The Climates of the North Coast: Focus on Lake County. Gregory V. Jones Department of Environmental Studies

Transcription

1 The Climates of the North Coast: Focus on Lake County Gregory V. Jones Department of Environmental Studies June 4, 2013

2 Outline of Talk Overview of the General Climate Characteristics of the Western US, the North Coast, and Lake County West Coast Climate Variability Mechanisms Current Situation and 2013 Vintage Forecast

3 Climate Influences, Risks, and Challenges Weather and Climate present three distinct spatial and temporal scales of influences and risks to viticulture and wine production: Individual Weather Events (short-term/localized) Hail, frost/freezes, heavy rain, etc. Climate Variability (seasonal-decadal/regionalized) Dry or wet & warm or cold periods Climate Structure/Change (long-term/regional-global) Average & extreme temperatures, rainfall regimes Warming, cooling, changes in moisture regimes Crop Risk Production & Quality Variability Suitability

4 Climate Structure of the Western US, the North Coast, and Lake County

5 Spatial Analysis in Winegrape Growing Regions in the Western US Digitized AVA Boundaries 131 complete AVAs used (approved or pending as of 2008) Produced complete AVA area, elevation, and climate index summaries ( m resolution) Examined the usefullness of different climate indices in the Western US Similar work is done or in process for other wine regions worldwide Jones et al. (AJEV: Sept 2010, 61: )

6 Growing Degree-Days ( ) General AVA Statistics: Overall median GDD = 3087 Lowest median GDD = 1530 Highest median GDD = 4520 Median class structure over all AVAs: Class Count % (Region I) (Region II) (Region III) (Region IV) (Region V) Spatial distribution within AVAs depends on elevation differences, and proximity and orientation to coast Temporal distribution is +/ GDD off the median (>75% of the time) Growing Degree-Days (Base 50 F, Apr-Oct) < (Region I) (Region II) (Region III) (Region IV) (Region V) > 4900 Jones et al. (AJEV: Sept 2010, 61: )

7 AVA Growing Degree-Days Distributions Histogram of Winkler Region GDD Cells by AVA Histogram of Winkler Eola-Amity Region Hills GDD AVA Cells by AVA Number of Grid Cells 100% Region I Eola-Amity Hills AVA 2% Too Cold 78% Region I 20% Region II Number of Grid Cells GDD 4000< > GDD 5000 < > 2700 Histogram of Winkler Region GDD Cells by AVA 1% Region I 12% Region II 56% Region III Histogram of Winkler Napa Region Valley GDD AVA Cells by AVA 14% Region II 49% Region III 37% Region IV Napa Valley AVA 30% Region IV 1% Region V GDD < GDD > 2700 GDD < 850 < > > Rogue Valley AVA Histogram of Winkler Rogue Region Valley GDD AVA Cells by AVA Number of Grid Cells 18% Region I 82% Region II Walla Walla Valley AVA Histogram of Winkler Walla Walla Region Valley Cells AVA by AVA 26% Region I 58% Region II 16% Region III Number of Grid Cells Anderson Valley AVA AVA GDD 6000< > GDD 8000 < > Paso Robles AVA Histogram of Winkler Paso Region Robles GDD AVA Cells by AVA 78% Region IV 12% Region V Lodi AVA Histogram of Winkler Region Lodi AVA GDD Cells by AVA 100% Region V Madera AVA GDD < > 2700 GDD < > 2700 Growing Degree-Days (Base 50 F, Apr-Oct) < (Region I) (Region II) (Region III) (Region IV) (Region V) Jones et al. (AJEV: Sept 2010, 61: ) > 4900

8 AVA Area (ha) and Elevation (ft) AVA Name Area 1 (hectares) Elevation (ft) Median Max Min Range Benmore Valley Red Hills Lake County High Valley Howell Mountain Covelo Cole Ranch Clear Lake Atlas Peak Dos Rios Mendocino Ridge Rockpile Spring Mountain District York Mountain Mendocino Wild Horse Valley Potter Valley Redwood Valley Mt. Veeder Guenoc Valley Chiles Valley Capay Valley Diamond Mountain North Coast Sonoma Mountain Knights Valley Napa Valley McDowell Valley Dry Creek Valley Sonoma Valley Anderson Valley Bennett Valley Northern Sonoma Alexander Valley Calistoga Solano Co Green Valley Chalk Hill St. Helena Sonoma Co Green Valley Yountville Sonoma Coast Russian River Valley Dunnigan Hills Coombsville Rutherford Oakville Stags Leap District Los Carneros Oak Knoll District Susiun Valley

