HVG Report Hop market and new coming products Where is the World hop market heading? Carlos Ruiz
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1 HVG Report 2011 Hop market and new coming products Where is the World hop market heading? Carlos Ruiz 1
2 Hop Production in Germany 2012 Acreage: ha No. of hop growers: Elbe-Saale Acreage: ha No. of hop growers: 29 Spalt Acreage: 348 ha No. of hop growers: 64 Tettnang Acreage: ha No. of hop growers: 153 Hallertau Acreage: ha No. of hop growers: 1.046
3 HVG s Significance on the Hop Market 2011 JBS Steiner Other HVG Data: own estimate
4 Hop Processing in Germany HVG e.g. Owners Joh. Barth & Sohn NATECO 2 CO 2 Extraction Plant Wolnzach Hopfenveredelung St. Johann Pellet Plant & Research Brewery St. Johann Evonik (chemicals, foodstuff) Hopsteiner Owner HHV Hallertauer Hopfenveredelungsgesellschaft Pellet Plant Au i.d. Hallertau HEG CO 2 Hop extraction Münchsmünster HHV Hallertauer Hopfenveredelungsgesellschaft Ethanol Extraction Mainburg HHV Hallertauer Hopfenveredelungsgesellschaft CO2- Extraction Mainburg?
5 HVG s Processing Plants 5
6 World-Wide Cultivated Hop Acreage 2012 Comparison: ha Barley cultivation in Germany 6
7 World Hop Acreage (in ha)
8 In % 60 Aroma Hops Development (in % of total area) D USA CHINA AUS
9 Structure of German Hop Production Germany Hallertau Tettnang Year Total Acreage ha/hop Farm Growers Total Acreage ha/hop Farm Growers Total Acreage ha/hop Farm Growers ha ø ha No. ha ø ha No. ha ø ha No , , , , , ,9 153 Elbe Saale Spalt Year Total Acreage ha/hop Farm Growers Total Acreage ha/hop Farm Growers ha ø ha No. ha ø ha No , , , ,4 64 9
10 Development of Acreage for Aroma Hops (in ha) Perle Tradition Select Saphir Hallert. Mfr. Hersbrucker Tettnanger 10
11 Development of Acreage for Bitter Hops (in ha) Magnum Taurus Nugget Herkules Northern Brew. 11
12 Aroma varieties: Classical and new breedings Production in Germany: Variety Acreage 2011 Acreage 2012 Diference in ha Diference in % PERLE HALLERTAUER TRADITION /- 0 HERSBRUCKER MITTELFRÜH /- 0 SPALTER SELECT TETTNANGER /- 0 SAPHIR Total ,7
13 New Varieties / Specialty varieties Germany 2012 (ha) Hallertau Blanc 5 Huell Melon 3 Mandarina Bavaria 13 Polaris USA 2011 (ha) 2012 (ha) increase in % Anthanum Chinook Cascade Centennial Citra Simcoe Amarillo
14 Facts about the growing special beer market World Hops production is of approx t 236 Mio hl in USA, Hop dosage averg. 30 g/hl = 7000 t Hops 12 Mio hl Craft Beers with 300 g/hl = 3600 t Hops ~ 5% of US-Beermarket requires ~ 34 % of the total hops quantity Quelle: Brewers Association 14
15 New Trends in Hüll Aroma Breeding Key substances of special flavor: citronellol = citrus like limonene = citrus like linalool = citrus, flowery like geraniol = flowery, rose like 4-mercapto-4-methyl-pentan 2-on = black currant like isobutyl isobutyrate = green apple like 2-methylbutyl isobutyrate = apricot flavor Essential oils of dried hop cones => difficult to predict aroma + flavor notes in beer Hop Breeding Research 15
16 2000/109/728 Polaris New high alpha breeding line with strong, pleasant, fruity, refreshing Gletschereisbonbon notes. Origin: 94/075/758 x 97/060/720 (Hüll breeding material) Aroma substances: Yield: high Total Oil 4.4 ml /100 g cone Myrcene 50 Ripening: late Beta-Caryophyllene 8.7 Resistance to diseases: Humulene 21.6 Downy Mildew tolerant Farnesene <0.1 Powdery Mildew resistant Alpha-Selinene 0.3 Wilt tolerant Isobutylisobutyrate Methylbutyl-isobutyrate 1.1 Linalool 0.2 Bitter substances: Geraniol 0.1 Alpha Acids 21.5 % Nerol 0.1 Beta Acids 5.5 % Citronellol 0.2 Cohumulone 27 % Limonene 1.1 Total oil (EBC 7.10); compounds in % of total oil (EBC 7.12) Hop Breeding and Hop Analytics 16
17 Quo Vadis Aroma Hops? Consequences for Germany as largest Hops nation 1.In the Euforia over new varieties with special or pronounced aroma charachteristics, it is important not to forget the traditional varieties with their original personality. 2.We will play a bigger role in the market segment of special flavour varieties, having the most advanced and large infrastructure for hops breeding. There are many developments in the pipeline. 3.The cultivation of German breedings will be also restricted to German cultivation areas 17
18 Sold Quantity in % of an average crop at stable acreage Hallertau
19 Development of average prices in Germany Forward Contract Price /kg Spot Market Price /kg Average Price /kg ,39 3,24 3, ,63 4,84 4, ,93 11,19 5, ,31 6,47 4, ,39 1,79 3, ,19 1,99 3, ,43 1,46 3,78 19
20 Intent of a forecast of hops demand Crop Year Alpha Production (to) Brewing Year * 2013* World Beer Production (Mio. hl) Estimated Dossage (g/hl) 4,5 4,4 4,2 4,1 4,0 4,0 World Alpha Requirement (to) Alpha-excess/deficit
21 Overview for 2012 The World Hops acreage has dropped since 2008 by ha (ca. 20%) There is a massive varietal switch in USA : From Bitter Hops to more aroma and special flavour varieties Estimations for 2012 show still a possible alpha acid excedent, which in combination with considerable existing stocks don t let us expect a short term improvement of the market conditions. Long Term forecast will become increasingly difficult, since the dry-hopped quantities and kettle aroma dossages will come to play a significant role in usage which is not necesarily accounted for through BU estimations Acreage Development shows the necessary tendency towards reduction, and as long as inventories are not consumed this trend will continue
22 Thank you for your attention
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