Vineyard Cash Flows Tremain Hatch

Transcription

1 Vineyard Cash Flows Tremain Hatch

2 New grape growers Contemplating retirement or other transitions and considering viticulture and winemaking Alternative crop to existing farm operation Questions for any new grape grower: 1. Do they understand the labor and capital demands? 2. What are their financial expectations? How does grape growing compare to other investment opportunities 3. What is their market?

3 What information is available to new grape growers VT resources Wine Grape Production Guide for Eastern North America (NRAES, 2008) Vineyard Financial Calculator Network with industry members Experience Recordkeeping

4 Rules and reminders 1. You ve got to give up something to get something. - Life is a series of tradeoffs! 2. If it costs more than it s worth, don t do it. - Rocket science, huh? 3. Twenty years is a long time

5 What does a vineyard cost? Why that is a complicated question? Materials Labor Time scale

6 Total Costs Total cost of operation = Capital Expenditures+ Expenses Capital Expenditures= long lived and used in normal operations e.g. tractor, vineyard Expenses= not long lived e.g. canopy management labor Must be able to cover TOTAL COSTS in the Long Run to remain in business Revenues must be > Total Costs in Long Run

7 Cumulative Cash Flows Costs Expenses Fixed assets Investments Revenue Grape Purchase agreements or vineyard leases

8 Capital Expenditures Vineyard Total ~22,000/acre Trellis Hardware ~3,000 Labor : trellis install ~6,000 (~450 hours) o Vines ~4,000 Labor : planting vines ~3,000 (~250 hours) Deer Fence ~7,000* Irrigation ~3,000 Allocated? Fixed costs Not allocated? *vineyard size

9 Capital expenditures Equipment Tractor - 40,000-65,000 Sprayer ~ 5,000-18,000 Rotary Mower ~2,500 Hand tools ~300 Others Utility Vehicle ~8,500 Herbicide sprayer ~2,000 Pickup truck ~ 40,000 Etc. 16,000 hr. 2,000 hr. 2,000 hr. 3,000 hr. 1,500 hr.

10 Annual costs Canopy management labor ~300 labor hours/acre Skilled labor ~50 hours/acre Spray materials, fuel, supplies ~1,000/acre Management cost* ~1,000/acre *Economy of scale

11 Annual costs: labor Vineyard labor Range (hours per acre) low estimate high estimate pruning + tying annual trellis maintenance 5 20 shoot thinning shoot positioning leaf pulling crop thinning hedging 5 15 harvest spraying mowing 3 10 scouting total hours

12 Revenue 3 5 tons of fruit at ~2,000 6,000-10,000 income per acre Excellent fruit quality Compromised fruit does not hold this value

13 How did we do? Annual Costs Canopy management labor ~300 labor hours/acre Skilled labor ~50 hours/acre Spray materials, fuel, supplies ~1,000/acre Management cost ~1,000/acre Revenue 4 tons of high quality fruit 4 x 2,000 8,000 7,000 8,000

14 Vineyard Financial Calculator Audience Those not yet in the wine industry Independent grape grower Simple question with a complicated answer What does it cost to establish a vineyard? Planning tool

15 Vineyard Financial Calculator User inputs Fill in the yellow cells with your estimated parameters Modify the grey cells with discretion - these factors may be out of your control Vine density (feet) Vines per acre [calculated - do not modify cell] Row length (feet) Deer fence (yes, no) row width vine spacing yes Acres Crop production (crop per foot of row){suggested values:1-2 lbs.} Yield (tons per acre) [calculated - do not modify cell] Price per ton Labor hours per acre at full production {Estimated hours} Labor rate (per hour) Spray costs (fuel and materials) {500-1,500/per acre/per year} Cost of capital , ,000 6% Search engine Vineyard Financial Calculator

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18 Recommendations Owners must appreciate that a vineyard is a laborand capital-intensive enterprise It takes considerable time (10 to 15 years) for a vineyard to become profitable, perhaps never if scale of operation is too small relative to capital investment. Row spacing and vine training, which affect yield, will have a major impact on vineyard profitability. Capital and operating costs discourage many from this enterprise.

19 Ideal Vineyard Excellent vineyard site Equipment matches the scale of the operation Experienced management Excellent variety to site matching In some cases, a mixed portfolio of varieties allowing high yields of high quality fruit

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21 Al s 3 Secrets to Economics 1. You ve got to give up something to get something. - Life is a series of tradeoffs! 2. If it costs more than it s worth, don t do it. - Rocket science, huh? 3. Just because you can pay for it doesn t mean you can afford it. - Look at all the costs involved - what time frame is used *Slide from Dr. Alex White

22 Control Planning Execution Recordkeeping 1. Planning 2. Recordkeeping 3. Control Compare Plan to records The process of measuring performance, and comparing performance with the standards established in the plan, and making adjustments to achieve the desired goals

23 Length of Run Short Run Immediate future (today) to the next few years Long Run The long term future All costs are variable in the long run

24 Business plan Roadmap for the business Operations Management Finance Marketing

25 Sensitivity Analysis This table projects the annual net income from the entire vineyard acreage in year 10 (full production) with a number of different crop levels and crop values. This table uses the fixed cost projections. Whole vineyard net income in year 10 Crop value (/ton) Yield (tons/acre) ,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 (127,616) (116,366) (105,116) (93,866) (82,616) (71,366) (111,866)(96,116) (98,366) (80,366) (84,866) (64,616) (71,366) (48,866) (57,866) (33,116) (44,366) (17,366) (80,366) (64,616) (48,866) (33,116) (17,366) (62,366) (44,366) (26,366) (8,366) 9,634 (44,366) (24,116) (3,866) 16,384 36,634 (26,366) (3,866) 18,634 41,134 63,634 (8,366) 16,384 41,134 65,884 90,634 9,634 36,634 63,634 90, ,634 (1,616) 27,634 56,884 86, , ,634 14,134 45,634 77, , , ,634 29,884 63,634 97, , , ,634 2,600 (60,116) (30,866) (1,616) 27,634 56,884 86, , , , , ,384