market trends january 19, 2018

Transcription

1 For week ending January 19, 2018

2 Beef, Veal & Lamb Beef output last week rose 7.8% but was down.5% from the same week last year. The USDA is estimating winter beef production to be just 2.1% better than last year. However, much stronger annual gains are projected for the spring. Forward beef sales have been lackluster as of late. The four-week total sales for delivery at least 21 days out is the smallest since July and down slightly from a year ago. At the same time, cattle slaughter is anticipated to increase in the near term which could temper the upside in beef prices. U.S. beef exports in November were 3.7% more than the prior year and the largest for any month since the summer of China accounted for just.8% of that trade. Live Cattle (Steer) Decreasing Short Higher Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Decreasing Short Higher Ground Beef 81/19 Increasing Good Higher Ground Chuck Increasing Good Higher 109 Export Rib (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 109 Export Rib (pr) Decreasing Good Higher 112a Ribeye (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 112a Ribeye (pr) Increasing Good Higher 114a Chuck, Shlder Cld(ch) Decreasing Good Higher 116 Chuck (sel) Decreasing Good Higher 116 Chuck (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 116b Chuck Tender (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 120 Brisket (ch) Increasing Good Higher 120a Brisket (ch) Increasing Good Higher 121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) Increasing Good Higher 121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) Increasing Good Higher 121e Cap & Wedge Decreasing Good Lower 167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) Increasing Good Higher 168 Inside Round (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 169 Top Round (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 171b Outside Round (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) Decreasing Good Lower 174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) Increasing Good Higher 180 0x1 Strip (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 180 0x1 Strip (pr) Decreasing Good Higher 184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) Increasing Good Higher 184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) Steady Good Higher Top Butt, bnls (ch) Increasing Good Higher 185a Sirloin Flap (ch) Increasing Good Higher 185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) Increasing Good Lower 189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) Increasing Good Higher 189a Tender (pr, heavy) Decreasing Good Higher 193 Flank Steak (ch) Increasing Good Higher 50% Trimmings Increasing Good Higher 65% Trimmings Increasing Good Higher 75% Trimmings Decreasing Good Higher 85% Trimmings Increasing Short Higher 90% Trimmings Increasing Short Higher 90% Imported Beef (frz) Decreasing Good Higher 95% Imported Beef (frz) Decreasing Good Higher Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) Steady Good Higher Veal Top Round (cap off) Steady Good Higher 2

3 Grains Domestic winter wheat crop concerns remain. As of December 31st, just 37% of the crop in the largest producing state, Kansas, was rated in either good or excellent condition by farmers. This compares to 51% at the end of November and 44% the prior year. Still, ample world supplies may limit the near-term upside in prices. Soybeans, bushel Decreasing Good Lower Crude Soybean Oil, lb Increasing Good Lower Soybean Meal, ton Increasing Good Lower Corn, bushel Decreasing Good Lower Crude Corn Oil, lb Steady Good Lower High Fructose Corn Syrup Decreasing Good Lower Distillers Grain, Dry Increasing Good Higher Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD Increasing Good Lower HRW Wheat, bushel Increasing Good Higher DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Increasing Good Higher Durum Wheat, bushel Decreasing Short Lower Pinto Beans, lb Steady Good Lower Black Beans, lb Steady Good Lower Rice, Long Grain, lb Steady Good Higher Dairy CME butter prices have remained mostly range-bound but at historically high levels. U.S. butter exports in November were 37% larger than the previous year while imports were down 10.5%. This, and smaller carrying stocks, caused the available domestic supply during the month to be nearly 3% less than Butter consumption in the U.S. has softened with the inflated prices which suggests the upside price risk may only be modest. The CME cheese markets are on the decline with barrels falling to a one-year plus low. CME cheese barrels should find support soon. Cheese Barrels (CME) Decreasing Good Lower Cheese Blocks (CME) Decreasing Good Lower American Cheese Decreasing Good Lower Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Decreasing Good Lower Mozzarella Cheese Decreasing Good Lower Provolone Cheese Steady Good Same Parmesan Cheese Decreasing Good Lower Butter (CME) Decreasing Good Lower Nonfat Dry Milk Steady Ample Lower Whey, Dry Decreasing Good Lower Class 1 Base Steady Good Lower Class II Cream, heavy Increasing Good Lower Class III Milk (CME) Decreasing Good Lower Class IV Milk (CME) Decreasing Good Lower 3

