Global Wine Report SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WINE GROWERS ASSOCIATION NOVEMBER 29, 2017 DEDICATED BROKERS IN 8 COUNTRIES
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1 Global Wine Report SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WINE GROWERS ASSOCIATION NOVEMBER 29, 2017 DEDICATED BROKERS IN 8 COUNTRIES GLOBALLY BASED TO BUILD YOUR BUSINESS WORLDWIDE 1
2 INTRODUCTION Ciatti Co à 8 Regional Offices Worldwide Wine, Grapes, & Concentrate John Fearless Hops Global Perspective World Approach Local Knowledge Today s Goal: Discuss World Wine Production & Usage OUTLINE World Production Wine Total & Acreage Europe Southern Hemisphere USA California, Other States Market Place USA Sales Domestic / Export Varietal Key 2017 Crop Estimates Closing Conclusions 2
3 GLOBAL ACREAGE TRENDS COUNTRY % CHANGE PLANTING SPAIN 6 SOME REPLANTING FRANCE 2 REMOVED YIELD RESTRICTIONS ITALY CHINA 8 42 SOME VARIETALS GENERIC & TABLE USA 4 REMOVAL OF GENERICS / PLANTINGS OF VARIETALS ARGENTINA 3 MALBEC Source: OIV CHILE 3 CABERNET SAUVIGNON, SAUVIGNON BLANC, MERLOT, PINOT NOIR AUSTRALIA 13 REMOVAL OF GENERICS SOUTH AFRICA GERMANY NEW ZEALAND SAUVIGNON BLANC, PINOT NOIR GLOBAL WINE PRODUCTION VINTAGE WORLD PRODUCTION MHL MHL MHL Italy 19% Total 30.1 Million Tons Spain 16% USA 11% Rest of World France 7% 17% Argentina 6% Germany 4% Australia 7% New Zealand 1% So. Africa 5% Chile 4% Portugal 3% 3
4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE EUROPE ITALY FRANCE SPAIN ITALY History: Crush Tonnages (million US Tons) Est Key Varietals: Pinot Grigio, Prosecco Tight Inventory Effects Everyone Buyer? Vine Acreage: ,000 hectares 769,000 hectares 680,000 hectares (2.10 million acres) (1.90 million acres) (1.68 million acres) 4
5 FRANCE History: Crush Tonnages (million US Tons) Key Varietals: Rosé, Sparkling Declining Demand Locally Export Growth to U.S. & China Vine Acreage: ,000 hectares 800,000 hectares 780,000 hectares (2.23 million acres) (1.98 million acres) (1.93 million acres) 17 Est SPAIN History: Crush Tonnages (million US Tons) Est Key Varietals: Cheap Generics & Concentrate Export to Europe & China Vine Acreage: ,200,000 hectares 1,000,000 hectares 1,000,000 hectares (2.96 m acres) (2.47 m acres) (2.47 m acres) 5
6 12/11/17 EUROPEAN OUTLOOK Exports to The World Italy & France Casegoods Spain Bulk Supply Support & Subsidize Marketing Huge Consumer But Declining Consumption Regulations & Taxes SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CHILE ARGENTINA AUSTRALIA SOUTH AFRICA 6
7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE Varietal Leader Market Driven Productive Newer Vines Exports Required Population Lacking Global Players Personality ARGENTINA History: Crush Tonnages (million US Tons) Key Varietals: Malbec Cheap Generics / Concentrate - White Large Domestic Market Tight Supply Today Government & Inflation Vine Acreage: ,000 hectares 221,000 hectares 225,000 hectares (593,000 acres) (546,000 acres) (556,000 acres) 7
8 CHILE History: Crush Tonnages (million US Tons) Key Varietals: Cabernet Sauvignon, Pinot Noir Sauvignon Blanc, Pisco Free Trade Agreements Vineyard Modernization Quality Vine Acreage: ,000 hectares 205,000 hectares 210,000 hectares (420,000 acres) (494,000 acres) (519,000 acres) AUSTRALIA History: Crush Tonnages (million US Tons) Key Varietals: Chardonnay, Pinot Grigio Net Exporter China Big Market US & UK Balanced Market Today Vine Acreage: ,000 hectares 169,000 hectares 150,000 hectares (445,000 acres) (418,000 acres) (370,000 acres) 8
9 SOUTH AFRICA History: Crush Tonnages (million US Tons) Key Varietals: Chardonnay, Chenin Blanc, Brandy Demand From Europe Currency Fluctuates Vine Acreage: ,000 hectares 131,000 hectares 130,000 hectares (240,000 acres) (323,000 acres) (321,000 acres) ASIA China: Population 1.4 billion Plantings à 1 million acres à 1.2m Mainly Generic & Table All Used Internally World Buyer Growing Wine Consumer Japan/Korea/Hong Kong Potential Growth - TPP Russia Cheap Buyers 9
10 USA USA SALES Overall Flat (+0%) (Last 12 Months) - Domestic (+1%) (+2.9 M/Cases) - Exports (-16%) (-3.6 M/Cases) - Imports (YTD) - Casegoods (+4%) (+2.3M/Cases) - Bulk (+20%) (+3.0M/Cases) - Total US Market (YTD) - Import & Domestic (+3%) (+6.6 M/Cases) Source: Gomberg-Frederickson 10
11 CALIFORNIA Challenging Vintage Premiumization High Prices Today 2017 Tonnage 3.9 Million CHARDONNAY Trend Inventory Tight Aging Acreage Plantings Needed?? 800, , , , , , , , ,000 Bulk Wine California = $ International = $ Acreage ,300 93,100 91,300 11
12 PINOT GRIGIO Trend 2016 Large Harvest California Grown 250, , , , ,000 50,000 0 Bulk Wine California = $ International = $ Acreage ,300 12,400 13,700 SAUVIGNON BLANC Trend New Zealand Style Planting Needed for Growth Bulk Wine California = $ International = $ , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Acreage 90, ,300 14,900 14,300 12
13 OTHER WHITES Generics Colombard Chenin Blanc Florals Table & Raisin Thompson Seedless White Concentrate - $ $10.00 Bulk CABERNET SAUVIGNON Trend Sales Growth Continues Acreage Matures Removals vs Plantings International Options 700, , , , , , , ,000 Bulk Wine California = $ International = $ Acreage ,600 76,700 84,600 13
14 MERLOT Trend Less Demand Stable Inventory Red Blends Help? Bulk Wine California = $ International = $ , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Acreage ,600 45,300 40, ,000 PINOT NOIR Trend Domestic Demand Consumer Driven More Needed?? Bulk Wine California = $ International = $ , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Acreage 235, ,400 38,000 41,300 14
15 OTHER REDS Zinfandel & White Zinfandel Blending Reds Rosé - Dry Rubired - Color Red Concentrate - $ High Color CLOSING Inventory Stable but Changing Who s Selling? Buyers Needed!!! Capacity Timing of Harvest Storage & Processing Quality Ultimate Key Sell Up Competition Other Beverages Land Commodity Cycles Always Change 15
16 Thank You! CIATTI-WORLD REPORT JOHN CIATTI 16
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