9 Area (ha) and Elevation (ft) AVA Name Area (ha) Elevation (ft) Median Max Min Range Benmore Valley Guenoc Valley High Valley Red Hills Lake County Clear Lake ~200 growers ~8500 acres planted The majority of the vineyards are planted above 1,500 ft Cabernet Sauvignon, Sauvignon Blanc, Petite Sirah, Merlot, Syrah, Cabernet Franc, Zinfandel, Tempranillo, Chardonnay, Riesling, and many other varieties planted ~35 wineries

10 AVA Growing Degree-Days (F units) Median = 3218 Stdev = 321 Max = 4217 Min = 2596 Range = 1622 AVA Name Growing Degree-Days (base 50 F) Min 25% Median 75% Max Range Sonoma Coast Sonoma Co Green Valley Mendocino Ridge Russian River Valley Anderson Valley Bennett Valley Yorkville Highlands North Coast Chalk Hill Los Carneros Dos Rios Northern Sonoma Howell Mountain Sonoma Valley Covelo Redwood Valley Rockpile Potter Valley Cole Ranch Atlas Peak Dry Creek Valley Alexander Valley Mendocino Spring Mountain District Knights Valley McDowell Valley Sonoma Mt Benmore Valley Oak Knoll District Clear Lake Chiles Valley Diamond Mountain Coombsville Mt. Veeder Napa Valley Rutherford St. Helena Yountville Calistoga Oakville Guenoc Valley Stags Leap District High Valley Red Hills Lake County Susiun Valley Wild Horse Valley Solano Co Green Valley Capay Valley Dunnigan Hills

11 Laytonville Covelo Willits Ukiah Cloverdale Healdsburg Santa Rosa Petaluma AVA Growing Degree-Days (F units) Median = 3218 Stdev = 321 Max = 4217 Min = 2596 Range = 1622 Clearlake St Helena Napa AVA Name Growing Degree-Days (base 50 F) Min 25% Median 75% Max Range Sonoma Coast Sonoma Co Green Valley Mendocino Ridge Russian River Valley Anderson Valley Bennett Valley Yorkville Highlands North Coast Chalk Hill Los Carneros Dos Rios Northern Sonoma Howell Mountain Sonoma Valley Covelo Redwood Valley Rockpile Potter Valley Cole Ranch Atlas Peak Dry Creek Valley Alexander Valley Mendocino Spring Mountain District Knights Valley McDowell Valley Sonoma Mt Benmore Valley Oak Knoll District Clear Lake Chiles Valley Diamond Mountain Coombsville Mt. Veeder Napa Valley Rutherford St. Helena Yountville Calistoga Oakville Guenoc Valley Stags Leap District High Valley Red Hills Lake County Susiun Valley Wild Horse Valley Solano Co Green Valley Capay Valley Dunnigan Hills

12 Growing Degree-Days AVA Name Growing Degree-Days (base 50 F) Min 25% Median 75% Max Range Benmore Valley Clear Lake Guenoc Valley High Valley Red Hills Lake County

13 Shape and Characteristics of GDD Accumulation Growing Degree-Days (50 F base) Bordeaux 2767 Oakville 3247 One region has early accumulation which drives earlier growth Similar harvest dates but one has a cooler ripening window Similar peak accumulation, but one achieves it via lower DTR ( Tmax, Tmin), the other via a higher DTR ( Tmax, Tmin) Month (Jan-Dec) Unpublished Data

14 Growing Degree-Days (Base 50 F) GDD - North Coast and Surrounding Area Climate Normals Mean 3210 Stdev 894 Max 4691 Min 934 Range 3756 ANGWIN BODEGA CALISTOGA CLEARLAKE CLOVERDALE COLUSA COVELO EAST PARK RSVR FAIRFIELD FT BRAGG FT ROSS GRATON HEALDSBURG LAKE SOLANO MARKLEY COVE NAPA CO AP NAPA STATE HOSPITAL OCCIDENTAL PETALUMA POTTER VALLEY SAINT HELENA SAN RAFAEL SANTA ROSA SONOMA CO AP SANTA ROSA SONOMA STONY GORGE RSVR UKIAH FAA AP 200 UKIAH VACAVILLE WARM SPRINGS DAM 100 WILLITS WILLOWS 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec WINTERS YOUNTVILLE Average

