A latent class approach for estimating energy demands and efficiency in transport:

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1 Energy Policy Research Group Seminars A latent class approach for estimating energy demands and efficiency in transport: An application to Latin America and the Caribbean Manuel Llorca Oviedo Efficiency Group and Durham Energy Institute, Durham University Business School Cambridge, 10 November 2015

2 Energy Efficiency What is energy efficiency? Useful output of a process Energy efficiency = Energy input in a process Most commonly used indicator Energy intensity = Energy consumption GDP Filippini and Hunt (2011, 2012) apply a parametric frontier approach to estimate energy demand frontier functions Underlying energy efficiency

3 Energy demand frontier functions Approaches in the estimation of energy demand functions P OLS SFA Det. Q

4 SFA demand model Decomposition of the Overall Random Error (ORE) term ( β ) ln q= ln f YPX,,, + v+ u 2 ( ) + 2 ( ) v~ N 0, σ v u ~ N 0, σ u Aigner et al. (1977) ALS P 6. ORE v u 1. u = -v ORE u or v u v 5. ORE 2. v ORE u v ORE SFA EF it = exp(-u it ) Q

5 Energy demand in the transport sector Modelling energy demand in transport: Econometric techniques Artificial intelligence Multi-criteria analysis Simulation methods No papers exist in which the frontier approach is applied to estimate energy demand functions in the transport sector. Abstract of the first paper: Use of an SFA approach to measure energy efficiency in the transport sector of Latin America and the Caribbean. Controlling for unobserved differences (LCM). Examining the importance of using appropriate price variables.

6 Models proposed Specifications: ALS model: ln q= ln f( PY,, X, β ) + v+ u 2 ( ) + 2 ( ) v~ N 0, σ v u ~ N 0, σ u Latent Class Stochastic Frontier Model (LCSFM) (Orea and Kumbhakar, 2004; and Greene, 2004): ( β ) ln q = ln f P, Y, X, + v + u it it it it j it j it j

7 Application to the case of Latin America and the Caribbean Importance of achieving an efficient energy use of energy in recent decades. Share of energy consumption (%) Year Transport Manufacturing Residential Services Source: OLADE (Latin American Energy Organization)

8 Application to the case of Latin America and the Caribbean Increase in energy consumption and price of energy in the transport sector. toe per capita Price Year Year South America Central America & Caribbean Mexico South America Central America & Caribbean Mexico Source: OLADE and own elaboration

9 Database: Data and sample Variables Unbalanced panel of 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean ( ) 503 observations. Sources: OLADE, ECLAC and PWT 7.1. Variables: q = Final energy consumption in the transportation sector, thousands of toe. Y = Real income in millions of 2005 US dollars, PPP. POP = Population in thousands of inhabitants. P = Price of energy in transport (Constructed by the authors). ST = Share of the transport sector in the economy. DEN = Population density (POP / Area). 2 (,,,,,,, ) q = q Y POP P ST DEN t t EF it it it it it it it

10 Data and sample Price index construction Price components: Natural gas, LPG, electricity, gasoline (which includes biofuel), kerosene (jet fuel), diesel oil, fuel oil. Methods commonly used: Paasche and Laspeyres. In this paper: transitive multilateral Törnqvist index proposed by Caves et al. (1982).

11 Results Basic model (Laspeyres vs. CCD) Single demand. Comparison of price indices ALS model using Laspeyres Variable Coeff. t-ratio Intercept *** ln Y it *** ln POP it *** ln P it *** ST it *** ln DEN it *** t *** ½ t *** σ *** λ *** σ v σ u Log-likelihood Significance code: * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01 ALS model using multilateral index Variable Coeff. t-ratio Intercept *** ln Y it *** ln POP it *** ln P it *** ST it *** ln DEN it *** t *** ½ t σ *** λ *** σ v σ u Log-likelihood Significance code: * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

12 Results Model selection tests Single demand ALS model Variable Coeff. t-ratio Intercept *** ln Y it *** ln POP it *** ln P it *** ST it *** ln DEN it *** t *** ½ t σ *** λ *** σ v σ u Log-likelihood Significance code: * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01 Test value Statistical information criteria for model selection AIC AICc AIC3 ACIu BIC CAIC ALS LCSFM (2C) LCSFM (2C)* LCSFM (3C) LCSFM (3C)* TFE TRE Separating variables: Y/POP and DEN

13 Results LCSFM with 3 classes (including sep. var.) Characteristics of each class Class 1 Income elast (210 obs.) Price elast Av. Eff Class 2 Income elast (125 obs.) Price elast Av. Eff Class 3 Income elast (168 obs.) Price elast Av. Eff Argentina Brazil Chile Ecuador Guyana Mexico Paraguay Suriname Trinidad and Tobago Venezuela Barbados Bolivia Colombia Costa Rica Jamaica Panama El Salvador Granada Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Peru Dominican Republic Uruguay ln (P) Linear demands obtained on the basis of observed values ln (Q/Y) Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Single demand

14 Robustness of results (examples) Countries that have adopted distinctive measures for the improvement of public transport in their cities (ECLAC, 2010): Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system implementation in Curitiba (Brazil). This system was started in 1972 as part of a general policy of urban planning. BRT TransMilenio, which has been developed since 2000 in Bogotá (Colombia). The innovations of this system have made it the most solid BRT of the world and have led it to develop an extension plan of this system to seven additional cities. In Mexico City (Mexico), an BRT system has been implemented, named Metrobús, as a complement to the extensive subway system of the city. In Guatemala City (Guatemala), a trans-urban system was developed in 2009 with the aim of improving efficiency and reducing contamination indices of the transport sector in the city.

15 Results Country ranking using energy intensity and energy efficiency Country Indicator Frontier demand Correlation (Energy/GDP) (EI Vs Eff.) EI Ranking Eff. Ranking Argentina Barbados Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Ecuador El Salvador Granada Guatemala Guyana Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Dominican Rep Suriname Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela Spearman s rank correlation coefficient between both rankings 0.701

16 Conclusions The specification that best fits our data is an energy demand model with three classes. There is scope for energy savings (especially in class 3). The estimation of the latent class model allows us to identify countries that have successfully implemented programs of improved public transport in some of their cities. Energy intensity might be an unreasonable indicator of energy efficiency in the transport sector for some countries.

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