World Agricultural Production

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 615 June 2015 Agricultural Russia Wheat: Rain Boosts Winter Wheat Prospects but Delays Spring Wheat Planting USDA forecasts Russia wheat production for 2015/16 at 55.0 million tons, up 1.5 million tons from last month but down 4.1 million tons from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 25.2 million hectares against 23.6 million last year, and yield is forecast at 2.18 tons per hectare, up 2.0 percent from last month, down 13 percent from last year, and 2.3 percent above the 5year average. Winter wheat in the key Southern District benefited from precipitation in May and Approved by the Agricultural Outlook Board early June, especially in the northern half of the district where winter crops were in poor condition earlier in the spring. Crop vigor remains generally poor in the Central District, where satellitederived vegetation indices indicate that Winter wheat has not satisfactorily recovered from the severe fall dryness that hampered crop emergence and establishment. Conditions in the Volga District are mixed; in the southern territories Wintergrain conditions have shown modest improvement but are still only fair, while in the more

2 northern part of the district conditions are excellent. Winter wheat harvest typically begins in late June in the southernmost territories of European Russia. Persistently wet weather contributed to significant spring wheat planting delays in parts of the Volga and Ural Districts during the second half of April and most of May. Planting accelerated in late May following the arrival of drier weather, and by June 5 the sown area of spring wheat had reached the same level as last year, with planting complete on 97 percent of the forecast area. (For more information, please contact Mark.Lindeman@fas.usda.gov.) Ukraine Wheat: Continued Improvement During May USDA forecasts Ukraine wheat production for 2015/16 at 23.0 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month, but down 1.8 million tons from last year s bumper crop. Harvested area is estimated at 6.8 million hectares against 6.3 million hectares last year. is forecast at 3.38 tons per hectare, up 3.0 percent from last month, down 14 percent from last year, and 4.7 percent above the 5year average. Severe dryness hampered Winterwheat emergence and establishment last fall, and crop conditions were extremely poor when Winter wheat resumed vegetative growth in March. Winter wheat yield prospects improved significantly following beneficial rain in April and May although some territories still show evidence of dryness. Winter wheat accounts for over 95 percent of the country s total wheat output. Harvest will begin in late June or early July. (For more information, please contact Mark.Lindeman@fas.usda.gov.) European Union Wheat: Large Increases in France, UK, Offset Decreases in Spain and Central Europe European Union (EU) wheat production for 2015/16 is estimated at million tons, up 0.4 million tons from last month, down 5.8 million tons from last year s record, and 6.2 percent above the 5year average. is estimated at 26.5 million hectares, down 0.1 million hectares from last month and down 0.2 million from last year, but 0.4 million hectares above the 5year average. is estimated up at 5.69 tons per hectare (MT/Ha), compared to last month s 5.66 MT/Ha, and considerably above the 5.44 MT/Ha 5year average. The EU is the world s largest producer of wheat. It is grown throughout the EU so it is typically subject to a wide range of weather. Conditions in May were favorably wet in France and the United Kingdom (UK), slightly unfavorably dry in central Europe, and unfavorably hot and dry in Spain. NDVI and weather analysis, as well as positive local reports, have led to a production increase of 1.0 million tons in France and 0.5 million tons in the UK. 2

3 Dryness in central areas of Europe, particularly in Poland and Germany, has caused increased concerns, but soil moisture remains adequate for further crop growth. In May, Spain experienced very high temperatures in its south and widespread dryness throughout the country. Rainfall practically ended in April, prior to the crop s completion in most areas. While the durum crop in the southern region of Andalucía was likely spared because harvest begins in May, concerns exist for the more northern areas of Castilla La Mancha and Castilla y Leon where the crop stage was further behind. Due to a combination of yield reduction and revised area estimates from the Spanish Agricultural Ministry, production for Spain was lowered 0.6 million tons. (For more information, please contact Bryan.Purcell@fas.usda.gov) European Union Rapeseed: Crop Continues to Increase but Remains Below Last Year s Record Rapeseed production for 2015/16 in the European Union (EU) is estimated at 22.1 million, up 0.5 million tons from last month, but down 2.2 million tons from last year s record crop. is estimated unchanged from last month at 6.6 million hectares, 0.2 million hectares below last year. is estimated at 3.37 tons per hectare, up 2.1 percent from last month, but down 6.1 percent from last year s record and 7.8 percent above the 5 year average. The estimate for EU rapeseed was raised because of favorable spring weather in the major growing areas of northern Europe and minimal insect damage. Moreover, reports in the press indicate that there have been no major problems stemming from the newly enacted neonicotinoid insecticide ban within the EU. With the EU enacting this regulation, concerns were raised that with no alternative insecticide, the rapeseed crop could be 3

