QUARTER FOUR INVESTMENT OVERVIEW 2018

Transcription

1 ASCINA FRANCIA - RIOJA ALTA RIOJA GRAN RESERVA DUHART LICELLA CLASSICO SUPERIORE TERRE DI CARIANO - CHAPOUTIER ROTIE TURQUE - JOSEPH FAIVELEY MAZIS CHAMBERTIN - LEOVILLE USBOURNE BLANC DE BLANCS - PONSOT CHAPELLE CHAMBERTIN ES - BOUTISSE - DUCRU BEAUCAILLOU - MEYNEY - PETIT MOUTON NTRACHET - TROTTEVIEILLE - PELICAN ARBOIS SAVAGNIN OUILLE E ROUGE - BEAUSEJOUR DUFFAU - PONSOT CLOS ROCHE VV MBRAYS - POUJEAUX - DOMAINE LEFLAIVE BIENVENUES BATARD D ROUSSEAU CHARMES CHAMBERTIN - MOET & CHANDON OY CLOS VOUGEOT - BAHANS HAUT BRION - BENJAMIN CHAMP GAIN - MASSETO - MICHEL OGIER COTE ROTIE ZIN (POMEROL) - TUA RITA REDIGAFFI - LAVILLE HAUT TI BRUNELLO MONTALCINO RISERVA - SAINTAYME NOELLAT NUITS SAINT GEORGES CRAS - HARLAN OAD RIESLING BLOCK 1 - JOSEPH FAIVELEY LOT ROMANEE SAINT VIVANT - CLOS ST JEAN X MACHINA - EVANGILE - PONSOT GRIOTTE EAUNEUF DU PAPE - BEYCHEVELLE - CLOS CHAMPAGNE - FELTON ROAD PINOT NOIR CORTON CHARLEMAGNE - FELTON ROAD ROUHIN GRIOTTE CHAMBERTIN - KRUG N DOM PERIGNON ROSE - TIGNANELLO GARTEN GROSSES GEWACHS - PICHON - DOMAINE LEROY VOSNE ROMANEE ES - DRC ROMANEE CONTI - GUIGAL RT DOM RUINART - COMTES LAFON ILLE LAS CASES - CANON GAFFELIERE E - DRC ECHEZEAUX - FLEUR PETRUS ENAC - CHAPELLE MISSION - CLINET Z - OPUS ONE - DOMAINE LEFLAIVE SCOMBES - DUJAC CLOS ROCHE ER VV FRANCAISES - PAGODES COS UT BRION - CHENADE - GAJA COSTA BERTIN CLOS ST JACQUES - LOUIS US - CHAPOUTIER ERMITAGE BLANC MITAGE CHAPELLE - FELTON ROAD MILION) - CLARENCE HAUT BRION CK 5 - SMITH HAUT LAFITTE - COS RE - PINGUS - HENRI JAYER NUITS GEORGES ROUMIER CHAMBOLLE LA - BRUNO GIACOSA BAROLO - DOMAINE JEAN-LOUIS CHAVE LAFITE - VIEUX CHATEAU CERTAN C MUGNIER CHAMBOLLE MUSIGNY AL BLANC - ARROSEE - JOSEPH LLINGER RD - JACQUES FREDERIC BONNES MARES - LOUIS ROEDERER E - GUIGAL COTE ROTIE MOULINE UT BATAILLEY - ARMAND ROUSSEAU ITAGE PAVILLON - AUSONE - ROCHE LALANDE - FRATELLI ALESSANDRIA LAUX - BRANCAIA BLU - BRUNO OIX BEAUCAILLOU - DOME - COMTE R CRU - HAUT BRION - SCREAMING AMPAGNE ROSE - DOMAINE LEROY S - DOMAINE JEAN-LOUIS CHAVE - FREDERIC MAGNIEN GEVREY ROGER SIR WINSTON CHURCHILL HSCHILD - SOLAIA - BEAUCASTEL UINAULT L'ENCLOS - MOUTON LARTIC LAGRAVIERE BLANC - GAJA CLOS GOISSES BRUT - ANGELUS NDRIE - COMTES LAFON MEURSAULT S - CONSEILLANTE - HENSCHKE HILL ERCARLO - PONTET CANET - FELTON RN - MONTROSE - PIN - BRUNO LLETTO - GIACOMO CONTERNO - PEBY FAUGERES - CHAPOUTIER IE - CLARENDON HILLS ASTRALIS ELLO MONTALCINO TENUTA NUOVA UNICO - MARGAUX - TORTOCHOT NDE ANNEE - COUTET (BARSAC) CHAMBERTIN CLOS ST JACQUES MITAGE ERMITE - HOSANNA - HAUT RED - GAJA SPERSS - DRC TACHE SIGNY AMOUREUSES - TRAPET PERE - BEAUCASTEL CHATEAUNEUF DU H PHELPS INSIGNIA - PONSOT CLOS NELLO MONTALCINO - EMMANUEL OS PARANTOUX - PETIT CHEVAL - EGLISE CLINET - FORTS LATOUR EORGES ROUMIER BONNES MARES EAC - YQUEM - HENRI JAYER VOSNE - TRAPET PERE ET FILS CHAMBERTIN IGNON - CRUZELLES - MONDOTTE ILD & CONCHA Y TORO ALMAVIVA ES - TROTANOY - GAY - JANASSE PEGAU CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE NFURON ROMANEE SAINT VIVANT INE LEROY NUITS SAINT GEORGES BERNARD DUGAT-PY CHAMBERTIN N VV - BONNEAU MARTRAY CORTON E MUSIGNY VV - PETER SISSECK Y VOLNAY SANTENOTS - GIACOMO - PAVILLON ROUGE - TROPLONG ARD CHASSAGNE MONTRACHET D - COMTE VOGUE CHAMBOLLE RAND PUY LACOSTE - GIACOMO RANCIA - RIOJA ALTA RIOJA GRAN - CECILIA BERETTA VALPOLICELLA QUARTER FOUR INVESTMENT OVERVIEW COMTES LAFON MEURSAULT GOUTTE D'OR - LEOVILLE LAS CASES - C CHAPELLE AUSONE - DRC