MBR s OCTG and Linepipe Market Overview MBR s Steel & and Ferro-silicon Outlook Market Analysis & Outlook

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1 MBR s OCTG and Linepipe ket Overview MBR s Steel & and Ferro-silicon Outlook ket Analysis & Outlook MB s 3th International Ferro-alloys Conference AMM Tube and Pipe Conference Barcelona - 11 November 2 Houston, TX ch 3-4, 2 Amy Bennett Principal Consultant Kim Leppold Senior Metals Analyst Tube & Pipe Group

2 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Crude steel production highlights China continues to dominate global steel output Chinese steel output growth expected to slow to just 2.2% in 2 Chinese growth slowing, but China still accounts for nearly 5% of global output Global steel output poised to rise around % this year 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Global steel production (m tonnes) Rest of World (LHS) China (LHS) China % of total (RHS) f 215f 6% 55% 5% 45% 4% 35% 3%

3 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Crude steel production highlights Asia dominating global steel production China accounts for about 7% of Asian output Global crude steel production growth forecast at around 2-3% in 215 Chinese steel output poised to rise around 1-2% in 215 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Global steel production (m tonnes) Asia & Oceania Africa & Middle East South America North America Eastern Europe & CIS Western Europe f 215f

4 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Crude steel production highlights Asian growth has remained positive, supporting global growth Growth in Europe and North America has been volatile Recovery in European and North American steel output in 2 is forecast to continue into 215 We are forecasting positive growth in all regions next year 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% Global steel output growth (% change year-on-year) Western Europe North America Asia & Oceania Eastern Europe & CIS Africa & Middle East Total f 215f

5 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Crude steel production highlights Quarterly crude steel production: Emerging markets (% change y-o-y) Growth in emerging markets, especially Latin America and the CIS slowing in 2 Chinese growth offsetting other declines Quarterly crude steel production: Mature markets (% change y-o-y) Growth in mature markets outpacing emerging markets in 2 After a strong start to 2, growth has slowed 2% 15% Latin America CIS China Total World 2% 15% USA Japan Europe Total World 1% 1% 5% 5% % % 5% 5% 1% Q3 11 Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3 11 1% Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q

6 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Crude steel production highlights Ferro-silicon predominantly consumed in integrated, blast furnace steelmaking BOF share of total output rising Declining iron ore prices making integrated steel output more cost effective vs. scrapbased EAF steelmaking EAF Crude steel production by process (m tonnes) BOF

7 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Stainless steel production highlights Global stainless output reached another new record high in H1 2 Stainless industry facing over-supply and over-capacity Output in 2 poised to rise over 7% y-o-y to over 4m tonnes Unit consumption of FeSi in stainless production around 15-2 kg/tonne Quarterly global stainless steel production (m tonnes) f

8 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Ferro-silicon demand highlights Ferro-silicon demand linked to production of steel flat products EU ferro-silicon prices slipped in Q3 2 in response to seasonal slowdown in flat products production EU flat products output up 4.8% yearon-year in the first eight months of 2 (' tonnes) 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, Aug European ferro-silicon prices vs. EU steel flat products production Oct Dec Feb Flats Production (LHS) FeSi Price (RHS) Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, ($/tonne)

9 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Ferro-silicon demand highlights EU apparent consumption of ferro-silicon rising in 2 EU27 apparent consumption of ferrosilicon gained 2-3% in 2, compared to 1.3% decline in regional crude steel output EU27 apparent consumption of ferrosilicon in 2 poised to rise closer to 1%, well above steel output growth of around 3% this year Indicates inventory building in the EU European imports of 75% ferro-silicon ( tonnes) Germany Italy France UK

10 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Ferro-silicon demand highlights Average US steel mill utilisation rates have stagnated around 75% US ferro-silicon prices normally closely track average steel mill utilisation rates Data masks stronger performance for flat product mills, with operating rates closer to 9% Have seen stronger performance in ferrosilicon relative to steel since mid-2 due to anti-dumping duty investigation % Oct 11 US steel mill capacity utilisation rates vs. domestic ferro-silicon prices Feb Jun Utilisation [LHS] Oct Feb Jun Oct FeSi [RHS] Feb Jun Oct $/lb

11 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 World Ferro-silicon Production Distribution - 2 Other 6% North America 4% Latin America 4% Europe 1% CIS 1% China 66% Chinese ferro-silicon output dominates global production and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future

