World Agricultural Production

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 5-16 May 2016 World Agricultural Argentina Soybeans: Estimated Reduced Due to Rain Argentina soybean production for is estimated at 56.5 million tons, down 4.2 percent from last month and down 8.0 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 19.4 million hectares, down 1.5 percent from last month but 0.3 percent more than last year. is estimated at 2.91 tons per hectare, down 2.7 percent from last month and 8.4 percent less than last year. Nineteen days of downpours in the first three weeks of April interrupted harvest in areas of Santa Fe, Entre Ríos, Córdoba, and Buenos Aires. Farmers had to wait for fields to slowly dry as an early cold front ended the rainy period. Harvest is over 24 percent complete but behind last year s pace of 60 percent. Localized heavy rain and flooding has decreased estimated harvest area and likely lowered potential yields in Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Ríos. (For more information, please contact Denise.McWilliams@fas.usda.gov.) Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

2 India Soybeans: 2016/17 Expected to Rebound from Last Year USDA forecasts India soybean production for 2016/17 at million tons, up 58 percent from last year. The increase is based on the assumption of normal yields. is forecast at 0.97 tons per hectare, up nearly 50 percent from last year and up 5.0 percent from the 5-year average. Harvested area is forecast at 12.0 million hectares, up 5.3 percent from last year. Poor growing conditions in resulted in historic low yields in the soybean producing areas. The summer monsoon ended a month earlier than normal for the majority of the soybean area and rainfall throughout the growing season was characterized as uneven and sporadic. Madhya Pradesh, the largest producer, experienced excessive rainfall and pest issues throughout the growing season which resulted in significant crop losses. However, dry weather in Maharashtra and Rajasthan caused crop losses in these districts. India s summer monsoon season begins in June and ends in September. Soybean planting usually coincides with the beginning of the summer monsoon in June and ends in July. Harvest typically begins in September and lasts until November. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.) Brazil Soybeans: Dry Conditions for Soybean in the Northeast Brazil soybean production for is estimated at 99.0 million tons compared to million last month. The decrease is attributed mainly due to dryness in the eastern and northeastern regions. The harvested area estimate of 33.3 million hectares is slightly up from last year s level of 32.1 million hectares. is estimated at 2.97 tons per hectare, 1.9 percent below last year and 1.4 percent above the 5-year average. Localized dry weather from early to mid-december reduced soybean yields in the southern and eastern areas of Mato Grosso. The weather has been drier than normal throughout the entire growing season in the northeastern region and has had a significant negative impact on yield, especially for the state of Bahia. Harvest is nearly complete and will be finished when field operations wrap up in Rio Grande Do Sul. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov.) Brazil Corn: Second Corn Estimate Reduced Due to Dryness Brazil corn production for is estimated at 81.0 million tons compared to 84.0 million last month. The harvested area estimate of 16.0 million hectares is down 0.2 million from last month but is slightly up from last year s 15.8 million hectares. is estimated at 5.06 tons per hectare, 6.2 percent below last year and 2.8 percent above the 5-year average. The estimate was lowered due to dryness across the eastern states of Tocantins, Bahia, Goias, Minas Gerais, and Sao Paulo. Mato Grosso, which produces 36 percent of the second crop, has been only moderately impacted from below normal precipitation in the eastern and southern areas. The weather has been drier than normal for the entire growing season in the northeastern region. This has had a negative impact on second-crop corn as this crop needs precipitation to extend into late May to reach its full potential. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov.) 2

3 South Africa: 2016/17 Corn and Expected to Increase South Africa s corn production for 2016/17 is forecast at 13.0 million tons, up 6.5 million or 100 percent from last year s drought-reduced crop and up 1.6 million from the 5-year average. Harvested area is forecast at 3.2 million hectares, up 1.3 million or 68 percent from last year. Low stocks and record high white-corn prices should encourage farmers to plant more corn. Corn area for fell short of planting intentions because the lack of rainfall during the optimal planting window from October through December prevented planting and hampered emergence. The corn planting season in South Africa starts in the eastern portion of the corn belt in early October and ends in the west during early January. The 2016/17 forecast yield of 4.06 tons per hectare is equal to the 10-year trend and slightly above the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact Curt.Reynolds@fas.usda.gov.) Argentina Corn: Record Crop Forecast for 2016/17 Argentina corn production for 2016/17 is forecast at a record 34.0 million tons, up 7.0 million tons from last year. is forecast at 4.2 million hectares, 24 percent higher than last year. The forecast yield of 8.10 tons per hectare is 1.9 percent above last year. Export taxes were removed for most crops in December 2015 increasing profitability. Corn returns within Argentina are expected to remain high based on the recent tax policy changes, elimination of crop export restrictions, and strong devaluation of the Argentine peso. (For more information, please contact Denise.Mcwiliams@fas.usda.gov.) China Corn: Policy Changes Affect 2016/17 China s 2016/17 corn production is forecast at million tons, down 6.6 million or 2.9 percent from last year s record crop. is estimated at 36.0 million hectares, down 2.1 million or 5.6 percent from last year s record area and the first decline since Farmers are expected to reduce corn area in 2016 in response to policy changes and lower prices. is forecast at a record 6.06 tons per hectare, up 2.8 percent from last year and equal to the 10-year trend. The 2016/17 planting season began in April and is reportedly progressing smoothly in the Northeast and the North China Plain, which account for about 40 percent and 35 percent of total sown area, respectively. Widespread rainfall and seasonable temperatures have been suitable for planting and emergence in the Northeast, while conditions on the North China Plain have 3

