Sunflower & Soybean Forum

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1 Sunflower & Soybean Forum 28 November 2016 Nico Hawkins General Manager

2 Sunflower

3 Sunflower: Supply & Demand National vs. International Marketing season SAGIS NAMC (S&D) International (USDA) Mar - Feb Projection: Final 2015/16 (c) 2016/17 (c) '000t '000t Sept - Aug Projection: Final: 2015/16 (d) 2016/17 (d) Mt Mt Opening stocks Production Imports Processed (b) (b) Exports Closing stocks 45.9 (a) 79.2 (a) (a) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures (b) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users (c) Source: SAGIS 25 Nov '16 & NAMC: S&DEC - 28 Oct '16 (d) Source: USDA - 23 Nov '16

4 Sunflower: Production & Producer deliveries Crop Estimate vs. Producer deliveries Sunflower 2016/ / /15 CEC Production * SAGIS Deliveries Difference * Final Forecast ** SAGIS Progr. Mar '16 - Oct '16 Ton

5 Sunflower: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS deliveries (2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 31 Oct 16) Ton SUNFLOWERSEED : CEC Crop Est., Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries Yield SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Crop Est) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) Source: S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj. 0.00

6 Sunflower: Imports & Exports Summarised info Marketing year Sunflower Import Export Ton 2014/ / *2016/ *Progr. Mar '16 - Oct '16 Source: SAGIS

7 Sunflower: Imports & Exports per marketing year (2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 31 Oct 16) Ton SUNFLOWERSEED: Imports & Exports Imports Exports Source: S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.

8 Sunflower: Imports for RSA (2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 31 Oct 16) Month Botswana Bulgaria Malawi Month Total Progr. Total Ton 2016/03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ TOTAL 2016/ Progr. Mar - Oct '16 Source: SAGIS

9 Sunflower: RSA Exports (2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 31 Oct 16) Month Botswana Namibia Swaziland Zimbabwe Month Total Progr. Total Ton 2016/03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ TOTAL 2016/ Progr. Mar - Oct '16 Source: SAGIS

10 Sunflower: Processed Sunflower Processed 2016/17 * 2015/16 ** Firms Tons Firms Tons Human Consumption Animal Feed Oil and Oilcake * 2016/17: Mar '16 - Oct '16 Source: SAGIS ** 2015/16: Mar '15 - Oct '15

11 Sunflower: Consumption (2016/17 : Progr. 1 Mar 31 Oct 16) Ton SUNFLOWERSEED : Crushed Source: S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.

12 Sunflower: Opening & Ending Stocks 2016/17 : Progr. 1 Mar 31 Oct 16) Ton SUNFLOWERSEED: Stocks Opening stock Ending Stock Source: S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.

13 Sunflower: 2016/17 Marketing Year (Progr. 1 Mar 31 Oct 16) SUNFLOWER: 2016/17 Season - Mar '16 to Oct' S&DEC Deliveries S&DEC Imports S&DEC Processed 200 S&DEC Exports CEC (Crop Est) Prod deliveries Imports Processed Exports 167

14 Sunflower: Price Movements SAFEX Local prices Sunflower - SAFEX Latest prices vs previous prices Future prices for: 2016/11/ /10/ /11/16 % Month % Year Price Price Price on Month on Year R/Ton R/Ton R/Ton December March Source: SAFEX

15 Sunflower: Price movements Indicative Import Parity Prices French Sunflower Bordaux $/t value $/t Freight rate Insurance (0.3% of ) 1.23 Cost, Insurance and Freight (cif) $/t Converted to R/t: Exhange R/$ (2016/11/15) Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) R/t Financing cost Cost, Insurance, Freight and Financing R/t Discharge cost - Durban Import tariff 0.00 Free on Rail (FOR) - Durban Railage: Durban - Randfontein DELIVERED: Durban - Randfontein Delivered: Durban - Randfontein (2015/11/17) R/t

16 Sunflower: SARS Prices Imports & Exports Sunflower Oil Cake 2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar - Sep 16 SUNFLOWER OIL CAKE /17 Mar - Sep 2015/ /15 Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) R' Value per ton R/Ton SUNFLOWER OIL CAKE /17 Mar - Sep 2015/ /15 Exports Total value of exports Quantity (Ton) R' Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS

17 Sunflower: SARS Prices Imports & Exports Sunflower Crude Oil 2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar Sep 16 SUNFLOWER SEED CRUDE OIL /17 Mar - Sep 2015/ /15 Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) R' Value per ton R/Ton SUNFLOWER SEED CRUDE OIL /17 Mar - Sep 2015/ /15 Exports Total value of exports Quantity (Ton) R' Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS

