Tourism and HSR in Spain. Does the AVE increase local visitors?

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1 2 nd Meeting on Transport Economics and Infrastructure Barcelona January 21 st 2016 Tourism and HSR in Spain. Does the AVE increase local visitors? Javier Campos (ULPGC) Daniel Albalate (UB) Juan Luis Jiménez (ULPGC)

2 Motivation The context Our analysis Our results 2

3 Motivation Another chicken-and-egg story? Transport (accessibility) as a major determinant of tourism attractiveness Tourism (and economic activity) as a major determinant for transport investments Spain as a suitable case study: High tourism relevance. Many (different) destinations (UNWTO, 2015) AVE generally regarded as a social success, but high investment costs and low demand Measuring the attraction effect (Bonnafous, 1987) How much does HSR increase a destination visibility within the transport network? What is the most adequate methodological approach? 3

4 The context 1/2 Ex-ante, a positive relationship is always expected Main justification to promote many projects (Delaplace & Perrin, 2013) ( ) Positive externalities are described (Murakami & Cervero, 2012; Edwards, 2012) ( ) The boost for local economy can be measured (Hernández & Jiménez, 2014) but ex-post results are often more disappointing. Only novelty effects in France that benefits already-known cities (Bazin et al. 2006) More business travelers; reduce overnight stays (Klein & Claisse, 1997) Even if traffic is increased: reduction in demand for local services (Bazin et al. 2013) Limited results also in Spain: Clavé et al. (2015), Ortuño-Padilla et al. (2015), Albalate (2015), Albalate and Fageda (2016), 4

5 The context 2/2 Why is this so? HSR generates centralization of economic activities around big nodes (Givoni, 2006) Size is relevant: most positive impacts concentrate on larger cities (SEEDA, 2008) Cities with pre-existent amenities also benefitted more from HSR (Chen and Haynes, 2012) Revealed preferences studies suggest that HSR is not always a key factor on destination choice for international tourism (Pagliara et al. 2015, Chen and Haynes, 2015) In fact, HSR-air competition is fierce on several routes (Dobruszkes et al., 2014) Complementarity effects with air transport are promising, but still very limited (Givoni and Banister, 2006; Albalate et al. 2015) 5

6 Our analysis 1/3 What is our contribution Many previous studies use city-route methodologies (case studies) or analyze the impacts of HSR on city tourism as integrated within a national transport system. We focus on local impacts using a newly created database. Previous results agree that expected positive impacts of HSR inaugurations only come true in limited cases, depending on many factors (namely, city size). We provide an empirical estimation of these impacts (if any) for individual cities in Spain. Measuring the attraction effect is a key issue in transport economics We compare two methodological approaches: a counter-factual view (difference-indifference) or a more standard (panel data) view. 6

7 Our analysis 2/3 Database Monthly data on tourism and economic activity of Spanish municipalities where new AVE stations were built or enhanced in (at different dates) Local data: include 12 province capital cities and other 112 other tourism relevant cities (with & without AVE) We explain overnight visitors, stays and occupancy rates using hotel prices, population, distance to AVE, airport and other control variables. Disaggregated expenditure surveys not available. Our database also includes 100+ cities without AVE Source: ADIF 7

8 Our analysis 3/3 Total number of visitors National visitors (%) Foreign visitors (%) Total Overnight stays Average stay (nights) Occupancy rate (%) In municipalities with a new AVE project in the period Before the HSR project 48, , After the HSR project 47, , In municipalities without a AVE project in the period For all the period 32, , In municipalities with a AVE project before the period For all the period 185, ,

