamabad, Pakistan. According to FAS-OAA the increase in estimated production is due to timely planting, greater availability and use of irrigation water, improved quantity and quality of inputs, an increase in the Government-established wheat support price and favorable weather. The current estimates are consistent with USDA s 2014/15 seasonal monitoring of crop and weather conditions that indicated good-to-excellent conditions across the major growing provinces, Punjab and Sindh. Overall the seasonal conditions were characterized by favorable soil moisture during the optimal planting period (October-December), good-to-excellent conditions during grain formation and maturity in January-March, and almost ideal (cool) temperatures during grain maturity stages. February-March satellite data observations indicated average-to-above-average NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) in Punjab and Sindh provinces, suggesting higher-than-expected yields. The crop outlook prior to March-April indicated that chances of an above-median wheat yield were above average across the region. Wheat is one of the main agricultural crops in Pakistan, with 80 percent of farmers growing it on an area of around nine million hectares (close to 40 percent of the country s total cultivated land) during the winter or rabi season. This crop contributed about 10 percent of the country s agricultural product and 2.2 percent of the country s gross domestic product (GDP) in (For more information, please contact Dath.Mita@fas.usda.gov). 6

7 Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service / International Assessment Division (IPAD / PECAD) Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-540), April 9, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS International Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of Agricultural will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, May 12, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Metric tons to 480-lb bales Cotton = MT * Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds 7

8 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service International Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Acting Director Paul Provance USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Curt Reynolds, PhD Sr. Analyst/Satellite Imagery Dath Mita, PhD Archives Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Robert Tetrault GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins Program Analyst Mary Jackson Management Analyst Rishan Chaudhry Administrative Assistant/COTR Terri Lagarde COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION South América, Argentina and Colombia Denise McWilliams, PhD Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell and North Africa Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman and other FSU-12 countries Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka, Arnella Trent and Bangladesh East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene India, Pakistan, and Nepal Dath Mita, PhD Sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, Curt Reynolds, PhD Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean Cambodia, and Vietnam Brazil, Venezuela, Central America, Robert Tetrault Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield Papua New Guinea, and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD Iran, Syria Western United States Justin Jenkins Eastern United States Paul Provance Crop Analyst Vacant

9 The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current Market and Trade and Agricultural Reports: Archives Market and Trade and Agricultural Reports: Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): Export Sales Report: Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): Other USDA Reports: Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): Economic Research Service: National Agricultural Statistics Service:

10 Table 01 Crop Summary Million Metric Tons Commodity - - Total Foreign - North America United States North America Canada - North America Mexico - Former Soviet Russia - Former Soviet Ukraine - Asia (WAP) China - Asia (WAP) India - South America Brazil - Asia (WAP) Indonesia Asia (WAP) Pakistan Asia (WAP) Thailand South America Argentina Selected Other Australia Selected Other South Africa Selected Other Turkey - All Others Million metric tons--- Wheat /14 prel /15 proj. Mar Apr Coarse Grains 1, /14 prel. 1, /15 proj. Mar 1, Apr 1, Rice, Milled /14 prel /15 proj. Mar Apr Total Grains 2, , /14 prel. 2, , /15 proj. Mar 2, , Apr 2, , Oilseeds /14 prel /15 proj. Mar Apr Cotton /14 prel /15 proj. Mar Apr / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

11 Table 02 Wheat,, and Change in 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union China South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Nepal Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Belarus Canada Argentina Brazil Uruguay Australia Africa Egypt Morocco Ethiopia Algeria Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Mexico Others

12 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain,, and Change in 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent , , , , United States Total Foreign China European Union Brazil Argentina Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Africa Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Burkina Ethiopia Egypt Mali India Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Others ; Coarse Grain includes: Barley, Corn, Millet, Mixed Grains, Oats, Rye and Sorghum

13 Table 04 Corn,, and Change in 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign China Brazil Argentina Bolivia European Union Africa South Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Egypt Tanzania Malawi Zambia Kenya Uganda Zimbabwe Former Soviet Union - 12 Ukraine Russia South Asia India Pakistan Nepal Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Turkey Others

14 Table 05 Barley,, and Change in 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Azerbaijan Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Africa Ethiopia Morocco Algeria Tunisia South Africa Argentina Uruguay Brazil India China Mexico Afghanistan Others

15 Table 06 Oats,, and Change in 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Belarus Kazakhstan Canada Argentina Brazil Chile Uruguay Oceania Australia New Zealand China Africa Algeria Morocco South Africa Other Europe Norway Serbia Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Turkey Mexico Others

16 Table 07 Rye,, and Change in 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Belarus Ukraine Kazakhstan Turkey Canada Chile Argentina Other Europe Bosnia and Herzegovina Switzerland Serbia Australia Others

17 Table 08 Sorghum,, and Change in 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Sudan Burkina Mali Niger Cameroon Tanzania Egypt Uganda Ghana Mozambique South Africa Mexico Argentina Brazil South Asia India Pakistan China Australia European Union Others

18 Table 09 Rice,, and Change in 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign East Asia China Japan Korea, South Korea, North South Asia India Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Philippines Cambodia Laos Malaysia Brazil Peru Africa Egypt Madagascar Nigeria European Union Iran Others is on a rough basis, before the milling process is on a milled basis, after the milling process

19 Table 10 Total Oilseed,, and Change in 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent Total Total Foreign Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Palm Kernel Major OilSeeds United States Foreign Oilseeds Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay China South Asia India Pakistan European Union Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Canada Africa Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Australia Turkey Others Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel)major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)

20 Table 11 Soybean,, and Change in 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay East Asia China Korea, South Korea, North Japan India Canada Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine European Union Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Mexico Iran Africa South Africa Nigeria Zambia Uganda Middle East Iran Turkey Others

21 Table 12 Cottonseed,, and Change in 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign South Asia India Pakistan China Former Soviet Union - 12 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan Brazil Argentina Middle East Turkey Syria Iran Australia European Union Africa Burkina Mali Cameroon Cote d'ivoire Benin Tanzania Egypt Nigeria Uganda Zimbabwe Sudan Mexico Burma Others

22 Table 13 Peanut,, and Change in 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign China Africa Nigeria Sudan Senegal Cameroon Ghana Chad Malawi Congo (Kinshasa) Niger Mali Uganda Burkina Guinea Egypt Central African Republic South Africa Mozambique Cote d'ivoire Benin South Asia India Pakistan Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Vietnam Thailand Argentina Brazil Mexico Others

23 Table 14 Sunflowerseed,, and Change in 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr 2013/14 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan European Union Argentina Uruguay Bolivia Brazil Paraguay China South Asia India Pakistan Middle East Turkey Iran Israel Africa Egypt Morocco South Africa Burma Canada Australia Others