4 Pork Pork production rose 2% last week and was 3.3% larger than last year. Increasing production capacity, however, is bringing support to hog prices. Seasonally rising demand is bringing support to some of the pork markets. However, history suggests the upside is likely limited in the near term, especially with the added production capacity. U.S. pork exports in November were 5.1% bigger than the previous year and a record for any month. The USDA is forecasting pork exports to rise 6% this year which could underpin prices. Live Hogs Increasing Ample Higher Sow Increasing Ample Higher Belly (bacon) Increasing Good Higher Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Increasing Good Higher Ham (20-23 lb) Increasing Good Higher Ham (23-27 lb) Increasing Good Higher Loin (bone in) Decreasing Good Lower Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Increasing Good Lower Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Decreasing Good Lower Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Increasing Good Higher Picnic, untrmd Decreasing Good Higher SS Picnic, smoker trm box Decreasing Good Lower 42% Trimmings Increasing Good Higher 72% Trimmings Increasing Good Higher 4

5 Poultry Chicken output for the last week of 2017 fell 13% from the previous week due to the holiday but was 3.8% larger than the same week the prior year. The six-week total of chicken production was 3.5% better than Recent data suggests that year-over-year chicken output expansion could slow in the near term. The six-week moving average for chick-placements was just 1.1% better than last year. U.S. chicken exports during November were 2.2% bigger than the previous year and the largest for the month since The USDA is forecasting chicken exports this year to rise 3% which is likely to be supportive of the leg quarter and thigh markets. Whole Birds WOG-Nat Increasing Good Higher Wings (jumbo cut) Increasing Good Lower Wing Index (ARA) Increasing Good Lower Breast, Bnless Skinless NE Increasing Good Higher Breast, Bnless Skinless SE Increasing Good Higher Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Increasing Good Higher Tenderloin Index (ARA) Increasing Good Higher Legs (whole) Increasing Good Higher Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Decreasing Good Higher Thighs, Bone In Increasing Good Higher Thighs, Boneless Increasing Good Higher Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Increasing Good Lower Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Increasing Good Same Eggs Large Eggs (dozen) Decreasing Short Higher Medium Eggs (dozen) Decreasing Short Higher Liquid Whole Eggs Decreasing Short Higher Liquid Egg Whites Steady Short Higher Liquid Egg Yolks Decreasing Short Higher Egg Breaker Stock Central Decreasing Short Higher 5

6 Seafood U.S. snow crab imports are improving. This factor and slowing demand are weighing on prices. November U.S. snow crab imports were 14.7% more than the previous year. Still, due to tight world supplies, snow crab prices are anticipated to remain above year ago levels this winter. And a small pending Newfoundland harvest could support prices later this year. Shrimp (16/20 frz) Increasing Good Higher Shrimp (61/70 frz) Decreasing Good Lower Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Decreasing Good Lower Snow Crab, frz Decreasing Good Higher Tilapia Filet, frz Decreasing Good Lower Cod Filet, frz Decreasing Good Higher Tuna Yellowfin, frsh Decreasing Good Higher Salmon Atlantic Filet, frsh Decreasing Good Lower Pollock Filet, Alaska, frz Decreasing Good Lower 6

