World Agricultural Production

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 115 January 2015 Agricultural Brazil Soybeans: at a Record 95.5 Million Tons; Higher USDA forecasts Brazil s 2014/15 soybean production at a record 95.5 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month and up 8.8 million tons from last year. Harvested area is forecast at a record 31.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 1.4 million hectares from last year. is forecast at 3.03 tons per hectare, up 1.6 percent from last month and up 5.2 percent from last year. The increase in estimated yield is attributed to beneficial weather in Brazil s largest soybean areas Mato Grosso and Paraná. These two states account for 44 percent of Brazil s soybean area. The overall rainfall pattern has been consistently favorable following the delayed onset of the rainy season, with clear skies between rainfall events. This has limited the prevalence of soybean rust. In some areas, however, rainfall has been limited and there are concerns for yield prospects in Goiás and Piauí. These two states account for 13 percent of Source: PSD Brazil s soybean area. In Rio Grande do Sul, excessive rain caused flooding in lowlying areas. Damage to soybean fields, however, is limited according to local reports. Soybean farmers in Mato Grosso typically plant early maturing soybean varieties; last year about 60 percent of the 8.4 million hectares in Mato Grosso was planted using earlymaturing varieties. The goal is to plant early and harvest in January so that a second crop can be planted. Cotton, corn, sunflower and sorghum can be planted as second crops. Soybean harvest has begun for the earliest planted soybeans but the bulk of the harvest will occur in February. (For more information, please contact Bob Tetrault at Robert.Tetrault@fas.usda.gov.) Approved by the Agricultural Outlook Board

2 India Soybeans: s Forecasted Below 5Year Average USDA forecasts 2014/15 India soybean production at 10.5 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from last month but up 1.0 million from last year. is forecast at 11.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 1.2 million hectares from last year s record. is forecast at 0.95 tons per hectare, up 23 percent from last year, but 6.8 percent below the 5year average. India s soybeans are grown exclusively during the kharif (southwest monsoon) season, under rainfed conditions. Most of the soybean crop is grown in northwest and central India where the main producing states are Madhya Pradesh (53 percent), Maharashtra (34 percent), and Rajasthan (8 percent). The 2014 season started as one of the driest, resulting in significant planting delays. According to the Government of India s Meteorological Department, the advance of the 2014 southwest monsoon into the major soybean growing areas of northcentral and northwestern India was delayed by more than two weeks. Although the monsoon rains improved during July, rainfall totals for the monsoon remained below normal at the end of the month. At the end of July, estimated regional monsoon rainfall was 49 percent below normal in northwest India, 47 percent below normal in central India, 26 percent below normal in the southern peninsula, and 22 percent below normal in northeast India. Generally, the Indian monsoon is characterized as normal at 95 to 105 percent of the longtermaverage (LTA), and drought is declared when the monsoon is less than 90 percent of LTA. The late start and poor distribution of the monsoon rainfall significantly affected planted area and yield potential. Timely planting is critical because most farmers use shortday soybean varieties. Shortday soybean varieties tend to trip the reproductive trigger (flowering) as the day length shortens, which occurs much quicker with delayed plantings. In India the optimum soybean planting window is the third week of June to the second week of July. (For more information contact Dath Mita, PhD, at Dath.Mita@fas.usda.gov) India Corn: Increase in Rabi Season Corn Raises Forecast India's 2014/15 corn production is forecast at 22.0 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month but down 2.2 million from last year. is forecast at 9.0 million hectares, up 0.4 million hectares from last month, but down 0.5 million from last year. is forecast at 2.44 ton per hectare, unchanged from last month, down 4.1 percent from last year, and up 1 percent from the 5year average. India produces two corn crops, the first during the kharif or monsoon season (June through October) and the second rabi season (September through April). Roughly 80 percent of India s corn is grown during the kharif season. Across the majority of corn growing states (Rajasthan, Karnataka, Utter Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and Gujarat), unusually dry weather during the 2