12 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Chinese ferro-silicon production ( tonnes) Dec 11 Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Chinese ferro-silicon output is running approximately 7% lower year-onyear through the first eight months of 2 Source: MBR

13 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Chinese ferro-silicon production growth vs. crude steel output growth (% change y-on-y) 6.% 5.% 4.% FeSi production Crude steel production 3.% 2.% 1.%.% 1.% 2.% 3.% 4.% After outpacing growth in crude steel production last year, Chinese ferrosilicon output is now running far below steel output growth Source: MBR

14 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Ferro-silicon supply highlights Ferro-silicon supply from Brazil has fallen sharply in 2 Brazilian exports of ferrosilicon are forecast to fall below 6, tonnes on a contained silicon basis this year Exports poised to fall below the previous lows recorded in 28 Power constraints are likely to extend into 215, dampening Brazilian production and exports next year Brazil ferro-silicon exports ( tonnes Si content)

15 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Brazilian energy prices (R$/MWh) Brazil facing worst drought in over 8 years, with the country sourcing 75% of its electricity from hydroelectric plants

16 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Ferro-silicon supply highlights Ferro-silicon supply from Ukraine poised to decline Ukrainian ferro-silicon exports jumped 36% y-o-y in H1 2 to 46,784 tonnes Privat s Stakhanov plant closed in early August, some production transferred to Zaporozhye works Expect to see sharp decline in Ukrainian ferrosilicon exports in H2 2 and into 215 Ukraine ferro-silicon exports (tonnes)

17 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Ferro-silicon supply highlights Ferro-silicon supply from Macedonia may decline if Jugohrom forced to close for environmental reasons European countries, including Turkey, imported approximately 44, tonnes of FeSi from Macedonia in 2 If output is not disrupted, European imports from Macedonia on target to rise to around 63, tonnes in 2 Gains this year due to significant increase in Macedonian shipments to Italy, reached 22,391 tonnes in H1 2 versus 25,755 tonnes in full-year 2 European FeSi imports from Macedonia (tonnes) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2 2 ytd 2f Turkey Spain Slovakia Romania Poland Netherlands Hungary Germany France Czech Republic Belgium Italy

18 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Ferro-silicon supply highlights EU ferro-silicon import supply facing potential reduction Shipments from Brazil are down, but this is a relatively small portion of total EU imports Potential disruptions to shipments from Poland, Macedonia, and Ukraine will have far more significant impact If supply is disrupted from these sources, will equate to a loss of 6,- 7, tonnes of ferrosilicon supply in the EU in 2 versus 2 levels 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, EU imports from countries with actual or potential supply disruptions (tonnes) Brazil Poland Ukraine Macedonia 2 2 ytd 2f (no disruption) 2f (with disruption)

19 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Ferro-silicon supply highlights US ferro-silicon imports rising in 2 US government has dismissed the anti-dumping case against imports of ferro-silicon from both Russia and Venezuela China has boosted shipments to the USA sharply this year as imports from both Russia and Venezuela declined, with US imports from China almost doubling thus far in 2 Russian share of total US imports fell to 45% in the first 8 months of 2, down from 53% in the same period last year, but Russia remained the largest supplier to the USA despite the trade case US ferro-silicon imports ( tonnes) Q Q1 Total Russia Q3 Q1 Q3 China Venezuela Q1 Q3 e

20 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Ferro-silicon supply highlights Russian ferro-silicon exports recovering in 2 after 1% decline last year Russian ferro-silicon producers have shown resilience this year despite both the conflict in the Ukraine and the threat of anti-dumping duties in the USA Russian ferro-silicon exports rose % y-o-y in the first half of 2 Russian exports to the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea, and India all running well ahead of year-ago levels Russian ferro-silicon exports ( tonnes) Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1

21 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Ferro-silicon supply highlights Norwegian ferro-silicon exports rising in 2 Norwegian ferro-silicon exports up % y-o-y in the first eight months of 2 Norwegian exports poised to return to levels this year of around 215, tonnes Norwegian exports to the Netherlands, Germany, UK, and Italy all running well ahead of year-ago levels Norwegian 75% ferro-silicon exports ( tonnes) e

22 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Chinese ferro-silicon exports vs. prices 8 7 Exports (LHS) Prices (RHS) 1,9 1,8 ' tonnes ,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 $/tonne 1 1, , Official export figures indicate a 35% y-on-y rise in Chinese ferro-silicon exports in the first nine months of 2, but we believe the increase is even greater due to significant tonnages of illegal exports

