Export Essentials Pulse Trade Data

Transcription

1 Export Essentials Pulse Trade Data North America and Australia Q1 2013

2 Introduction There are many ways of telling stories. Words and pictures are the most common and easiest to understand. Our Export Essentials series tells stories with data. Unfortunately, not everyone can look at a table of numbers and read the story written there. Working on the Export Essentials series and always thinking about how to make them more visible has resulted in some changes to way we are displaying data. The main change is that in larger export tables the top five destinations are shown at the beginning. The table shows the subtotal and what percent they represent of total shipments. For most commodities, this makes it easier to focus on the key countries which have the biggest impact on demand. It is also much easier to see how demand from one country can plunge, yet be offset by increased demand from another. This makes it easier to understand overall market conditions, especially when change involves destinations where you do not normally do business. There are usability problems with large sets of data. If the typeface is too small and data is shown as black ink on a white background, it is almost impossible to see what is happening without a ruler and something to hold the book flat. We chose a typeface and size that makes the numbers easy to read for most people. We replaced the ruler with color. Each row is highlighted with alternating light and darker colors. This makes it harder to lose your place when scanning across several columns of data. Another usability issue is the choice between showing the most important destinations first or keeping them in alphabetical order. It is easier to find a country in a long list if it is alphabetical. Countries are ordered alphabetically by region. This fits well with the decision to display the top five destinations when that makes it easier to focus on the most important destinations. The goal is to make it easier for busy people to use this book and to find needed information in Review This edition of Export Essentials contains a review of the 2012 calendar year. Instead of showing trade data on a marketing year basis, it is quarterly by calendar year. No more than 20 destinations are shown in each table. These are the most important destinations during the fourth quarter of These two choices make it much easier to see changes in demand dynamics. Scanning through the previous quarters often shows relative changes in the importance of major destinations. For example, scanning the table for all lentil exports from Canada shows that Turkey was the most important destination in the fourth quarter of 2011 and first quarter of But, India became the most important

3 destination after the second quarter of Dig deeper and look at the individual tables for green and red lentil exports from Canada, where India leaps out as the dominant buyer of red lentils during the last half of The picture for green lentils is mixed, with India being a big destination in the third quarter, while Spain was the most important in the fourth. Comparing data from the quarterly tables with the marketing year tables tells more about how demand and trade evolved in recent months. The marketing year tables show how demand changes from one season to the next, as well as comparing the season to date totals for the current marketing year with the same period during the previous marketing year. This is especially true when looking at the top five destinations in the marketing year tables. Continuing with lentils as an example, Turkey leaps off the page as the most important destination during the and marketing years. But during the marketing year, shipments to Turkey fell sharply between August and January. However, the drop was more than made up for by soaring demand from India. Only by looking at the quarterly tables is it possible to see that it was during the second quarter of 2012 that everything changed. Two things happened. The full impact of the economic crisis in the Middle East and Europe swept through pulse and specialty crop markets during the last quarter of 2011 and first quarter of That had a major impact on sales to Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. At the same time, however, problems with rabi season crops on the Indian subcontinent helped boost demand for all pulses to cover the shortfall. Those problems were compounded by a disappointing kharif crop. That combination of factors helped drive the shift in demand from the major buyers that took place in It is often said that history informs the future. Seeing the changes that have taken place in quarterly trade flows throughout 2012, and thinking about the key events that happened during the year makes it easier to come up with a broad feeling for the effect current events will have on future trade patterns. Since agriculture is one of the most dynamic industries in the world, it is more important to anticipate what could happen by drawing on past experience. This edition s review of 2012 combines nicely with the regular marketing year tables to help you find your way through the coming weeks of rapidly changing market fundamentals. 11

4 Canadian Specialty Grain Export Summary 2013, Jan (metric tons) Crop Year Period Aug-Jul Aug-Jul Aug-Jan Aug-Jan Jan Whole & Split Pea 3,015,567 2,098,929 1,334,066 1,261, ,809 Lentil 1,105,970 1,148, , ,391 81,539 Chickpea 87,221 38,154 25,323 37,209 5,798 Kidney & Navy Bean 112, ,138 50,476 55,774 10,860 Small Red Bean 16,502 14,465 6,351 5, Mung Bean 2,481 2,278 1,293 1, Fababean 2,620 2, , Bean (nes) 106, ,445 50,757 94,346 16,971 Canaryseed 178, ,385 65,987 59,421 6,604 Millet 3,427 4,787 2,131 2, Buckwheat 2,345 4,036 3,003 2, Mustard Seed 123, ,186 57,904 57,666 9,382 Sunflower 45,704 33,343 18,635 17,534 2,810 Canola 7,206,531 8,695,179 4,909,886 4,107, ,110 Linseed (flax) 404, , , ,596 42,084 Soybean 2,800,020 3,607,110 1,982,163 2,682, ,941 Safflower Seed Coriander Seed 5,272 4,577 1,736 1, Cumin Seed Caraway Seed Source Statistics Canada

