Senior poverty in Canada, : A decomposition analysis of income and poverty rates

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1 Senior poverty in Canada, : A decomposition analysis of income and poverty rates Tammy Schirle Department of Economics Wilfrid Laurier University October 2010 Preliminary and Incomplete - Please do not cite Comments and suggestions welcome

2 Motivation and overview 1 Introduction Motivation and overview 2 Background Poverty and Policy 3 Data and Trends Sources, variables, sample, trends for senior families 4 Methods 5 Results 6 Conclusion Concluding remarks and future work

3 Motivation and overview Motivation Senior poverty and incomes in Canada Decline in elderly poverty well-documented Canadian success story Generally attributed to retirement income policy What else has changed that might explain poverty trends?

4 Motivation and overview Overview In this study Document trends in elderly poverty and income Document changes in behaviour, income sources, other characteristics Decomposition of changes in poverty and income Composition and Structure effects

5 Motivation and overview Overview In this study Document trends in elderly poverty and income Document changes in behaviour, income sources, other characteristics Decomposition of changes in poverty and income Composition and Structure effects Preliminary and incomplete Today: SCF, 1975, 1987, 1997 Overall composition and structure effects - poverty rates and deciles Detailed decomposition - deciles

6 Motivation and overview Overview In this study Document trends in elderly poverty and income Document changes in behaviour, income sources, other characteristics Decomposition of changes in poverty and income Composition and Structure effects Preliminary and incomplete Today: SCF, 1975, 1987, 1997 Overall composition and structure effects - poverty rates and deciles Detailed decomposition - deciles In Progress Detailed decomposition of poverty rates SLID

7 Motivation and overview Results Overall changes in poverty rates largely driven by structure effects Detailed decompositions Policy matters! Increases in income attributed in part to increase in education levels, marriage rates Decline in elderly employment downward pressure on income Public and Private Pensions - receipt and return

8 Poverty and Policy Incidence of low income - elderly economic families (Fig.1) Percentage of persons below LICO a>er tax Percentage of persons in below LIM a>er tax

9 Poverty and Policy Public Pensions - maximum annual rates (Fig.2) Maximum OAS + GIS annual rate, single, 2002 prices Maximum CPP/QPP refrement pension rates, 2002 prices

10 Sources, variables, sample, trends for senior families Survey of Consumer Finances income years PUMF (RDC access just granted) Census family files Future work - Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics RDC

11 Sources, variables, sample, trends for senior families Survey of Consumer Finances 1975, 1987, 1997 Census families Head and spouse over age 60 Exclude negative after tax income Variable construction Education, age recoding Indicators for income sources Thresholds - LIM, ERPM Equivalent after tax incomes, 2002 prices

12 Sources, variables, sample, trends for senior families Percent of senior census families below LIM (Fig. 3) 60% % % 30% 20% 10% 0%

13 Sources, variables, sample, trends for senior families Percent of senior census families below ERPM (Fig. 4) 60% % % 30% 20% 10% 0%

14 Sources, variables, sample, trends for senior families Census family equivalent after tax income (Table 1) LIM ERPM Census Family Incomes Below LIM Below ERPM Mean Equivalent Income Median Positive Income Sources Wages OAS/GIS C/QPP Pension Of After Tax Income Wages OAS/GIS C/QPP Pension

15 Sources, variables, sample, trends for senior families Census family member characteristics (Table 2) Year N (census families) Head Male CF Member Age Education Grade 8 or less Grade Grade Some PS Post-Secondary University Married Cdn. Born

16 Sources, variables, sample, trends for senior families Census family member characteristics (Table 2) Year Spouse Female CF Member Age Education Grade 8 or less Grade Grade Some PS Post-Secondary University Married Couples Age difference Same Education

17 Sources, variables, sample, trends for senior families Changes in characteristics Increase in education Aging population Increase Canadian born and married Increase public and private pension receipt Decrease employment

18 Oaxaca-Blinder type decomposition Overall - Dinardo, Fortin and Lemieux 1996 Detailed - Firpo, Fortin and Lemieux 2009 for deciles See Firpo, Fortin and Lemieux (Forthcoming, Handbook of Labor Economics)

19 Overall decomposition - require counterfactual distribution statistic υ C represents income distribution that would have prevailed under the income structure of t = 0, but with characteristics observed in t = 1 Weighting functions ˆω 0 (T ) = 1 T 1 ˆp ˆω 1 (T ) = Ṱ p ˆω C (T ) = 1 T ˆp ˆp(X ) 1 ˆp(X ) (1) (2) (3)

20 Unconditional probability that T = 1 ˆp = N i=1 w sit i N i=1 w si (4) Conditional probability ˆp(X ) logit model Education, age, interactions, marital status, Canadian, income sources After multiplying the weighting functions by sample weights in SCF, normalize to sum to one.

