Monthly Economic Letter

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1 Monthly Economic Letter Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT After falling in the days surrounding the release of last month s USDA report, NY futures and the A Index were mostly stable through the second half of September and into early October. The CC Index and Pakistani prices were stable over the past month. Indian prices declined. Values for the NY December futures contract fell in the days surrounding the release of last month s USDA report. This was likely a combined result of hurricane Irma (which made landfall shortly ahead of the report) being weaker than was feared and the USDA significantly increasing its U.S. production forecast last month. Prices dropped from levels near 75 in early September to those near 69 in the middle of the month. Since then, prices have been relatively stable near 69. The A Index followed the same general pattern as NY futures. Values for the A Index decreased from levels near 85 in early September to those near 79 in the second half of the month and were generally unchanged through the first half of October. The China Cotton (CC) Index was stable in international terms over the past month, with values holding to levels near 110. In domestic terms, the CC Index increased slightly, climbing from 15,0 to 16,000 RMB/ton. Cash prices for the Indian Shankar-6 variety decreased over the past month. In international terms, values fell from 85 to 75. In domestic terms, values fell from 42,200 to 38,0 INR/candy. Pakistani prices have been mostly stable in both international and domestic terms since early September. In international terms, Pakistani spot rates held to values near 69. In domestic terms, prices hovered around 6,000 PKR/maund. SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE This month s USDA report featured slight increases to global production and mill-use figures. The world harvest figure increased 112,000 bales, from million million bales. The world consumption forecast increased 262,000 bales, from million to million. With world beginning stocks unchanged and the increase in mill-use greater than the increase in production, there was a marginal decrease in the forecast for global ending stocks (-156,000, from 92.5 to 92.4 million bales). Stocks outside of China are still expected to set a new record by relatively wide margin in 2017/18 (52.9 million), exceeding the previous record by 8.1 million bales or by nearly 20%. The stocks-to-use ratio for the world outside of China is also expected to set a record by a relatively wide margin (62.5% in 2017/18, previous record of 56.4% in 2008/09). USDA reports for the past two months have been dominated by upward revisions to production figures for the U.S. Even though the magnitude of change this month (-643,000 bales, from 21.8 to 21.1 million) is smaller than the revisions in excess of one million bales made in each of the two previous months, this month s change is nonetheless important for price direction because it addresses lingering questions related to hurricane damage. Last month s report was issued in the immediate aftermath of both Harvey and Irma and there was limited ability to estimate storm damage. Over the past month, NY Nearby & A Index Stable After Decline, CC Index Unchanged CC Index () A Index NY Nearby Recent Price Data Latest Value (Oct 12) Latest Month (Sep) OCTOBER 2017 Last 12 Months (Oct16-Sep17) NY Nearby A Index CC Index Indian Spot Pakistani Spot Additional price data available here. Price definitions available here. World Balance Sheet Beg. Stocks Production Mill-Use Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 78.8% 78.6% 78.3% China Balance Sheet Beg. Stocks Production Imports Mill-Use Exports Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 128.9% 102.4% 102.4% World-Less-China Balance Sheet Beg. Stocks Production Imports from China Mill-Use Exports to China Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 50.7% 62.9% 62.5% Additional balance sheet data available here.

2 the USDA conducted field surveys in areas hit by the hurricanes and this month s decrease to the U.S. production figure incorporates findings from that effort. Indications are that the storms caused damage in the form of yield loss (national yield lowered 3% from the record forecast in September) and a decrease in harvested acres (national harvested acres down 1% month-overmonth, from 11.5 to 11.4 million). Relative to the effect on U.S. ending stocks, the decrease in production was partially offset by a reduction to the export forecast (-400,000 bales, from 14.9 to 14.5 million). U.S. stocks are still expected to increase significantly in 2017/18, with the forecast suggesting warehoused supplies will more than double year-over-year, rising from 2.8 million bales at the end of the 2016/17 to 5.8 million bales at the end of 2017/18. Outside the U.S., the largest country-level changes to production forecasts included those for Argentina (+350,000, from 0.7 to 1.1 million), Brazil (+300,000, from 7.5 to 7.8 million), and Greece (+,000, from 1.1 to 1.2 million). There was only one notable change to country-level consumption forecasts, and that was for Vietnam (+250,000, from 6.0 to 6.2 million). The global import forecast increased nearly 400,000 bales, from 37.8 to 38.2 million bales. This was a primarily result of upward revisions to India (+300,000, from 1.3 to 1.6 million) and Vietnam (+200,000, from 6.4 to 6.6 million) more than offsetting decreases for Mexico (-150,000, from 1.0 to 0.8 million). Beyond the U.S., the largest changes for exports included those for India (+400,000, from 4.2 to 4.6 million), Australia (+300,000, from 3.8 to 4.1 million), Brazil (+250,000, from 3.4 to 3.7 million), Argentina (+125,000, from 200,000 to 325,000), and Turkmenistan (-150,000, from 600,000 to 450,000). PRICE OUTLOOK For price direction, there has been a push-and-pull dynamic resulting from the U.S. production outlook. On one side has been fear related to storm damage and uncertainty involving cotton that has yet to be harvested. On the other side, there is this year s 20% increase in planted acreage and generally good growing conditions outside areas impacted by hurricanes. As more acres are harvested in the U.S. and in other exporting countries, it could be expected that the market s attention may shift towards the large volume of cotton to be collected. Even though the production forecast was lowered in this month, this year s U.S. harvest currently ranks as the fifth biggest of all-time. India is projected to collect its second largest harvest on record, and so is Australia. Every one of the world s major cotton growing countries increased cotton acreage in 2017/18, and every one of the world s major exporting countries are expected to have an increase in ending stocks this crop year. Exporters will increasingly be looking to move supplies as harvests come in, and the corresponding competition for sales in import markets could be expected to weigh on prices. There is a possibility that China could absorb some of this additional supply by increasing imports. However, even after factoring in another round of auctions next spring/summer, the USDA still expects China to have enough stocks at the end of the 2017/18 to result in a stocks-to-use ratio over %. With so much supply at home, uncertainty surrounds the question whether China will increase imports. World Cotton Production India China United States Pakistan Brazil Rest of World World World Cotton Mill-Use China India Pakistan Bangladesh Turkey Rest of World World World Cotton Exports United States India Australia Brazil Uzbekistan Rest of World World World Cotton Imports Bangladesh Vietnam China Indonesia Turkey Rest of World World World Cotton Ending Stocks China India Brazil United States Pakistan Rest of World World Additional supply and demand data available here. Please forward comments and questions to To subscribe to the Monthly Economic Letter click here and follow the instructions in the Subscriptions box on the left side of the page. Sources: Price data from Reuters, Cotlook, Cotton Assn. of India, and Karachi Cotton Assn. Supply, demand, and trade data from the USDA. Disclaimer: The information contained herein is derived from public and private subscriber news sources believed to be reliable; however, Cotton Incorporated cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. No responsibility is assumed for the use of this information and no express or implied warranties or guarantees are made. The information contained herein should not be relied upon for the purpose of making investment decisions. This communication is not intended to forecast or predict future prices or events Cotton Incorporated. All rights reserved; America's Cotton Producers and Importers