ECHEZEAUX - FLEUR PETRUS GRUAUD CHAPELLE MISSION - CLINET - DRAGON QUINTUS - ORMES PEZ - O CHEVALIER MONTRACHET - LASCOMBES - DUJAC CLOS ROCHE - TERT FRANCAISES - PAGODES COS - RONAN BY CLINET - MISSION HAUT B RUSSI - FOURRIER GEVREY CHAMBERTIN CLOS ST JACQUES - LO DOMINUS - CHAPOUTIER ERMITAGE BLANC OREE - PAUL JABOUL FELTON ROAD RIESLING DRY - CANON (SAINT EMILION) - CLAREN PINOT NOIR BLOCK 5 - SMITH HAUT LAFITTE - COS D'ESTOURNE HENRI JAYER NUITS SAINT GEORGES MURGERS - GEORGES CRAS - RAUZAN SEGLA - BRUNO GIACOSA BAROLO FA DOMAINE JEAN-LOUIS CHAVE HERMITAGE BLANC - CARR CERTAN - LAFLEUR - JACQUES FREDERIC MU AMOUREUSES - PALMER - CHEVAL BLANC - ARROS MARES - BOLLINGER RD - JACQUES FREDERIC M BONNES MARES - LOUIS ROEDERER CRISTAL - T COTE ROTIE MOULINE - JOSEPH DROUHIN ARMAND ROUSSEAU CHAMBERTIN - CHAP AUSONE - ROCHE BELLENE CLOS ROCHE ALESSANDRIA BAROLO GRAMOLERE - P BRUNO GIACOSA BARBARESCO ASILI - COMTE VOGUE CHAMBOLLE MUSIGN SCREAMING EAGLE - TAITTINGER COMTE LEROY NUITS SAINT GEORGES BOUDOT HERMITAGE - CLOS MARQUIS - CHAMBERTIN CAZETIERS - POL ROGER MACQUIN - LAFITE ROTHSCHILD - SOLA DU PAPE - QUINAULT L'ENCLOS - MOU MALARTIC LAGRAVIERE BLANC - GAJ CLOS GOISSES BRUT - ANGELU MONTLANDRIE - COMTES LAFON M MESNIL - PETRUS - CONSEILLANTE - H - SAN GIUSTO PERCARLO - PONTET C BANNOCKBURN - MONTROSE - PI ROCCHE FALLETTO - GIACOMO MONFORTINO - PEBY FAUGERES - ERMITE - PAVIE - CLARENDON HILLS A NERI BRUNELLO MONTALCINO TENU SICILIA UNICO - MARGAUX - TORTOC GRANDE ANNEE - COUTET (BARSAC CHAMBERTIN CLOS ST JACQUES ERMITAGE ERMITE - HOSANNA - HAUT RED - GAJA SPERSS - DRC TACHE MUSIGNY AMOUREUSES - TRAPE CHAMBERTIN - BEAUCASTEL CHATE PERRIN - JOSEPH PHELPS INSIGNIA - P SANTI BRUNELLO MONTALCINO - ROMANEE CROS PARANTOUX - P VOUGEOT VV - EGLISE CLINET - FOR SEGUR - GEORGES ROUMIER BONN DENIS - FIGEAC - YQUEM - HENRI JAY COMTESSE - TRAPET PERE ET FIL CABERNET SAUVIGNON - CRUZELLES ROTHSCHILD & CONCHA Y TORO ALM MARES - TROTANOY - GAY - JANASS PEGAU CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE CONFURON ROMANEE SAINT VIVA DOMAINE LEROY NUITS SAINT GEOR BERNARD DUGAT-PY CHAMBERTIN - F VV - BONNEAU MARTRAY CORTON C MUSIGNY VV - PETER SISSECK (AL VOLNAY SANTENOTS - GIACOMO C PAVILLON ROUGE - TROPLONG MO CHASSAGNE MONTRACHET BOUD COMTE VOGUE CHAMBOLLE MUSIGN LACOSTE - GIACOMO CONTERNO BA ALTA RIOJA GRAN RESERVA DU VALPOLICELLA CLASSICO SUPER CHAPOUTIER ERMITAGE MEAL - GUIGA FAIVELEY MAZIS CHAMBERTIN - LEO RIG - GUSBOURNE BLANC DE B CHAMBERTIN - DRC RICHEBOURG - LY BEAUCAILLOU - MEYNEY - PETIT BATARD MONTRACHET - TROTTEVIEI OUILLE - MIRAVAL COTES DE PRO DUFFAU - PONSOT CLOS ROCHE VV LAMBRAYS - POUJEAUX - DOMAINE MONTRACHET - LATOUR - AR CHAMBERTIN - MOET & CHANDON DO CLOS VOUGEOT - BAHANS HAUT BRIO MONTRACHET CHAMP GAIN - MASSE GAJA SORI SAN LORENZO - GAZIN (P LAVILLE HAUT BRION - FARGUES MONTALCINO RISERVA - SAINTAYME NOELLAT NUITS SAINT GEORGES CRA FELTON ROAD RIESLING BLOCK 1 - CLOS DE BEZE - ARLOT ROMANEE CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE DEUS EX M GRIOTTE CHAMBERTIN - CLOS PAP BEYCHEVELLE - CLOS FOURTET - TAI FELTON ROAD PINOT NOIR CORNISH P CHARLEMAGNE - FELTON ROAD P DROUHIN GRIOTTE CHAMBERTIN - CHANDON DOM PERIGNON ROSE JORDAN JESUITENGARTEN GROSSES MALARTIC LAGRAVIERE - DOMAI BEAUMONTS - ECHO LYNCH BAGES - COTE ROTIE LANDONNE - RUINART MEURSAULT GOUTTE D'OR - LEOVILLE CANTEMERLE - CHAPELLE AUSONE - D

