World Agricultural Production
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1 Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 0412 World Agricultural Mexico Corn: Drought Causes High Crop Losses USDA estimates 2011/12 Mexico corn production at 19.0 million metric tons, down 7 percent from last month and down 10 percent from last year. is forecast at 6.0 million hectares, down 10 percent from last month and down 14 percent from last year. Estimated yield for 2011/12 corn is expected to reach 3.17 tons per hectare, up nearly 3 percent from last month and up 6 percent from last year. The reduction in output is attributed to adverse weather conditions, including late rains, drought and frost that impacted the spring/summer crop, and low water reservoirs in Sinaloa impacting the fall/winter crop. The impact of the drought was worse than previously forecasted. The Secretariat of Agricultural, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA) reported that it caused high crop losses, particularly in the main producing areas of Puebla, state of Mexico, Guanajuato, and some regions of Jalisco. The spring/summer crop is estimated to reach 13.5 million metric tons, down 20 percent from the previous year. of the fall/winter crop, which accounts for about a quarter of total corn production, is forecast to drop by 13 percent from the 5year average due to lower planted area. The fall/winter corn yields are expected to be good despite restricted water resources. Sinaloa and the other corn producing areas had scattered showers and seasonably warm temperatures throughout the winter season. The fall/winter crop is expected to be harvested in May and June. (For more information, contact Arnella Trent at ) Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
2 Egypt Corn: Estimate Revised Up, but Still Lowest in 15 Years USDA estimates Egypt 2011/12 corn production at 5.5 million tons, up 1.7 million or 45 percent from last month, and down 1.0 million tons or 15 percent from last year. is estimated at 0.7 million hectares, up 0.18 million or 35 percent from last month, but down 0.15 million hectares or 18 percent from last year. is estimated at 7.86 tons per hectare (t/ha), compared to 7.31 t/ha last month, and the fiveyearaverage of 8.12 t/ha. Corn area stands at its lowest level since 2003/04, and production is at its lowest level since 1995/96. Corn competes with two other summer crops cotton and rice. for both crops increased in 2011/12, largely at the expense of corn. Cotton area increased in 2010/11, primarily due to increased price incentives from the Egyptian government. During 2011/12 rice area increased to a record high due to its profitability and the more relaxed enforcement of area restrictions by the new government. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at ) Argentina Soybeans: Harvest of FirstCrop Proceeding Around Rains Argentine soybean production for 2011/12 is forecast at 45.0 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month and down 4.0 million or 8 percent from last year. Estimated harvested area remains unchanged at 18.6 million hectares, up 0.3 million or 2 percent from last year. is expected to drop to 2.42 tons per hectare, down 3 percent from last month and down 10 percent from last year. Recent rains benefited the crop, but heat and drought during growth and development will likely limit yield, particularly in Cordoba, southern Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires provinces. These areas 2
3 account for nearly 50 percent of the firstcrop soy. Late plantings of secondcrop soybeans that extended through the end of January are at risk of damage from fall frost. With the first 15 percent of the soy crop harvested, yields have varied greatly across the provinces due to highly variable rains this season. (For more information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams at ) Brazil Soybeans: Harvest Nears Completion with Lower than Expected s Brazil s 2011/12 soybean production is estimated at 66.0 million tons, down 2.0 million tons from last month and down 10 million or 13 percent from last year. is estimated at a record 25.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.8 million or 3 percent from last year. is estimated at 2.64 tons per hectare, down 4 percent from last month and down 9 percent from the 5year average. The soybean harvest pace is advancing quickly in Brazil with over 75 percent of the national crop harvested by the beginning of this month, 32 percent of the crop harvested in Rio Grande do Sul, and harvest completed in the topproducing state of Mato Grosso. Soybean yields for most states in Brazil are expected to be lower than last year s record crop. A La Nina induced drought reduced yields by nearly 30 percent from last year in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. In Mato Grosso, reported harvested yields are lower than last year due to losses caused by soybean rust. In the Northeastern state of Bahia, yields were reduced due to a dry spell from midfebruary through midmarch, when the crop was in critical growth stages. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at ) India Cotton: Favorable Prospects for Current Crop USDA estimates 2011/12 India cotton production at a record 26.5 million bales (480pound bales), down 2 percent from last month, but nearly unchanged from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 10 percent from last year. The yield is estimated at 473 kilograms per hectare, down 2 percent from last month and down 8 percent from last year. 3
