World Agricultural Production

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 1212 World Agricultural China Corn: 2012/13 Sets New Record China s 2012/13 corn production is estimated at a record million tons, up 8.0 million or 4 percent from last month and up 8 percent from last year s record crop of million tons. Corn area is estimated at million hectares, up 0.65 million from last month and up 1.4 million from last year. The revisions are based on official data from China s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and supported by USDA analysis. Much of the area increase likely came at the expense of soybean area in Northeast China, particularly in Heilongjiang province, where farmers report that profits are considerably higher for corn than for soybeans. is estimated at a record 5.96 tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last month and up 4 percent from last year. China s corn yield has been trending upward for the past 10 years, increasing by more than 20 percent since 2003/04. Reasons for the rising yields include the introduction of hybrid seeds, better management, and strong government support (through procurement prices and subsidies) for corn farmers. Abundant rainfall benefited crops in normallydry regions of Northeast and north China, and extensive irrigation mitigated the impact of periodic drought on the North China Plain. A typhoon caused flooding and significant lodging in parts of the Northeast in August and September, but the losses were offset by higher planted area and higher yields in other areas. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, a Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

2 widespread outbreak of army worms in August that had threatened the corn crop in northern China was less serious than anticipated. (For more information, please contact Paulette Sandene at ) Australia Cotton: Lower Reduces Estimated Output The 2012/13 cotton crop is forecast at 4.0 million bales, down 0.25 million or 6 percent from last month and down 1.5 million or 27 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at million hectares, down 13 percent from last month and down 28 percent from last year. is forecast at 2,099 kilograms per hectare, up 151 kilograms from last month, and up 34 kilograms from last year. An increase this year in the share of higheryielding irrigated cotton is expected to increase overall yield. Planting of the 2012/13 Australian cotton crop is nearly complete. Estimated area is lower than last year, with dryland cotton area expected to drop by 85 per cent and irrigated cotton area expected to drop by 22 percent. Several factors have contributed to the yeartoyear decrease in area, including dry planting conditions and low world cotton prices. Relatively high prices have made sorghum an attractive alternative crop for Australian farmers. (For more information, please contact Jim Crutchfield at ) Russia Sunflowerseed: Reported Drops Sharply in the Volga District The USDA estimates Russia sunflowerseed production for 2012/13 at 7.5 million tons, up 0.8 million from last month but down 2.1 million from last year. The monthtomonth increase in output is based chiefly on harvest reports from the Ministry of Agriculture. Harvested area is estimated at 6.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and down 1.2 million hectares from last year, and yield is estimated at 1.25 tons per hectare, up 12 percent from last month but down 7 percent from last year. Planted area dropped this year by about 20 percent in both the Southern and 2

3 Volga Districts, which together accounted for 70 percent of the country s sunflower area last year. Data from Rosstat (Russia s statistical agency) indicate that in 2012 sunflowers were replaced largely by corn in the Southern District and spring barley in the Volga District. (For more information, please contact Mark Lindeman at ) Russia Corn: Record for 2012/13 The USDA forecasts Russia corn production for 2012/13 at a record 8.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 13 percent from last month and 27 percent higher than the previous record crop of 6.7 million tons harvested last year. is estimated at 4.47 tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last year and 27 percent higher than the 5year average. Reports from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that corn harvest was about 90 percent complete by November 21. Harvested area is estimated at 1.90 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 23 percent from last year. The sharp yeartoyear increase in area stems from a combination of factors, including higher domestic feedcorn consumption by the poultry sector, increased processing of valueadded products like gluten and corn syrup, and unusually high losses of 2012/13 winter crops in southern Russia. (For more information, please contact Mark Lindeman at ) Canada Corn: Record and for 2012/13 The USDA estimates 2012/13 Canada corn area at 1.42 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 16 percent from last year. is forecast at 13.1 million metric tons, up nearly 1.5 million or 13 percent from last month and up 15 percent from last year. is forecast at 9.20 tons per hectare, down 2.7 percent from last year. Record harvested area in both Ontario and Quebec coupled with higher yields in Quebec contributed to reported record corn production. Both Ontario and Quebec expanded area planted to corn by 13 and 14 percent, respectively, from a year ago because of favorably warm and dry weather 3