2 Introduction Introduction Portfolio based investment grade wine is one of the most established alternative assets available to investors looking for tax-efficient, asset backed diversification and capital growth opportunities. Over 10 years, Cult Wines has become the global leader in providing analytically based, fine wine investment advice, both discretionally, and non-discretionally, utilising algorithmically based models across historic and projected data. This, combined with over 150-man years experience in the fine wine markets has driven our Asset Under Management (AUM) 98 million. During 2018, our index returned 6.26% and since %, annualised at 9.17%. With low interest rates, inflation concerns, low returns from traditional financial assets and an uncertain economic outlook, many investors are looking at ways to enhance portfolio yield, diversify and gain consistent capital appreciation. This is the 4th quarterly overview summarising both the global financial and fine wine markets performance in Cult Wines Index Performance Cult Wines Index Period From Period Until Total Performance CAGR Q /09/ /12/ % - YTD /12/ /12/ % - 2 Years 31/12/ /12/ % 8.27% 3 Years 31/12/ /12/ % 13.43% 4 Years 31/12/ /12/ % 10.30% 5 Years 31/12/ /12/ % 7.13% All Time 31/10/ /12/ % 9.17% Source: Cult Wines Index (Powered by Liv-ex). 3

3 Global Markets Review Fine Wine Market Overview Global Markets Overview Additionally, the UK pound fell to a 20-month low against US dollar on the news that a no-deal Brexit scenario could be a possibility. Global Equities: 2018 has been a difficult year for global equity markets. Despite generally strong fundamentals, S&P 500 declined 14% for the quarter and the MSCI World index1 fell 8.71% in 2018 as investors concerns over the health of the global economy remained, which led to an increase in volatility. Additionally, the MSCI Emerging Market stocks fell 14.58% for 2018, pushing investors to consider switching to more defensive stocks in the past few months. Meanwhile, most economic indicators continued to point that Europe is still in a low growth environment, despite ECB (European Central Bank) bringing an end to the QE (Quantitative Easing) programme in December. Hang Seng also declined considerably in Q4. Overall, the second half of 2018 has seen most defensive sectors outperformed the broader market globally, signalling the theme of a slowing economy could be playing out over the course of US Equities: In 2018, US equities markets have delivered disappointing news reflected on both yearly and quarterly returns. With a cautious mood remaining among investors, the market also seemed to start worrying about that the US is in its late economic cycle and recession risks might rise. S&P 500 posted the worst quarterly result of the year, losing almost 10% for December. In particular, defensive sectors outperformed the cyclical sectors for the first time since 2016, with MSCI USA cyclicals index posting a significant loss of almost 16% over the Q4. Among the worst performing cyclical sectors are material and financials. Similarly, the industry-heavy Dow Jones Average plunged 11.8% in Q4, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 17.5%. UK Equities: Outside of the US, UK s equity market has suffered its worst year since the financial crisis, with FTSE 100 dropping 12.5% for The challenging environment for UK retailers continued. Persistent uncertainty surrounding Brexit continued to weigh on pounds and investor sentiment toward domestic equities. However, wages continued to increase at a fastest rate in almost a decade, while the numbers of people at work remains at