CHICKPEA WEEKLY REPORT

Transcription

1 CHICKPEA WEEKLY REPORT Contents Market Recap o Domestic o International Outlook Trade Data o Port Lineups-India (Latest) o Monthly Summary Price o Import Parity o CNF Quotes (in USD/MT) o International Price (in INR/Qtl.) o Domestic Prices Chana at NCDEX Cumulative Arrivals Weather Update Annexure o India Balance Sheet Production Estimates by GOI MSP Import Overview Trade Policy Area Trend Crop Calendar Seasonality o Canada o Australia Legend Pulses Nomenclature 28 th November 2017 Market Recap Domestic Chana witnessed slightly weak movement on low buying and govt. hushed on import duty. Chana Tumbles After Hitting One Month Top: NCDEX Chana futures slipped as heavy profit selling was noted in the commodity after recent gains. The NCDEX futures for January hit a one month high in last session but a rather thin undertone in ready market demand for pulses took a toll and the prices slipped. Traders are eyeing a pickup in sowing given the recent government notifications on export and import aimed at boosting the productivity in local pulses and Page 1

2 in turn giving a fillip to the prices. However, the sowing would gain traction only from next month and till that time; no clear triggers are likely to weigh on the market. NCDEX chana down; govt silent on import duty: Futures contracts of chana fell on the NCDEX, shedding gains that were built in the past couple of weeks on talk of likely import duty. Higher arrivals and weakness in the futures contracts pulled down prices of chana. Good Rabi Seeding Progress: Seeding of this year's rabi season pulse crops slowed during the past week but is moving forward at a faster pace than last year. During the week, farmers planted million hectares, compared to million during the same week last year and the recent five-year average for the past week of 2.03 million hectares. Land in all pulses of all rabi season pulses totals million so far, this season, compared to million at this time last year and the recent average of million. (Source-Stat Pub) State Wise Sowing as on 24/11/2017: All India Chana State wise sowing up by 16% to 7.29 Mln ha. from 6.28 Mln Ha. Chana State-Wise Area Covered % Change (In Ha.) (In Ha.) Andhra Pradesh Bihar Chhattisgarh Gujrat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jharkhand Odisha Punjab Karnataka Maharashtra Madhya Pradesh West Bengal Uttarakhand Uttar Pradesh Telangana Tamil Nadu Rajasthan Total Chana Production Target State (Area in Ha. & Production in MT) % Change Target Final estimate Area Production Area Production Area Production Andhra Pradesh 475, , , ,000 20% 56% Maharashtra 2,035,000 1,908,000 1,895,000 1,987,000 7% -4% Chhattisgarh 390, , , ,910 4% 6% Rajasthan 1,500,000 1,425,000 1,548,000 1,391,000-3% 2% Page 2

3 Rajasthan aims chana output at 1.43 million tonne vs 1.39 million tonne. Production of all rabi crops in Rajasthan, barring chana and barley, is seen lower this year. Among pulses, the state aims around 3% higher chana output at 1.43 million tonne. Rajasthan is the third largest producer of chana in the country. Maharashtra targets chana output 1.91 MMT vs 1.99 MMT on lower productivity with higher planted area. All India Post Monsoon Rainfall (in mm) from 01 Oct to 22 Nov 2017 for the country as a whole was 94.1 mm which is 10% down from normal rainfall of mm. All India Cumulative arrivals till 26 Nov (This Year Vs Last Year)- Marketing Year (Apr.-Mar.) Up by 51 % to Tonne from Tonne International Canada November Outlook, 2017: Chickpeas For , production is estimated at 81 kt, a marginal decrease from last year due to lower area seeded and lower yields. The production of both kabuli and desi types is estimated to be similar to the previous year. Total supply is forecast to decrease as lower carry-in stocks more-than offset the increase in imports. Exports are forecast at 110 kt with the EU, the US and Pakistan as the top markets for August and September. Carry-out stocks are expected to continue to be tight. The average price is forecast to increase, for the third consecutive year, due to strong world demand. The USDA has estimated US chickpea area seeded at record 0.6 million acres, nearly double the area in Assuming lower yields and higher abandonment, US chickpea production is forecast by AAFC at a record 0.4 Mt, up sharply from the production in Crop Year (a) Chickpe as f Area Seede d Are a Yield Producti on Impor ts Total Harvested (b) Suppl y Total Expor Domest Carryout Stocks- ts ic to- (b) Use (c) Stocks Use Ratio Average Price (d) t/ha % $//t , ,200-1,230 Outlook Chana witnessed slightly weak movement on low buying and govt. hushed on import duty. Page 3