15 Laytonville Covelo Willits Ukiah Cloverdale Healdsburg Santa Rosa Petaluma AVA Last Spring Frost (date/days) Median = 15-Mar Stdev = 17.9 Max = 2-May Min = 16-Feb Range = 75 Clearlake St Helena Napa AVA Name Median Max Min Range Covelo 2-May 15-May 24-Apr 21 Dos Rios 29-Apr 9-May 17-Apr 22 Redwood Valley 18-Apr 1-May 3-Apr 28 Clear Lake 16-Apr 1-May 22-Mar 40 Potter Valley 15-Apr 27-Apr 7-Apr 20 Cole Ranch 11-Apr 11-Apr 8-Apr 3 Guenoc Valley 7-Apr 10-Apr 18-Mar 23 Atlas Peak 6-Apr 21-Apr 19-Mar 33 Mendocino 5-Apr 25-Apr 10-Mar 46 Benmore Valley 3-Apr 7-Apr 2-Apr 5 Mendocino Ridge 3-Apr 17-Apr 27-Feb 49 Howell Mountain 3-Apr 7-Apr 19-Mar 19 High Valley 2-Apr 23-Apr 23-Mar 31 McDowell Valley 2-Apr 6-Apr 29-Mar 8 Red Hills Lake County 1-Apr 19-Apr 23-Mar 27 Yorkville Highlands 31-Mar 13-Apr 4-Mar 40 Chiles Valley 30-Mar 6-Apr 17-Mar 20 Anderson Valley 27-Mar 12-Apr 14-Mar 29 Diamond Mountain 24-Mar 29-Mar 17-Mar 12 Calistoga 24-Mar 29-Mar 15-Mar 14 North Coast 23-Mar 15-May 24-Jan 111 Spring Mountain District 22-Mar 30-Mar 13-Mar 17 Napa Valley 19-Mar 30-Apr 31-Jan 89 Mt. Veeder 15-Mar 30-Apr 15-Feb 74 Knights Valley 15-Mar 12-May 3-Mar 70 Capay Valley 13-Mar 16-Apr 18-Feb 57 St. Helena 13-Mar 26-Mar 10-Mar 16 Wild Horse Valley 12-Mar 2-Apr 24-Feb 37 Rockpile 12-Mar 27-Mar 7-Mar 20 Sonoma Mt. 11-Mar 22-Mar 1-Mar 21 Sonoma Co Green Valley 11-Mar 16-Mar 4-Mar 12 Sonoma Valley 10-Mar 30-Apr 11-Feb 78 Chalk Hill 10-Mar 12-Mar 8-Mar 4 Rutherford 9-Mar 12-Mar 7-Mar 5 Oakville 8-Mar 21-Mar 3-Mar 18 Northern Sonoma 7-Mar 11-May 19-Feb 81 Stags Leap District 6-Mar 13-Mar 4-Mar 9 Dry Creek Valley 6-Mar 25-Mar 19-Feb 34 Yountville 5-Mar 19-Mar 23-Feb 24 Bennett Valley 5-Mar 18-Mar 25-Feb 21 Alexander Valley 5-Mar 29-Mar 24-Feb 33 Russian River Valley 5-Mar 16-Mar 21-Feb 23 Sonoma Coast 4-Mar 16-Apr 3-Feb 72 Coombsville 1-Mar 24-Mar 23-Feb 29 Oak Knoll District 28-Feb 5-Mar 25-Feb 8 Solano Co Green Valley 20-Feb 3-Apr 15-Feb 47 Los Carneros 20-Feb 14-Mar 9-Feb 33 Susiun Valley 16-Feb 24-Feb 10-Feb 14 Dunnigan Hills 16-Feb 1-Mar 8-Feb 21

16 Last Spring Frost (date/days) AVA Name Median Max Min Range Clear Lake 16-Apr 1-May 22-Mar 40 Guenoc Valley 7-Apr 10-Apr 18-Mar 23 Benmore Valley 3-Apr 7-Apr 2-Apr 5 High Valley 2-Apr 23-Apr 23-Mar 31 Red Hills Lake County 1-Apr 19-Apr 23-Mar 27

