Global Rum Insights Edition. IWSR Data, Forecasts

Transcription

1 Global Rum Insights 2018 Edition IWSR Data, Forecasts

2 About this report We ve taken a fresh look at how to deliver spirits category insight. This reports series is focused on providing data with meaning, backed up with actionable insights. Discover the essentials for your business, and what will drive profit and growth. Gain the most important global strategic insight, and quickly. Grab the facts and use them - instantly. Use this report to gain a global view on the category with its: top-down world drivers of leading markets, consumers and product innovation; future category growth hotspots - visualised; top markets, brands, owners - ranked by volume and value; insider information from leading brand owners; Essential insight - in one quick-to-use package.

3 About our analysts Richard Woodard A trained newspaper journalist, Richard Woodard has been writing about the wine and spirits industries since 2000, including stints as editor of Wine & Spirit International, The Drinks Bulletin and The Spirits Business. He is a regular freelance contributor to a wide range of trade and consumer drinks magazines and websites, and has been writing regularly for just-drinks since 2006, including a monthly column on the international white spirits sector. Humphrey Serjeanston In his six years at the IWSR Humphrey has covered major markets in Europe, South America and the Middle East/North Africa, and currently looks after Italy, Greece, Turkey, Malta and Egypt. Prior to joining the IWSR Humphrey gained extensive experience in marketing and corporate communications in publishing and investment banking following a degree in French and Italian at Cambridge and a stage at the European Commission in Brussels. He is fluent in French, Italian and Spanish and in 2012 qualified for the Advanced WSET Level 3 award in wine and spirits. Alexander Smith Alex has been with the IWSR for 15 years and has reported from all corners of the globe. He has a wide contact base and deep understanding of the global markets having written about the alcohol industry for 24 years. Before joining the IWSR, Alex worked for Shanken International in London and New York and UPI on Capitol Hill.

4 4 Table of contents 01 Insights Spain 85 Italy 92 Asia-Pacific 98 1 Australia Market conditions 2 CIS 105 Market key views 5 Russia 106 Future category prospects 8 Africa & Middle East Consumer drivers 13 South Africa 113 Consumer key views 16 Travel Retail 119 Product innovation 17 Product key views 19 Industry structure 20 Around the directors table 25 World view dashboard Terms & Conditions Usage & copyright statements Markets The Americas 27 United States 28 Canada 35 Dominican Republic 40 Mexico 46 Cuba 52 Venezuela 58 Europe 64 France 65 United Kingdom 72 Germany

5 5 List of tables & figures Insights Markets Top 15 markets for rum, ( 000s nine-litre cases, % CAGR) 6 Rum brands in United States, % share 2012 Top 10 markets for rum, ( 000s nine-litre cases) 7 Rum brands in United States, % share Rum brands in United States, ( 000s nine-litre cases) 32 Top 15 rum markets forecast, ( 000s nine-litre cases, % CAGR) 9 Top 15 fastest growing rum markets, ( 000s nine-litre cases, volume growth) 11 Top 20 global rum brands and owners retail values, Top five rum owners in United States, , retail value 33 Rum in United States by quality, 2012 and 2016 % share 34 Rum brands in Canada, % share ( 000s US$, CAGR) 23 Rum brands in Canada, % share 2016 Top 10 global rum brands retail values, ( 000s US$) 24 Top five rum owners in Canada, , retail value 38 Rum in Canada by quality, 2012 and 2016 % share 39 Rum brands in Dominican Republic, % share Rum brands in Dominican Republic, % share Rum brands in Dominican Republic, ( 000s nine-litre cases) 43 Top five rum owners in Dominican Republic, , retail value 44 Rum in Dominican Republic by quality, 2012 and 2016 % share 45 Rum brands in Mexico, % share Rum brands in Mexico, % share Rum brands in Mexico, ( 000s nine-litre cases) 49 Top five rum owners in Mexico, , retail value Rum in Mexico by quality, 2012 and 2016 % share Rum brands in Cuba, % share

