Commodity Markets Review

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1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized October 9, 2008 Commodity Markets Review Non-energy commodity prices fell 5.2 percent in September, continuing the plunge of the past two months due to weakening global demand and appreciation of the dollar up 4.0 percent against the euro in September. Price declines accelerated sharply in early October as concerns of global demand intensified. Only potassium chloride fertilizer prices rose significantly last month, up 10.2 percent, on a strike in Canada. Crude oil prices fell 13.0 percent in September, averaging $99.7/bbl, and fell below $83/bbl in early October. The slump was due to sharply declining demand in the U.S. and Europe, and expectations of slowing demand in developing countries as the global economy slows. Non-OPEC supplies are also set to jump in the fourth quarter and in 2009 which should result in higher stocks. Inventories remain relatively low due to a number of disruptions from the Caspian, Nigeria and U.S. Gulf of Mexico. OPEC meets December 17 th but it is still not known at what level the Organization may step in to support prices. Natural gas prices in the U.S. fell 6.7 percent in September, despite significant disruptions in the wake of hurricanes Gustav and Ike, due to weak demand, rising inventories, and strong growth in shale-gas production. Coal prices fell 5.3 percent due to weakening demand and significant easing of port congestion and vessel queues in Australia Major Price Indices Indices of Nominal US$ Prices (2000=100) Metals and Minerals Energy Agriculture 100 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 DECPG, The World Bank Agriculture prices dropped 5.1 percent in September the third consecutive monthly decline on weakening demand, lower crude oil prices, and improved supply prospects. The largest declines were in fats and oils which plunged 9.4 percent, led by a 14 percent drop in palm oil prices due to slowing import demand and a reduction in Indonesia s export tax which had fueled the recent spike. Wheat prices fell 10 percent due to a projected 10 percent increase in global production. The soybean complex fell 7-9 percent on expectations of slowing demand in China and lower demand for biodiesel. Sugar prices fell 7 percent on expected low ethanol demand and sharp rise in global supplies. Metals and minerals prices fell 5.8 percent in September, and continued their sharp declines in early October on concerns about global demand. Silver prices dropped 16 percent, versus only 1 percent for gold, as silver demand is more sensitive to slowing economic growth. Most base metal prices have plunged one-third or more since early July, as metals prices are most linked to industrial output. Some prices have been falling since last year, with nickel prices down three-quarters from its peak, and have fallen into the cost curve forcing output cuts. Currencies of commodity producers, e.g., Australia and Brazil, have also plunged recently, which partly offsets the price effect and helps sustain profitability and output. Agriculture Prices - Sub-Indices Indices of Nominal US$ Prices (2000=100) 125 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Prepared in the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) by Shane Streifel, Donald Mitchell, John Baffes and Betty Dow. Katherine Rollins is task assistant. This report is available on Food Beverages Raw Materials 1