18 Sunflower: SARS Prices Imports per country Sunflower seeds whether or nor broken (Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 16) Imports Tariff Line Sunflower seeds - whether or not broken Country Ton value R'000 Rand/ton Argentina Bolivia Botswana Bulgaria China Egypt Germany Israel Malawi Tanzania Turkey United Arab Emirates United States Zambia TOTAL Progressive: Mar - Sep '16 Souce: SARS

19 Sunflower: SARS Prices Exports per country Sunflower seeds whether or not broken (Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 16) Country Ton value R'000 Rand/ton Angola Argentina Austria Botswana Chile Congo Ghana Kenya Lesotho Madagascar Malawi Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Sudan Syriam Aram Rep Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe TOTAL Progressive: Mar - Sep '16 Source: SARS

20 Soybeans

21 Soybeans: Supply & Demand (National vs. International Marketing season SAGIS NAMC (S&D) International (USDA) Mar - Feb Final Projection: 2015/16 (c) 2016/17 (c) '000t '000t Sept - Aug Final: Projection: 2015/16 (d) 2016/17 (d) Mt Mt Opening stocks Production Imports Processed (b) (b) Exports Closing stocks 89.1 (a) 75.2 (a) (a) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures (b) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users (c) Source: SAGIS 25 Nov '16 & NAMC: S&DEC - 28 Oct '16 (d) Source: USDA - 23 Nov '16

22 Soybeans: Production & Producer deliveries Crop Estimate vs. Producer Deliveries Soybean 2016/ / /15 Ton CEC Production * Less Retentions Total available SAGIS Deliveries ** Difference * Final Forecast ** SAGIS Progr. Mar '16 - Oct '16

23 Soybeans: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS deliveries (2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 31 Oct 16) Ton SOYBEANS: CEC Crop Est., Ha, Yield & SAGIS Deliveries Yield SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Crop Est) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) Source: S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj. 0.00

24 Soybeans: Imports & Exports Summarised info Marketing year Import Export 2014/ / *2016/ *Progr. Mar '16 - Oct '16 Source: SAGIS Soybean Ton

25 Soybeans Imports & Exports per marketing year (2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 31 Oct 16) Ton SOYBEANS: Imports & Exports Imports Exports 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. Source: S&DEC 16/17 Proj.

26 Soybeans: Imports for RSA (2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 31 Oct 16) Month Ethiopia Paraguay Zambia Month Total Progressive Total 2016/03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ TOTAL 2016/ Progr. Mar - Oct '16 Source: SAGIS Ton

27 Soybeans: RSA Exports (2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 31 Oct 16) Month Mozambique Zimbabwe Month Total Ton Progressive Total 2016/03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ TOTAL 2016/ Progr. Mar - Oct '16 Source: SAGIS

28 Processed & Consumption Soybeans: Processed Soybeans Processed Firms Tons Firms Tons Human Consumption Animal Feed Oil and Oilcake * 2016/17: Mar '16 - Oct '16 Source: SAGIS ** 2015/16: Mar '15 - Oct ' /17 * 2015/16 **

29 Soybeans: Consumption (2016/17 : Progr. 1 Mar 31 Oct 16) Ton SOYBEANS: Processed Human Animal feed (full fat soya) Crush (oil/oilcake) Source: S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.

30 Soybeans: Opening & Ending Stocks (2016/17 : Progr. 1 Mar 31 Oct 16) Ton SOYBEANS: Stock Opening stock Ending Stock Source: S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.

31 Soybeans: Price Movements SAFEX Local prices Soybean - SAFEX Latest prices vs previous prices Future prices for: 2016/11/ /10/ /11/16 % Month % Year Price Price Price on Month on Year R/Ton R/Ton R/Ton December March Source: SAFEX

32 Soybeans: Price movements Indicative Import Parity Prices Argentinia Soybeans Up River $/t value $/t Freight rate Insurance (0.3% of ) 1.13 Cost, Insurance and Freight (cif) $/t Converted to R/t: Exhange R/$ (2016/11/15) Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) R/t Financing cost Cost, Insurance, Freight and Financing R/t Discharge cost - Durban Import tariff Free on Rail (FOR) - Durban Railage: Durban - Randfontein DELIVERED: Durban - Randfontein Delivered: Durban - Randfontein (2015/11/17) R/t

33 Soybeans: Price Movements CBOT International prices Soybean - CBOT Latest prices vs previous prices Contract: 2016/11/ /10/ /11/16 % Month % Year Price Price Price on Month on Year $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton January March Source: CBOT

34 Soybeans: SARS Prices Imports & Exports Soybean Oilcake 2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 16 SOYBEAN OILCAKE Quantity Imports (Ton) Total value of imports R'000 Value per ton R/Ton SOYBEAN OILCAKE Quantity Exports (Ton) Total value of exports R'000 Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS 2016/17 Mar - Jul 2015/ / /17 Mar - Jul 2015/ /