a record high. FTSE % DOW JONES % HANG SENG -6.99% GOLD 7.73% Source: Bloomberg. European Equities: December has been a difficult month for the European equity markets, with France s CAC 40 and Germany s DAX 30 ending the year with a significant quarterly loss of 13% and 13.7% respectively. Additionally, the European Central Bank ended its quantitative easing programme in December, despite a recent slowdown faced the European economic recovery. Eurozone business confidence has experienced a sharp slowdown throughout 2018 as geological concerns including Brexit and Italian politics remained, and economic indicators in Europe disappointed through the fourth quarter of Coupled with the tightening rate environment, the Eurozone PMI Composite a measure of the economic health, registered a 4-year low reading to 51.1 in December, also suggesting the business outlook in Europe is far from positive. Emerging Markets Equities: Emerging markets equities fell significantly in 2018 as both slowing economy and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on market sentiment. With Chinese market experiencing the worst hit, which is largely attributable to China s intensifying trade disputes with the US, China s benchmark CSI 300 ended the year close to 3000, a 25.3% decline from Meanwhile, Beijing reported its quarterly GDP growth rate slowed to 6.5%, representing China s weakest figure in almost a decade. Similarly, Argentina s equity dropped nearly 50% in 2018, with its currency declining in value by almost half. The rising dollar continued to be challenging for individual countries, which have large debts denominated in US dollar. The MSCI Emerging markets index dropped 14.6% in 2018 and 7.5% in Q4. Commodities: The broader commodity market has trended lower for the second half of 2018, with the uncertainty of global trade war continuing to weigh on the market sentiment. Bloomberg Commodity Index closed down 9.43% in Energy prices plunged in the 4th quarter, with disappointing losses coming from oil and natural gas. Oil prices were particularly volatile in the fourth quarter, with Brent Crude oil dropping 35%. By contrast, gold prices (in USD) gained 7.7% in Q4, partly in response to the Fed s latest rate increase, which could lead to economic worries that economy might slow down. Fine Wine Market Overview What do you need to know in Q4: Liv-ex 1000 had finished the year with a solid gain of 10%. Burgundy 150, Bordeaux Legends 50 and Champagne 50 were the top 3 performing regions for Burgundy 150 had its best year in a decade, rising 34.9%. Next to Burgundy 150, Rhone 100 is one of the only two regions that managed to deliver positive gains in Q4. Champagne 50 fell sharply after previous 9 month s gains in Q4 but ended the year 7.8% higher. Italy 100 fell 1.3%, while Bordeaux 500 closed the quarter 2.1% weaker. [1] The MSCI World index captures large and mid-cap representative across 23 Developed Markets countries. With 1633 constituents, the index covers almost 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. [2] Last 3 months return of MSCI World Cyclical sectors: % and % (2018); MSCI World Defensive sectors: -8.96% and -6.06% (2018). 4 5