21 Overall change in the distributional statistic ˆ υ O = ˆυ 1 ˆυ 0 (5) = (ˆυ 1 ˆυ C ) + (ˆυ C ˆυ 0 ) = ˆ υ S + ˆ υ X (6) Overall structure + composition effects

22 Detailed decompositions - FFL Recentered Influence Function (RIF) Regression E[RIF (Y ; υ) X ] = X γ + ɛ (7) Resulting coefficients have an unconditional interpretation - the effect increase in the mean value of X on the quantile τ.

23 The overall change in the unconditional quantile (τ) ˆ τ O = X 1(ˆγ 1,τ ˆγ 0,τ ) + (X 1 X 0 )ˆγ 0,τ (8) = ˆ τ S + ˆ τ X (9) Detailed decomposition of composition effects ˆ τ X = K (X 1k X 0k )ˆγ 0k,τ (10) k=1

24 In this paper - 2 models: Model 1 - characteristics Model 2 - income sources Future versions of this study Hybrid - Reweighting and RIF-regressions

25 Overall Decomposition of Poverty and Deciles (Table 3) Observed Total Change Due to: (%) Structure Composition Below LIM % Below ERPM % Percentile 10th % th % th % th % th % th % th % th % th %

26 Overall Decomposition of Poverty and Deciles (Table 4) Observed Total Change Due to: (%) Structure Composition Below LIM % Below ERPM % Percentile 10th % th % th % th % th % th % th % th % th %

27 RIF-regression results - 30th percentile (Table 5, 6 & 7) Model Grade 8 or less *** *** *** Grade * -395 Some PS *** 525 PS * 513 University * 1230 *** Canadian born -571 ** Married 3796 *** 4405 *** 4464 *** Constant *** *** ***... continued

28 RIF-regression results - 50th percentile (Table 5, 6 & 7) Model Grade 8 or less *** *** *** Grade ** *** -866 Some PS *** 355 PS 1694 * * University 2512 *** 2669 *** 3650 *** Canadian born *** 27 Married 7689 *** 5081 *** 6642 *** Constant *** *** ***... continued

29 RIF-regression results - 30th percentile (Table 5, 6 & 7) Model Age * 1790 ** *** 1179 * * 2131 *** ** *** * 2174 *** *** ** 2375 *** * 2623 *** *** *** ***

30 RIF-regression results - 50th percentile (Table 5, 6 & 7) Model Age *** *** * ** * ** ** *** *** ** *** *** *** * *** *** 562

31 Decomposition of Composition Effects, Model 1, Education Age Cdn. Born Married Total th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th

32 Decomposition of Composition Effects, Model 1, Educa4on Age 2000 Cdn. Born 1500 Married Total th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th

33 Decomposition of Structure Effects, Model 1, Education Age Cdn. Born Married Total th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th

34 Decomposition of Structure Effects, Model 1, Educa4on 2000 Age Cdn. Born 3000 Married Total th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th

35 RIF-regression results - 30th percentile (Table 5, 6 & 7) Model Employment 4607 *** 5028 *** 4957 *** OAS/GIS 659 ** 773 ** 1516 *** C/QPP 1670 *** 3294 *** 1931 *** Pension 3317 *** 4611 *** 5808 *** Constant 6473 *** 8971 *** 9296 ***

36 RIF-regression results - 50th percentile (Table 5, 6 & 7) Model Employment *** 7939 *** 9588 *** OAS/GIS C/QPP 2554 *** 2324 *** 995 ** Pension 7396 *** 7225 *** 9855 *** Constant 7518 *** *** ***

37 Decomposition of Composition Effects, Model 2, Employment OAS/GIS C/QPP Pension Total th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th

38 Decomposition of Composition Effects, Model 2, Employment OAS/GIS C/QPP Pension Total th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th

39 Decomposition of Structure Effects, Model 2, Employment OAS/GIS C/QPP Pension Total th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th

40 Decomposition of Structure Effects, Model 2, Employment OAS/GIS 3000 C/QPP Pension 2000 Total th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th

41 Concluding remarks and future work Conclusions Evidence confirms importance of policy Also education, employer-provided pensions Concerns - employment rates, aging population Future work Census family vs. economic family Master files SLID to 2006 Poverty rate detailed decomposition and future projections

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