4 been warmer and drier than normal in recent weeks. The majority of the North China Plain corn crop will be planted in June following the winter-wheat harvest. In recent months the Chinese government has enacted a series of price and policy reforms in an effort to reduce its massive and costly corn stocks, which it had accumulated over several years. In September 2015, the government announced that it would lower the procurement price for the corn crop by about 10 percent. In March 2016 the government terminated the corn procurement program in the Northeast (the most important corn-producing region), replacing it with market-oriented subsidies and programs that are still under development. These changes have resulted in lower expected returns for the crop and lower expected profits for 2016/17. Farmers in the Northeast have expressed a strong interest in switching from corn to soybeans or other crops that may offer higher returns. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture has begun promoting a crop reallocation plan that would shift more than 3 million hectares of corn area (primarily in low-yielding regions) to alternative crops such as soybeans, potatoes, spring wheat, oilseeds, forage crops, or conservation purposes. (For more information, contact Dath.Mita@fas.usda.gov.) Morocco Wheat: Drought Diminishes 2016/17 Crop Prospects USDA estimates 2016/17 Morocco wheat production at 2.6 million tons, 68 percent below the record of 8.0 million tons, and 57 percent below the 5-year average. is estimated at 2.1 million hectares, down 34 percent from last year and down 33 percent from the 5-year average. is estimated at 1.24 tons per hectare, 50 percent below the last year record, and 35 percent below the 5-year average. Morocco is the largest wheat producer in northwest Africa. Typically, it accounts for one-half to two-thirds of northwest Africa s total wheat production. in northwest Africa is rarely predictable because rainfall is highly variable. In Morocco, wheat output can fluctuate between 4.0 million tons and 8.0 million tons. Very little wheat is irrigated. The wheat crop in Morocco is one of the first to be harvested in the Northern Hemisphere, with southern regions of the country harvesting in May and northern areas finishing in June. The mild climate of coastal North Africa has a long planting window, allowing farmers 4

5 to plant wheat into January. Autumn rains are critical for planting and emergence. During the 2015 fall, autumn rainfall was nearly non-existent from the beginning of November until middle February. By February, seasonal rainfall was only 20 to 40 percent of normal. Precipitation increased in mid-february but arrived too late to benefit any recent plantings or emerging plants. Typically, about 40 percent of Morocco s wheat is durum. (For more information, contact Bryan.Purcell@fas.usda.gov.) EU Wheat: Bumper Crop Expected for 2016/17 USDA estimates European Union (EU) wheat production at million tons, 3.5 million below the record of million tons, but 6.7 percent above the 5-year average of million. is estimated at 26.8 million hectares, nearly the same as last year, but 2.2 percent above the 5-year average. is estimated at 5.84 tons per hectare, 2.4 percent below last year s record, but above the 5-year average. The EU is the world s largest wheat producer and approximately 90 percent of the EU crop is winter wheat. Since planting last autumn, growing conditions across the continent have been outstanding. Abundant rainfall and mild temperatures are expected to result in the EU s third consecutive bumper crop. Specifically, Spain s weather rebounded from last year s drought with significantly more rainfall than last season. Conditions in the Balkan countries of Romania and Bulgaria have been nearly ideal. While a very mild winter prevented widespread winterkill, a cold snap likely damaged plants in snow-free areas of Poland, eastern Germany, and the Baltics. In addition, dryness during the fall in Poland and Germany likely reduced plantings in those regions. France, EU s largest wheat producer, is estimated to produce 41.5 million tons (42.8 million last year), while Germany is estimated at 26.5 million (26.6 million), the United Kingdom (UK) at 14.9 million (16.4 million) and Poland at 10.6 million (11.0 million). Final yield will hinge largely on May and June weather. (For more information, please contact Bryan.Purcell@fas.usda.gov.) 5