4 Quarter Four Trade Overview Quarter Four Trade Overview Quarter Four Trade Overview Burgundy - Leading the way in 2018 The latest yearly return of Bordeaux Legend 50 suggests that the mood on older vintages of Bordeaux have brightened somewhat, despite last quarter s muted performance. The Legend 50 index, which tracked a selection of 50 Bordeaux wines from exceptional older vintages (from 1982) on its monthly movement, rose 8.3% this year, compared to previous annual return of 5.5%. Additionally, in Bordeaux, with Haut Brion leading the First Growth s trade in the last week of 2018, investor confidence for the First Growths of Bordeaux seemed to have returned to the market. In December, Bordeaux has seen its trading volume improve by 5% to 58%. 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 34.9% Champagne 50 moved one place down to the third-best performing regions after Burgundy and Bordeaux Legend 50, delivering an annual return of 7.8%. Having recently been considered as an investment asset, Champagne has seen consolidated prices despite some volatility surrounding other major regions for the past few months. Increased market share and the appetite generated from landmark celebrations are also positives for Champagne market next year. 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% 11.9% 5.9% 8.8% Liv-ex 1000 the broadest measure of the fine wine market - has delivered a solid gain of 10% for 2018, extending its 2017 gain but at a slower pace. In Q4, most of the Liv-ex sub-indices made loss. Encouragingly, Liv-ex s Burgundy 150 and Rhone 100 were the sole advancers in a broader calm market, gaining quarterly returns of 8.8% and 1.8%, respectively. Moreover, Burgundy, a wine region that has consistently proven its return potential, had its best year for the past 10 years, with its benchmark index Burgundy 150 rising nearly 35% for Outside the Liv-ex 1000 index, the newly launched California 50 registered a gain of 21% last year. 1.8% 8.3% Q3 change % Q4 change % 2018 Yearly Return Burgundy 150 Bordeaux 500 Champagne 50 Bordeaux Legend 50 Italy 100 Rhone 100 Rest of the World Source: Liv-ex All told, Burgundy continued to prove popular as consumer interest converge on the region. Also, with the First Growths capturing investor s optimism and regaining momentum in the second half of 2018, Bordeaux s market trade share rose in the December, helped by improved trading activity among some on-vintage Bordeaux classics. While global equities markets were all in sell-off mode, the Liv-ex 1000 has posted positive returns for every quarter in Market Trends: Burgundy CW Burgundy index rose by 27.1% for 2018 (4.4% in Q4) as global thirst for the region continued. Since 2009, CW Burgundy index has climbed 173%, annualised at 11.8%. 1,222 clients currently hold Burgundy as part of their portfolio (a 58% jump from 2017). Burgundy accounts for 21% of CW s total current holdings. Burgundy s deal activity in CW increased 73.3% from In October, two bottles of 1945 Romanee-Conti set new record for the most expensive wines ever sold at auction. For investors, Rhone has had a strong year with encouraging price performance and improved brand awareness. The Rhone has underperformed other wine regions for the past few years, but that image is now going to change with new level of interest in its hidden value. Liv-ex s Rhone 100 index has returned 7% for 2018, and Rhone s trade share peaked at 6.7% in September. On top of that, the performance gap between Rhone and other major sub-indices has gradually tightened for the past few months. The Rhone s improvement in performance in 2018 is largely attributed to some big names that can be found from both the South and the North. Out of the Rhone 100 constituents, the names that stand out among these major movers are Domaine Jean-Louis Chave, Hermitage and Guigal, La La s with some of their recent vintages posting attractive price return for the past few months. [3] No. of transactions for 2017 was 708; No. of transactions for 2018 was 1,227. [4] One is sold for US$558,000 and the other one for US$496,000 respectively. 6 7

