CropCast China Weekly Report Kenny Miller Wednesday, May 31, 2017
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1 China Hotspots Dryness has increased across central and eastern North China Plain. Improvements will be limited to north-central areas this week as dry weather and warm temperatures increase stress on crop growth in eastern North China Plain. Rains should ease some of the dryness in eastern Yangtze Valley, however. China Vegetative Health Index (VHI) China Change in VHI from Last Year
2 Past Week Rainfall (mm) Northeast China and North China Plain Northeast China (Manchuria) PAST WEEK: Showers favored south-central areas last week, with light showers favoring western locales. FORECAST: Showers should primarily favor eastern areas this week. CROP IMPACT: Continued showers in eastern areas will maintain plenty of moisture there for corn and soybean germination, but dryness will continue across the western tier of the region. Precip % Normal-Past 45 Days North China Plain Past Week Temp Departure ( C) PAST WEEK: Spotty showers favored northcentral areas last week. FORECAST: Light showers will be limited to northern areas the next several days, but heavier showers are possible in western and central areas early next week. CROP IMPACT: Dryness will continue to build across eastern and central North China Plain the next several days as the pattern remains dry and temperatures remain warm. Some relief is possible early in the 6-10 day period across western areas, however. % of Total Chinese Crop Produced in Each Region Crop Northeast China North China Plain Corn 40% 40% Soybeans 40% 35% Wheat 10% 60% Cotton 0% 55% Rice 5% 5% Groundnuts 0% 65% Rapeseed 0% 5%
3 Past Week Rainfall (mm) Yangtze Valley and South China Yangtze Valley PAST WEEK: Dry weather prevailed last week. FORECAST: Rains should favor western and southern areas this week. CROP IMPACT: Dry weather last week allowed dryness to redevelop over southern and western areas. Increasing rains this week should ease some of the dryness in southern areas, but dryness will maintain some stress on corn and soybeans in northeastern and western areas. Precip % Normal-Past 45 Days South China PAST WEEK: Showers were limited to eastern areas last week. FORECAST: Rains should build across the region this week. CROP IMPACT: Increasing rains across the region should noticeably improve moisture in advance of rice and groundnut growth. Past Week Temp Departure ( C) % of Total Chinese Crop Produced in Each Region Crop Yangtze Valley South China Corn 15% 5% Soybeans 20% 5% Wheat 30% 0% Cotton 35% 0% Rice 65% 25% Groundnuts 15% 20% Rapeseed 95% 0%
4 China 1-7 Day Forecast China 8-14 Day Forecast China Next Month Forecast
5 CROPCAST WHEAT FORECAST FOR CHINA AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2017 PRODUCTION CHANGE (T HA) (KG/HA) (TMT) OVER PAST WK OVER PERCENT ACTUAL PERCENT ACTUAL Inner Mongolia Shanxi Heilongjiang Gansu Hubei Xinjiang Shaanxi Sichuan Anhui Jiangsu Hebei Henan Shandong CHINA CROPCAST RICE FORECAST FOR CHINA AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2016 PRODUCTION CHANGE Guizhou Yunnan Heilongjiang Fujian Guangxi Zhejiang Anhui Guangdong Jiangxi Hubei Jiangsu Sichuan Hunan CHINA (1) MULTIPLY BY 0.7 TO GET MILLLED RICE ESTIMATE
6 CROPCAST SOYBEANS FORECAST FOR CHINA AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2016 PRODUCTION CHANGE Jiangxi Shaanxi Sichuan Hubei Hunan Liaoning Jiangsu Anhui Hebei Inner Mongolia Jilin Henan Shandong Heilongjiang CHINA CROPCAST CORN FORECAST FOR CHINA AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2016 PRODUCTION CHANGE Anhui Xinjiang Guizhou Jiangsu Yunnan Shaanxi Shanxi Nei Mongol Sichuan Liaoning Henan Hebei Heilongjiang Shandong Jilin CHINA
7 CROPCAST RAPESEED FORECAST FOR CHINA AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2017 PRODUCTION CHANGE (T HA) (KG/HA) (TMT) OVER PAST WK OVER PERCENT ACTUAL PERCENT ACTUAL Shaanxi Henan Zhejiang Guizhou Jiangxi Hunan Jiangsu Sichuan Hubei Anhui CHINA CROPCAST COTTONSEED FORECAST FOR CHINA AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2016 PRODUCTION CHANGE Sichuan Jiangxi Hunan Anhui Hebei Shandong Hubei Jiangsu Henan Xinjiang CHINA
8 CROPCAST PEANUTS FORECAST FOR CHINA AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2016 PRODUCTION CHANGE Hunan Fujian Hubei Sichuan Jiangxi Guangxi Jiangsu Anhui Guangdong Hebei Henan Shandong CHINA China Regions North China Plain Yangtze River Valley Manchuria South
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