HIGH FRUCTOSE CORN SYRUP-THE WILDCARD IN THE U.S.-MEXICO SWEETENER MARKET. Juan A. Cortina Gallardo
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1 Agricultural Outlook Forum Presented: February 24-25, 2011 U.S. Department of Agriculture HIGH FRUCTOSE CORN SYRUP-THE WILDCARD IN THE U.S.-MEXICO SWEETENER MARKET Juan A. Cortina Gallardo
2 HIGH FRUCTOSE CORN SYRUP-THE WILDCARD IN THE U.S.-MEXICO SWEETENER MARKET FEBRUARY, 2011
3 INDEX I. Mexico leading sugar producer with a large Sweetener Market. II. North American Regional Market a Reality: II a) Mexican Sweetener Market. II b) U.S. Sweetener Market. II c) U.S. and Mexico Sweetener Market. III. Mexico: Sugar Balance 2010/011 marketing year, advance to January 31,
4 38,798 I. Mexico leading sugar producer with a large Sweetener Market. Mexico: World's sixth Leading Sugar Producer Cycle 2009/2010 Thousand metric tons, raw value 25,000 Mexico: World's sixth Leading Sugar Consumer Cycle 2009/2010 Thousand metric tons, raw value 20,325 15,250 13,123 11,673 7,169 7,119 5,026 4,282 4,090 3,635 3,596 9,403 6,055 5,323 5,303 4,565 3,574 2,771 Brazil India China Tailand USA Mexico Germany France Australia Russia India China Brazil USA Russia Mexico Indonesia Pakistan Germany Egypt Source: F.O.Licht's Intarnational Sugar and Sweetener Report World Sugar Balances 2000/ / ,000 5,000 4,301 4,528 4,569 4,774 Mexican Market: Sugar and HFCS Consumption Thousand MetricTons 5,219 4,919 5,095 5,138 5,291 5,689 5,294 5,352 5,623 5,771 5,822 4,000 3,000 2,000 3,838 4,025 4,068 4,214 4,629 4,578 4,920 4,897 4,823 5,026 4,580 4,567 4,958 4,354 4,392 1,000 1,418 1, /97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 Proj. 10/11 Source: CNIAA and Ministryof Economy HFCS, dry weight Sugar 3
5 I. Mexico leading sugar producer with a large Sweetener Market. 6,100 Mexican Sugar: Production and Consumption Thousand Metric Tons 5,796 5,600 5,100 4,600 4,100 4,034 3,951 4,077 4,037 4,275 4,406 4,543 5,174 4,699 4,696 4,214 4,924 4,629 4,872 4,578 4,928 4,920 5,024 4,897 4,823 5,276 5,026 5,314 4,580 5,521 4,567 4,962 4,958 4,826 4,354 5,368 4,392 3,600 3,559 3,910 4,048 3,984 3,838 4,025 4,068 3,100 3,266 3,529 Production Consumption 1,600 1,518 Mexican Sugar Export to USA and the Rest of the World Thousand Metric Tons 1,400 1,281 1,249 1,200 1,111 1, Source: CNIAA Imports Exports
6 US SWEETENER INDUSTRY North American Sweetener market fully integrated. Since the market opened: Mexico has exported more than 2,7 millions sugar tons to U.S. Mexico has imported 1,7 millions tons dry of HFCS from U.S. Good Coordination and cooperation between Mexican and U.S. Governments regarding sweeteners: Mochis La Primavera El Dorado A. Saenz MEXICAN SUGAR INDUSTRY The Administration in each country sugar program consistent with NAFTA obligations. El Mante Puga El Molino Bellavista Sn. Fco. Ameca M. Ocampo José Ma. Mor. Tala Tamazula Quesería Santa Clara L. Cárdenas Pedernales S. M. Naranjo Casasano E. Zapata El Higo Zapoapita Plan de San Luis Atencingo Independencia Calipam P. Machado A. L. Mateos Sta. Rosalía B. Juárez El Refugio Pujiltic Huixtla La Joya. Azsuremex Mexico is a reliable supplier in the integrated North American Regional Market. 5
7 II a) Mexican Sweetener Market Mexico: Production, imports and national consumption of HFCS, Marketing years 1991/92 to 2010/11 (projected) (Metric Tons, dry weight) 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,417,710 Projeted 1,430,157 1,200,000 1,000,000 20% tax to soft drinks sweetened with sweeteners different to cane sugar. 954, , , , , , ,218 Period without domestic production of HFCS 34,794 22,218 34,794 72,704 96,061 72,704 96, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,758 Antidumping investigation against HFCS 175, , , , , ,651 5,915 5, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,186 Substitution of sugar due to lower HFCS prices 1991/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /11 Domestic Production Imports Domestic Consumption Source: CNIAA and CONADESUCA Note: In the World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates (WASDE) on February 9,2011 the HFCS consumption is projected in 1,750 thousand metric tons, dry weight. 6