7 Paper and Plastic Products WOOD PULP (PAPER) NBSK- Paper napkin Steady Good Higher 42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Steady Good Higher PLASTIC RESINS (PLASTIC, FOAM) PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Good Higher PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Steady Good Higher PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Steady Good Higher Retail Price Change from Prior Month Description Nov 17 Oct 17 Sept 17 Beef and Veal Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Dairy Decreasing Increasing Increasing Pork Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Chicken Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Fresh Fish and Seafood Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Various Markets Orange juice prices have fallen sharply as of late despite the hurricane damage to the Florida crop. Orange supplies from Florida are expected to fall to a 73-year low. However, lackluster orange juice demand and strong Brazilian output could temper the upside in prices. Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Steady Good Higher Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Steady Good Higher Coffee lb ICE Decreasing Good Lower Sugar lb ICE Decreasing Ample Lower Cocoa mt ICE Decreasing Short Lower Orange Juice lb ICE Increasing Good Lower Honey (clover) lb Steady Good Higher 7

8 Produce Avocado prices continue to track above the previous year levels despite relatively solid imports. Last week, avocado shipments from Mexico to the U.S. were 4.4% better than the same week a year ago. Strong avocado demand, however, is likely to support prices this winter. History suggests that the Hass 48 count avocado market should be fairly flat during the first two months of the year. Tomato supplies from Florida remain subpar, last week tracking 38% below In contrast, we are seeing good volume on vine ripe Romas out of Mexico, rounds and snacking tomato volumes are also improving. Tomato shipments should improve this winter. Lettuce, romaine and leaf items are steady, but there are quality issues. Lemons and oranges are in a very extreme market. Cilantro, broccoli, tender leaf items (baby spinach, clipped spinach, arugula and baby kale blends), and green onions are escalated and we are seeing shorter supplies. Spinach may hit a gap in supply. Strawberry and raspberry supplies have also tightened up significantly due to weather impacts, and we will need to watch closely this week to see if the fruit is further harmed in the fields. The squash market is firmer, but supplies are available. Basil and thyme supplies are ramping up as well. MARKET ALERT Arugula & Wild Arugula ESCALATED Asparagus ESCALATED Baby Kale Blends ESCALATED Berries (Blueberries, Blackberries, Raspberries, Strawberries) ESCALATED Broccoli ESCALATED Cilantro ESCALATED Green Onions ESCALATED Lemons EXTREME Mushrooms ESCALATED Oranges (Small sizes) EXTREME Spinach (Baby & Clipped) ESCALATED Tomatoes (Cherry, Grape, Roma, Round) ESCALATED (EAST ONLY) Eastern and Western Vegetables We are seeing some quality issues on vegetables in general out of the southeast this week due to last week s freeze in Florida. 8

9 Produce Apples & Pears Prices are level. Storage supplies are plentiful, with the exception of 56- thru 88-count Granny Smith apples. Newer varieties on the market include Autumn Glory, Envy, Jazz, Kanzi, Opal, Pacific Rose, and Smitten. Quality is very good: sugar levels range from 14 to 18 Brix. Pear prices are steady; storage supplies are abundant, especially 100- to 120-count sizes. Bartlett stocks will be depleted by the first week of February; several growers have already ended their seasons. Sugar levels range from 12 to 14 Brix. Artichokes Steady market with higher prices. Quality is good. Arugula Escalated Supplies are limited and we are seeing quality issues due to cooler weather. Asparagus Mexican supplies are limited, causing the market to climb. Harvesting transitions and low temperatures have reduced availability. Peruvian stocks are helping to meet demand. Avocados Prices are steady; stocks have increased in both regions. Quality ranges from good to very good: oil content is high, texture is creamy, and flavor is subtly nutty. Bananas Demand remains firm and quality is good, but we are seeing short supplies across the country and expect a shortage to continue through 2018 due to virus impacts. Beans East: Continuous limited supply from S. FL. as the region tries to make a recovery from the freeze a few weeks ago. Volume will stay sporadic for another few weeks. FOBs are up once again, but quality overall has been nice for what you can get your hands on. West: Steady volume is coming from MX with improvement on the horizon. Thus keeping prices steady into next week. Quality has been mostly good. Berries: Blackberries The market is weak; Mexican volume is high. Quality is very good; berries are plump and juicy with sweet, yet tangy flavor. Sugar levels range from 12 to 13 Brix. Blueberries Mexican prices are low; the Chilean market is steady. Overall supplies are adequate. Quality is very good: berries have deep blue, firm skins and flesh that tastes mildly sweet. Raspberries Prices are slightly higher than last week; volume has dipped, especially in California. Quality is very good: color is deep red and flavor is tangy, yet sweet. Sugar levels range from 13 to 14 Brix. Strawberries This week s California rain will limit availability. Although many California growers packed ahead in anticipation of the rain, the market is expected to rise. Florida supplies remain limited due to abnormally low temperatures. Bok Choy Quality is average and we are seeing some higher quotes on WGA cartons. Broccoli The market is holding steady at high levels. Volume is low the Arizona/California desert region as well as Mexico. Good color and occasional brown bead. Quality has improved and should continue to improve. Brussels Sprouts Markets are improving as additional inventory becomes available. Quality is good. Cantaloupe We are seeing decent volumes of offshore fruit arriving on both coasts., with fair demand fruit is on the large side mostly 9 s and very few 12 s and 15 s. The overall quality of the off shore fruit looks good with a green to cream cast and very 9