5 U.S. Specialty Grain Export Summary 2013, Jan (metric tons) Crop Year Period Sep-Aug Sep-Aug Sep-Jan Sep-Jan Jan Pinto Bean 79, ,330 32,260 51,669 7,333 Black Bean 106,879 65,575 46,304 22,781 3,616 Pea Bean 89, ,382 51,594 54,399 3,621 Great Northern Bean 13,058 20,486 4,916 17,274 7,354 Dark Red Kidney Bean Light Red Kidney Bean 11,698 16,975 4,524 9,454 2,939 5,113 5,702 2,704 1, Kidney (nes) 23,282 37,242 9,035 23,252 3,345 Small Red Bean 9,010 8,888 4,143 3, Pink Bean 540 1, Mung Bean 3,978 11,034 2,293 3,876 1,350 Small White Bean Baby Lima Bean 8,351 3,663 1,773 2, Large Lima Bean 4,945 12,329 3,624 4, Blackeye Cowpea 1,720 22, , Bean (nes) 30,202 20,209 9,061 11,101 2,894 Lentil 213, ,524 78,679 89,541 15,770 Green Pea 111, ,256 32,536 61,492 10,224 Yellow Pea 90,102 66,520 7,959 27,103 4,480 Aust. Winter Pea 1, Chickpea 58,149 79,325 41,606 40,491 6,719 Popcorn 102, ,374 41,996 40,636 8,396 Microwave Popcorn 45,308 45,103 17,615 20,398 4,012 Millet 56,543 53,953 22,789 5,874 1,125 Hulled Sunflower 33,987 16,697 8,551 4, Confection Sunflower 65,605 58,032 24,517 29,281 4,947 Oil Sunflower 43,008 40,632 21,260 21,860 3,961 Source U.S. Department of Commerce

6 Australian Specialty Grain Export Summary 2013, Jan (metric tons) Crop Year Period Nov-Oct Nov-Oct Nov-Jan Nov-Jan Jan Whole Pea 261, ,947 20,802 27,116 8,233 Split Pea 31,240 34,713 8,501 6,472 1,918 Chickpea 474, , , ,955 69,645 Broadbean (faba) 290, , , ,246 76,481 Mung Bean 90,766 93,990 7,167 6, Kidney Bean Adzuki Bean 828 1, Beans (nes) 1, Lentil 247, ,927 61,728 62,475 21,841 Vetch, Forage 3,943 18,331 1,226 1, Millet 8,820 23, Safflower Seed 191 2, Sunflower Canaryseed Mustard Seed 3, Rapeseed 5,536 11,765 1,005 4,964 3,378 Soybean 1,949 1, Linseed (flax) Buckwheat Source Australian Bureau of Statistics

7 Canada Marketing Year Bulk Export Summary Feb 2013 (metric tons) Crop Year Aug-Feb Aug-Feb Feb Period Aug-July Aug-July Peas Vancouver 2,397,515 1,579,946 1,079,723 1,086, ,700 Thunder Bay 9,000 Churchill 12,400 Total Peas 2,409,915 1,579,946 1,079,723 1,095, ,700 Lentils 200, , ,430 59, Canaryseed 26,565 30,388 14,192 Fababeans Mustard Seed 1,710 3,506 2, Sunflower Soybeans 70, ,867 57, ,900 26,900 Chickpeas 4,366 Total Crops 2,713,913 1,913,792 1,291,156 1,474, ,700 Calendar Year Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Feb Jan-Feb Period Peas Vancouver 2,090,541 2,259,950 1,334,270 70, ,800 Thunder Bay 1,866 Churchill 12,400 Total Peas 2,104,807 2,259,950 1,258,070 70, ,800 Lentils 104, , ,764 29, Canaryseed 21,881 26,910 16,196 Fababeans Mustard Seed 4,854 3,716 1, Sunflower Soybeans 17,170 91, ,064 19,702 66,100 Chickpeas 4,366 Total Crops 2,257,427 2,603,628 1,593, , ,700 SOURCES Canadian Ports Clearance Association. CGC data is used for shipments after August Except for peas, shipments are combined for all three ports.