5 Cult Wines Performance in Quarter Four Cult Wines Performance in Quarter Four Cult Wines Performance in Quarter Four CW sub-index performance in four quarters of 2018 Cult Wines Sub-Indices Performance 25.0% Bordeaux -1.14% (+3.30% YTD) Burgundy +4.41% (+27.10% YTD) USA -0.07% (+6.14% YTD) 20.0% 15.0% Q4 change % Champagne +0.57% (+7.17% YTD) Italy +0.39% (+0.98% YTD) R.O.W* +1.15% (+6.67% YTD) Quarterly Performance % 10.0% 5.0% Q3 change % Q2 Change % Q1 Change % 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% * R.O.W (Rest of World) contains Australia, Chile, Rhone and Spain. Source: Cult Wines Index (Powered by Liv-ex). Bordeaux Champagne ROW Burgundy Italy Rhone USA Dec Dec Wrapping up the year with steady performance, CW has had a good year, remarkable not only for its stable returns, but also for its consistency and lack of volatility. CW main index returned 6.3% for the year, even as most of the equity markets declined sharply in October and stirred growing concerns over the health of the global economy. Most wines from selected regions added into CW portfolio this year have solid fundamentals and are well positioned to grow faster than the broader market. Burgundy still leads the CW Index with yearly return of 27.1%, outperforming other regions. Please be noted that CW s Burgundy index has a diverse base containing more than 400 wines in the index, in comparison to Liv-ex s Burgundy 150 index, which carries 40% in DRC may not represent CW s best performance in recent years, but its resilience in performance highlights the divergent strengths that fine wine can demonstrate as an investment asset during times of economic uncertainty. Part of CW s outperformance this year reflected the fact that a number of trends last year have been played out, with Champagne and Burgundy making their presence truly felt. As suggested by the graph above, CW s Champagne index and Burgundy index delivered positive returns in every single quarters of Moreover, CW s Rest of the World index ended the quarter 4.9% higher. Turning to other regions, CW s Bordeaux index closed the quarter with a loss of 1.1%, while Liv-ex s Legend 50 also dropped at a loss of 2.2%. Adding to that, Bordeaux s trade share hit a record low in October 5. There have been concerns that the impact of tighter global trading conditions might have a negative impact on wine investment market. However, the yearly results of the region help cheered the mood for investors with a total return of 3.3%, outperforming Liv-ex 1000 s Bordeaux 500 in Within CW s Champagne index, Krug Collection 1989, Salon Mesnil 2004 and 1999 were among the top performing wines for the year, delivering outstanding returns of 78.5% and 28.6% and 25.7% for our clients. [5] October: Bordeaux s trade share hit a record low of 56.4%. 8 9