10 Produce (continued) good internal color and descent sugars. We will be in the offshore fruit through April until we start back in the desert around the first of May. Carrots Due to the heat and rain, we are seeing some quality issues and a shortage on jumbo supplies as well as tables and cellos. This market is improving, but prices are still higher. Cauliflower Prices are high; supplies are limited, but starting to increase. Celery The market is weak. Cold Florida weather is delaying harvests. Cilantro Escalated Supplies are limited and we are seeing quality issues due to cooler weather. Corn Sweet corn markets have firmed up slightly out of South Florida; we are seeing some availability crossing through Nogales. Quality is good. Cucumbers East: Still very light supplies are coming from FL, but Honduran supplies are ramping up. Volume will continue to increase in the upcoming weeks. Overall quality has been great, but some concerns in the form of shorter shelf life are evident. With FL moving out of the picture, prices are up slightly. West: Great supplies are still coming from MX with prices pushing downward a few dollars. Quality is great. English Cucumber There are excellent supplies crossing through Nogales and McAllen. Garlic Extreme We have now fully transitioned from common storage garlic to cold storage product. Fortunately to date, our recoveries are faring relatively fine through the cracking/peeling process. Concerning the future/2018 crop, we are 85% completed with our planting season. Provided the weather (and that Mother Nature cooperates), we should finish planting within the next two weeks. In the coming months, we ll hope for cold enough weather and decent rainfall (similar to last year) to help facilitate the growth of the bulbs. Ginger Chinese ginger supplies are steady. Quality is good. Grapes Market steady as we are still shipping some California fruit and should be done by mid-january, there is good volumes of Peruvian arriving on the east coast and are starting to see some better volumes arriving from Chile on both coasts. The Chilean and Peruvian fruit quality is very nice, which is a big change from last year. We are hoping that the imports this year will continue with excellent quality barring any major weather issues.. The Chilean crop is of normal volumes and the weather has been good, so we are expecting a good year. Green Cabbage Supplies have tightened and markets have firmed on both coasts, but quality remains good. Red Cabbage Quality and sizing have been great with good color. The market is firming. Green Onions Escalated Iced We are still seeing elevated prices; however, the market is beginning to improve. Eggplant East: Another active week as Plant City s crop was affected by the cold temps. Supply is expected to not turn around for another days. Quality is mostly good, but some issues have been reported. Many are going west for better supply and quality. West: Shady skies and cool weather has slowed production in Nogales, perking up the FOB s. Quality still looks great. Fennel Supplies for the week will be good and quality is good. 10