6 Russia Wheat: Excellent Conditions for 2016/17 Wheat in the Southern District Russia wheat production for 2016/17 is forecast at a near-record 63.0 million tons compared to 61.0 million for. The estimate is based chiefly on outstanding early-season conditions in the Southern District and North Caucasus District, which together produce about 40 percent of the country s total wheat output. The harvested area estimate of 25.5 million hectares is only 0.1 million below last year s level, with a slight increase in winter wheat area offsetting a slight drop in spring wheat area. is forecast at 2.47 tons per hectare, 3.4 percent above last year and 11 percent above the 5-year average. Winter wheat, which is grown mainly in European Russia, accounts for about 50 percent of Russia s total wheat area and 70 percent of the country s total wheat production due to its higher yield. Persistently dry autumn weather hampered winter-crop establishment in the Central and Volga Districts. Abundant spring rainfall has essentially erased moisture deficits and above-average temperatures enabled crops to resume vegetative growth earlier than usual and compensate for the poor start. The harvest of winter wheat will begin in late June. Spring wheat planting is underway in the major production zones, including the Siberian, Volga, and Ural Districts. (For more information, contact Mark.Lindeman@fas.usda.gov.) Ukraine Wheat: 2016/17 Wheat Rebounds from Poor Fall Establishment Ukraine wheat production for 2016/17 is forecast at 24.0 million tons compared to 27.3 million for. Although severely dry autumn weather hampered the sowing campaign and reduced the fall-sown area of winter wheat by about 11 percent from the level, the crop has since benefited from generous precipitation and warm spring weather, and losses related to the fall drought are forecast to be low. Harvested area is estimated at 6.4 million hectares against 7.1 million last year. is forecast at 3.75 tons per hectare, down 2.1 percent from last year s near-record and surpassing the 5-year average by 8.3 percent. will depend on favorable rains in May and June. Winter wheat comprises about 97 percent of the country s total wheat output, and harvest will begin in late June. All USDA crop production forecasts for Ukraine include estimated output from Crimea. (For more information, please contact Mark.Lindeman@fas.usda.gov.) Indonesia Palm Oil: Record Forecast for 2016/17 6

7 Indonesia s 2016/17 palm oil production is estimated at a record 35.0 million tons, up 6.1 percent from last year. Mature oil palm area is also estimated at a record 9.2 million hectares, up 235,000 hectares or 2.6 percent from last year. is estimated at 3.80 tons per hectare, up 3.4 percent from last year as a more normal rainfall pattern is Map of Indonesia Palm Oil expected, enabling trees to recover from El Niño-related drought stress. There is approximately 1.7 million hectares of immature oil palm area, which should provide near-normal annual growth for at least the next three to four years. The rate of new plantings, however, has reportedly begun to decline during the past two years, as new regulatory hurdles and drought affected planters ability to expand. (For more information, please contact Michael.Shean@fas.usda.gov.) 7

8 World Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service / International Assessment Division (IPAD / PECAD) Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-553), May 10, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS International Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, June 10, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Metric tons to 480-lb bales Cotton = MT * Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds 8

9 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service International Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Director Ronald Frantz Deputy Director Robert Tetrault Administrative Assistant Shelisa Johnson USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Sr. Analyst/Satellite Imagery Curt Reynolds, Ph.D Archives Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/ Technical Lead Dath Mita, Ph.D Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Vacant GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION South America, Argentina, Venezuela, Denise McWilliams, Ph.D and Colombia Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell and North Africa Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman and other FSU-12 countries Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka, Arnella Trent and Bangladesh East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene India, Pakistan, and Nepal Dath Mita, Ph.D Sub-Saharan Africa, Curt Reynolds, Ph.D Nigeria, and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean Cambodia, and Vietnam Central America, Mexico, Justin Jenkins and Western United States Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield Papua New Guinea and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, Ph.D Iran, Syria, and Brazil Eastern United States Robert Tetrault

10 The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Reports: Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Reports: Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): EU Countries & Estimates Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): Export Sales Report: Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): Economic Research Service: National Agricultural Statistics Service:

11 Table 01 World Crop Summary Million Metric Tons Commodity World - - Total Foreign - North America United States North America Canada - North America Mexico - Former Soviet Russia - Former Soviet Ukraine - Asia (WAP) China - Asia (WAP) India - South America Brazil - Asia (WAP) Indonesia Asia (WAP) Pakistan Asia (WAP) Thailand South America Argentina Selected Other Australia Selected Other South Africa Selected Other Turkey - All Others Million metric tons--- Wheat prel /17 proj. May Coarse Grains 1, prel. 1, /17 proj. May 1, Rice, Milled prel /17 proj. May Total Grains 2, , prel. 2, , /17 proj. May 2, , Oilseeds prel /17 proj. May Cotton prel /17 proj. May / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