4 Fig in MT Fig in MT Trade Data Monthly Summary: Import-Chick Pea (Chana) Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Note: Blue bars shows Govt fig, while yellow bars represent data taken from various sources and it may vary. Export-Chick Pea (Chana) Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Prices Import Parity - Australian Chana at Mumbai (in INR/MT): Imports are unviable on relative lower domestic prices. Particulars 24-Nov Nov-17 CNF at JNPT (Mumbai)-(in USD/MT) USD/INR CNF in INR (in INR/MT) Port Expenses (in INR/MT) Brokerage (in INR/MT) Interest for a Month (8% per month) Total Cost at Port (in INR/MT) Page 4

5 Price (in INR/Qtl.) 1-Jan-16 1-Feb-16 1-Mar-16 1-Apr-16 1-May-16 1-Jun-16 1-Jul-16 1-Aug-16 1-Sep-16 1-Oct-16 1-Nov-16 1-Dec-16 1-Jan-17 1-Feb-17 1-Mar-17 1-Apr-17 1-May-17 1-Jun-17 1-Jul-17 1-Aug-17 1-Sep-17 1-Oct-17 1-Nov-17 1-Dec-17 Prices (in INR/Qtl.) Spot Price at Mumbai (in INR/MT) Import Parity (in INR/MT) CNF Quotes: Australian Chana at Mumbai (in USD/MT): Date Ready One Month Forward Shipments Two Month Forward Shipments Three Month Forward Shipments Four Month Forward Shipments 17-Nov Nov International Price at Mumbai (In INR /Qtl.) Variety & Origin Chana Australia Chana(Old Crop) Australia Domestic Prices- (in INR/Qtl.) Chana Black DELHI JAIPUR Chana Delhi Rajasthan Origin Page 5

6 Domestic Prices witnessed range bound movement as compared with the previous week. Commodity Variety State Market Chana Annagiri Maharashtra Latur Solapur Chapa Maharashtra Akola Dal Delhi Delhi Jharkhand Jamshedpur Madhya Pradesh Gwalior Indore Maharashtra Jalgaon Latur Rajasthan Bikaner Uttar Pradesh Kanpur Desi Gujarat Dahod Madhya Pradesh Ashok Nagar Gwalior Maharashtra Amravati 4495 Rajasthan Alwar Bundi Jaipur Kekri Ethiopia Maharashtra Mumbai G 12 Maharashtra Latur Gauran Maharashtra Jalna Latur Kantewala Madhya Pradesh Dewas M.P. Delhi Delhi Mixed Maharashtra Akola Jalgaon Latur Pila Maharashtra Jalna Tanzania Maharashtra Mumbai FAQ Andhra Pradesh Vijaywada Karnataka Gulbarga Madhya Pradesh Indore Rajasthan Bikaner Uttar Pradesh Kanpur Rajasthan Delhi Delhi Australia Maharashtra Mumbai Chana NCDEX NCDEX Chana Future (in INR /Qtl.) as on 24 Nov 2017: Price: 5.3% Volume: -1 % OI: -34 % Page 6

