2018 SVB Wine Report Videocast. Rob McMillan EVP & Founder, Silicon Valley Bank Wine Division January 17, 2018
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1 2018 SVB Wine Report Videocast Rob McMillan EVP & Founder, Silicon Valley Bank Wine Division January 17, 2018
2 About the 2018 SVB Wine Videocast These slides were shared during a live videocast on January 17, We will publish the full 2018 SVB Wine report in February 2018 and a link to the report when it is available. Rob McMillan will also notify his blog followers at For future reference, the 2018 report will be published in February on our website at If you have questions or comments about the 2018 SVB Wine Report, videocast or wine surveys please winesurvey@svb.com SVB Wine Report Videocast 2
3 2018 SVB Wine Report Videocast Moderator and panel of experts Rob McMillan EVP and Founder Premium Wine Division Silicon Valley Bank Gretchen Boock Chief Executive Officer Dobbes Family Estate / Wines By Joe Mary Jo Dale Marketing Director Americas Vinventions / Nomacorc Paul Mabray Wine Industry Digital Futurist and Director, Getemetry.com 2018 SVB Wine Report Videocast 3
4 Growth Rates in US Luxury Sales Are Decelerating Luxury good sales 2005 present and forecast to 2021 Figure Recession Percent Sales Growth Designer Apparel and Footwear (Ready-to-Wear) Fine Wines/Champagne and Spirits Luxury Eyewear Luxury Jewellery Luxury Leather Goods Luxury Timepieces Luxury Writing Instruments and Stationery Super Premium Beauty and Personal Care Source: Euromonitor International, Passport, Dec SVB Wine Report Videocast 3
5 US Wine Consumption Is Slowing After 20 Year Run Premiumization only part of the reason Figure 2? Millions of Gallons Note: Recessions Source: CA Wine Institute 2018 SVB Wine Report Videocast 5
6 Indulgence Gap 10K Boomers replaced by 10K millennials daily Figure 3 Debt Strapped Millennials Gainfully Employed Gen X Retiring Boomers Wealth 2018 SVB Wine Report Videocast 6
7 Rolling 52 Week Sales Growth Above $9.00 Weakening Figure 4 $2,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0 $9-$11.99 $12-$14.99 $15-$19.99 >$20 Source: Nielsen Beverage 2018 SVB Wine Report Videocast 6
8 Warehouse Shipment Trends January 2013 to September 2017 Figure % $30,000, % $25,000, % $20,000, % $15,000, % $10,000, % $5,000, % $0 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Month % Chng % Of Total California Volume Latest 12 Months Source: Gomberg-Fredrickson, BW SVB Wine Report Videocast 7
9 Import s Share of US Wine Sales Figure Percent Source: Gomberg Fredrickson, Nielsen, SVB analysis 2018 SVB Wine Report Videocast 8
10 Percent of Winery Revenues Sold Through Restaurant Channel Dropping Switch to other channels Figure 7 31% 19% 16% 17% (est) Source: SVB Industry Conditions Survey, SVB Wine Report Videocast 9
11 Percent of Average Winery Sales Sold Through Restaurants By Case Production Consistent declines in importance Figure 8 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 1-2,500 2,501-5,000 5,001-10,000 10,001-25,000 25,001-50,000 50, , , ,000 > 250,000 Average est 2017 Source: SVB Industry Conditions Survey, SVB Wine Report Videocast 10
12 Premium Varietal Growth Chardonnay overtakes red blends as second largest growth varietal Figure 9 $120,000,000 $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $0 ($20,000,000) Chardonnay Cab Sauv Pinot Grigio Red Blends Pinot Noir Sauv Blanc Merlot Moscato Zinfandel Box Wine $14+ $8-$11 $11-$15 $15-$19 $20-$25 $25+ Source: IRI 2018 SVB Wine Report Videocast 12
13 Generation Preference Curves for Wine versus Average Price Point Figure 10 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% < $15 $15 - $19 $20 - $29 $30 - $39 $40 - $69 > $ Millennials (ages 22-38) 2017 Gen X (ages 39-50) 2017 Boomers (ages 51-68) 2017 Matures (ages 69+) * Estimated from 2016 SVB Wine Conditions Survey 2018 SVB Wine Report Videocast 12
14 Growth Rate by Price Point and Regions 52 Week change in dollars ending December 2, 2017 Figure 11 Price Ranges Region Total Table $0 - $2.99 $3 - $5.99 $6 - $8.99 $9 - $11.99 $12 - $14.99 $15 - $19.99 $20 - $29.99 $30 - $49.99 $50 - $99.99 $100+ Oregon France New Zealand Italy Total Domestic California Total Imported Washington Australia Spain Chile Argentina 2018 SVB Wine Report Videocast 14
15 DTC Spending in Club by Gender and Age, versus Discretionary Income Thirty-five to fifty-five is the dominant cohort, but long spending tail Figure 12 $35,000 $7,000 $30,000 $6,000 Discretionary Income $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Annual Club Member Spend $ $0 female male Discretionary Income Source: Customer Vineyards, Census Bureau 2018 SVB Wine Report Videocast 15
16 Income Statement Trends and Benchmarks Figure % Sales Growth and Pretax Profit 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 57.0% 55.0% 53.0% 51.0% 49.0% 47.0% Gross Margin -5.0% 12/31/ /31/ /31/ /31/ /31/ /31/ /31/ /31/ /31/2016 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 Gross Margin 55.3% 52.4% 53.7% 53.2% 53.4% 54.8% 56.8% 56.9% 57.4% 57.5% 56.7% Sales Growth 2.0% -3.8% 10.8% 12.2% 7.7% 9.2% 11.9% 8.8% 9.6% 9.8% 0.3% Pretax Profit 9.5% 2.2% 6.7% 6.1% 6.9% 6.6% 8.0% 9.6% 10.2% 11.6% 9.7% 45.0% Source: Silicon Valley Bank Peer Group Analysis Data Base 2018 SVB Wine Report Videocast 15
17 Change In Monthly Visitor Counts to Winery Downward trend is consistent except OR, VA, NY Figure 14 3,000 2,500 2,179 2,300 2,000 1,500 1,272 1, Oregon Washington Napa County Sonoma County Virginia New York Source: Silicon Valley Bank, DTC Surveys, SVB Wine Report Videocast 17
18 Disclosure This material, including without limitation to the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part on information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable but which have not been independently verified by us, and for this reason we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice, nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation, offer or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction. Silicon Valley Bank is not selling or distributing wine or wine-related products. Through the online informational platform, SVB Cellar Selections, Silicon Valley Bank provides material to employees about a variety of premium Silicon Valley Bank winery clients and their wines. These communications are for informational purposes only. Silicon Valley Bank is not responsible for (or a participant in) the sales of any wineries products in any fashion or manner and makes no representations that any promotion or sales of alcoholic beverages will or will not be conducted in a lawful manner. Further, Silicon Valley Bank disclaims any responsibility or warranty for any products sold by wineries or other wine industry service providers SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license. CompID 1130 The views expressed in the videocast are solely those of the panelists and do not reflect the views of SVB Financial Group, Silicon Valley Bank, or any of its affiliates template optional footer for footnotes or presentation title 18
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