The State of the Craft Beer Raw Material Supply Sector; or Beer, Hops and Barley
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1 The State of the Craft Beer Raw Material Supply Sector; or Beer, Hops and Barley Damon Scott Technical Brewing Projects Coordinator Brewers Association
2 Brewers Association Technical Committees Technical Committee Technical subcommittees Draught Beer Quality Quality Safety Sustainability Supply Chain Engineering
3 More breweries than ever before
4 Nov-2011 Jan-2012 Mar-2012 May-2012 Jul-2012 Sep-2012 Nov-2012 Jan-2013 Mar-2013 May-2013 Jul-2013 Sep-2013 Nov-2013 Jan-2014 Mar-2014 May-2014 Jul-2014 Sep-2014 Nov-2014 Jan-2015 Mar-2015 May-2015 Jul-2015 Sep-2015 Nov-2015 Jan-2016 Mar-2016 May-2016 Jul-2016 Sep-2016 Nov-2016 Number of Breweries, Nov 2011-Nov ,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
5 ,000 Breweries and Brewery Permits, ,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
6
7 Growth Rate (%), Comparable Base Annual and Average Growth Rate, (Mid-Year) (MY)
8 US Craft Beer Production Volume (MM US BBL) 25.8 est Production Year
9 3,500,000 Craft - Domestic Barrel Additions, ,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,
10 2,000 Average Barrels Added, Production Breweries 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,
11 The long, long tail of craft beer Less than 4% of all craft breweries make more than 15,000 bbls year 177 Regional Craft Breweries (+ 3) Produce more than 15,000 bbls/year 3151 Microbreweries (+ 158) Produce less than 15,000 bbls/year Does not include brewpubs 1889 Brewpubs (+ 61) More than 25% of production volume sold on-site *as of 2/28/17, parentheses - as of 1/4/17
12 Percent who said Yes Alcohol Consumption Over Time Source: Gallup Poll, 2016.
13 Gallons of Ethanol Per Capita (LDA) 3.0 Per Capita Consumption of Ethanol U.S. from 2000 to 2015 ABV for Beer 4.6%, Wine 11.5% Spirits 38% Beer Wine Spirits
14 Pennsylvania Colorado Oregon Massachusetts Idaho Vermont Washington Montana Nebraska Maine Wisconsin New Jersey New Hampshire Michigan New Mexico Wyoming Connecticut Delaware California Iowa Hawaii Minnesota Illinois Ohio Georgia Arizona District of Columbia Virginia West Virginia New York Indiana Maryland Utah Missouri North Carolina South Dakota North Dakota Rhode Island Alaska Texas Tennessee Nevada Florida Kansas Kentucky Mississippi South Carolina Oklahoma Alabama Louisiana Arkansas 100% Craft Brewer/Beer Share of Beverage Alcohol By State 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Craft Other Beer Other Bev Alc
15 How important is local in purchase decisions? Nielsen Surveys: Sum of very/somewhat important Total Craft Beer Wine Spirits Source: Nielsen Quick Query Omnibus Survey, 12-17, (Base: LDA consumers who drink at least several times per year)
16 Local Craft vs Other Craft Vendors San Diego Supermarkets Local Craft Brewer Dollar Sales passed Non-Local Craft Brewers sales earlier this year Dollar Sales San Diego Local Breweries Non-San Diego Breweries $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $0 Source: IRI InfoScan IRI San Diego, CA FOOD Market Quad Weeks Jan 27, 2013 through July 12, 2015
17 Local Craft vs Other craft Vendors Chicago Supermarkets Local Craft Brewers Dollar Sales passed up Non-Local Craft Brewers earlier this year Dollar Sales Chicago Local Breweries Non-Chicago Craft $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $0 Source: IRI InfoScan IRI Chicago, IL FODO Market Quad Weeks Jan 27, 2013 through July 12, 2015
18 4 Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Wk Local Craft vs Other Craft Vendors Oregon state supermarkets Oregon Craft Brewers are Outselling Non-Oregon Craft Brewers in Dollar Sales Dollar Sales OREGON LOCAL BREWERIES Non-Oregon Breweries $7,000,000 $6,000,000 $5,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,000,000 $0 Source: IRI InfoScan IRI Oregon State - FOOD Quad Weeks Jan 27, 2013 through July 12, 2015
19 SKU Proliferation 1,200 Average Number of SKUs 1, Count of SKUs Source: NBWA, Distributor Productivity Report.
20 Reported Gallons Reported Gallons Reported Gallons Reported Gallons Changing On-Premise Landscape Brew Pubs and Tap Rooms California Florida 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , ,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Texas Iowa 900, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
21 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 TTB Premise Use Data, Premise Use Projected % of Production 1.20% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00%
22 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 US Domestic, Keg and Premise Use Production, Premise Kegs % of Draught 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
23 Variety, quality, and flavor options, are top reasons why drinking more craft Which of the following are reasons you drink more craft beer than a year ago? Looking for more variety Looking for better quality Looking for more flavor options More available in restaurants, bars, brewpubs There are more seasonal offerings 65% 60% 58% 49% 41% It is more available in the stores in which I shop 31% More disposable income Looking for natural ingredients 17% 15% Indicates increase or decrease of at least 4 points from 2016 vs 2015 survey Source: Nielsen's Craft Beer Insights Poll (CIP) conducted June 2016 by Harris Poll (n=1,018 Craft Drinkers; n=555 weekly craft drinkers)
24 At home remains key location for craft beer drinkers, with increases outside the home Which of the following describe when you typically drink craft beer? Please select all that apply. 87% of TOTAL Craft Beers Drinkers AT HOME/AT A FRIEND S HOME 93% of WEEKLY Craft Beers Drinkers GROWING OCCASIONS At an OUTDOOR recreational activity During a craft brewing FESTIVAL/EVENT While visiting a CRAFT BREWERY While eating out at a RESTAURANT While out with my friends at a BAR/CLUB DOWN VS. YEAR AGO Source: Nielsen's Craft Beer Insights Poll (CIP) conducted June 2016 by Harris Poll (n=1,018 Craft Drinkers; n=555 weekly craft drinkers)
25 Annual Hop Survey PPB
26 Aroma Hop Acreage as % Total Acreage
27 Top 10 hops varieties Hop Survey
28 Projected Craft Hop Usage 120,000, ,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0 Total Domestic Hop Lbs Craft Hop Lbs Craft Usage (%)
29 Contract or die!!
30 Era of Dealer Held Inventory
31 Surplus Hop Acres from 2016
32 Surplus Hop Acres expected in 2017
33 Parameter Target Measure purpose Flavor distinctive flavors and aromas new product development FAN <150 ppm micro and flavor stability Diastic Power <150 Lintner "too hot", diminished conversion control Protein Modification S/T 35% to 45% varietal dependant, not malting parameter Protein Content 10.5% Max balance: enzyme/starch Beta Glucan <140 ppm wort viscosity
34 AMBA Malting Barley Breeding Guidelines
35 Putting our money where our mouth is $440,000 for supply chain-related research 13 of 19 are barley related 40% of malting barley consumed by BA-defined craft brewers ~50% total craft beer
36 Not the only ones eating money!! The American Malting Barley Association s (AMBA) EASTERN VARIETY DEVELOPMENT & RESEARCH MIDWEST VARIETY DEVELOPMENT & RESEARCH WESTERN VARIETY DEVELOPMENT & RESEARCH NATIONAL & OTHER RESEARCH
37 Questions? Damon Scott Technical Brewing Projects Coordinator Brewers Association
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