Problem Set #15 Key. Measuring the Effects of Promotion II

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1 Problem Set #15 Key Sonoma State University Business 580-Business Intelligence Dr. Cuellar Measuring the Effects of Promotion II 1. For Total Wine Sales Using a Non-Promoted Price of $9 and a Promoted Price of $8 per Bottle a. Decompose the effect of price from promotion by month using the method of Cuellar et al. Construct a table showing the total lift in unit sales, the lift in unit sales due to price and the lift in unit sales due to promotion by month. $8.00 $8.00 $9.00 Promoted NonPromo NonPromo Price Lift % Promo Lift % Total % January % February % March % April % May % June % July % August % September % October % November % December % b. Show graphically the unit lift in sales due to promotion.

2 c. Show graphically the percentage lift in sales due to promotion. d. When is promotion most effective and least effective? Promotion is most effective in July and least effective in January. 2. For Cabernet Sauvignon Sales Using a Non-Promoted Price of $9 and a Promoted Price of $8 per Bottle a. Decompose the effect of price from promotion by month using the method of Cuellar et al. Construct a table showing the total lift in unit sales, the lift in unit sales due to price and the lift in unit sales due to promotion by month. $8.00 $8.00 $9.00 Promoted NonPromoNonPromoPrice Lift % Promo Lift% Total % January % February % March % April % May % June % July % August % Septembe % October % November % December %

3 b. Show graphically the unit lift in sales due to promotion. c. Show graphically the percentage lift in sales due to promotion. d. When is promotion most effective and least effective? Promotion is most effective in December and least effective in May.

4 3. For Chardonnay Sales Using a Non-Promoted Price of $9 and a Promoted Price of $8 per Bottle a. Decompose the effect of price from promotion by month using the method of Cuellar et al. Construct a table showing the total lift in unit sales, the lift in unit sales due to price and the lift in unit sales due to promotion by month. $8.00 $8.00 $9.00 Promoted NonPromoNonPromoPrice Lift % Promo Lift% Total % January % February % March % April % May % June % July % August % Septembe % October % November % December % b. Show graphically the unit lift in sales due to promotion.

5 c. Show graphically the percentage lift in sales due to promotion. d. When is promotion most effective and least effective? Promotion is most effective in December and least effective in January. e. Do the effects of promotion differ by varietal? Explain fully. The effects of promotion by varietal (shown graphically below) differ in effectiveness. The promotional lift for Chardonnay is nearly double that of cabernet in the most effective months of December, July, and March, but it is nearly half that of cabernet in April and June. We see some lift in Chardonnay sales as a result of promotional efforts in February and May, but cabernet sales show negative effects from promotion in these months. Overall, promotion can be planned and strategically implemented.

6 Consumer Heterogeneity-There is a debate over whether consumers who buy on promotion are more price sensitive than those who choose not to buy on promotion. 4. For Cabernet Sauvignon a. Show graphically the relationship between price and quantity of promoted and non-promoted sales. Describe your graph. b. Estimate the price elasticity of demand for promoted and non-promoted sales. Which is greater? Is the difference statistically significant? Do they differ in the expected way? Explain fully. Elasticity of Demand for Promoted and Non-Promoted Cabernet Log Cases Log Price (5.60)** Significant

7 dpromo (0.04) dpromo*log Price (0.15) Not Significant Constant (8.57)** Observations 312 R-squared 0.49 Absolute value of t-statistics in parentheses * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1% ε Promoted > ε Non Promoted 6.18 > For Chardonnay a. Show graphically the relationship between price and quantity of promoted and non-promoted sales. Describe your graph. b. Estimate the price elasticity of demand for promoted and non-promoted sales. Which is greater? Is the difference statistically significant? Do they differ in the expected way? Explain fully. Elasticity of Demand for Promoted and Non-Promoted Chardonnay Log Cases Log Price (3.25)** Significant dpromo (1.67) dpromo*log Price (1.65) Not Significant

8 Constant (6.92)** Observations 312 R-squared 0.70 Absolute value of t-statistics in parentheses * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1% ε Promoted > ε Non Promoted 4.95 > 2.82

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