11 Produce (continued) Honeydew We are seeing some off shore and Mexico fruit here on the west and good volumes on the east as well. The Mexico volumes will be very light until around April, and will be dependent on offshore through April. The first fruit is a bit green but cuts nice and sugars are descent, We will start to see better volumes in the next few weeks, but right now fruit is on the tighter side especially on the 6 s and 8 s fruit is mostly 5 and 4 s. We will also be dependent on the offshore fruit through April, until we start back in the California desert the first of May. Jicama Prices are firming up and inventories are lighter. We are seeing some quality and shelf life issues in storage product. Kale (Green) Quality is average and supplies are fair. Kiwi California crops are now in full swing with ample supply available and showing excellent quality. This new crop will extend all the way through to February. Lemons Market very strong with excellent demand and some sizes demand exceeds supply. We are about done harvesting in Dist 3 (desert) and also going in a descent way here in dist 1 (Central Valley), we are gassing fruit in both areas and you will see some checkerboard color but for the most part quality is good, just like the oranges we will hope to see better color break here in Dist. 1 as our temperatures cool down which will promote better color break and allow for less gassing hours. The overall crop size out of dist 3 is about 20% lighter than last year and here in Dist. 1 about 15% lighter. We expect the market to stay fairly strong with lighter volumes out of both districts and with domestic and export demand very good. Lettuce: Butter Prices are stable. Quality is good. Green Leaf/Variety Leaf Prices are low. Epidermal blistering and peeling are lowering weights, as crews must trim damaged leaves. Good quality. Iceberg Prices are near the bottom; stocks are ample. Epidermal blistering and peeling are problems; growers are trimming affected leaves, reducing weights. Seeing a good amount of weak tip and tip burn. Peak brand is inconsistent. Romaine Although prices are low and stocks are ample, challenging weather has caused epidermal blistering and peeling, reducing head weights. Discolored blister will be worse in the next few days. Very little Peak. Romaine Hearts Supplies will be normal for the next few weeks. Quality has improved, as most issues with quality can be peeled off. Pricing is a wide range due to quality. Iceberg Blends Weak tip and chunks are an issue. Some lots are barely meeting specification. Chopped Romaine/Romaine Blends Some burn and discolored blister. Little Peak being packed due to blister. Arcadian Blend Very trace burn. Very nice. Limes The market is climbing; volume will decrease this week. Quality is good: blanching and scarring are slight issues. Napa Supplies are steady and quality is good. Onions The truck shortage in the Northwest is curtailing shipments, keeping onion sheds full and preventing prices from dipping. Quality ranges from good to very good. Oranges Market is very strong with excellent demand across the board. We are in full swing on our California navels and the overall quality is looking good with sugars are still around 11