17 Laytonville Covelo Willits Ukiah Cloverdale Healdsburg Santa Rosa Petaluma AVA First Fall Frost (date/days) Median = 29-Nov Stdev = 11.8 Max = 13-Dec Min = 22-Oct Range = 52 Clearlake St Helena Napa AVA Name Median Max Min Range Covelo 22-Oct 20-Nov 15-Oct 36 Dos Rios 25-Oct 21-Nov 15-Oct 37 Clear Lake 3-Nov 7-Dec 22-Oct 46 Potter Valley 3-Nov 1-Dec 26-Oct 36 Redwood Valley 5-Nov 21-Nov 21-Oct 31 Guenoc Valley 10-Nov 4-Dec 6-Nov 28 McDowell Valley 12-Nov 18-Nov 10-Nov 8 Sonoma Co Green Valley 14-Nov 3-Dec 11-Nov 22 Mendocino 15-Nov 13-Dec 25-Oct 49 Cole Ranch 17-Nov 18-Nov 16-Nov 2 Anderson Valley 18-Nov 25-Nov 7-Nov 18 Mendocino Ridge 19-Nov 30-Dec 2-Nov 58 Calistoga 19-Nov 8-Dec 15-Nov 23 Russian River Valley 22-Nov 19-Dec 10-Nov 39 North Coast 25-Nov 1-Jan 15-Oct 78 High Valley 25-Nov 4-Dec 28-Oct 37 Yorkville Highlands 26-Nov 15-Dec 7-Nov 38 Atlas Peak 26-Nov 7-Dec 6-Nov 31 St. Helena 26-Nov 6-Dec 19-Nov 17 Rutherford 26-Nov 9-Dec 25-Nov 14 Capay Valley 27-Nov 10-Dec 7-Nov 33 Oakville 27-Nov 10-Dec 25-Nov 15 Red Hills Lake County 28-Nov 4-Dec 27-Oct 38 Alexander Valley 28-Nov 18-Dec 22-Nov 26 Sonoma Coast 29-Nov 1-Jan 15-Oct 78 Chiles Valley 29-Nov 14-Dec 13-Nov 31 Yountville 29-Nov 21-Dec 27-Nov 24 Northern Sonoma 30-Nov 26-Dec 19-Oct 68 Howell Mountain 30-Nov 9-Dec 22-Nov 17 Diamond Mountain 30-Nov 9-Dec 15-Nov 24 Stags Leap District 30-Nov 12-Dec 28-Nov 14 Dry Creek Valley 30-Nov 20-Dec 18-Nov 32 Chalk Hill 30-Nov 4-Dec 25-Nov 9 Dunnigan Hills 1-Dec 4-Dec 25-Nov 9 Oak Knoll District 1-Dec 12-Dec 29-Nov 13 Knights Valley 1-Dec 11-Dec 14-Nov 27 Napa Valley 2-Dec 1-Jan 15-Nov 47 Spring Mountain District 3-Dec 11-Dec 20-Nov 21 Los Carneros 3-Dec 1-Jan 6-Dec 26 Coombsville 5-Dec 26-Dec 26-Nov 30 Susiun Valley 6-Dec 26-Dec 3-Dec 23 Sonoma Valley 6-Dec 27-Dec 14-Nov 43 Sonoma Mt. 7-Dec 16-Dec 27-Nov 19 Solano Co Green Valley 8-Dec 29-Dec 6-Dec 23 Benmore Valley 8-Dec 8-Dec 6-Dec 2 Mt. Veeder 8-Dec 27-Dec 15-Nov 42 Wild Horse Valley 10-Dec 26-Dec 20-Nov 36 Rockpile 13-Dec 20-Dec 15-Nov 35 Bennett Valley 13-Dec 20-Dec 30-Nov 20

18 First Fall Frost (date/days) AVA Name Median Max Min Range Clear Lake 3-Nov 7-Dec 22-Oct 46 Guenoc Valley 10-Nov 4-Dec 6-Nov 28 High Valley 25-Nov 4-Dec 28-Oct 37 Red Hills Lake County 28-Nov 4-Dec 27-Oct 38 Benmore Valley 8-Dec 8-Dec 6-Dec 2

19 Laytonville Covelo Willits Ukiah Cloverdale Healdsburg Santa Rosa Petaluma AVA Frost Free Period (days) Clearlake Median = 259 Stdev = 28 Max = 293 Min = 173 Range = 120 St Helena Napa AVA Name Median Max Min Range Covelo Dos Rios Clear Lake Redwood Valley Potter Valley Guenoc Valley Cole Ranch McDowell Valley Mendocino Mendocino Ridge Atlas Peak High Valley Anderson Valley Calistoga Red Hills Lake County Howell Mountain Yorkville Highlands Chiles Valley North Coast Benmore Valley Sonoma Co Green Valley Diamond Mountain Spring Mountain District Knights Valley Capay Valley St. Helena Napa Valley Rutherford Russian River Valley Oakville Chalk Hill Mt. Veeder Sonoma Valley Yountville Stags Leap District Sonoma Mt Alexander Valley Northern Sonoma Dry Creek Valley Sonoma Coast Wild Horse Valley Oak Knoll District Rockpile Coombsville Bennett Valley Los Carneros Dunnigan Hills Solano Co Green Valley Susiun Valley

