Taiwan Service Center to the World. Glenn Sachko Global Stainless Steel Inc. June 2013
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1 Taiwan Service Center to the World Glenn Sachko Global Stainless Steel Inc. June 2013
2 Outline Global Stainless Global group Overview Export experience Taiwanese Production ( ) Domestic Production Import/Export - Consumption CR/HR - Import/Export Welded Tubes Major Importers Major Exporters China mainland vs Taiwan Market Differences CRC - Costs CRC - Production Inflation - Currency Effects Chinese Exports - ( ) Flat Products Long Products Conclusion Taiwanese Service Centers Mill vs Service Centers Advantages Disadvantages
3 Global Group of Companies Structure G.S.S.I. (TORONTO) Master Distribution And Stockists CLEVELAND METALS (CLEVELAND) End-user secondary sales only GLOBAL STAINLESS PRODUCTS (DETRIOT) Distribution and end-user Slitting Alabama Stainless and Storage (MOBILE) Distribution Storage and Processing Global Tube Company (Cambridge, Ontario) Master Distribution of Ornamental Tube Sales
4 Company Overview Offices and Markets Distributor and processor to end users and other service centers in 20 countries, selling stainless and aluminum products Offices Locations: Toronto/Cambridge Chicago/Mobile Dubai, U.A.E Shanghai, China Sheffield, England Genova, Italy Sydney /Montreal /Cleveland Service Centers: Detroit, Michigan Mobile, Alabama - USA, Twinsburg, Ohio. - Cambridge, Ontario Canada 4 tube mills, 5 slitting machines, 2 cut to length machines, and a Temper Rolling Mill Annual sales combined in Tonnage of 40,000 MT, combined between CME and GSSI. includes Prime and Secondary Flat-rolled Products in 300 and 400 series into 20 countries Main Markets Served: USA, Canada, Australia, England, Italy, Turkey, Taiwan, China, Pakistan India, Holland, Belgium, and the Middle-East
5 GSSI export experience
6 Taiwan Experience
7 Taiwanese Production
8 Domestic Production Company 200 series % 300 series % 400 series % YUSCO (HR&CR) Tang Eng (CR) Tung Mung (CR) Chia Far (CR)
9 Taiwanese STS import/export/consumption ( 000 t) Production Import Material available Export Apparent consumption Production peaked in 2006 Consumption peaked at 2004 but declining Export is expected to rise a little
10 Hot rolled ( 000 t) Export Import Total exp/imp Net difference Exports shrunk 240kt Imports rose dramatically at 460kt Domestic HR production replaced by import, for consumption and rerolling
11 Cold rolled ( 000 t) Export Import Total exp/imp Net difference Exports still rising Materials being imported for re-export Export-oriented service centers keep growing
12 Welded tubes ( 000 t) Export Import Total exp/imp Net difference Very successful in export and it has continuous growth. Export-oriented product
13 Major importers Japan Korea China Total of the big Import % 48.46% 55.93% 62.45% 72.97% 81.90% 89.88% The top 3 importers represent 90% of total imports of Taiwanese materials China mainland has risen imports into Taiwan by 500kt in last 5 years. A big jump last year because of the new import tax policy. (no import tax from Taiwan into China mainland.) Net imports continue to rise
14 Major export destinations EUROPE USA SOUTH AMERICA KOREA CHINA HONG KONG OTHER ASIA TOP 7 MARKETS IMPORT % OF TOTAL 90.83% 86.29% 84.38% 75.13% 72.61% 70.78% China + HK exports are down from 800k to only 200k New markets found: South America/other Asia/Europe Negative export since 2006 Export diversifying away China and spreading worldwide
15 Taiwanese Service Centers
16 Mill Vs Service Center Year 2012 estimation Production Exports [in '000 metric tonnes] YUSCO Tung Mung Mills Tang Eng Chia Far Others Total 1, SC's Ta Chen YC Inox Froch Others Total Grand TOTAL 910
