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1 Trade Facilitation and Supply Chain Security: Evaluation of Integrated Cargo Containers Control (IC3) Program between Pakistan and the United States WCO-PICARD Conference September 2016 Presenter: Salamat Ali Pakistan Customs/University of Nottingham, UK Structure Introduction of IC3 Program Research Question and Findings Related Literature Data and Methodology Main Results Summary and Policy Implications 1

2 Trade Facilitation and Supply Chain Security: Evaluation of Integrated Cargo Containers Control (IC3) Program between Pakistan and the United States

3 Motivation: Trade Facilitation and Supply Chain Security 3

4 Integrated Cargo Containers Controls (IC3) Pilot project at Port Qasim, Pakistan; Southampton Port, UK; Puerto Cortès, Honduras Intrusive scanning and monitoring via live video link even before loading on vessels Limited implementation at ports of Singapore, Hong Kong and Busan (Korea) Extension of the 100% scheme to all US-bound cargo from all origins 4

5 Research Question(s) What is the impact of IC3 on firm-level exports of Pakistan to the United States? Effect of subsequent policy adjustments in 2011 to facilitate the process Examine the heterogeneity of the trade effect across firms (incumbents and switchers) Mechanisms of adjustment along: Extensive margins of firms and products Prices and quantities Over time 5

6 Preview of Results Pakistan s exports to the US relative to the EU drop by 15% in the post- IC3 period. The drop with respect to India and China is around 40%. Adjustment comes along extensive margins of firms and products as well as along margins of price and quantities. Effect of IC3 is persistent for four years until subsequent policy interventions reverse this trend to some extent. The security policy caused a cumulative loss of US market access to the tune of US$ 8 billion during

7 Related Literature Trade Costs: Arkolakis (2010); Feyrer (2009); Anderson and Van Wincoop (2003, 2004); Baier and Bergstrand (2001); Donaldson (2014) Technology and Trade: Bernhofen et al. (2015); Pascali (2014); Hummels (2007) Economic Sanctions: Afesorgbor &Mahadevan (2016); Yang et al. (2009); Caruso (2003) Trade Diversion: Yang et al. (2014); Liu et al. (2013); Carrere (2006) Supply Chain Security: Mirza and Verdier (2008); EC(2009); WCO(2008); GAO (2008) Uniqueness of this Work Exogenous nature of the shock Differential effect on trade costs across markets Unique data sets and first firm-level study to quantify the effect of typical trade restriction 7

8 Data Description Sources: Firm-level exports from Pakistan Customs and domestic sales from Inland Revenue Services (administrative datasets) Period: Jan 2000 to Dec 2015 Frequency: Transaction level Observations: 8.6 million; EU (Control)- 4.7m and US (Treatment)-3.9m Firms: 24,174 Variables: Products at HS-8 digit level, unit values, quantities, identity of exporter and importers, location of production facility of firms, location of their exporting station, mode of shipment, etc. Estimation level: Firm-product-market-year (463, 931 observations) 8

9 Influence of IC3 on US-bound Exports from Pakistan Beyond-the-border Behind-the-border Eliminating Transhipment requirements and allowing direct shipments to the US Diversion of USbound exports from all dry ports and other seaport to Qasim Port, Karachi 9

10 Effect of the IC3 on Trade Costs en Route 10

11 At- and Behind-the-Border Effect of IC3 11

12 Behind-the-Border Effect Percentage of US-bound exports handling at various stations Source: Pakistan Customs 12

13 Exports Volume Influence of IC3 on US-bound Exports Index, 2000=1 December European Union United States 13

14 Empirical Setting: Diff-in-Diff Estimation Approach First Treatment (2007) ln(x ijkt ) = β 0 + β 1 (Treat) j + β 2 (After) t + β 3 (Treat x After) jt + α i + γ k + λ t + ε ijkt...(1) X ijkt denotes the value of exports of a firm i to market j of product k at a time t (intensive margins). The export volume is measured in PKR millions. Treat is a dummy variable equal to 1 if an observation pertains to the US and 0 for the EU. After is a dummy variable equal to 1 for the period and 0 otherwise. α, γ and λ are firms, products and time fixed effects. ε ijkt is an idiosyncratic error term. Second Treatment (2011) ln(x ijkt ) = β 0 + β 1 (Treat) j + β 2 (After 1 ) t + β 3 (Treat x After 1 ) jt + β 4 (After 2 ) t+ β 5 (Treat x After 2 ) jt + α i + γ k + λ t + ε ijkt..(2) After 1 is a dummy variable equal to 1 for the period and 0 otherwise. After 2 is a dummy variable equal to 1 for the period and 0 otherwise. 14

15 Main Estimation Results The dependent variable is a log of exports per firm by destination (1) (2) (3) (4) Interaction (treat x after) 1st Treatment_ *** (0.022) *** (0.019) *** (0.018) *** (0.018) 2nd Treatment_ *** (0.018) (0.016) ** (0.015) ** (0.015) Firm FE y y y Product FE y y Time FE y R Observations 463, , , ,931 Robust standard errors are in parentheses. These coefficients were obtained using stata 13SE * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < The coefficients on other regressors and fixed effects are not reported. 15