20 Frost Free Period (days) AVA Name Median Max Min Range Clear Lake Guenoc Valley High Valley Red Hills Lake County Benmore Valley

21 Laytonville Covelo Willits Ukiah Cloverdale Healdsburg Santa Rosa Petaluma AVA Annual Precipitation (inches) Median = 41.1 Stdev = 8.3 Max = 57.4 Min = 20.4 Range = 37.0 Clearlake St Helena Napa AVA Name Median Max Min Range Dunnigan Hills Capay Valley Susiun Valley Solano Co Green Valley Coombsville Los Carneros Oak Knoll District Stags Leap District Yountville High Valley Wild Horse Valley Napa Valley Oakville Clear Lake Rutherford St. Helena Chiles Valley Atlas Peak Calistoga McDowell Valley Red Hills Lake County Sonoma Coast Russian River Valley Chalk Hill Mt. Veeder Diamond Mountain Howell Mountain Knights Valley Anderson Valley Guenoc Valley Sonoma Valley Alexander Valley Sonoma Mt Potter Valley Redwood Valley Bennett Valley Sonoma Co Green Valley Northern Sonoma Mendocino North Coast Spring Mountain District Covelo Benmore Valley Cole Ranch Yorkville Highlands Dry Creek Valley Dos Rios Mendocino Ridge Rockpile

22 Annual Precipitation (inches) AVA Name Median Max Min Range High Valley Clear Lake Red Hills Lake County Guenoc Valley Benmore Valley

23 West Coast Climate Variability

24 Climate Variability Mechanisms Most mechanisms are winter/spring dominant, but can influence vintages Much interaction between regional and distant mechanisms via teleconnections Impact studies are lacking in many regions Jones et al. (2012: The Geography of Wine)

25 Pacific Ocean/North America Climate Variability Mechanisms Cold water in central North Pacific supports a trough there Warm water along West Coast supports ridge there PNW = warmer and drier California = wetter and slightly warmer Warm water in central North Pacific supports a ridge there Cool water along West Coast supports a trough there PNW = colder and wetter California = drier and moderately colder Jones and Goodrich (Climate Research 2008)

26 El Niño and warm PDO La Niña and cold PDO

27 Current Situation and 2013 Vintage Forecast

28 Current Sea Surface Temperatures

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31 Current and Projected Pacific Ocean/North America Climate Variability Mechanisms Neutral ENSO projected through late summer 2013 Negative phase of the PDO (cold coastal waters), projected to warm through late summer 2013 These conditions historically bring a slightly cooler than normal spring and near normal precipitation for Oregon, Washington, and Idaho; but warm & dry in California Summer is mixed, but tends to point to more normal temperatures and GDD

32 Summary/Conclusions

33 Lake County Wine Region Approximately 200 growers with over 8500 acres planted to elevations 1500 ft or higher

34 Lake County Wine Region Mountain environment along the axis of cab...

35 Lake County Wine Region Landscape and climate conditions suitable for a wide range of varieties

36 Lake County Wine Region Landscape and climate conditions suitable for a wide range of varieties GDD Median last spring frost early to mid April Median first fall frost early November to early December Median frost-free period days Annual precipitation inches

37 Lake County Wine Region Landscape and climate conditions suitable for a wide range of varieties High UV radiation influences on ripening High diurnal temperature ranges, retention of acidity Truncation of season to cool nights during ripening Moderation effects of Clear Lake Both mountain-valley breezes and strong lake-land breezes enhance local moderation

38 Spring/Summer 2013 Forecast Summary For the Western US in general: Tropical SST conditions have warmed North Pacific SST conditions, warmer but still remain cooler than normal Taken together these conditions tilt the odds in favor of a cool and moderately dry (south) to slightly wet (north) late spring to early summer for the Western US Dynamic models and historical analogs point to normal heat accumulation during the second half of summer

39 Thank You! Gregory V. Jones Dept of Environmental Studies