2017 GLOBAL ECONOMIC VITIVINICULTURE DATA
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1 2017 GLOBAL ECONOMIC VITIVINICULTURE DATA 2017 Wrld wine prductin estimated at mhl, a fall f 8.2% cmpared with 2016 Very lw prductin in Eurpe: prductin levels were at a histric lw in Italy (39.3 mhl), France (36.7 mhl) and Spain (33.5 mhl). Germany (8.1 mhl) als recrded lw prductin. Prtugal (6.6 mhl), Rmania (5.3 mhl), Hungary (2.9 mhl) and Austria (2.4 mhl) were the nly cuntries t see a rise cmpared with An even higher level f prductin was recrded in the United States (23.3 mhl). Suth Africa (10.8 mhl) maintained its level f prductin. In Suth America, prductin increased cmpared with the lw levels f 2016 (a cnsequence f El Niñ), particularly in Argentina (11.8 mhl) and Brazil (3.4 mhl). In Chile (9.5 mhl), vinified prductin remained lw. Australian prductin (13.9 mhl) grew and New Zealand prductin (2.9 mhl) maintained a gd level. Abbreviatins: mhl: millins f hectlitres
2 Wine prductin Wrldwide T evaluate wrld wine prductin at this time in the year, a variability hypthesis f 10% f the 2016 harvest level fr cuntries fr which infrmatin was nt yet available fr 2017 is cnsidered here (at this stage, estimates are available fr 88% f wrld wine prductin). These hyptheses lead t the estimatin f 2017 wrld wine prductin, excluding juice and musts, at between and mhl (246.6 mhl at the mid-range estimate) Vinified prductin sharply drpped by 22.1 mhl cmpared with the previus year. This level f wrld wine prductin is histrically lw, with such levels nt having been seen since the 1950s and start f the 1960s (1956: mhl, 1957: mhl, 1961: mhl, 1963: mhl). Mre recently, nly the 1991 and 1994 prductins shw cmparable levels (251.6 and mhl respectively). Figure 1 Wrld wine prductin trends mhl Wrld wine prductin (excluding juice & musts) Surces: OIV In the EU In the Eurpean Unin (EU), exceptinal weather events frm frst t drught significantly impacted 2017 wine prductin, which was histrically lw. The harvest vlume will be 15% less than the previus year's levels. It is evaluated at the mid-range estimate, at mhl (excluding juice and musts), which is a significant decline f 24.0 mhl cmpared with 2016 prductin (164.7 mhl). The harvest estimates fr 2017 are histrically lw in the main Eurpean prducing cuntries. There was a reductin f 23% in Italy 2
3 (39.3 mhl), 19% in France (36.7 mhl) and 15% in Spain (33.5 mhl) cmpared with This reductin was recrded in mst EU cuntries. Germany and Greece, with 8.1 mhl (-10%/2016) and 2.5 mhl (-5%/2016) respectively, fall in line with this dwnward trend. Bulgaria saw a prductin level in keeping with its ptential with 1.1 mhl (-2%/2016), after the very lw 2014 prductin. Prtugal (6.6 mhl), Rmania (5.3 mhl), Hungary (2.9 mhl) and Austria (2.4 mhl) were the nly cuntries t recrd a rise cmpared with After tw pr harvests, Rmania returned t a high level f prductin. Outside the EU In the main prducing cuntries utside the EU, the level f vinified prductin remained fairly stable in The United States, with 23.3 mhl vinified (-1%/2016), recrded a high level f prductin fr the secnd year running, yet withut reaching that f the recrd prductin in Hwever, ne dubt remains: the estimated wine prductin is based n USDA frecasts fr grape prductin, relating especially t wine grapes, frm August 2017 and des nt therefre take int accunt the ptential cnsequences f the recent fires in Califrnia (Octber 2017). Suth America was especially affected in 2016 by the negative influence f El Niñ, particularly due t highly significant perids f rainfall. In 2017, wine prductin is likely t shw quite an increase cmpared with the previus year, despite the fairly lw temperatures at the end f In Argentina, wine prductin is likely t reach 11.8 mhl in 2017 (+25%/2016). In Brazil, 2016 prductin was very lw (1.3 mhl: -53%/2015). Prductin in 2017, by cntrast, is likely t be high with 3.4 mhl: +169%/2016. Finally, Chile shuld recrd anther decline in prductin in 2017: 9.4 mhl: -6.4%/2016 (as a reminder, 10.1 mhl in 2016: -21%/2015). Suth Africa, with a prductin f 10.8 mhl, bserved a slight 2% increase in 2017 prductin levels cmpared with In Oceania, 2017 Australian prductin reached a sustained level f 13.9 mhl, +6% cmpared with Prductin was n the up fr the third year in a rw. In New Zealand, prductin slightly declined in 2017 (-9%), yet this was in reference t a recrd prductin the year befre. It nevertheless remained high (2.9 mhl). 3
4 Table 1 shws the quantitative develpment fr cuntries fr which infrmatin was available and with wine prductins f mre than 1 mhl. Table 1: Wine prductin (excluding juice and musts) (1) /2016 Variatin in 2017/2016 Variatin Ranking Unit: mhl Prvisinal Frecast vlume in % Italy % 1 France % 2 Spain % 3 United States (2) % 4 Australia % 5 Argentina % 6 China* % 7 Suth Africa % 8 Chile % 9 Germany % 10 Prtugal % 11 Russia* % 12 Rmania % 13 Brazil % 14 Hungary % 15 New Zealand % 16 Greece % 17 Serbia* % 18 Austria % 19 Mldva % 20 Bulgaria % 21 Gergia* % 22 OIV Wrld Ttal(3) % (1): Cuntries fr which infrmatin has been prvided with a wine prductin f mre than 1 mhl (2): OIV estimate based n UDSA inf (3): OIV estimate: mid-range estimate. Range fr evaluatin f 2017 wrld prductin: frm mhl t mhl * Reprt fr the year figures nt yet available 2. Assessment f wrld cnsumptin levels Wrld cnsumptin levels At this time f year, there is nt yet any cnslidated infrmatin n the cnsumptin levels f the different markets. Here, therefre, we resrt t a prjected level f wrld cnsumptin frm the year 2000 with tw scenaris (Figure 2). One f the tw scenaris cnsidered is based n the lng-term resumptin f the psitive develpment f wrld cnsumptin since 2000, while the secnd is based n the negative develpment f this market since the 2008 ecnmic crisis. These changes have resulted in 2017 glbal wine cnsumptin levels ranging between and mhl, giving a mid-range estimate f mhl. 4
5 Figure 2 - Wrld wine cnsumptin mhl Estimated 2017 wrld wine cnsumptin Frecast Surce: OIV 5
2017 World wine production estimated at mhl, a fall of 8.2% compared with 2016
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