World apple juice market production and consumption trends

Transcription

1 World apple juice market production and consumption trends Klaus Heitlinger Association of the German fruit juice industry

2 In 2013 I asked you: Who will be the next world soccer champion?

3 Germany is the world soccer champion 2014

4 and we are also world champion in fruit juice consumption with 32 liters per capita

5 The German fruit juice industry in figures The German fruit juice industry in figures fiscal year 2013* Fruit juice producers approx. 375 Employees approx. 7,500 Turnover 3.4 billion Industrial production (fruit juices/fruit nectars/fruit juice drinks without CO 2 ) Per-capita-consumption (fruit juice/fruit nectar/vegetable juice/ vegetable nectar) 3.9 billion litres 33.0 litres Per-capita-consumption Apple spritzer 8.5 litres Fruit processing approx. 900,000 tons Imports 1.33 billion Exports 1.18 billion Source: Verband der deutschen Fruchtsaft-Industrie e. V. (VdF) *provisional values

6 What do Germans drink in one year (2013)? Drinks without alcohol 297 l - Water (with minerals, carbonized) 145 l - Carbonated soft drinks 126 l - Fruit juices & nectars 33 l Alcoholic drinks 138 l - Beer 106 l - Wine 21 l - Champagne 4 l - Spirits 5 l - Fruit wine 1 l House drinks 321 l - Milk 84 l - coffee 156 l - Tea 81 l Total: 762 Liters

7 The German fruit juice industry in figures Development of per-capita-consumption of fruit juices/fruit nectars in Germany Liter Until 1990 only Federal Republic of Germany, since 1991 total Germany Source: Verband der deutschen Fruchtsaft-Industrie e. V. (VdF)

8 NFC in Orange, apple and other juices in Germany fruit juice apple juice orange juice Jan-Dec 13 Jan-Dec 14 VR abs. in % Jan-Dec 13 Jan-Dec 14 VR abs. in % Jan-Dec 13 Jan-Dec 14 12,4 13,4 28,9 31,5 37,3 43,9 3,9 Fresh Juices 6,9 87,6 86,6 71,1 68,5 62,7-8,3 Concentrate Juices 56,1-18,8-4,8 Total VR abs in % -9,2 ConsumerScan fruitjuices Jan-Dec 11/12 Quantity in %

9 Return of the local resp. of the regional Agreements of all households surveyed (%) Trend to regional Trend to internationality Re-Regionalization Gleitendes Mittel zweier Jahre Source: GfK

10 Trend towards freshness/ Premium continues 4,9 VR abs. in Chilled juice 16,2 non-chilled direct juice remaining juices 70,0 25,1-2,7-7,5 Direct juices in total Jan-Jun 13 Jan-Jun 14 Quantity in mio. liter: 156,1 156,1 0,0 Source: GfK ConsumerScan FS jan-jun 13/14 amount in %

11 6 Demografic Viewing Basis buyers in % Continuous loss of buyers! Declining importance of younger consumers, but also of the young families for the fruit beverages market Panel % Year 2006 Year 2007 Year 2008 Year 2009 Year 2010 Year 2011 Year 2012 Young singles/pairs 18,7 20,1 20,1 20,1 19,8 19,1 19,2 18,5 without children Index 92 13,1 9,7 Young families with small school children 15,8 15,9 15,7 15,2 15,4 15,1 14,6 11,0 11,3 10,8 11,1 10,5 10,0 10, Older families with children 36,2 Middle-aged families/ without children 34,5 34,6 34,7 35,4 36,2 36,4 37,1 108 single elderly 22,3 18,6 18,2 18,7 18,6 18,8 19,3 19,2 103 Source: GfK ConsumerScan FHG Jan-Dec buyer in % KRW %

12 Offers Lidl (October 2014)

13 Juice will get cheaper in 2015! What about the sales?

14 Apple processing in Germany tons average 50 % from table apples, 50 % from wild trees Table apples North and South in Germany - Scattered trees mainly in the South Germany has to import 50 % of the apple juice consumed