9 Our results 1/7 The DiD approach: Treated municipalities: with AVE services in After effects: to capture the specific effects after the inauguration date DiD estimator: takes value 1 for treated municipalities in the after period. Dep. variable Effect of AVE on Toledo Tarragona Valladolid Segovia Málaga Barcelona Valencia Visitors (0.05) (0.04) *** 0.07 (0.04) 0.10 (0.04) ** 0.44 (0.12) *** 0.24 (0.15) * 0.07 (0.07) Overnight stays (0.08) (0.05) *** 0.05 (0.06) 0.12 (0.05) ** 0.28 (0.14) ** 0.42 (0.35) 0.02 (0.09) Average stay (0.03) 0.03 (0.02) (0.02) 0.02 (0.02) (0.07) ** (0.18) * (0.04) National visitors (0.04) (0.04) *** 0.12 (0.04) *** 0.15 (0.04) *** 0.49 (0.14) *** 0.98 (0.19) *** 0.15 (0.05) *** Foreign visitors (0.09) ** 0.02 (0.07) (0.07) 0.02 (0.07) 0.54 (0.18) ** 0.71 (0.39) * 0.03 (0.11) Occupancy rate (0.02) ** (0.01) *** (0.02) ** (0.02) *** 0.11 (0.06) * 0.25 (0.09) ** 0.07 (0.03) *** Cuenca (0.04) ** (0.05) *** (0.02) *** (0.03) *** 0.12 (0.06) * (0.02) *** DiD coefficients: the AVE effects on selected cities Albacete Santiago (0.04) 0.12 (0.29) (0.05) *** (0.41) (0.02) *** (0.17) * (0.03) 0.53 (0.23) ** (0.06) (0.51) (0.02) *** 0.04 (0.09) Coruña (0.04) *** (0.05) *** 0.07 (0.02) *** (0.03) *** (0.06) ** (0.02) ***

10 Our results 2/7 Alternative: a panel data model ln(tourism) imt 0 1 imt 2 imt 3 imt 4 imt 5 imt 6 it 7 it 8 jt Airport HSR10km HSR20km HSR50km Population Population2 Hotelprices AVE project Year effect Monthly effect h 9 h t h 19 h t it This approach provides a more aggregate view 10,200+ observations 6 tourism related endogenous variables 3 different estimation models (full sample with/without population, and restricted sample) 10

11 Our results 3/7 Panel data main results: No clear effects of HSR on tourism on the total number of visitors (this confirms that size matters). There are positive and negative estimates, but not statistically significant. We find a negative effect of AVE on the occupancy rates (-8%) and positive (same amount) associated to airport investments. Similarly, AVE effect on overnight stays are not significant: airport enlargements seems to play a more relevant role of tourism (a 15% effect according to Model 3). AVE has no significant impact on the average stay at destination, whereas the airport does have it (generates a 6% increase). Only with respect to foreign visitors we find a relevant effect (+9%) of the AVE (although the impact of the airport is still higher, with 15%). 11

12 Our results 4/7 NUMBER OF VISITORS Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 AVE project (0.04) 0.03 (0.05) 0.04 (0.05) Airport enlargement 0.08 (0.07) 0.07 (0.07) 0.09 (0.07) HSR (in km) (0.02) *** (0.02) *** (0.02) *** HSR (in km) (0.03) 0.02 (0.04) (0.03) Population -7e-6 (2e-6) *** -3e-6 (2e-6) * Population squared 4e-12 (1e-12) *** 8e-13 (3e-13) *** Hotel prices (regional) (0.003) ** (0.003) *** Year effect Yes Yes Yes Monthly effect Yes Yes Yes Constant 9.39 (0.04) *** 9.34 (0.40) *** 9.31 (0.42) *** Observations 10,296 8,096 8,576 R 2 (within groups) OCCUPANCY RATE Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 HSR project (0.04) * (0.04) * (0.04) * Airport enlargement 0.05 (0.05) 0.04 (0.04) 0.07 (0.04) * HSR (in km) 0.04 (0.01) *** 0.05 (0.02) *** 0.05 (0.01) *** HSR (in km) (0.02) (0.01) *** 0.04 (0.01) *** Population -3e-6 (1e-6) -3e-6 (1e-6) * Population squared 2e-12 (1e-12) * 6e-13 (2e-13) ** Hotel prices (regional) (0.001) *** (0.001) *** Year effect Yes Yes Yes Monthly effect Yes Yes Yes Constant 3.47 (0.03) *** 2.91 (0.27) *** 3.03 (0.29) *** Observations 10,293 8,081 8,561 R 2 (within groups)

