Current trends of agroclimatic indices applied to grapevine and olive tree in central Italy

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1 UNIVERSITY OF FLORENCE Department of Agronomy and Land Management Current trends of agroclimatic indices applied to grapevine and olive tree in central Italy Simone Orlandini, Valentina Di Stefano, Annalena Puglisi Symposium on Climate Change and Variability-Agro Meteorological Monitoring and Coping Strategies for Agriculture. Oscarsborg, Norway COST ACTION 734 ET - Climate Risks in Vulnerable Areas: Agrometeorological Monitoring and Coping Strategies (WMO)

2 Grapevine: high quality of production sensible to environmental change longer growing season phenological phases anticipated risk of decrease of productions Increase temperature Napa Valley (California): flowering anticipated of more then 20 days (51-97 ). Increasing of frozen Risk reduction of bud productivity (Nemani et al., 2001) Bordeaux: anticipated and shorter phenological phases, longer growing season (Jones and Davis, 2000) Veneto (Italia): anticipated Merlot flowering (Chiaudani et al., 2007) Oregon: increase elevation limit for vegetation of grapevine (from 180 to 300 m asl) (Sergo, 2007) Australia: quality changed in the last 50 years (Powley, 2007)

3 Olive is a bio-indicator for the Mediterranean climate high temperature bloom anticipated (data get from pollen bulletin) Max [pollen] anticipation= 8.5 days/1 C (Chuine et al., 98) Olive cultivated up to England (McCarthy, 2006; Coldiretti, 2007)

4 Aims 1 Homogenization of the historical series of temperature (data of Tuscany region, Italy) 2 Analysis of the trend of last 50 years 3 Analysis of the potential effects of change and variability on the grapevine and olive responses Result are homogeneous historical series

5 Material and methods IBIMET CNR data base agrometeorological stations analysed on the basis of > Number of years < % missing value Regional area covering 22 termometric stations Daily Tmax e Tmin

6

7 Station characteristics Name Lat UTM_X Long UTM_Y Elevation (m.s.l.m.) Arezzo Boscolungo Camaldoli Castel del Piano Castelnuovo Garf. Elba Calamita Firenzuola Grosseto Livorno Lucca Massa Massa Marittima Montepulciano Orbetello Peretola Pisa Pistoia Pontremoli San Miniato Siena Vallombrosa Volterra

8 Homogenization of the historical series original data Test of data quality Craddock test Homogenization { Tmax >= 42 C Tmin < - 15 C Δ >= 25 C Tmin o Tmax = for 5 or + days Tmin e Tmax = for 3 or + days Tmin > Tmax Reference stations: not only one but 10 stations Homogenization made by trigonometric fitting, reference period true up in the not homogeneity year Auer et al., 2005 Metadata Maugeri et al., 2004 (UNIMI) Brunetti et al., 2006 (CNR-ISAC)

9 Agroclimatic indices Durations of vegetative season (threshold: 10 C) Durations of vegetative season (threshold: 0 C) Degree day accumulation Mean of the maximum temperature Huglin index (grape) Mean of the minimum temperature Date of Bud-break (grape) Mean of the range of temperature Date of Flowering (grape) Frequency of frosts Date of growth (grape) Date of the last frost event Minimum temperature of the last frost event Date of the first autumnal frost Minimum temperature of the first autumnal frost September October mean temperature (olive) Chilling requirement (olive) Days with minimum temperature < 7 C (olive)

10 The historical series analysis slope (annual variation rate) Linear regression significativity p { moving mean (5 year) Climate variability analysis standard deviations (5 years)

11 RESULTS

12 Craddock Test (Firenzuola, Tmax) before after

13 Sub-periods analysis Craddock Test for the Tmin (Grosseto station). Annual trend

14 Sub-periods analysis Craddock Test for the minimum temperature (Grosseto station). Annual trend.

15 AGROCLIMATIC INDICES

16 Duration of vegetative season threshold 0 C Peretola - DSV 0 C threshold 10 C Montepulciano - DSV 10 C y = x y = x R2 = R2 = (Peretola station) (p<0.05) (Montepulciano station) (p<0.05)

17 Maximum and minimum temperature Increase of temperature Minimum temperature trend period July-August-September (Massa station) (p<0.001). Maximum temperature trend period July-August-September (Livorno station) (p<0.01)

18 Maximum and minimum temperature ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ April July August September Tmin ~ + ++ ~ Tmax ~ ~ /+ ++ ~

19 Grapevine phenology The sky-blue data are the ones with longer phenological phases. The red data are the stations in which the heat-need is not reach.

20 Frost and phenology frost risks la u g rn io G Tempo (anni) Lucca Montepulciano Increase of frost risks la u g rn io G Tempo (anni)

21 Flowering phase Trend of anticipation: 8 days during the study period Arezzo station (p<0.01).

22 Ripening period 21 days during the study period -21 Day! -21 giorni Grosseto (p<0.001).

23 Ripening period

24 Huglin index Values from to (+11%) quality IH High quality wine Dessert wine (t med 10) + (t max 10) IH = K

25 Huglin Index

26 Degree day accumulation Values from C Elba Calamita station(p<0.001)

27 Degree day accumulation interannual variability Moving mean and standard deviations of the STA index (Montepulciano station). The mean (55-59) is about 59 C. The δ2 shows a significant trend (p<0.01).

28 Degree day accumulation

29 Chilling requirement (hours with T<7.2 C) Reduction: 1514 hours 1113 hours y = -8,5339x ,7 R2 = 0,2091 Vernalizzazione - Massa M.ma Tempo (anni) Massa Marittima station. (p<0.001) Ore

30 September October mean temperature y = 0,0229x - 28,075 2 R = 0,0923 p<0, Temperatura ( C) Tempo (anni)

31 Conclusions Better quality of the data thank to the homogenization Increase of Tmin, Tmax, degree day accumulation Tendency of the anticipation for the phenological phases > Risks (late frost) Fast growth rate < time for ripening Lengthening of growing season increase of Huglin index increase inter annual variability Shorten Affecting productions and quality Chilling period problems for the optimal threshold for the olive

32 Thank you for your attention

Current trends of agroclimatic indices applied to grapevine and olive tree in central Italy

Current trends of agroclimatic indices applied to grapevine and olive tree in central Italy UNIVERSITY OF FLORENCE Department of Agronomy and Land Management Current trends of agroclimatic indices applied to grapevine and olive tree in central Italy Simone Orlandini, Valentina Di Stefano, Annalena

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