3 Charts - Daily Charts - Monthly Tables List of Charts and Tables A Index & NY Nearby Chinese Prices Indian Prices Pakistani Prices A Index & NY Nearby Chinese Prices Indian Prices Pakistani Prices Balance Sheets (bales) Balance Sheets (tons) Supply & Demand (bales) Supply & Demand (tons) One Year of Daily A Index and NY Nearby Prices A Index 50 NY Nearby One Year of Daily CC Index (Grade 328) Prices 115 local terms (RMB/ton) 16, RMB/ton 16, ,250 14, ,750 13, ,250 11,500 Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms () due to changes in exchange rates.

4 One Year of Daily Indian Spot Prices (Shankar-6 Variety) local terms (INR/candy, candy= kg) 50,000 INR/candy 45,000 40, , , ,000 One Year of Daily Pakistani Spot Prices local terms (PKR/maund, maund = kg) 8,000 PKR/maund 7,000 6, , Note: Movement in prices in and local terms will not be identical due to changes in exchange rates. 4, ,000 Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms () due to changes in exchange rates.

5 Three Years of Monthly A Index and NY Nearby Prices A Index NY Nearby Three Years of Monthly CC Index (Grade 328) Prices local terms (RMB/ton) RMB/ton 20,500 19, , , ,500 13,000 11,500 10, ,500 Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms () due to changes in exchange rates.

6 Three Years of Monthly Indian Spot Prices (Shankar-6 Variety) local terms (INR/candy, candy= kg) 50,000 INR/candy 45,000 40, , , ,000 Three Years of Monthly Pakistani Spot Prices local terms (PKR/maund, maund = kg) 9,000 PKR/maund 8,000 7, , , ,000 Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms () due to changes in exchange rates.

7 World Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Supply Mill-Use Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 94.1%.3% 86.9% 78.8% 78.6% 78.3% China Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 181.6% 196.4% 165.7% 128.9% 102.4% 102.4% World-Less-China Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports from China Supply Mill-Use Exports to China Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 45.4% 52.3% 47.7% 50.7% 62.9% 62.5%

8 India Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 35.2% 47.0% 34.8% 43.2% 51.0% 50.2% U.S. Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 16.7% 24.6% 30.2% 15.1% 32.9% 32.5% Pakistan Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 22.7% 26.0% 24.8% 21.7% 25.9% 25.9%

9 World Cotton Production India China United States Pakistan Brazil Australia Turkey Uzbekistan Mexico Burkina Turkmenistan Mali Greece Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World World Cotton Exports United States India Australia Brazil Uzbekistan Burkina Mali Greece Benin Cote d'ivoire Turkmenistan Cameroon Pakistan Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World

10 World Cotton Mill-Use China India Pakistan Bangladesh Turkey Vietnam Brazil United States Indonesia Mexico Uzbekistan Thailand South Korea Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World World Cotton Imports Bangladesh Vietnam China Indonesia Turkey Pakistan India Thailand South Korea Mexico Taiwan Malaysia Egypt Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World Total

11 World Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Supply Mill-Use Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 94.1%.3% 86.9% 78.8% 78.6% 78.3% China Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 181.6% 196.4% 165.7% 128.9% 102.4% 102.4% World-Less-China Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports from China Supply Mill-Use Exports to China Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 45.4% 52.3% 47.7% 50.7% 62.9% 62.5%

12 India Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 35.2% 47.0% 34.8% 43.2% 51.0% 50.2% U.S. Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 16.7% 24.6% 30.2% 15.1% 32.9% 32.5% Pakistan Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 22.7% 26.0% 24.8% 21.7% 25.9% 25.9%

13 World Cotton Production India China United States Pakistan Brazil Australia Turkey Uzbekistan Mexico Burkina Turkmenistan Mali Greece Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World World Cotton Exports United States India Australia Brazil Uzbekistan Burkina Mali Greece Benin Cote d'ivoire Turkmenistan Cameroon Pakistan Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World

14 World Cotton Consumption China India Pakistan Bangladesh Turkey Vietnam Brazil United States Indonesia Mexico Uzbekistan Thailand South Korea Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World Total World Cotton Imports Bangladesh Vietnam China Indonesia Turkey Pakistan India Thailand South Korea Mexico Taiwan Malaysia Egypt Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World Total

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