15 Scattered trees in good condition

16 Broken wild tree due to large harvest and age reasons

17 Wild trees in bad condition

18 How is the harvest on wild trees estimated?

19 Example for own apple production at WeserGold

20 Apple juice production in Germany 600 Apple juice production in Germany in Mio. l Jahreshauptversammlung Kreisobstbauverband Reutlingen

21 Apple prices Germany for processing per 100 kg /100 kg 25 Frei Silopreise für Äpfel in Deutschland in /100 kg

22 Facts on world apple production Apple is the second popular juice with 30% market share 50% of all apples in the world grow in China and 30% of all traded concentrate originates there L pro ha in many areas in the world Competition on acreage: fresh fruit market

23 World fruit juice concentrate streams (Source: Rabobank 2012)

24 World Production AJC ~ mio. tons t t t t t t t t t

25 World Demand AJC ~ mio. tons t t t t t t t t t

26 Surplus and deficit regions t t t t t t t t t

27

28

29

30 Main AJC regions Europe China tons AJC tons AJC Essential AJC regions Can not be substituted by other regions Worldwide alternative sources of tons

31 Alternatives: Turkey und Ukraine 23 AJC processing plants in Ukraine 28 AJC processing plants in Turkey Alternative European source Turkey tons AJC Ukraine tons AJC

32 Alternatives: Chile and Argentina 4 factories in Argentina 4 factories in Chile Processing quantity of tons Chile no export duties Argentina duty to EU dutyfree to USA Alternative crop March to May Argentina tons AJC Chile tons AJC

33 AJC Suppliers for Russia

34 EU-27 : Apple production of the last 12 years GER POL ITA FRA other 10 Mio t 3,9 4,4 1,7 1,7 2,1 2,0 2,4 2,5 3,6 3,5 1,8 1,6 2,1 2,0 2,2 2,3 3,0 1,7 2,2 1,1 3,5 1,5 2,2 3,2 3,4 1,7 2,2 2,6 3,2 1,6 2,2 1,9 3,2 3,2 2,9 1,7 1,6 1,2 2,3 2,0 2,1 2,5 2,8 3,2 3,4 1,5 2,4 3,5 0,8 0,9 0,9 0,9 1,1 1,0 1,1 0,8 1,0 0,9 0,8 1,

35 140 Poland: Apple exports to Russia before Russian ban tons 2010/ / / / Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Source GTA

36 Apple prices worldwide for processsing per 100 kg in 2014 Poland: Grosz ( Rub) China: 10 Euro Germany: apples from farmers 4-8 Euro apples from trade 8-12 Euro Italy: 4-8 Euro

37 Europe: Price for AJC 2,5 EUR/kg 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, Source: AMI

38 Who is the bad guy?

39 Crunch question How many apples do you get for little money?

40 Apple juice campaign 2014 Early start mid August with 3,50 /100 kg Pressure on prices due to high harvest estimates for European table apple harvest and wild apples plus Putin embargo Deliveries remain low due to a/m low prices and fall short of expectations Only Poland and Italy had large processing Weak apple juice concentrate production in China und export of european apple juice concentrate to USA relieve the markets low brix- und acid values reduce possibilities for direct juice, hence also here a slightly small amount Conclusion: Forecasts of crop are exact, however low prices prevented large amounts of processing

41 Moreover: Additional income for managing director of VdF also lesser

42 Forecast 2015 AJC Europe and China are the main producers Sour product predominantly Europe and Ukraine China lost its competitive edge and quantity Europe delivers to United States due to lower cost and a cheep Euro, China loses market share to the fresh market Prices are stable at 1 Euro per kilo and higher while stocks are on a normal level Fresh market for apples is running high

43 Increasing global population in Mio Europe Africa Asia Australia Lat. America North America World Fruit consumption kg/ per capita 10,8 10,2 9,7 Source: UNO RSPS-Juice World Russia Klaus Heitlinger 15th April 2015, Moscow, Russia

44 Spassibo! Do svidania!