8 India Pulse Supply and Demand Forecast (hectares, metric tons) Production Season Tur Kharif 2,860,000 2,650,000 2,750,000 2,551,000 Gram Rabi 8,220,000 7,700,000 8,570,000 8,032,000 Urad Kharif 1,400,000 1,230,000 1,280,000 1,318,000 Rabi 360, , , ,000 Total 1,760,000 1,770,000 1,740,000 1,777,000 Moong Kharif 1,530,000 1,235, ,000 1,156,000 Rabi 290, , , ,000 Total 1,820,000 1,630,000 1,270,000 1,514,000 Other Pulses Kharif 1,330, , , ,000 Other Pulses Rabi 2,250,000 2,410,000 2,630,000 2,430,000 Total Pulses Kharif 7,120,000 6,045,000 5,490,000 5,731,000 Rabi 11,120,000 11,045,000 12,090,000 11,279,000 Production Total 18,240,000 17,090,000 17,580,000 17,010,000 Pulse Imports Total Peas 2,222,000 1,446,000 1,271,000 1,449,000 Available Supply and Inferred Consumption (production plus imports) Chickpeas 211, , , ,000 Lentils 248, , , ,000 Beans 1,553,000 1,638,000 1,574,000 1,754,000 Total Imports 4,234,000 3,720,000 4,036,000 3,952,000 Total Pulses 22,474,000 20,810,000 21,616,000 20,962,000 Production estimates and forecasts based on historical data from India s agriculture department. Trade estimates based on data from exporting nations and the FAO.

9 Australia Pulse Production Summary (hectares, metric tons) Area (hectares) Broad Beans 16,300 21,000 23,000 24,000 23,000 Chickpea All 369, , , , ,000 Desi 331, , , , ,000 Kabuli 38,100 44,200 45,800 71,800 73,000 Faba Beans 131, , , , ,000 Field Pea All 285, , , , ,000 Blue 7,000 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dun 271, , , , ,000 White 7,000 N/A N/A N/A N/A Lentils 104, , , , ,000 Lupin All 485, , , , ,000 Albus 40,600 51,400 38,400 30,700 40,000 Angustifolius 445, , , , ,000 Mung Beans 51,585 41,900 32,000 40,000 40,000 Navy Beans 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Vetch 23,399 28,200 21,000 20,000 21,000 All Pulses 1,470,584 1,814,750 1,418,650 1,723,600 1,787,000 Production Broad Beans 17,000 48,100 42,000 47,300 41,200 Chickpea All 512, , , , ,100 Desi 475, , , , ,700 Kabuli 37,450 66,330 82,340 78,000 92,400 Faba Beans 224, , , , ,500 Field Pea All 351, , , , ,800 Blue 5,300 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dun 339, , , , ,800 White 6,000 N/A N/A N/A N/A Lentils 133, , , , ,400 Lupin All 611, , , , ,400 Albus 47,100 92,290 60,150 34,000 55,600 Angustifolius 564, , , , ,800 Mung Beans 47,857 40,900 31,700 37,700 28,300 Navy Beans 2,700 2,600 1,700 1,800 1,700 Vetch 3,895 4,100 4,100 4,000 3,800 All Pulses 1,904,652 2,192,660 2,325,340 2,095,980 2,338,200

10 Broad Beans 1,043 2,290 1,826 1,971 1,791 Chickpea All 1, ,713 1,266 1,345 Desi 1, ,697 1,292 1,356 Kabuli 983 1,501 1,798 1,086 1,266 Faba Beans 1,710 1,979 1,772 1,844 1,636 Field Pea All 1,231 1,446 1,248 1,140 1,240 Blue 757 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dun 1,253 1,581 1,248 1,140 1,240 White 857 N/A N/A N/A N/A Lentils 1,279 1,850 1,667 1,116 1,301 Lupin All 1,259 1,082 1,839 1,019 1,282 Albus 1,160 1,796 1,566 1,107 1,390 Angustifolius 1,269 1,011 1,862 1,012 1,272 Mung Beans Navy Beans Vetch BASED on data from Pulse Australia and ABARES. Estimates for 2004 and later mung, navy beans and vetch by STAT Publishing forecasts by STAT Publishing. United States PL-480 Food Aid Tender Summary Apr 2012 (metric tons) Season Sep-Apr Sep-Apr Apr Sep-Aug Sep-Aug Lentils 8,170 28,320 23,330 25, Green Peas 2,620 8,640 4,880 5, Yellow Peas 141,320 82,920 46,870 60,020 8,610 Pinto Beans 13,900 6,770 4,920 12,400 1,360 Black Beans ,850 1,730 Pea Beans Great Northern Beans 2, ,750 Small Reds Pink Beans Kidney Beans 600 3, Cowpeas Chickpeas 830 1,050 Total Pulses 170, ,880 80, ,290 12,830 Based on data obtained from the USDA s Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service.