6 6 List of tables & figures Rum brands in Cuba, % share Rum in Germany by quality, 2012 and 2016 % share 84 Rum brands in Cuba, ( 000s nine-litre cases) 55 Rum brands in Spain, % share Rum brands in Spain, % share Top five rum owners in Cuba, , retail value 56 Rum brands in Spain, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Rum in Cuba by quality, 2012 and 2016 % share 57 Top five rum owners in Spain, , retail value Rum brands in Venezuela, % share Rum brands in Venezuela, % share Rum in Spain by quality, 2012 and 2016 % share 91 Rum brands in Italy, % share Rum brands in Italy, % share Rum brands in Venezuela, ( 000s nine-litre cases) 61 Top five rum owners in Venezuela, , retail value Rum brands in Italy, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Rum in Venezuela by quality, 2012 and 2016 % share 63 Top five rum owners in Italy, , retail value Rum brands in France, % share Rum brands in France, % share Rum in Italy by quality, 2012 and 2016 % share 97 Rum brands in France, ( 000s nine-litre cases) 69 Rum brands in Australia, % share Rum brands in Australia, % share Top five rum owners in France, , retail value 70 Rum brands in Australia, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Rum in France by quality, 2012 and 2016 % share 71 Top five rum owners in Australia, , retail value Rum brands in United Kingdom, % share Rum brands in United Kingdom, % share Rum in Australia by quality, 2012 and 2016 % share 104 Rum brands in United Kingdom, ( 000s nine-litre cases) 76 Rum brands in Russia, % share Rum brands in Russia, % share Top five rum owners in United Kingdom, , retail value 77 Rum brands in Russia, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Rum in United Kingdom by quality, 2012 and 2016 % share 78 Top five rum owners in Russia, , retail value Rum brands in Germany, % share Rum brands in Germany, % share Rum in Russia by quality, 2012 and 2016 % share 111 Rum brands in Germany, ( 000s nine-litre cases) 82 Rum brands in South Africa, % share Rum brands in South Africa, % share Rum brands in South Africa, ( 000s nine-litre cases) 116 Top five rum owners in Germany, , retail value

7 7 List of tables & figures Top five rum owners in South Africa, , retail value 117 Rum in South Africa by quality, 2012 and 2016 % share 118 Rum brands in travel retail, % share Rum brands in travel retail, % share Rum brands in travel retail, ( 000s nine-litre cases) 123 Top five rum owners in travel retail, , retail value 124 Rum in travel retail by quality, 2012 and 2016 % share 125

8 Market key views Review Rum s previous status as the next big thing of the spirits industry has been tarnished by recent reversals in key markets including the US and Spain, and the category s lack of premiumisation. Insight The flipside of this is that there is plenty of room for growth for premium-plus rum, particularly in the US. Recent data and IWSR projections support a positive prognosis here. Forecast 5 Rum as a whole and Bacardi as part of that have been on a down cycle for seven to 10 years. What we have seen over the last 18 months is what we are calling a stabilisation. We think we are starting to see the beginning of a turnaround. Ned Duggan, VP and brand MD, Bacardi The picture is one of a growing emphasis on value over volume, as global sales imported rum. Strategy While the future looks bright for higher-priced rums, there are clear signs that the volume opportunity rests more with flavoured or, more accurately, spiced products, rather than the traditional segment of white rum. There is still a huge division between lifestyle and discernment marketing. Rum needs to combine both. That is the challenge for the industry. continue a slow decline, but growth is recorded at higher price-points and within Nick Blacknell, marketing director, Havana Club

9 10 Top 15 rum markets forecast, Source: IWSR 01 United States 02 France Dominican Republic 09 Cuba 06 Germany 10 Travel retail Italy United Kingdom 07 Spain Australia South Africa Canada 08 Mexico Venezuela Russia

10 18 Product innovation Importance of storytelling: The world of rum is full of in the Caribbean versus sugar beet in colder climates) stories and histories, and several brands have recently all make for a very diverse and complex category. launched products that look back, allowing rum s past There is depth not only of the flavour of rum, but in the to lend inspiration and authenticity to the brand. history of the category itself. Old-fashioned tradition: Plantation O.F.T.D. Overproof All about the image: Because the content of the bottle rum was the launch of an old-fashioned, traditional, is increasingly important, the image must follow suit. overproof dark rum. In a similar vein, Angostura 1787 is The desire to explore provenance and natural beauty named to commemorate the date the first sugar mill has led to more natural materials wood, twine, leather was opened on the island of Trinidad. and so on being used in rum packaging. Maritime tradition: A few British-produced rums have Quality gap: Generally, the quality gap between rum recently been launched, all building on the category s and other prestige categories such as Scotch and even maritime links. Halewood Wines & Spirits has launched Cognac is closing. The multinationals are bringing a premium, small-batch, single-cask dark rum to its out super-premium and extra-aged variants, which in Liverpool spirits line. SeaWolf, launched late in 2016, turn help to raise rum s image. It is also making it more has been described as the first white rum distilled in relevant to such high-end channels as the premium on- Scotland. premise or travel retail. Beyond the Caribbean: Increasingly, rums are produced More than cocktails: For instance, Havana Club outside the Caribbean. A recent launch is Marama, a innovations such as Máximo, Selección de Maestros spiced rum from Fiji. Different production techniques, and now Tributo are helping to create a halo for the regional preferences and base ingredients (sugarcane category and making consumers aware that rum is about more than cocktails.