12 Table 02 Wheat,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in May May May MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union China South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Nepal Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Belarus Canada South America Argentina Brazil Uruguay Australia Africa Egypt Morocco Ethiopia Algeria Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Mexico Others

13 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in May May May MMT Percent MMT Percent World , , , United States Total Foreign China European Union South America Brazil Argentina Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Africa Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Burkina Ethiopia Egypt Mali India Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Others ; Coarse Grain includes: Barley, Corn, Millet, Mixed Grains, Oats, Rye and Sorghum

14 Table 04 Corn,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in May May May MMT Percent MMT Percent World , , United States Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina Bolivia European Union Africa South Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Egypt Tanzania Malawi Zambia Kenya Uganda Zimbabwe Former Soviet Union - 12 Ukraine Russia South Asia India Pakistan Nepal Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Turkey Others

15 Table 05 Barley,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in May May May MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Azerbaijan Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Africa Ethiopia Morocco Algeria Tunisia South Africa South America Argentina Uruguay Brazil India China Mexico Afghanistan Others

16 Table 06 Oats,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in May May May MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Belarus Kazakhstan Canada South America Argentina Brazil Chile Uruguay Oceania Australia New Zealand China Africa Algeria Morocco South Africa Other Europe Norway Serbia Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Turkey Mexico Others

17 Table 07 Rye,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in May May May MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Belarus Ukraine Kazakhstan Turkey Canada South America Chile Argentina Other Europe Bosnia and Herzegovina Switzerland Serbia Australia Others

18 Table 08 Sorghum,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in May May May MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Sudan Burkina Mali Niger Cameroon Tanzania Egypt Uganda Ghana Mozambique South Africa Mexico South America Argentina Brazil South Asia India Pakistan China Australia European Union Others

19 Table 09 Rice,, and Change in (Metric tons per hectare) May May May MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign East Asia China Japan Korea, South Korea, North South Asia India Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Philippines Cambodia Laos Malaysia South America Brazil Peru Africa Egypt Madagascar Nigeria European Union Iran Others is on a rough basis, before the milling process. is on a milled basis, after the milling process.

20 Table 10 Total Oilseed,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in May May May MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Total Foreign Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Palm Kernel Major OilSeeds United States Foreign Oilseeds South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay China South Asia India Pakistan European Union Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Canada Africa Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Australia Turkey Others World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)

21 Table 11 Soybean,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in May May May MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay East Asia China Korea, South Korea, North Japan India Canada Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine European Union Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Mexico Iran Africa South Africa Nigeria Zambia Uganda Middle East Iran Turkey Others

22 Table 12 Cottonseed,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in May May May MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign South Asia India Pakistan China Former Soviet Union - 12 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan South America Brazil Argentina Middle East Turkey Syria Iran Australia European Union Africa Burkina Mali Cameroon Cote d'ivoire Benin Tanzania Egypt Nigeria Uganda Zimbabwe Sudan Mexico Burma Others

23 Table 13 Peanut,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in May May May MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign China Africa Nigeria Sudan Senegal Cameroon Ghana Chad Malawi Congo (Kinshasa) Niger Mali Uganda Burkina Guinea Egypt Central African Republic South Africa Mozambique Cote d'ivoire Benin South Asia India Pakistan Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Vietnam Thailand South America Argentina Brazil Mexico Others

24 Table 14 Sunflowerseed,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in May May May MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan European Union South America Argentina Uruguay Bolivia Brazil Paraguay China South Asia India Pakistan Middle East Turkey Iran Israel Africa Egypt Morocco South Africa Burma Canada Australia Others

25 Table 15 Rapeseed,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in May May May MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union Canada China South Asia India Pakistan Bangladesh Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Belarus Kazakhstan Australia South America Chile Paraguay Switzerland Ethiopia Others

26 Table 16 Copra, Palm Kernel, and Palm Oil Change in Prel. 2016/17 Proj. From last month From last year May MMT Percent MMT Percent Oilseed, Copra Philippines Indonesia India Vietnam Mexico Papua New Guinea Thailand Sri Lanka Solomon Islands Cote d'ivoire World Oilseed, Palm Kernel Indonesia Malaysia Nigeria Thailand Colombia Papua New Guinea Honduras Cameroon Ghana Ecuador World Oil, Palm Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Colombia Nigeria Papua New Guinea Ecuador Ghana Honduras Guatemala World