17 Service Center Advantages PROFESSIONAL SERVICE DAY SHIPMENT GOOD PACKAGING VARIETY OF PRODUCT STANDARDIZED QUALITY LEVELS 20 YEAR EXPERIENCE PROCESSED TO SIZE SMALL LOTS AVAILABLE SOME CLAIMABILITY "COMFORT FACTOR" ENABLED NON SERVICE CENTERS TO BECOME SERVICE CENTERS COMMUNICATION VS CHINA MAINLAND
18 Service Center Disadvantages 90 DAY DELIVERY TIME CHANGE 12 HOURS TO NORTH AMERICA REGIONALIZATION- PRICE PARITY CREDIT TERMS PRICE HIGHER THAN CHINA ($50-$100) FIXED PRICE, NO ALLOY SURCHARGE MECHANISM FIRST TO INCREASE PRICES, LAST TO DECREASE PRICES HIGH 430 BA PRICES VARIETY OF PRODUCTS GRADES / WIDTHS (E.G. >60 WIDE, >3MM NOT EASY TO GET)
19 China Mainland vs Taiwan
20 Market Differences DOMESTIC MILL COST STRUCTURE: PRICE DISADVANTAGE USD HIGHER THEN CHINA PRIVATE VS PUBLIC OWNERSHIP COST EFFICIENCY RETURNS BORROWINGS EMPLOYMENT NEEDS VOLUME OF MATERIAL PRODUCED PRICE COMPETITION LACK OF PRODUCTION IN CERTAIN GRADES- WIDTHS MILL SERVICE CENTERS INTEGRATION, MILL & SERVICE, CHINESE GROWTH
21 Cold Rolled Coils (CRC) 304 2B Cost Type
22 Cold Rolled Coils (CRC) 304 2B Production Stage Source:SMR
23 INFLATION CURRENCY EFFECTS USD vs CNY vs TWD Exchange rate 2009 Exchange rate 2013 China USA Taiwan Difference -9.22% 0.00% % Inflation CPI % 2.72% -0.90% % 1.50% 1% % 2.96% 1.40% % 1.74% 2.30% Total 12.74% 8.92% 3.80% Total % change % -8.92% % Notes: CNY and TWD getting stronger over past 4 years against the USD, making it more difficult to export Low Taiwanese inflation helping to keep them competitive
24 China mainland Exports CHINESE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EXPORTS Chinese STS Flat Exports Destinations Y-on-Y Change [ kt ] '11 vs '10 '12 vs '11 USA % 3% Other NAFTA % 25% EUROPE % 0% ASIA , , % -10% Others* % -12% TOTAL , , , % -8% *incl. India Chinese STS Long Exports Destinations Y-on-Y Change in kt '11 vs '10 '12 vs '11 USA % 7% Other NAFTA % 5% EUROPE % -49% ASIA % -7% Others* % -2% TOTAL % -8% *incl. India Source: SMR
25 China Flat Products Export Source:SMR
26 China Long Products Export Source: SMR
27 Conclusion TAIWAN MILLS AT COST DISADVANTAGE VS CHINESE MILLS SHRINKING MARKET TAIWANESE PRODUCERS MOVE TO CHINA MAINLAND- LISCO,NINGBO QI ENHANCE VALUE ADDITIONS TAIWANESE HAVE HAD A HEAD START AT BEING THE SERVICE CENTER TO THE WORLD. THERE WILL BE A BLENDING OF TAIWANESE SERVICE AT MAINLAND PRICES THROUGH A VARIEY OF FORMS A/ TAIWANESE SERVICE CENTERS MOVING TO CHINA B/ CHINESE MAINLAND SERVICE CENTERS EMPLOYING TAIWANESE MANAGEMENT C/NARROWING OF THE QUALITY AND SERVICE GAP ADD FINANCING OPTIONS TO ENHANCE COMPETITIVENESS TAIWANESE INFLATION HAS HELPED KEEP THEM COMPETITIVE
28 Conclusion CHINA MAINLAND MILL COST ADVANTAGE IS A THREAT TO THE TAIWANESE MODEL CHINA MAINLAND OVERCAPACITY WILL FORCE CHINESE MILLS TO SUPPORT EXPORTS DIRECTLY OR THROUGH SERVICE CENTERS WHILE MAINLAND SERVICE CENTERS HAVE RAISED THEIR STANDARDS THERE IS STILL A SERVICE GAP COMPARED TO TAIWANESE CHINA MAINLAND TO IMPROVE SERVICE CENTER EXPORT CAPABILITIES -MATERIAL QUALITY -SERVICE LEVELS -CLAIMABILITY -PACKAGING -STANDARDIZATION -SMALL VARIED LOTS -EXAMPLES-DAMING,CHAINCHON,BAOCHANG TAIWANESE SERVICE CENTERS RELOCTATING TO CHINA TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF LOWER COST MATERIAL
29 Conclusion REGIONAL COST PARITY MAY LOWER INTERCONTINENTAL TRADE INFLATION AND CURRENCY STRENGTHENING IS ERODING ASIAN COST PRODUCTION ADVANTAGES NEW U.S. MILL EXPANSION (E.G. ALLEGHENY AND OUTOKUMPU) WILL BE LOW COST PROVIDERS WITH ABUNDANT DOMESTIC SCRAP AND MAY AFFECT WORLD STAINLESS TRADE FLOWS
30 THANK YOU
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