11 Russia 01. Market overview 02. Top rum brands in Russia, % CAGR Top five rum owners in Russia, Rum in Russia by quality,

12 107 Russia The single largest factor affecting Russia s alcohol Consumers with more money to spend may trade up Bacardi and Captain Morgan once again dominated market over the next five years will be its economic from standard to premium brands, while those who can the category and their annual battle for consumers situation. The country s GDP returned to growth in no longer afford value brands at their new prices will saved the market from more serious decline. Rum 2017, signalling that Russia is emerging from the deep continue to turn to the black market. should return to growth in line with economic economic crisis brought about by low oil prices and improvements. foreign sanctions that have drastically hit consumer spending since This gradual increase in purchasing power, together It should be noted that there is considerable segment blur, with Russians now able to trade up to higher Bacardi, the market leader, has seen sales fall by more segments thanks to the deep discounting that has than 130,000 cases between 2014 and It is also become prevalent throughout the marketplace. under pressure from Captain Morgan, which had been with an LDA population that is forecast to remain growing rapidly until 2016, when it fell back slightly. stable, should lead to conservative growth in most wine and spirits categories during the forecast period. Bacardi Oakheart has been performing well, but there As Russian consumers move out of the economic slump, accelerated growth should be witnessed in categories and segments that grew even during the While an increase in purchasing power will lead to crisis. Unfortunately rum wasn t particularly on-trend increased spending on alcohol, this will be tempered by before the crisis. It suffers from a lack of image. the Russian Government s ongoing dealcoholisation programme, the central pillars of which are an increase in minimum retail prices for spirits and the banishing of The rum market consolidated further in All but the unlicensed production particularly vodka from the largest players either left the market or saw their sales off-trade. suffer after being forced to raise their prices. are some doubts how closely Russians identify it as a rum.

13 b b Rum brands in Russia, % share 2012 Rum brands in Russia, % share 2016 Source: IWSR Source: IWSR BACARDI RUM 54.8% BACARDI RUM 42.0% 32.0% CAPTAIN MORGAN RUM 17.7% CAPTAIN MORGAN RUM SHARK TOOTH RUM 0.0% SHARK TOOTH RUM 6.1% HAVANA CLUB RUM 5.5% HAVANA CLUB RUM 4.7% BARCELO RUM 3.4% BARCELO RUM 3.6% CARTA VIEJA RUM 2.2% CARTA VIEJA RUM 1.0% ANGOSTURA RUM 1.1% ANGOSTURA RUM 0.7% BRUGAL RUM 0.4% BRUGAL RUM 0.5% CASTILLO RUM 0.3% CASTILLO RUM 0.3% SANTIAGO DE CUBA RUM 0.6% SANTIAGO DE CUBA RUM 0.3% 108

14 110 Top five rum owners in Russia, , retail value Source: IWSR Owner % share 12 % share 16 $114,371.0 $133,698.8 $168,433.3 $203,858.7 $222, % 100.0% Bacardi $64,289.1 $63,929.5 $89,718.4 $100,482.7 $98, % 44.2% Diageo $18,616.1 $35,215.4 $42,884.4 $70,359.2 $82, % 36.9% Pernod Ricard $8,928.3 $7,320.6 $7,736.6 $7,732.6 $13, % 6.1% Barcelo $3,582.4 $3,052.8 $1,821.3 $301.9 $7, % 3.5% $1,141.8 $2,047.3 $1,306.0 $2,316.2 $1, % 0.8% $17,813.3 $22,133.1 $24,966.7 $22,666.2 $18, % 8.5% Total Angostura Others Top five rum owners in Russia, , retail value (000 s US$) Source: IWSR $120,000.0 $100,000.0 $80,000.0 $60,000.0 $40,000.0 $20,000.0 $ Bacardi 2013 Diageo 2014 Pernod Ricard 2015 Barcelo 2016 Angostura

15 126 Usage & copyright statements This is a single-user licensed edition This report is provided for individual use only. Therefore this publication, or any part of it, may not be shared, copied, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or be transmitted in any form by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without the prior written permission of Aroq Limited and The IWSR. If you would like to share this report with your colleagues, please order additional copies or an enterprise-licensed edition by contacting: James Jordan Senior Account Manager, just-drinks.com Tel: +44 (0) james.jordan@aroq.com Copyright statement 2018 All content copyright Aroq Limited and The IWSR. All rights reserved. This report is the product of extensive research work. It is protected by copyright under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act The authors of Aroq Limited s and The IWSR s research reports are drawn from a wide range of professional and academic disciplines. The facts within this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. All information within this study has been reasonably verified to the author s and publisher s ability, but neither accept responsibility for loss arising from decisions based on this report. Other research available from just-drinks and The IWSR Visit this page for further catalogue details: You can also exclusively purchase any of The IWSR s reports here: Further just-drinks research is available here: For information on any of The IWSR s and just-drinks online subscription services, consultancy or other publications, please contact James Jordan.