PTNPA Other Nut Report. Bobby Tankersley JOHN B. SANFILIPPO & SON

Transcription

1 PTNPA Other Nut Report Bobby Tankersley JOHN B. SANFILIPPO & SON

2 Trends The World is Flat Rising commodity prices Currency impact Increasing export demand - CHINA Food safety risk Rising cost of production Health and wellness

3 Estimated Share of 2008 World Tree Nut Production Brazils, 2% Pecans, 4% Macs, 1% Pistachios, 8% Almonds, 29% Filberts, 16% Walnuts, 18% Cashews, 22%

4 per pound Consolidated Pricing Trend

5 per pound Effect of Currency on Nut Costs

6 Percentage of Crops Exported 100% 90% 80% 2003 Crop 2008 Crop 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Almonds Walnuts Pecans Pistachios

7 Inshell Exports to China

8 % of 2009 Crop Sold to China

9 Almonds

10 Almond Crop Receipts thru Jan 1.36 bil lbs vs CASS est of 1.35 bil Thru Jan, only 30% of total almond supply remains uncommitted (vs 38% same period last year) Some Cal sizes (27/30) are scarce Spot prices are $ above opening levels (70-100% increase)

11 World Almond Supply 2500 U.S. Carry-in Other Crop U.S. Crop F

12 U.S. Almond Supply & Consumption Total U. S. Supply Inedible Exports Domestic Consumption Millions of kernel pounds F Crop Year

13 Almond Bearing Acreage 900, , , , , , , , ,000 - Acres F 2010F 2011F Non-bearing Bearing

14 Almond Summary Shipments thru Jan 21% above last year with supply only 4% above last year Rain and cold weather prior to bloom has been favorable for 2010 crop development Early new crop prices $1.10 above same time last year Barring negative bloom event, 2010 crop should set new record

15 Walnuts

16 Walnut Crop CASS final harvest for 2009 crop was 436 thousand inshell tons Heavy rains during harvest resulted in crop loss and increased mold levels in varieties that produce light grade

17 U.S. Walnut Supply & Consumption Supply Consumption 450 Thousands of Tons Inshell F Crop Year

18 Walnut Summary Shipments through Jan were 58% above last year with supply only 6% above last year Heavy demand from China and Turkey for inshell varieties that produce light grade

19 Cashews

20 Cashew Crop Shorter than expected crops in Viet Nam and Brazil triggered defaults and drove prices up last year Prices have recently moderated due to buyer resistance and anticipation of good crop in Vietnam

21 World Cashew Crops by Origin W. Africa 22% Other 4% India 27% E. Africa 9% Vietnam 22% Brazil 16%

22 World Cashew Crops In 100M Metric Tons F

23 Cashew Summary India has grown into a major consuming nation (second only to the US) US snack consumption declined due to last year s high prices Long term world supply stable with slightly larger crops expected

24 Macadamias

25 Macadamia Crop Rain during Australian harvest resulted in significant crop loss after early contracts had been made Strong currency in Australia and South Africa translates into low prices to growers

26 World Macadamia Crops Millions of shelled pounds Other Brazil Guatem ala Kenya Costa Rica South Africa Australia U S F Source : USDA

27 Macadamia Summary Inshell demand from China will continue to drive up field prices in Kenya, S. Africa, Malawi and Australia Hawaiian acreage will continue to shrink as field prices remain below cost of production Dollar weak against all origins

28 Pistachios

29 Pistachio Crop US Crop estimate reduced by 21% from 450 mil to 354 mil lbs High percentage of blanks responsible for big miss on crop estimate Lingering impact of freeze damage hurt crop in Iran

30 World Pistachio Crops by Origin

31 World Pistachio Crops Millions of inshell pounds

32 U.S. Pistachio Supply & Consumption

33 U.S. Pistachio Acreage Non-bearing Bearing 120 Thousands of acres

34 Pistachio Summary Impact of Salmonella recall on U.S. consumption was significant in 2009 but has recovered Strong export demand will keep prices firm Low carryover going into typical short crop

35 Hazelnuts

36 Hazelnut Crop 2009 Turkish crop slightly smaller than last year Turkish government continues to prop up market by holding inventory from 2008 & 2007 crops (equal to entire 2009 crop) Prices remain firm due to strong demand and supply restrictions

37 World Hazelnut Crops by Origin Spain 3% Italy 12% Other 6% US 4% Turkey 75%

38 World Hazelnut Crops ,000 tonnes F

39 Hazelnut Summary China bought 63% of entire Oregon filbert crop Turkish economic and political conditions will make continued price supports difficult Buyers anticipate softer prices when(if) Turkey releases goods into the market

40 Nut Price Comparison Feb 2009 Fcy JM Hlvs $3.50 Light H&P $1.90 Cal SSR $1.50 Pist kernels $5.75 Style IV $ cashews $3.10

41 Nut Price Comparison Feb 2009 Feb 2010 Fcy JM Hlvs $3.50 $5.00 Light H&P $1.90 $4.00 Cal SSR $1.50 $2.60 Pist kernels $5.75 $7.50 Style IV $3.00 $ cashews $3.10 $2.85

42 Nut Price Comparison Feb 2009 Feb 2010 Fcy JM Hlvs $3.50 $ % Light H&P $1.90 $ % Cal SSR $1.50 $ % Pist kernels $5.75 $ % Style IV $3.00 $ % 320 cashews $3.10 $2.85-8%