6 Cult Wines Performance in Quarter Four 2019 Market Outlook CW s ROW index, which captures the price performance of wines from regions other than Bordeaux, Burgundy, Champagne, Italy, USA and Rhone, overall has been one of CW s best performing sub-regions, rising 10.56%, second only to CW Burgundy, up 27.1% for It has also helped lift the broader market to 6.3% gain for the year. Of the CW s ROW index constituents, Penfold Bin (Australia) and Rothschild & Concha Y Toro, Almaviva 2015 (Chile) were among the best performers in CW s USA index was up 6.14% in 2018, and the major contributors to this year s positive performance were Screaming Eagle, Colgin Cariad and Scarecrow. CW s Italy index posted flat quarterly performance. All told, expectations remain for a strong 2019, with yearly results from both CW and Liv-ex showing some of the heavily traded First Growths in Bordeaux regaining momentum and previously overlooked regions such as Rhone picking up in performance. With CW s Bordeaux (red), Rhone and USA index up moving up after hitting a 9-month low in April this year, we see generally a positive picture for the broader wine market. CW main index has delivered strong returns over the past five year. Entering into the 2019, our focus this year is to uncover value with a more diversified portfolio adopting innovative investment strategy, while providing the flexibility to adapt our positions should external market factors play out negatively Cult Wines Top Performing Wines by Region Ranking Wine Names Vintage Region Yearly Return % 1 Domaine Leroy, Corton Renardes 2009 Burgundy 250.0% 2 Georges Roumier, Bonnes Mares 2005 Burgundy 206.7% 3 Harlan Estate 2008 USA 117.1% 4 Giuseppe Mascarello, Barolo Ca D'Monprivato Morissio Riserva 2008 Italy 92.2% 5 Krug Collection 1989 Champagne 78.5% 6 Petrus 1961 Bordeaux 74.6% 7 Colgin, Cariad 2012 USA 61.1% 8 Sassicaia 2012 Italy 56.4% 9 Mouton Rothschild 1982 Bordeaux 53.7% 10 Carmes Haut Brion 2016 Bordeaux 52.7% 11 Penfolds, Bin Australia (ROW) 42.2% Cult Wines vs Liv-ex 31st December st December Chapoutier, Ermitage Greffieux 2012 Rhone 40.8% 13 Penfolds, RWT Shiraz 2014 Australia (ROW) 32.0% 14 Salon Mesnil 2004 Champagne 28.6% 15 Beaucastel, Chateauneuf Du Pape Hommage J Perrin 2007 Rhone 26.3% Market Outlook Burgundy is often considered by many wine investors as a rare-in-nature value asset compared to wines from other regions. In recent months, however, there have been concerns that a price bubble may exist in Burgundy and fear that the market has already passed its peak It is worth highlighting that the global demand for Burgundy is stronger than ever and should continue to be supported by its tight control on distribution, scarcity on production and investors diverging preference to a broader range of appellations. Thus, an adjustment in expectations should lead to a renewed focus on fundamentals (risk factors), instead of on short-term price bubbles that truly determine the intrinsic value of the Burgundy market. 31/12/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/2018 Cult Wines Index +6.26% Liv-ex Fine Wine % 31/10/ /11/ /12/2018 Turning to external factors, the impact of a slowing economy and the impact of US-China trade uncertainty on China s equity market has brought the entire investment environment under pressure and may negatively affect the fine wine market in performance

7 2019 Market Outlook Cult Wines 2018 Press Highlights In the Bordeaux market, where we have recently experienced increased volatility compared to other wine regions, we still believe those risks are manageable and less related to the general fine wine market performance, with the broader market index still posting positive returns in Also, with increased recognition of new territories and greater brand awareness, Asia has seen its demand for fine wine rise significantly in the last few years, especially for top Burgundies. We