7 Contract Months Price (in INR/Qtl.) Volume (MT) Open Interest (MT) % Change % Change % Change 20-Dec-17 4,982 4, Jan-18 4,897 4, Mar-18 4,250 4, Apr-18 4,268 4, NCDEX Chana Stock Position* (Quantity in MT) Stock Position (in MT) Bikaner % Change Valid Stock Qty. in Progress Total *(total quantity including quantity in progress) NCDEX Chana EDD Wise Stock Position (Quantity in MT) Location EDD 16-Oct-17 2-Oct-17 % Change Bikaner 05-Feb Bikaner 05-Mar Bikaner 05-Apr Total Cumulative Arrival (Qty in MT)- (MY Apr-Mar.) India marketing year cumulative arrivals are up by 45 % till date from last year. MP: +18 % Rajasthan: +163% State This Year Last Year % Change (01/04/ /11/2017) (01/04/ /11/2016) Andhra Pradesh Assam Chhattisgarh Gujarat Haryana Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur NCT of Delhi Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Page 7

8 Telangana Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal India Total Weather Update India Weather Updates: Post Monsoon Rainfall (in mm) from 01 October to 22 November 2017 Region Actual Normal % Departure from Long Period Average All India East & Northeast India Northwest India Central India South Peninsula Page 8

9 Annexure India Chana Balance Sheet Chana (in '000 MT)- (Marketing Year Apr to March) Attribute Est F carry In Production Import Total Supply Feed seed Retention Export Consumption Total Demand Ending Stock Page 9

10 Trade Policy Pulses (Chana) Trade Financial Year (Apr.- Mar.) Trad e HS Code Pulses/Year %Shar e %Shar e %Shar e (Apr- June) Chickpeas (Chana) Total Pulses Chickpeas (Chana) Total Pulses Indian Pulses Trade Policy and Tariff Schedule 1. Export Policy a) Under Advance Authorization Scheme, import of pulses is allowed for export after domestic processing and value addition (vide DGFT Public Notice No. 51 (RE-2013)/ dated 14th November 2013). b) The prohibition on exports of Pulses is not applied to export of i. Toor Dal, Urad & Moong - Removal of prohibition on export of pulses (Tur Dal, Moong, urad) -(Notification No. 28/ Dated 15 Sep.,2017) S.No. Tariff Item HS Code Unit Item Description Existing Policy Amended Policy Policy Conditions 54 ` Kg Pigeon Peas (Cajanus cajan)/ Toor Dal ` Kg Toor Dal (Split) ` Kg Beans of the species Vigna mungo (L.) Hepper or Vigna radiata (L.) Wilczek Beans of the species Vigna mungo (L.) Hepper or Vigna radiata (L.) Wilczek Prohibited Free (i) The export of pulses will be allowed only after registration of contracts with Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA); (ii) Export shall be through Custom EDI ports; (iii) However, export through the non-edi Land Custom Stations (LCS) on Indo- Bangladesh and Indo-Nepal border shall also be allowed subject to registration of quantity with DGFT. Regional Authorities (RAs) in Kolkata & Patna and such other RAs as notified by DGFT from time to time Page 10

11 will be the designated RAs for the purpose of such registration of quantity. ii. Kabuli Chana and iii. 50,000 MTs of organic pulses and lentils per annum. iv. Export of organic pulses and lentils shall be subject to following conditions: Quantity limit shall be 50,000 Tonnes per annum; It should be duly certified by APEDA as being organic pulses and lentils; Export contracts should be registered with APEDA, New Delhi prior to shipment; Export shall be allowed only from Customs EDI Ports. (Note: As per Notification No. 38 ((RE-2012)/ dated 31st March, 2014&Notification No. 03 / dated 19th April, 2017) c) Export of pulses to Bhutan have been exempted from any ban and without any quantitative restriction. (Notification No. 81 (RE-2013)/ dated 14th June d) The export of pulses to the Republic of Maldives has been permitted for the years to as per the quantities given below: Pulses export to Maldives (in MT) Year (Apr- Mar.) Export Import Policy Import of Chana, pea and Lentil is free without any quantitative restrictions. While Import of Tur, urad and Moong is restricted with quantitative restrictions. A. Tur Import Restriction (Notification No. 19/ Dated 5th Aug.,2017) EXIM Code Item Description Existing Policy Existing policy Condition Revised Import Policy Revised Policy Condition ` Pigeon Peas (Cajanus cajan)/ Toor Dal Free - Restricted Subject to Policy Condition 2 of this Chapter ` Other: ` ` Split Other Free - Free except Pigeon Peas (Cajanus cajan)/ Toor Dal which is Restricted Import of Pigeon Peas is subject to policy Condition 2 of this chapter Policy Condition 2: Import shall be subject to an annual (Fiscal Year) quota of 2 lakh MT as per procedure to be notified. This restriction will not apply to Government's import commitments under any bilateral/regional Agreement/MOU. Page 11