8 II a) Mexican Sweetener Market 0 100,000 57,036 39,088 82,761 40,478 60,019 37,860 HFCS Imports and Production, Metric tons, dry weight 91,993 38,334 Oct 09 Nov'10 Dec'09 Jan'11 (Preliminary) Production Imports 70,324 38,321 83,060 38,708 The production estimated of HFCS in cycle 2010/2011, will increase about 1%. 54,125 38,637 74,995 39,173 In the cycle 2010/2011 (to january), Mexico has imported 332,809 metric tons dry weight, 38% up that in the same period in the last cycle. HFCS Imports and Production, cycles 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 Metric tons, dry weight 1,417,710 Metric tons Domestic Consumption 1,430,157 Metric tons 954, , , , / /2011 Proj. Production Imports 7
9 II a) Mexican Sweetener Market Commercial Year Metric Tons, dry weight 2008/ , /2010 1,417, /2011*/ Projected 1,430,157 HFCS consumption, from Oct 08 to Jan 11 Metric tons, dry weight 100,000 0 Oct 08 Oct'09 Nov'08 Nov'09 Dec'08 Dec'09 Jan'09 Jan'10 Feb'09 Feb'10 Mar'09 Mar'10 Apr'09 Apr'10 May'09 May'10 Jun'09 Jun'10 Jul'09 Jul'10 Aug'09 Aug'10 Sep'09 Sep'10 Oct 09 Oct'10 Nov'09 Nov'10 Dec'09 Dec'10 Jan'10 Jan'11 60,757 96,124 43,388 97,879 53, ,644 36,730 92,761 38,147 95,596 42, ,152 50, ,128 60, ,651 62, ,640 62, ,740 70, ,456 82, ,939 96, ,239 97, , , ,767 92, ,305 */ preliminary Source: CNIAA 8
10 II b) USA Sweetener Market 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000 12,500 12,000 13,175 14,314 13,533 U.S and Mexico Sugar: Combined Production plus Minimum of U.S. Imports and combined Consumption Thousand Metric Tons, raw value Combined Production plus Minimum of U.S. Imports* 13,881 12,336 13,475 14,012 13,719 12,873 14,368 14,315 14,433 14,160 13,176 Combined Consumption Combined Production 13,294 12,316 14,565 14,543 13,562 13,295 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 Proj. 10/11 * Mexico and U.S. Production plus Minimum of U.S. Imports (WTO & CAFTA) 14,127 14,617 14,498 13,248 12,092 14,537 13,350 14,500 13,603 12,343 14,300 14,178 12,915 Source: USDA, 2010/2011 forecast 9
11 II b) USA Sweetener Market Equivalent in million short tons, raw value From its peak in 2002, total HFCS domestic demand through 2010 fell 15.2 percent HFCS Domestic Demand Fiscal Year 10
12 II c) U.S. and Mexico Sweetener Market Mexico and U.S.: Behaviour of prices under NAFTA FOB Sugar Mill price Oct 09-Feb 11: Mexico (SNIIM standard and refined) and U.S. (C-16 and Sugar beet Midwest) (U.S. Dollars/Metric Tons) 1, DPD-CNIAA 1, , , , Price Midwest Beet EUA, 1, Price SNIIM Refined Sugar, Price C-16 EUA, Price SNIIM Standard Sugar, Comercial Year 09/10 Comercial Year 10/11 Commercial Year 09/10 Commercial Year 10/11 09/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2011 Source: Sugar Midwest Beet: Milling and Baking News,C16-ICE;(IntercontinentalExchange): Sugar Mexican Prices standard and refined SNIIM: 11
13 III. Mexico: Sugar Balance 2010/011 marketing year, advance to January 31, 2011 Concept Total Supply Begining Stocks Production Total Imports Non quota Quota Total Demand Total Exports Sugar Mills Definitive NAFTA Rest of the World IMMEX Temporaly Other Companies Domestic Consumption Sugar Mills Domestic Sales Other Imports Non Quota Quota Ending Stocks 1/ Preliminary data Source: CONADESUCA October January / Total Standard Sugar Refined Sugar 2,861,241 1,836,149 1,025, , , ,824 1,877,821 1,318, ,345 55,321 12,399 42,922 2, ,480 52,753 12,310 40,443 1,719,836 1,108, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,416 1, ,225 19,730 6,519 13, ,931 43,814 57,117 1,377, , ,911 1,321, , ,988 55,321 12,399 42,922 2, ,480 52,753 12,310 40,443 1,141, , ,212 12
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