16 Heterogeneity of the Effect across Firms The dependent variable is a log of exports per firm by destination (1) 1st Treatment_2007 x Incumbents at PQ *** (0.029) Switcher to PQ *** (0.018) Continuers at KP ** (0.075) 2nd Treatment_2011 x Incumbents at PQ (0.026) Switcher to PQ ** (0.017) Continuers at KP (0.095) R Observations 463,931 Incumbents export from Qasim port before and after IC3 while Switchers export from Karachi port and dry ports before IC3 and switch to Qasim port after IC3 16

17 Mechanisms of Adjustment 17

18 Speed of Adjustment Coeff. SE (1) (2) Interaction (treat x after) x int_ *** (0.022) int_ *** (0.024) int_ *** (0.024) int_ *** (0.024) int_ *** (0.024) int_ *** (0.024) int_ *** (0.024) int_ *** (0.025) R Observations 463,931 18

19 Summary and Conclusion We investigate the trade effect of IC3 in the wake of 9/11. The exogenous nature of this shock and its specificity to one export market allows us to use a diff-in-diff estimation approach. We find that: In the post treatment period, Pakistan s exports to the US relative to the EU drop by 15%, on average. The cumulative loss of US market access during amounts to $8 billion. Switchers bear the main loss and the subsequent adjustments reverse this declining trend to some extent. These findings have policy implications to use similar technologies to secure supply chain and facilitate trade flows in the wake of changing security situation in different parts of the world. 19

20 Thanks for your attention Q&A 20

21 Integrated Cargo Containers Controls (IC3) 21 Source: European Commission (2009)

22 Main Estimation Results ln(x ijkt )= β 0 + β 1 (Treat) j + β 2 (After) t + β 3 (Treat x After) jt + α i + γ k + λ t + ε ijkt The dependent variable is log of exports per firm by destination Interaction Term (Treat x After) Treatment *** (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) *** *** *** *** *** (0.025) (0.022) (0.021) (0.021) (0.021) (0.023) After *** (0.017) *** (0.021) *** (0.014) *** (0.020) *** (0.014) *** (0.020) *** (0.128) *** (0.020) *** (0.202) Time trend *** Firm fixed effects y y y y Prod. fixed effects y y y Time fixed effects y y (0.014) R Observations 472, , , , ,258 Note: Robust standard errors are in parentheses. These coefficients were obtained using Stata 13 SE; * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p <

23 Robustness: Including time-varying Fixed Effects The dependent variable is the log of exports per firm by destination (1) (2) (3) (4) Interaction (Treat x After) *** (0.030) *** (0.029) *** (0.018) *** (0.030) Firm-year FE Y Y Y Product-year FE Y Y Prod.-market Y Y R N 472, , , ,258 Robust standard errors are in parentheses. These coefficients were obtained using stata 13SE * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p <

24 Empirical Setting Composition of Exports to Control (EU) & Treatment (US) Groups US EU 90-99_Misc.s 86-89_Transport 84-85_Mach.Elect 72-83_Metals 68-71_StoneGlas 64-67_Footwear 50-63_TextCloth 44-49_Wood 41-43_HidesSkin 39-40_PlastiRub 28-38_Chemicals 27-27_Fuels 25-26_Minerals 16-24_FoodProd 06-15_Vegetable 01-05_Animal Source: Pakistan Customs Share of various products groups in the exports baskets (%),

25 A: Effect of IC3 on Single and Multiple Market Firms Multi-Market Firms (EU &US) Single Market Firms (EU/US) (1) (2) Treat x After *** (0.021) *** (0.031) R Observations 235, , 416 B: Effect of IC3 on the Continuing Cohort of Firms All Firms Multi-Market Firms (EU &US) Single Market Firms (EU/US) (1) (2) (3) Treat x After *** (0.026) *** (0.031) *** (0.041) R Observations 280, , ,

26 Collapsing Data to Single Pre- and Post-IC3 Period (1) (2) Treat x after 1 st Treatment_ *** (0.021) 2 nd Treatment_ (0.018) FE (firms, products) y y R Observations 295, ,668 26

27 Beyond-the-Border effect on US-bound Exports Maritime Distances A: Maritime Distances in Kilometres Destination Direct Via Sri Lanka Via Hong Kong Via Salalah (Oman) New York 14,812 18, % 28,591 NA 14, % Los Angles 19,564 19, % 19, % 21, % B: Vessel Sailing Time in Number of Days Destination Direct Via Sri Lanka Via Hong Kong Via Salalah (Oman) New York % 45 NA % Los Angles % % % Source: Note: Firms do not appear to ship to New York via Hong Kong 27

28 Billion US$ Loss of Market Access Actual Projected

29 Pakistan's major Export Markets, 2013 Trading Partners Trade (US$ M) Share % United States 3, China 2, Afghanistan 1, United Arab Emirates 1, European Union 5,

30 Drop in Freight Rates (US$/MT) European Union United Kingdom United States Year Freight % Change Freight % Change Freight % Change (1) (2) (1) (2) (1) (2) Source: Computed using Pakistan Custom s Dataset Note: The freight values are in US dollars per metric ton and percentage changes are year-on-year basis 30

31 Global Financial Crisis and US Imports from Pakistan and the World Exports in 2002==1 31

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