12 2. Effect of this Notification: Import policy of Pigeon Peas ( Cajanus cajan)/ Toor Dal under EXIM Codes: , and is revised from 'free' to 'restricted'. Import Tariff Schedule HS Code Commodity Bound Duty Statutory Duty Applied Duty* Chickpeas (Garbanzos) 100% 30% Nil * Department of Revenue vide Notification No. 10/2017-Customs dated 28th March, 2017 has imposed 10% import duty on Tur (Arhar). The import duty on remaining pulses is still Nil i.e. 0%. 3.Foreign Trade Agreements for Pulses: HS Code Items Status in FTAs/PTAs ASEAN SAFTA SAFTA DFTP Korea Japan LDC Non-LDC Scheme Chickpeas NT-1 0 duty 8% duty 0 duty SEN B 10 Normal Track (NT)-1: Tariff reduced to 0% by December 2013 X-Negative List SEN: Tariff will be reduced to 50% by December 2017 (for Korea) B 10: Duties under this category shall be eliminated in11 annual instalments from the date of coming into force the Agreement. MoP (Margin of Preference) - The reduction of the rate of duty on a product, provided for in a schedule to the Trade Agreement. Chana Rabi Area Figure CROP AREA COVERED AREA COVERED AREA COVERED NORMAL AREA (In Ha.) (In Ha.) (In Ha.) Andhra Pradesh Bihar Chhattisgarh Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Karnataka Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Meghalaya Nagaland Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Telangana Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Total The total acreage sown in stood at 9.9 million hectares as against 8.95 million hectares in the previous year , up by 10.7%. Page 12

13 Acreage under the two top producing states namely Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan were up by 11.5% and 41.5% respectively. In Maharashtra and Karnataka, Chana is sown almost 1 month earlier and have recorded an increase in acreage by 49% and 3.8% respectively. However, the yields in these states are below normal owing to lack of rainfall during the cropping season. Price Seasonality (MY MAR-FEB) Chana-Indore (Desi) 3500 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Yr. Avg. 5 Yr. Avg. In Indore, the Sep. month average prices is INR/Qtl 5719, down from 8318 last year, also down from 6236 three year avg. and up from 4912 five year average. Australia (Area, Yield Production) Updated September (ABARES) Chickpea Production (Australia) Commodity unit s s f Chickpeas kt Chickpea Area (Australia) Commodity unit s f Chickpeas 000 ha ,052 1,099 Chickpea Yield(Australia) Commodity unit s f Chickpeas t/ha Page 13

14 Chana Crop Calendar - India India Harvest Calendar State Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Gujarat Haryana Karnataka Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Punjab Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Source: Indian Council of Agricultural Research (Crop Science Division Legend International Prices are in Rs/ MT or USD/MT; Domestic prices are in Rs./Qtl. Arrivals & Weekly Impex figures are in MTs Area in ha. 1 Quintal (Qtl.) = 100 Kgs. Pulses Nomenclature Bengal Gram- Chana/ Chickpea/ Gram Green Gram- Moong/ Mung Black Gram- Urad/ Udid/ Black Matpe Red Gram- Tur/ Arhar/ Pigeon Pea Lentil- Masoor/ Masur Peas- Yellow pea/ Dry Pea/ Kaspa Pea/ Dun Pea Page 14