23 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Chinese reported exports vs. actual exports (tonnes) 2 Actual exports from China were over 32, tonnes higher than reported Chinese exports in 2 The bulk of the discrepancy evident in shipments to Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, EU Taiwan Japan USA S.Korea 2e Despite news of increased border controls on the Chinese/Vietnam border, smuggling appears to be rising in 2 Actual exports poised to rise over 33, tonnes above reported levels this year 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, EU Taiwan Japan USA S.Korea Reported Actual Reported Actual

24 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Trade discrepancies China vs. Japan 4, 35, China exports to Japan Japan imports from China 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Jan May Jul Nov Jan May Jul Nov Jan May Jul Japanese import figures indicate imports of over 267, tonnes of Chinese ferro-silicon in 2, versus 16, tonnes reported in Chinese export statistics, a discrepancy of over 17, tonnes. Preliminary data indicate a similar discrepancy for 2.

25 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Trade discrepancies China vs. S.Korea 25, China exports to S.Korea S.Korea imports from China 2, 15, 1, 5, Jan May Jul Nov Jan May Jul Nov Jan May Jul South Korean import figures were 118, tonnes higher than official Chinese exports to South Korea. In the first eight months of 2, South Korean imports of Chinese ferro-silicon were 79, tonnes higher than reported Chinese exports to the nation.

26 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Trade discrepancies China vs. Taiwan 1 China exports to Taiwan Taiwan imports from China Jan May Jul Nov Jan May Jul Nov Jan May Jul Taiwanese imports of ferro-silicon from China were 79, tonnes higher than official exports in 2. In the first seven months of 2, Taiwanese imports were 44, tonnes higher than official exports.

27 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Trade discrepancies China vs. USA US Imports from China China exports to USA 1 tonnes Jan May Jul Nov Jan May Jul Nov Jan May Jul We have seen sharply higher exports of Chinese material to the USA this year in light of AD investigations in the USA against imports from Russia and Venezuela. Actual US imports from China in 2 were 8, tonnes above reported figures, with imports running 1, tonnes above reported figures in the first seven months of 2.

28 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Ferro-silicon prices & forecasts Ferro-silicon prices trending higher in 2 Ferro-silicon prices have been largely rangebound since 2, but posting gains this year relative to 2 Flat price performance reflects upside from supply concerns against downside from disappointing demand from steel industry 2,25 2, 1,75 1,5 1,25 1, 75 Ferro-silicon quarterly price comparison ($/tonne) 9 Q1 1 1 Q3 1 1 Q Q Q1 USA Europe China Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3

29 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Ferro-silicon prices & forecasts Ferro-silicon prices trending higher in 2 vs 2 Ferro-silicon prices to maintain upward momentum in 2 Ferro-silicon price performance in 215 forecast to surpass 2 and 2, but prices will not return to 211 heights next year European ferro-silicon 75% spot market prices annual comparison ($/tonne) Jan Feb Apr May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec

30 MB 3 th International Ferro-alloys Conference Barcelona 11 November 2 Ferro-silicon prices & forecasts Stability in ferro-silicon prices forecast for 215 US prices will stabilise with threat of antidumping duties eliminated, but may see upward support from possible Globe furnace conversions 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 Ferro-silicon quarterly price forecast ($/tonne) USA Europe Forecast EU prices will improve in H1 215 on supply concerns, narrowing the margin between US and EU prices 1,3 1,2 11 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q Q

31 The latest trade statistics and analysis for both bulk and specialty alloys markets. A monthly report on the Ferro-alloys market which includes: Analysis of ferro-alloys market prices, developments and crude steel forecast. Global stainless steel and crude steel production data. Extensive price forecasts, supply-demand data by ferro-alloys and by region, downloadable into Excel. ket conditions for regional ferro-alloy markets. Analysis of the latest market indicators and trade trends for bulk and speciality alloys. Contact us on +44 () or if you would like a free sample of this monthly market tracker. 'I regularly use MBR's Ferro-alloys Monthly's pricing data and analysis as a reference in our price negotiations and strategy. I highly recommend this report' - Jose Roberto Ferreira da Silva, MAHLE Metal Leve S.A., Corporate Purchasing Sign up for your free sample today:

32 For information regarding this presentation contact Amy Bennett Principal Consultant at Metal Bulletin Research

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