4 more prone to damage, but so far, the fear has not materialized. (For more information, please contact Russia Corn: Forecast at a Record USDA forecasts Russia s corn production for 2015/16 at a record 13.0 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month and up 1.7 million tons from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.7 million hectares, up from 2.6 million hectares last month and surpassing last year s record by 0.1 million hectares. The monthtomonth area increase is based on planting reports from the Ministry of Agriculture. is forecast at 4.81 tons per hectare, up 4.3 percent from last month, up 10 percent from last year, and 15 percent above the 5year average. The increased use of imported hybrid seed has contributed to a nearly 40percent increase in corn yield since 2003, when imports of seed began to rise. Imports through March are down 13 percent from the same date last year but already surpass the entire annual hybrid imports of any year prior to Planting was nearly complete as of June 5, and harvest will begin in September. (For more information, please contact Mark.Lindeman@fas.usda.gov.) Brazil Corn: 2014/15 Increased to NearRecord 81 Million Tons Due to Second Crop USDA/FAS forecasts 2014/15 Brazil corn production at 81.0 million tons, up 3.0 million tons from last month, and up 1.0 million from last year. is estimated higher at 15.3 million hectares, up 0.3 million or from last month, but down 0.5 million from last year. is forecast at a record 5.29 tons per hectare due to the increase in secondseason corn yields. Brazil s record corn production of 81.5 million tons was achieved in 2012/13. Brazil has two seasons for corn production. Firstseason corn is planted in September and harvested in March. A larger secondseason, or safrinha crop, is expected to be over 60 percent of national production. The safrinha crop is planted after the early season soybean harvest, typically in January and February. The safrinha crop is harvested in June through August and is mostly exported. Harvesting has just begun. Early expectations were that secondcorn area would decline precipitously due to low prices; however, area declined by 2 percent nationally. In Mato Grosso, however, the area increased from last year despite low prices. Mato Grosso is the largest producer, accounting for 34 percent of the safrinha crop. Planting of secondcrop corn began in February 2015 and the planted area was achieved despite the concerns due to the late harvested soybean crop. Brazil s safrinha corn yields are determined chiefly by rainfall in April and May and they received beneficial rainfall. Satellitederived vegetation indices (NDVI) for secondcrop corn are excellent in Mato Grosso; record corn yields are expected. Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul are doing very well. Indicies in Parana are similar to slightly below last year. For the last three years secondcrop corn yields have been high (5.13, 5.19 and 5.25 tons per hectare) because the rainy season extended into late May and June. This year s secondcrop corn yield is estimated at a record 5.55 tons per hectare. (For more information, please contact Robert.Tetrault@fas.usda.gov.) 4

5 Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service / International Assessment Division (IPAD / PECAD) Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s InterAgency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE542), June 10, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS International Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of Agricultural will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, July 10, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Metric tons to 480lb bales Cotton = MT * Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds 5

6 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service International Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Director Ronald Frantz Deputy Director Paul Provance USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Curt Reynolds, PhD Satellite Imagery Archives Manager Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Dath Mita, PhD Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Robert Tetrault GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins Management Analyst Rishan Chaudhry Administrative Assistant/COTR Terri Lagarde COUNTRY AND REGIONSPECIFIC INFORMATION South América, Argentina and Colombia Denise McWilliams, PhD Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell and North Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman and other FSU12 countries Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka, Arnella Trent and Bangladesh East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene India, Pakistan, and Nepal Dath Mita, PhD SubSaharan, Mexico, Curt Reynolds, PhD Nigeria and South S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean Cambodia, and Vietnam Brazil, Venezuela, Central America, Robert Tetrault Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield Papua New Guinea, and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD Iran, Syria Western United States Justin Jenkins Eastern United States Paul Provance

7 The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current Market and Trade and Agricultural Reports: Archives Market and Trade and Agricultural Reports: Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): Export Sales Report: Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): Other USDA Reports: Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): Economic Research Service: National Agricultural Statistics Service:

8 Table 01 Crop Summary Million Metric Tons Commodity Total Foreign North America United States North America Canada North America Mexico Former Soviet Russia Former Soviet Ukraine Asia (WAP) China Asia (WAP) India South America Brazil Asia (WAP) Indonesia Asia (WAP) Pakistan Asia (WAP) Thailand South America Argentina Selected Other Australia Selected Other South Selected Other Turkey All Others Million metric tons Wheat /15 prel /16 proj. May Jun Coarse Grains 1, /15 prel. 1, /16 proj. May 1, Jun 1, Rice, Milled /15 prel /16 proj. May Jun Total Grains 2, , /15 prel. 2, , /16 proj. May 2, , Jun 2, , Oilseeds /15 prel /16 proj. May Jun Cotton /15 prel /16 proj. May Jun / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

9 Table 02 Wheat,, and Change in 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union China South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Nepal Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Belarus Canada Argentina Brazil Uruguay Australia Egypt Morocco Ethiopia Algeria Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Mexico Others and Selected Countries and Regions

10 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain,, and Change in 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun MMT Percent MMT Percent , , , , United States Total Foreign China European Union Brazil Argentina Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Nigeria South Tanzania Burkina Ethiopia Egypt Mali India Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Others and Selected Countries and Regions; Coarse Grain includes: Barley, Corn, Millet, Mixed Grains, Oats, Rye and Sorghum

11 Table 04 Corn,, and Change in 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign China Brazil Argentina Bolivia European Union South Nigeria Ethiopia Egypt Tanzania Malawi Zambia Kenya Uganda Zimbabwe Former Soviet Union 12 Ukraine Russia South Asia India Pakistan Nepal Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Turkey Others and Selected Countries and Regions

12 Table 05 Barley,, and Change in 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Azerbaijan Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Ethiopia Morocco Algeria Tunisia South Argentina Uruguay Brazil India China Mexico Afghanistan Others and Selected Countries and Regions

13 Table 06 Oats,, and Change in 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Belarus Kazakhstan Canada Argentina Brazil Chile Uruguay Oceania Australia New Zealand China Algeria Morocco South Other Europe Norway Serbia Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Turkey Mexico Others and Selected Countries and Regions

14 Table 07 Rye,, and Change in 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Belarus Ukraine Kazakhstan Turkey Canada Chile Argentina Other Europe Bosnia and Herzegovina Switzerland Serbia Australia Others and Selected Countries and Regions

15 Table 08 Sorghum,, and Change in 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Nigeria Ethiopia Sudan Burkina Mali Niger Cameroon Tanzania Egypt Uganda Ghana Mozambique South Mexico Argentina Brazil South Asia India Pakistan China Australia European Union Others and Selected Countries and Regions

16 Table 09 Rice,, and and Selected Countries and Regions Change in 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign East Asia China Japan Korea, South Korea, North South Asia India Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Philippines Cambodia Laos Malaysia Brazil Peru Egypt Madagascar Nigeria European Union Iran Others is on a rough basis, before the milling process. is on a milled basis, after the milling process.

17 Table 10 Total Oilseed,, and and Selected Countries and Regions Change in 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun MMT Percent MMT Percent Total Total Foreign Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Palm Kernel Major OilSeeds United States Foreign Oilseeds Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay China South Asia India Pakistan European Union Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Canada Nigeria South Tanzania Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Australia Turkey Others Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)

18 Table 11 Soybean,, and Change in 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay East Asia China Korea, South Korea, North Japan India Canada Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine European Union Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Mexico Iran South Nigeria Zambia Uganda Middle East Iran Turkey Others and Selected Countries and Regions

19 Table 12 Cottonseed,, and Change in 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign South Asia India Pakistan China Former Soviet Union 12 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan Brazil Argentina Middle East Turkey Syria Iran Australia European Union Burkina Mali Cameroon Cote d'ivoire Benin Tanzania Egypt Nigeria Uganda Zimbabwe Sudan Mexico Burma Others and Selected Countries and Regions

20 Table 13 Peanut,, and Change in 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign China Nigeria Sudan Senegal Cameroon Ghana Chad Malawi Congo (Kinshasa) Niger Mali Uganda Burkina Guinea Egypt Central n Republic South Mozambique Cote d'ivoire Benin South Asia India Pakistan Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Vietnam Thailand Argentina Brazil Mexico Others and Selected Countries and Regions

21 Table 14 Sunflowerseed,, and Change in 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan European Union Argentina Uruguay Bolivia Brazil Paraguay China South Asia India Pakistan Middle East Turkey Iran Israel Egypt Morocco South Burma Canada Australia Others and Selected Countries and Regions

22 Table 15 Rapeseed,, and Change in 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun 2014/15 May Jun MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union Canada China South Asia India Pakistan Bangladesh Former Soviet Union 12 Ukraine Russia Belarus Australia Chile Paraguay Kazakhstan Switzerland Ethiopia Others and Selected Countries and Regions