12 Produce (continued) and acid levels are minimal, so fruit is eating good. We are done gassing fruit as we have had several cold nights in the high 20 s which really helped bring on color and firm up the fruit. We have had rain the last 2 days which is desperately needed, but it will keep us out of the field so picking will probably not resume until Friday which could cause some supply issues, but will advise if issues with your orders at time of loading. The overall crop is about 15-20% lighter than normal, therefore smaller fruit will become very tight by the first of the year and it will be a battle through the year on 88 s and smaller as most blocks right now are peaking on 72 s followed by 88 s. We will keep you posted going forward. Parsley (Curly, Italian) Quality and supplies are fair. Green Bell Pepper East: As suspected, the freeze made a large impact in the Florida area. Plant City is mostly out of the picture, pushing demand to South Florida only. Cold temperatures limit growth, putting upward pressure on prices. Look for a price increase on all sizes, with smalls being the most readily available. Quality is still good despite the weather. West: Both Sinaloa and Sonora are producing great volume. Some quality issues have been reported from Sonora, however, Sinaloa is showing excellent quality. FOBs are slightly down. Jalapeño Pepper East: Scattered supplies from FL are available with Plant City being out of the picture. Prices are up due to limited volume, however quality is still nice. West: Great supplies coming from both Sonora & Sinaloa. Some quality issues are reported from the weak and tired plants in Sonora. Prices remain low with promotable volume available. strengthen, as February is Potato Lover s Month. Expect higher prices by early February. Rapini Supplies have improved and markets are down. Quality is average. Radishes Quality is good and supply is slowing down. Expect to see stronger markets through the summer. Salad Blends The market is unchanged; supplies are sufficient. Quality is average. Inspectors are vigilantly monitoring core material/ seeder and internal burn problems for the best packs. Snow and Sugar Snap Peas Snow and sugar snap peas supplies are improving through Miami. Spinach (Bunched) Watchlist Supplies are light and quality is fair. The colder nights and warm days have prohibited the growth of this item. Supplies are expected to improve as the weather warms up. Spinach (Baby) Escalated Baby and clipped spinach supplies are low. We are seeing average to poor quality. Spring Mix The market is level; stocks are adequate. Quality is good: early breakdown and mildew are minor problems. Red & Yellow Bell Pepper The market has stabilized. Florida supplies are limited due to cold weather; demand is strong in Mexico. Quality is good: discoloration, odd shape, and occasional scarring are slight problems in Florida. Pineapple The market is unchanged; volume is high. Quality is average: fruit is juicy and tangy, yet sweet. Sugar levels range from 13 to 16 Brix. Idaho Potatoes The market is level, but poised to rise. The truck shortage is curtailing shipments, keeping sheds full. Demand will 12

13 Produce (continued) Yellow Squash / Zucchini East: Yield reductions for at least 2 weeks will be in place due to the cold weather. Plant City s crop is a wrap from the freeze putting the ball in the offshore market & S. FL s court. Prices are up. Quality has been questionable the last few weeks. Zucchini is seeing some trouble with light scarring while yellow has had quite a bit. We are still seeing some of this coming from the field. Better quality is demanding a higher price point. West: Overcast skies slowing down the growth cycle and quality concerns have troubled MX s crop recently. Prices are mostly steady, however, better quality is demanding a higher price point. Problems are reported mostly on yellow, however, zucchini is also seeing some issues now. Tomatoes East Rounds Cooler temperatures are keeping our Immokalee, FL crop from reaching optimal levels at a faster rate, however, there is still plenty of fruit to be had. Last week was a close call to hard freeze temperatures, but luckily, light winds kept the frost away. Once temperatures warm up, normal volumes are expected to resume. Ruskin is pushing through their 3rd and 4th pickings and will be wrapping up soon. FOBs for all sizes are down significantly as more supply comes to the market place. Quality and size availability is excellent. truck to pick it up. There is great availability of all sizes. FOBs are down once again and quality is excellent. Romas Another dip in prices for romas moving into next week as western Mexico pushes more volume through borders. Good supply and great quality is expected to remain through January. Grapes With a nice run in weather, grape FOBs take another plunge. Supplies are expected to stabilize in the next 2-3 weeks as fields go back to normal after the cold snap. Quality is excellent. Cherries Great volume is coming from Nogales pushing FOBs down. Quality is excellent. Watermelon The market is inching down; volume is rising. Quality is good: minor problems include under ripeness, thick green/white rinds, and light-colored flesh. Romas Finally a little relief is showing the roma marketplace. Production is still behind rounds by about 2-3 weeks, but is improving despite the cold snap. FOBs are down with great sizing and quality available. Grapes Much needed relief after the cold weather is in sight. Grapes are still about a week behind schedule, however, enough supply has been harvested to reflect a decrease in pricing on both bulk and pints. As temperatures warm up, normal volumes are expected to resume in about 7-10 days. Quality is excellent. Cherries Great supply is resulting in a decline in FOBs. Quality is excellent. West/Mexico Rounds Baja is just about wrapped up with only a handful of growers still moving product. Culiacan is still building momentum and better supplies are more growers come on board. Plenty of product is crossing, but the new predicament is finding a 13