35 Soybeans: SARS Prices Imports & Exports Soybeans Crude Oil 2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 16 SOYBEANS CRUDE OIL Quantity Imports (Ton) Total value of imports R'000 Value per ton R/Ton SOYBEANS CRUDE OIL Quantity Exports (Ton) Total value of exports R'000 Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS 2016/17 Mar - Jul 2015/ / /17 Mar - Jul 2015/ /

36 Soybeans: SARS Prices Imports & Exports Soybeans Oil Other 2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 16 SOYBEANS OIL OTHER Quantity Imports (Ton) Total value of imports R'000 Value per ton R/Ton SOYBEANS OIL OTHER Quantity Exports (Ton) Total value of exports R'000 Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS 2016/17 Mar - Jul 2015/ / /17 Mar - Jul 2015/ /

37 Soybeans: SARS Prices Imports & Exports Cottonseed Oil Cake 2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 16 COTTONSEED OIL CAKE /17 Mar - Sep 2015/ /15 Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) R' Value per ton R/Ton COTTONSEED OIL CAKE /17 Mar - Sep 2015/ /15 Exports Total value of exports Quantity (Ton) R' Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS

38 Soybeans: SARS Prices Imports & Exports Palm Oil Other 2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 16 PALM OIL OTHER /17 Mar - Sep 2015/ /15 Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) R' Value per ton R/Ton PALM OIL OTHER /17 Mar - Sep 2015/ /15 Exports Total value of exports Quantity (Ton) R' Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS

39 Soybeans: SARS Prices Imports & Exports Palm Kernel Oil Other 2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 16 PALM KERNEL OIL - OTHER /17 Mar - Sep 2015/ /15 Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) R' Value per ton R/Ton PALM KERNEL OIL /17 Mar - Sep 2015/ /15 Exports Total value of exports Quantity (Ton) R' Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS

40 Soybeans: SARS Prices Imports per country Soybeans whether or not broken 2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 16 Imports Tariff Line Soybeans - whether or not broken - Other Country Ton value R'000 Rand/ton Austria China Ethiopia Myanmar Paraguay Suriname Taiwan, Prov of China Thailand United Kingdom Zambia Total Progressive: Mar - Sep '16 Source: SARS

41 Soybeans: SARS Prices Exports per country Soybeans whether or not broken 2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 16 Country Ton value R'000 Rand/ton Botswana Lesotho Malawi Mauritius Mozambique Swaziland Zambia Zimbabwe Total Progressive: Mar - Sep '16 Source: SARS

42 All oil cake: Price Movements ALL OIL CAKE Quantity Imports (Ton) Total value of imports R'000 Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS 2016/17 Mar - Sep 2015/ / All oil cake: Cotton seed Groundnut oil Linseed Rape or colza seeds (All) Soybean Sunflower

43 All oil: Price Movements Imports Total value of exports Value per ton Source: SARS All oil: Soybean oil (All) Groundnut oil (All) Palm oil (All) Sunflower oil (All) Palm kernel oil (All) Vegetable oil (All) ALL OIL Quantity (Ton) R'000 R/Ton 2016/17 Mar - Sep 2015/ /

44 Other

45 Price Movements Products: Year on year price changes October % Year % Year Price Price Price on Year on Year R R R Brick Margarine 500g Peanut Butter 400g Sunflower Oil 750ml Source: SA Statistics

46 Price Movements Products: prices Rand Sunflower oil 750ml Margarine Brick 500g Peanut butter 400g PRICES: OILSEEDS PRODUCTS Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16

47 Price Movements Products: Index % 300 OILSEEDS PRODUCTS INDEX % Sunflower Oil 750 ml Peanut Butter 400 gr Margarine Brick 500 gr Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

48 Sunflower & Soybean: Co-workers Sunflower: Firms registered with SAGIS Soybeans: Firms registered with SAGIS Traders % Storers % Traders % Harbour silo owners 7 6.5% Storers % Processors % Total firms: 107 Harbour silo owners % Processors % Total firms: 108

49 Acknowledgement Board of Directors Dr John Purchase Chairperson Mr Anton Nebe Vice-Chairperson The Oil and Protein Seeds Dev. Trust & Oilseeds Industry is represented by: Mr Gerhard Scholtemeijer Mr De Wet Boshoff Ms Marie vd Merwe (Alternate)

50 Acknowledgement Gratitude The following parties makes it possible to fulfil SAGIS commitments: Oilseeds Forum Advisory Committee Oil and Protein Seeds Development Trust Relevant Associations Board of Directors Co-workers Staff

51 Note: This presentation is available on SAGIS website under Presentations Thank you

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