4 The major factor shaping the current estimate is the apparent rate of seed cotton arrivals at ginning facilities. Seed cotton arrivals in November through February were averaging 25 percent lower than last year. At the end of March the nationwide arrivals improved and the current estimates are 9 percent lower than the same period last year. According to the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), arrivals in Maharashtra are down 27 percent and in Gujarat they are up 4 percent compared to the same time last year. Combined, these states produce approximately 49 percent of India cotton. On the other hand, arrivals in Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh are up 3 and 8 percent, respectively. Late harvest and farmer holding (anticipating higher prices) were the primary reasons for the relatively low seed cotton arrivals at the beginning of the marketing season. As the season progresses, it is apparent that lowerthanexpected yields are also a significant contributing factor, especially in Maharashtra. The monsoon season started at a relatively slow rate in May June with localized drierthannormal rainfall. Conditions improved significantly in JulyAugust resulting in an extended planting window and a boost to plantings. The early season drierthannormal conditions coupled with expansion into low rainfall regions with limited or no supplemental irrigation supplies, raised concerns about overall potential yields. (For more information, contact Dath Mita, PhD, at ) Indonesia Rice: Forecast Lower Owing to Lower than Expected s USDA forecasts total milled rice production in Indonesia in 2011/12 at 36.3 million tons, down 1.0 million or 3 percent from last month but up 2 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 12.1 million hectares, down 50,000 hectares or less than 1 percent from last month but up slightly from last year. Rice yields are estimated at 4.72 tons per hectare, down 2 percent from last month but up 1 percent from last year. Seasonal weather conditions have been highly variable in Indonesia s primary rice growing regions during the 2011/12 rice growing season, with the harvest 4
5 of the main season crop just finishing in early April. Indonesia produces 3 annual rice crops with the 2 irrigated dry season crops yet to be planted. Harvest of the first dry season crop will occur in July/August, while the second crop will occur in November/December. Though the general weather pattern has been more favorable than last year, crop yields from the main rainy season harvest did not improve as much as previously expected. The main season crop normally accounts for approximately 60 percent of total production. The small reduction in harvested rice area is attributed to farmers increasing the acreage of secondary crops like corn and soybeans in the upcoming dry season. of both of these crops has suffered over the past 2 years, owing to abnormally wet conditions from a persistent La Nina weather pattern. A return to more normal dry season conditions should encourage greater acreage of secondary crops. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at ) 5
6 This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Assessment Branch, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s InterAgency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE505), April 10, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS International Assessment Branch prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural will be released after 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time, May 10, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Metric tons to 480lb bales Cotton = MT * Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds 6
7 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis International Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Director Derrick Williams III Acting Deputy Director Paul Provance Sr. Analyst/SIA Manager Curt Reynolds, PhD USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Sr. Agricultural Economist Paul Provance Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Dath Mita PhD Program Analyst Mary Jackson GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins COUNTRY AND REGIONSPECIFIC INFORMATION South America Denise McWilliams PhD Europe and North Africa Bryan Purcell FSU12, Russia Mark Lindeman Canada, Mexico, Central America Arnella Trent and Caribbean China, East Asia, Venezuela Paulette Sandene South Asia, India, Australia Dath Mita PhD and New Zealand Africa, Brazil Curt Reynolds PhD Middle East and Southeast Asia Michael Shean Eastern Robert Tetrault Western Jim Crutchfield
8 Table 01 World Crop Summary Million Metric Tons Commodity World Total Foreign North America United States North America Canada North America Mexico EU27 Former Soviet Russia Former Soviet Ukraine Asia (WAP) China Asia (WAP) India Asia (WAP) Asia (WAP) Asia (WAP) South America South America Brazil Selected Other Indonesia Pakistan Thailand Argentina Australia Selected Other South Africa Selected Other Turkey All Others Million metric tons Wheat nr 24.0 nr /11 prel nr 23.9 nr /12 proj. Mar nr 24.0 nr Apr nr 24.2 nr Coarse Grains 1, /11 prel. 1, /12 proj. Mar 1, Apr 1, Rice, Milled nr nr /11 prel nr nr /12 proj. Mar nr nr Apr nr nr Total Grains 2, , /11 prel. 2, , /12 proj. Mar 2, , Apr 2, , Oilseeds /11 prel /12 proj. Mar Apr Cotton nr nr nr /11 prel nr nr nr /12 proj. Mar nr nr nr Apr nr nr nr / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.