4 during planting. Growing conditions varied across eastern Canada throughout the season. Summer precipitation was patchy in eastern Canada. s that received adequate rainfall reported goodto aboveaverage yields. Satellitederived vegetative indices indicated aboveaverage conditions in Quebec during late summer, but mixed conditions in Ontario due to dry conditions in the south. Despite the uneven growing conditions in Ontario, producers reported record output. Statistic Canada s bulletin of Principal Field Crops November 2012 reported that Ontario corn production is up 11 percent from 2011/12 due mainly to record harvested area. Quebec, which accounts for about 22 percent of total corn output, saw a production increase of 12 percent from last year. In addition, yield increased by a reported 9.5 percent due to timely rainfall throughout the province. (For more information, please contact Arnella Trent at ) China Wheat: Higher in 2012/13 China s 2012/13 wheat output is estimated at million tons, up 2.6 million or 2 percent from last month and up 3.2 million from a year ago. The estimated area of million hectares is down slightly from both last month and last year. Estimated yield was increased this month to a record 5.0 tons per hectare, up 3 percent from a year ago. The revisions are based on the latest official data from China s National Bureau of Statistics. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, all 11 major winter wheatproducing provinces reported higher yields in 2012, the ninth consecutive year of stable or rising yields. Favorably wet planting weather, moderate winter temperatures, welltimed spring precipitation, and mostly dry harvest weather all contributed to a bumper winter wheat crop in Growing conditions for the spring wheat crop (produced in northern and western China) were also favorable this year, resulting in higher estimated spring wheat yield. (For more information, please contact Paulette Sandene at ) Australia Wheat: Subsoil Moisture Sustains Wheat Prospects Australia wheat production for 2012/13 is forecast at 22.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 5 percent from last month, and down 7.9 million or 26 percent from last year. is forecast at 13.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month and down 5 percent from last year. Periods of dryness have beleaguered the Australian wheat producing states since major sowing operations commenced in May, but sufficient subsoil moisture has sustained yield potential in some areas. 4

5 Crops have held up better than expected in many wintercrop regions, given the dry conditions experienced in the past few months. Queensland and northern New South Wales received marginal rainfall but subsoil reserves in many areas allowed crops to continue developing throughout the spring. In Western Australia, rainfall was below average during the growing season but timely September rainfall benefited yields. Harvest is mostly complete in Queensland and northern New South Wales and is underway in Western Australia, South Australia, southern New South Wales, and parts of Victoria. In southern most growing areas of Victoria, large scale harvesting is yet to begin. (For more information, please contact Jim Crutchfield at ) 5

6 World Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service / Office of Global Analysis International Assessment Division (IPAD / PECAD) Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Assessment Branch, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s InterAgency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE513), December 11, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS International Assessment Branch prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, January 11, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Metric tons to 480lb bales Cotton = MT * Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds 6

7 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis International Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Director Derrick Williams III Deputy Director Paul Provance USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Sr. Analyst/SIA Manager Curt Reynolds, PhD Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Dath Mita, PhD Sr. Agricultural Economist Vacant Program Analyst Mary Jackson GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins COUNTRY AND REGIONSPECIFIC INFORMATION South America, Argentina and Columbia Denise McWilliams, PhD Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell and North Africa Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman and other FSU12 countries Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka, Arnella Trent and Bangladesh East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene India, Pakistan and Nepal Dath Mita, PhD SubSaharan Africa, Mexico Curt Reynolds, PhD Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean Cambodia and Vietnam Brazil, Venezuela and Central America Robert Tetrault Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield Papua New Guinea and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD Iran and Syria Western United States Justin Jenkins Eastern United States Paul Provance Crop Analyst/ Vacant Global Special Projects Manager Crop Analyst Vacant

8 Table 01 World Crop Summary Million Metric Tons Commodity World Total Foreign North America United States North America Canada North America Mexico EU27 Former Soviet Russia Former Soviet Ukraine Asia (WAP) China Asia (WAP) India Asia (WAP) Asia (WAP) Asia (WAP) South America South America Brazil Selected Other Indonesia Pakistan Thailand Argentina Australia Selected Other South Africa Selected Other Turkey All Others Million metric tons Wheat nr 23.9 nr /12 prel nr 25.0 nr /13 proj. Nov nr 23.3 nr Dec nr 23.3 nr Coarse Grains 1, /12 prel. 1, /13 proj. Nov 1, Dec 1, Rice, Milled nr nr /12 prel nr nr /13 proj. Nov nr nr Dec nr nr Total Grains 2, , /12 prel. 2, , /13 proj. Nov 2, , Dec 2, , Oilseeds /12 prel /13 proj. Nov Dec Cotton nr nr nr /12 prel nr nr nr /13 proj. Nov nr nr nr Dec nr nr nr / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