13 Our results 5/7 OVERNIGHT STAYS Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 HSR project (0.04) 0.01 (0.05) 0.02 (0.05) Airport enlargement 0.12 (0.08) 0.12 (0.07) * 0.15 (0.07) ** HSR (in km) (0.02) *** (0.02) ** (0.02) *** HSR (in km) (0.04) 0.02 (0.04) 0.01 (0.04) Population -7e-6 (2e-6) *** -4e-6 (2e-6) ** Population squared 4e-12 (1e-12) *** 9e-13 (3e-13) *** Hotel prices (regional) (0.003) *** (0.003) *** Year effect Yes Yes Yes Monthly effect Yes Yes Yes Constant (0.05) *** (0.42) *** (0.45) *** Observations 10,296 8,096 8,576 R 2 (Within groups) AVERAGE STAY Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 HSR project (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Airport enlargement 0.04 (0.03) 0.06 (0.03) * 0.06 (0.03) ** HSR (in km) 0.08 (0.008) *** 0.06 (0.01) *** 0.06 (0.01) *** HSR (in km) (0.04) -9e-4 (0.04) (0.04) Population -7e-7 (1e-6) -1e-6 (1e-6) Population squared -1e-13 (6e-13) 1e-13 (2e-13) Hotel prices (regional) 9e-4 (1e-3) (0.001) Year effect Yes Yes Yes Monthly effect Yes Yes Yes Constant 1.00 (0.01) *** 1.02 (0.28) *** 1.06 (0.31) *** Observations 10,298 8,098 8,578 R 2 (within groups)

14 Our results 6/7 NATIONAL VISITORS Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 HSR project 0.01 (0.04) 0.02 (0.05) 0.03 (0.05) Airport enlargement (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) HSR (in km) (0.02) *** (0.02) *** (0.02) *** HSR (in km) 0.09 (0.04)** 0.07 (0.05) 0.06 (0.04) Population -7e-6 (2e-6) ** -4e-6 (2e-6) * Population squared 4e-12 (1e-12) *** 8e-13 (3e-13) ** Hotel prices (regional) 2e-4 (3e-3) 3e-4 (3e-3) Year effect Yes Yes Yes Monthly effect Yes Yes Yes Constant 8.88 (0.05) *** 9.58 (0.43) *** 9.58 (0.45) *** Observations 10,298 8,098 8,578 R 2 (within groups) FOREIGN VISITORS Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 HSR project 0.02 (0.04) 0.07 (0.04) 0.09 (0.04) ** Airport enlargement 0.12 (0.08) 0.12 (0.08) 0.15 (0.08) * HSR (in km) (0.03) *** (0.04) ** (0.04) *** HSR (in km) (0.06)*** (0.08) (0.06) Population -1e-5 (5 e-6) ** -6e-6 (4e-6) Population squared 6e-12 (3e-12) ** 1e-12 (6e-13) ** Hotel prices (regional) (0.005) (0.004) Year effect Yes Yes Yes Monthly effect Yes Yes Yes Constant 7.72 (0.05) *** 8.42 (0.75) *** 8.32 (0.81) *** Observations 10,296 8,096 8,576 R 2 (Within groups)

15 Our results 7/7 1. We confirm that the effects of AVE on the number of visitors, the number of nights spent at destination and/or the hotel occupancy rates are minimal or even negative. 2. When positive effects exist, they are restricted to larger cities: AVE contribution to local growth is limited. 3. Our panel data estimates suggest that in many cases the existing transport network (airports) proved to be a sufficient alternative (!). 4. We advocate a highly suspicious view on those projects whose main justification is (supposedly) large induced demand effects at the regional and local level. 15

16 Thank you

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