3 beginning of the planting season for 2014 kharif corn resulted in significant planting delays and a significant yeartoyear decrease in final sown area. Kharif corn area was reported at 7.84 million hectares compared to 8.22 during the corresponding period last year. Kharif corn harvesting is complete. Rabi corn planting is in the final stages and reported to be progressing well. According to planting progress data from the Ministry of Agriculture, rabi season corn was planted at 1.15 million hectares at the end of December compared to 1.16 by the same time last year. The major factor driving the monthtomonth increase in estimated production is the increase in rabi corn area. (For more information contact Dath Mita, PhD at Dath.Mita@fas.usda.gov) Ethiopia Wheat: Record Estimated Ethiopia wheat production for 2014/15 is forecast to reach a record 4.4 million tons, up 0.15 million tons from last year s record crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 1.8 million hectares, up 0.15 million from last year. is estimated at a record 2.4 tons per hectare, due to favorable rainfall throughout the growing season in the wheat highland regions. Wheat yield has been increasing since 2002 due to favorable government initiatives that adopted improved seed varieties, increased fertilizer distribution, and expanded agriculture extension in rural areas. 3

4 Ethiopia wheat is a coolweather grain crop that is primarily grown at elevations from 1,500 to 3,000 meters above sea level. The crop is grown mostly during the main (meher) rainy season from June to September and harvested from October through January. Rainfall quantity and distribution during the 2014 meher season was favorable, as indicated by the cropland NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) time series graphs for Oromia and Amhara regions. Those two regions account for approximately 60 and 30 percent of Ethiopia s total wheat output, respectively. The NDVI time series graphs also indicate that the meher growing season had a late start with delayed onset rains in June, but the 2014 rainy season extended beyond average into the month of October. Relative crop conditions for Ethiopia s 2014 meher growing season are summarized by the cumulative Evapotranspiration Anomaly (ETa) product, which indicates that 2014 crop conditions were above average for most major wheat growing regions in Ethiopia. Seasonal NDVI time series graphs and cumulative ETa Anomaly data have proven to be reliable tools for monitoring seasonal crop conditions in Ethiopia, and both products indicate that Ethiopia should have a bumper 2014/15 wheat harvest. (For more information, please contact Curt Reynolds at Curt.Reynolds@fas.usda.gov.) 4

5 Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service / Office of Global Analysis International Assessment Division (IPAD / PECAD) Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s InterAgency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE537), January 12, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS International Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of Agricultural will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, February 10, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Metric tons to 480lb bales Cotton = MT * Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds 5

6 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis International Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Acting Deputy Director Paul Provance USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Curt Reynolds, PhD Sr. Analyst/Satellite Imagery Dath Mita, PhD Archives Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Robert Tetrault GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins Program Analyst Mary Jackson Management Analyst Rishan Chaudhry Administrative Assistant/COTR Terri Lagarde COUNTRY AND REGIONSPECIFIC INFORMATION South América, Argentina and Colombia Denise McWilliams, PhD Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell and North Africa Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman and other FSU12 countries Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka, Arnella Trent and Bangladesh East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene India, Pakistan, and Nepal Dath Mita, PhD SubSaharan Africa, Mexico, Curt Reynolds, PhD Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean Cambodia, and Vietnam Brazil, Venezuela, Central America, Robert Tetrault Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield Papua New Guinea, and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD Iran, Syria Western United States Justin Jenkins Eastern United States Paul Provance Crop Analyst Vacant

7 The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current Market and Trade and Agricultural Reports: Archives Market and Trade and Agricultural Reports: Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): Export Sales Report: Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): Other USDA Reports: Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): Economic Research Service: National Agricultural Statistics Service:

8 Table 01 Crop Summary Million Metric Tons Commodity Total Foreign North America United States North America Canada North America Mexico Europea n Union Former Soviet Russia Former Soviet Ukraine Asia (WAP) China Asia (WAP) India Asia (WAP) Asia (WAP) Asia (WAP) South America South America Brazil Selected Other Indonesia Pakistan Thailand Argentina Australia Selected Other South Africa Selected Other Turkey All Others Million metric tons Wheat nr 23.3 nr /14 prel nr 24.0 nr /15 proj. Dec nr 25.0 nr Jan nr 25.0 nr Coarse Grains 1, /14 prel. 1, /15 proj. Dec 1, Jan 1, Rice, Milled nr nr /14 prel nr nr /15 proj. Dec nr nr Jan nr nr Total Grains 2, , /14 prel. 2, , /15 proj. Dec 2, , Jan 2, , Oilseeds /14 prel /15 proj. Dec Jan Cotton nr nr nr /14 prel nr nr nr /15 proj. Dec nr nr nr Jan nr nr nr / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