expect the global expansion of the fine wine investment market to continue in 2019, with the exposure of distinct wines from various regions increasing to an unprecedented level. In 2018, more than 5,700 wines were traded on Livex the London fine wine market trading exchange, representing a 42.5% jump from last year. CW has also seen its trading activity broaden at a faster pace in the second quarter in In particular, increased activity was particularly strong on Rhone in the last quarter of the year. The annual summary of the market suggests a trend for investors to broaden their investment approach, increasingly looking beyond Bordeaux and Burgundy to regions such as Champagne, Rhone, California and beyond. And these wines have delivered strong gains, despite coming from a lower cost base. Next year, Burgundy EP 2017 and Bordeaux EP 2018 will remain the flagship events for global investors to seek out opportunities has been the largest vintage for Burgundy since 2009, exciting both producers who have suffered nearly a decade of turbulent weather and sparse harvests and investors who have wanted to gain exposure to this prestigious region. As the fine wine market has become more active and diverse in 2018, regions such as Bordeaux and Champagne will see a continuation of long-term trends, Burgundy will continue to attract the most attention, and a number of wine producers in regions like California, Chile and Rhone could reach key tipping points. Expectations are also diverging among investor segments. In Liv-ex s Power 100, Bordeaux labels still dominated the list but with 8 wines dropping out this year, while Burgundy and Italy added 7 wines to the final list. Back in 2010, 60 wines on the list were from Bordeaux; This year, that number dropped to 45, suggesting that the market preference might shift beyond a Bordeaux-only strategy. With fine wine emerging as an investment asset offering divergent strengths to the traditional financial markets during periods of heightened volatility, more and more investors are demanding better portfolio transparency and tailored investment solutions. Cult Wines 2018 Press Highlights RBS International: Making a case for fine wine Wine is outpacing other alternative investments, including classic cars, antique furniture and diamonds-and Brexit is likely to push prices up. Read Article Cult Wines Burgundy Index Exhibits Consistently Strong Performance 30.0% 27.1% Forbes: Fine Wine Investing Counters Volatility Of Stock-Denominated Portfolios 25.0% 22.0% 21.8% As Brexit and economic uncertainty continue to drive market volatility, portfolio diversification is proving more important than ever. 20.0% 17.3% Read Article Annualied Return % 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 11.8% 3.0% 11.1% 1.2% 12.7% 3.0% 14.1% 3.9% 7.0% 9.4% 2.4% -0.2% Bloomberg: Investing in Fine Wine Is More Lucrative Than Ever Once an exotic market, parking your assets inside expensive bottles can yield tremendous profits. -5.0% All Time 7 Years 6 Years 5 Years 4 Years 3 Years 2 Years 1 Year Investment Period in Years CW Burgundy Liv-ex 100 Read Article 12 13

8 CULT WINES S O L U T I O N S F O R F I N E W I N E UK OFFICE The Clockwork Building, 45 Beavor Lane, London W6 9AR T: +44(0) E: info@cultwinesltd.com HONG KONG OFFICE 1001B 2, Kinwick Centre, 32 Hollywood Road, Central, Hong Kong T: E: hongkong@cultwinesltd.com SINGAPORE OFFICE 9 Battery Road, #09-01 MYP Centre, Singapore T: E: singapore@cultwinesltd.com wineinvestment.com Co. Reg No