9 Table 02 Wheat,, and Change in 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan EU France Germany United Kingdom Poland Spain Italy Denmark Hungary Romania Bulgaria Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Syria North Africa Egypt Morocco Argentina Others
10 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain,, and Change in 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent World , , , , Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina EU France Germany Poland Spain Italy Hungary United Kingdom Romania Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Africa Nigeria South Africa Ethiopia Egypt India Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Thailand Mexico Canada Australia Turkey Others
11 Table 04 Corn,, and Change in 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina Mexico EU France Italy Hungary Romania Poland India Canada Indonesia Ukraine Serbia Egypt Philippines Vietnam Thailand Russia SubSaharan Africa South Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Zimbabwe Turkey Others
12 Table 05 Barley,, and Change in 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign Russia EU Germany France Spain United Kingdom Denmark Poland Czech Republic Finland Sweden Italy Hungary Austria Ukraine Canada Australia Turkey China Iran Morocco Kazakhstan Ethiopia Belarus India Argentina Mexico Iraq Algeria Others
13 Table 06 Oats,, and Change in 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign Russia Canada EU Poland Finland Spain Germany Sweden United Kingdom France Italy Denmark Romania Czech Republic Hungary Austria Ireland Lithuania Australia Ukraine China Belarus Brazil Argentina Chile Norway Turkey Kazakhstan Serbia Others
14 Table 07 Rye,, and Change in 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign EU Poland Germany Spain Lithuania Latvia France Denmark Czech Republic Austria Sweden Hungary Slovakia Finland United Kingdom Romania Greece Portugal Russia Belarus Ukraine Canada Turkey Argentina Kazakhstan Australia Switzerland Others
15 Table 08 Sorghum,, and World Total Foreign SubSaharan Africa Change in 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent Nigeria Sudan Ethiopia Burkina Tanzania Niger Uganda Mozambique Ghana South Africa South Asia India Pakistan South America Argentina Brazil Mexico China Australia Egypt EU France Italy Others
16 Table 09 Rice,, and Change in 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign East Asia China Japan Korea, South Korea, North South Asia India Bangladesh Pakistan Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Philippines Cambodia Laos Malaysia South America Brazil Peru SubSaharan Africa Nigeria Madagascar EU Italy Spain Egypt Iran Others is on a rough basis, before the milling process is on a milled basis, after the milling process
17 Table 10 Total Oilseed,, and Change in 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Total Foreign Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Palm Kernel Major OilSeeds Foreign Oilseeds South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia China South Asia India Pakistan EU France Germany Poland Romania Hungary United Kingdom Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Canada Africa Nigeria Southeast Asia Indonesia Australia Others World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)
18 Table 11 Soybean,, and World Total Foreign South America Change in 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay East Asia China Korea, South Korea, North Japan India Canada Former Soviet Union Ukraine Russia Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma EU Italy France SubSaharan Africa South Africa Nigeria Uganda Serbia Mexico Iran Others
19 Table 12 Cottonseed,, and Change in 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan Former Soviet Union 12 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan South America Brazil Argentina Middle East Turkey Syria Iran Australia EU Greece Spain SubSaharan Africa Burkina Mali Cameroon Sudan Zimbabwe Nigeria Benin Uganda Egypt Mexico Burma Others
20 Table 13 Peanut,, and World Change in 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan SubSaharan Africa Nigeria Senegal Chad Ghana Sudan Congo (Kinshasa) Burkina Guinea Cameroon Mali Malawi Cote d'ivoire Uganda Central African Republic Benin Mozambique Niger South Africa Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Vietnam Thailand South America Argentina Brazil Egypt Mexico Others
21 Table 14 Sunflowerseed,, and Change in 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Moldova Kazakhstan South America Argentina Uruguay Bolivia China EU France Hungary Spain Italy Slovakia South Asia India Pakistan Turkey South Africa Burma Serbia Canada Australia Others
22 Table 15 Rapeseed,, and World Change in 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr 2010/11 Mar Apr MMT Percent MMT Percent Total Foreign EU Germany France United Kingdom Poland Czech Republic Denmark Hungary Romania Slovakia Sweden Lithuania Latvia Austria Finland Estonia China South Asia India Pakistan Bangladesh Canada Australia Former Soviet Union 12 Ukraine Russia Belarus Paraguay Others
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