9 Table 02 Wheat,, and Change in 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan European Union France Germany United Kingdom Poland Spain Italy Denmark Hungary Romania Bulgaria Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Syria North Africa Egypt Morocco Argentina Others

10 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain,, and Change in 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent , , , United States Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina European Union France Germany Poland Spain Italy Hungary United Kingdom Romania Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Africa Nigeria South Africa Ethiopia Egypt India Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Thailand Mexico Canada Australia Turkey Others ,

11 Table 04 Corn,, and Change in 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina Bolivia Mexico European Union France Italy Hungary Romania Poland India Canada Indonesia Ukraine Serbia Egypt Philippines Vietnam Thailand Russia SubSaharan Africa South Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Zimbabwe Turkey Others

12 Table 05 Barley,, and United States Total Foreign Change in 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent Russia European Union Germany France Spain United Kingdom Denmark Poland Czech Republic Finland Sweden Italy Hungary Austria Ukraine Canada Australia Turkey China Iran Morocco Kazakhstan Ethiopia Belarus India Argentina Mexico Iraq Algeria Others

13 Table 06 Oats,, and 9.45 Change in 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Russia Canada European Union Poland Finland Spain Germany Sweden United Kingdom France Italy Denmark Romania Czech Republic Hungary Austria Ireland Lithuania Australia Ukraine China Belarus Brazil Argentina Chile Norway Turkey Kazakhstan Serbia Others

14 Table 07 Rye,, and United States Total Foreign European Union Change in 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent Poland Germany Spain Lithuania Latvia France Denmark Czech Republic Austria Sweden Hungary Slovakia Finland United Kingdom Romania Greece Portugal Russia Belarus Ukraine Canada Turkey Argentina Kazakhstan Australia Switzerland Others

15 Table 08 Sorghum,, and Change in 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign SubSaharan Africa Nigeria Sudan Ethiopia Burkina Tanzania Niger Uganda Mozambique Ghana South Africa South Asia India Pakistan South America Argentina Brazil Mexico China Australia Egypt European Union France Italy Others

16 Table 09 Rice,, and Change in 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign East Asia China Japan Korea, South Korea, North South Asia India Bangladesh Pakistan Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Philippines Cambodia Laos Malaysia South America Brazil Peru SubSaharan Africa Nigeria Madagascar European Union Italy Spain Egypt Iran Others is on a rough basis, before the milling process is on a milled basis, after the milling process

17 Table 10 Total Oilseed,, and Change in 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent Total Total Foreign Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Palm Kernel Major OilSeeds United States Foreign Oilseeds South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia China South Asia India Pakistan European Union France Germany Poland Romania Hungary United Kingdom Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Canada Africa Nigeria Southeast Asia Indonesia Australia Others Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)

18 Table 11 Soybean,, and Change in 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay East Asia China Korea, South Korea, North Japan India Canada Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma European Union Italy France SubSaharan Africa South Africa Nigeria Uganda Serbia Mexico Iran Others

19 Table 12 Cottonseed,, and Change in 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan Former Soviet Union 12 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan South America Brazil Argentina Middle East Turkey Syria Iran Australia European Union Greece Spain SubSaharan Africa Burkina Mali Cameroon Sudan Zimbabwe Nigeria Benin Uganda Egypt Mexico Burma Others

20 Table 13 Peanut,, and Change in 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan SubSaharan Africa Nigeria Senegal Chad Ghana Sudan Congo (Kinshasa) Burkina Guinea Cameroon Mali Malawi Cote d'ivoire Uganda Central African Republic Benin Mozambique Niger South Africa Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Vietnam Thailand South America Argentina Brazil Egypt Mexico Others

21 Table 14 Sunflowerseed,, and Change in 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan 2013/14 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Moldova Kazakhstan South America Argentina Uruguay Bolivia Brazil Paraguay China European Union France Hungary Spain Italy Slovakia South Asia India Pakistan Turkey South Africa Burma Serbia Canada Australia Others