9 Table 02 Wheat,, and World Change in 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan EU France Germany United Kingdom Poland Spain Italy Denmark Hungary Romania Bulgaria Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Syria North Africa Egypt Morocco Argentina Others

10 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain,, and World United States Change in 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent , , , Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina EU France Germany Poland Spain Italy Hungary United Kingdom Romania Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Africa Nigeria South Africa Ethiopia Egypt India Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Thailand Mexico Canada Australia Turkey Others ,

11 Table 04 Corn,, and World United States Change in 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina Mexico EU France Italy Hungary Romania Poland India Canada Indonesia Ukraine Serbia Egypt Philippines Vietnam Thailand Russia SubSaharan Africa South Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Zimbabwe Turkey Others

12 Table 05 Barley,, and World Change in 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Russia EU Germany France Spain United Kingdom Denmark Poland Czech Republic Finland Sweden Italy Hungary Austria Ukraine Canada Australia Turkey China Iran Morocco Kazakhstan Ethiopia Belarus India Argentina Mexico Iraq Algeria Others

13 Table 06 Oats,, and World 9.86 Change in 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Russia Canada EU Poland Finland Spain Germany Sweden United Kingdom France Italy Denmark Romania Czech Republic Hungary Austria Ireland Lithuania Australia Ukraine China Belarus Brazil Argentina Chile Norway Turkey Kazakhstan Serbia Others

14 Table 07 Rye,, and Change in 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign EU Poland Germany Spain Lithuania Latvia France Denmark Czech Republic Austria Sweden Hungary Slovakia Finland United Kingdom Romania Greece Portugal Russia Belarus Ukraine Canada Turkey Argentina Kazakhstan Australia Switzerland Others

15 Table 08 Sorghum,, and Change in 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign SubSaharan Africa Nigeria Sudan Ethiopia Burkina Tanzania Niger Uganda Mozambique Ghana South Africa South Asia India Pakistan South America Argentina Brazil Mexico China Australia Egypt EU France Italy Others

16 Table 09 Rice,, and Change in 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign East Asia China Japan Korea, South Korea, North South Asia India Bangladesh Pakistan Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Philippines Cambodia Laos Malaysia South America Brazil Peru SubSaharan Africa Nigeria Madagascar EU Italy Spain Egypt Iran Others is on a rough basis, before the milling process is on a milled basis, after the milling process

17 Table 10 Total Oilseed,, and Change in 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Total Foreign Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Palm Kernel Major OilSeeds United States Foreign Oilseeds South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia China South Asia India Pakistan EU France Germany Poland Romania Hungary United Kingdom Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Canada Africa Nigeria Southeast Asia Indonesia Australia Others World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)

18 Table 11 Soybean,, and Change in 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay East Asia China Korea, South Korea, North Japan India Canada Former Soviet Union 12 Ukraine Russia Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma EU Italy France SubSaharan Africa South Africa Nigeria Uganda Serbia Mexico Iran Others

19 Table 12 Cottonseed,, and World Change in 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan Former Soviet Union 12 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan South America Brazil Argentina Middle East Turkey Syria Iran Australia EU Greece Spain SubSaharan Africa Burkina Mali Cameroon Sudan Zimbabwe Nigeria Benin Uganda Egypt Mexico Burma Others

20 Table 13 Peanut,, and Change in 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan SubSaharan Africa Nigeria Senegal Chad Ghana Sudan Congo (Kinshasa) Burkina Guinea Cameroon Mali Malawi Cote d'ivoire Uganda Central African Republic Benin Mozambique Niger South Africa Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Vietnam Thailand South America Argentina Brazil Egypt Mexico Others

21 Table 14 Sunflowerseed,, and World Change in 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec 2011/12 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Moldova Kazakhstan South America Argentina Uruguay Bolivia China EU France Hungary Spain Italy Slovakia South Asia India Pakistan Turkey South Africa Burma Serbia Canada Australia Others