2 Major Movers September 1 Potassium chloride prices surged 10.2 percent unlike other fertilizer prices due to a labor strike in Canada, the world s largest exporter. Coffee robusta prices decreased 6.4 percent on early indications of record crops in Vietnam and Brazil during the season. Natural gas (U.S.) prices fell 6.7 percent on weakening demand, rising inventories, and higher domestic production of shale gas. Coconut oil and palmkernel oil (close substitutes) prices dropped 7.5 percent and 7.3 percent, respectively, due to larger than expected palmkernel oil production with stocks reaching historical highs. Sugar prices fell 7.4 percent as lower crude oil prices are expected to reduce demand for ethanol. Global supplies of sugar are expected to rise sharply led by a 15 percent increase in Brazilian sugar cane production. Tin prices decreased 8.3 percent on weakening demand although stocks have remained relatively low on continued supply constraints. Urea and DAP prices fell 8.3 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively, as demand weakened in response to lower grain prices, and export competition intensified as companies lower price expectations. Copper prices fell 8.4 percent on weak global demand and higher inventories, with prices plunging sharply in early October on increasing concerns about global growth. Soybeans, meal and oil prices fell 8.6 percent, 6.9 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively, as demand from China the largest importer is expected to weaken while global production is projected to rise from increased plantings. Demand for soybean oil for biodiesel is also expected to decline as crude oil prices fall. Aluminum prices dropped 8.6 percent on weakening demand, sharply rising stocks, and continued growth in Chinese aluminum production and exports. Wheat prices declined 10.6 percent as global production is projected to increase by 10 percent and ending-stocks are expected to rise by 18 percent. Crude oil prices fell 13.0 percent on accelerating demand reductions in the OECD and imminent jump in non-opec supplies that will extend over the next year. Palm oil prices dropped 14.1 percent (down more than one-third since June) due to weakening demand and a reduction in the palm oil export tax by Indonesia (which partly fueled the recent price hike). Silver prices plunged 16.4 percent on the strengthening dollar and expectations of reduced industrial demand for the metal. Potassium chloride Logs, Malaysia Sorghum Natural gas, Europe Sawnwood Malaysia Zinc Phosphate rock Maize Rice, Thai, 5% Gold Groundnut oil Coffee, arabica Rubber, Singapore Tea, avg 3 auctions Lead Cocoa Beef TSP Coal, Australia Cotton, A Index Nickel Coffee, robusta DAP Natural gas, US Soybean meal Soybean oil Palmkernel oil Sugar, world Coconut oil Tin Urea, bulk Copper Soybeans Aluminum Wheat, US, HRW Crude oil, average spot Palm oil Silver Percent Changes in Price, Nominal US $ Sep '08/Aug '08 Sep'08/Sep ' Percent change of average September 2008 prices compared to average August prices in nominal U.S. dollars (graph also includes 12-month changes in grey). 2

3 COMMODITY PRICE DATA Annual averages Quarterly averages Monthly averages Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Sep Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Jul Aug Sep Commodity Unit Energy Coal, Australia a/ $/mt Crude oil, avg, spot a/ $/bbl Crude oil, Brent a/ $/bbl Crude oil, Dubai a/ $/bbl Crude oil, West Texas Int. a/ $/bbl Natural gas Index a/ 2000= Natural gas, Europe a/ $/mmbtu Natural gas, US a/ $/mmbtu Natural gas LNG, Japan a/ $/mmbtu Non Energy Commodities Agriculture Beverages Cocoa b/ c/kg Coffee, Arabica b/ c/kg Coffee, robusta b/ c/kg Tea, auctions (3), average b/ c/kg Tea, Colombo auctions b/ c/kg Tea, Kolkata auctions b/ c/kg Tea, Mombasa auctions b/ c/kg Food Fats and Oils Coconut oil b/ $/mt , ,098 1,379 1,499 1,244 1,436 1,193 1,104 Copra $/mt , Groundnut oil b/ $/mt 970 1,352 2,251 1,397 1,651 2,007 2,328 2,417 2,536 2,372 2,341 Palm oil b/ $/mt , ,156 1, , Palmkernel oil $/mt , ,084 1,375 1,420 1,113 1,272 1, Soybean meal b/ $/mt Soybean oil b/ $/mt , ,105 1,384 1,466 1,353 1,511 1,322 1,227 Soybeans b/ $/mt Grains Barley b/ $/mt Maize b/ $/mt Rice, Thailand, 5% b/ $/mt Rice, Thailand, 25% $/mt n.a n.a. n.a Rice, Thailand, 35% $/mt n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. * Rice,Thai, A1.Special / Super $/mt Sorghum $/mt Wheat, Canada $/mt Wheat, US, HRW b/ $/mt Wheat US SRW $/mt Other Food Bananas EU $/mt 897 1,037 1, ,068 1,421 1,263 1,123 1,103 1,158 1,107 Bananas US b/ $/mt Fishmeal $/mt 1,166 1,177 1,170 1,123 1,075 1,126 1,185 1,200 1,232 1,188 1,180 Meat, beef b/ c/kg Meat, chicken b/ c/kg Meat, sheep c/kg Oranges b/ $/mt ,196 1, ,103 1,322 1,163 1,432 1, Shrimp, Mexico b/ c/kg 1,024 1,010 1,087 1,003 1,045 1,103 1,109 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1,014 Sugar EU domestic b/ c/kg Sugar US domestic b/ c/kg Sugar, world b/ c/kg Raw Materials Timber Logs, Cameroon $/cum Logs, Malaysia b/ $/cum Plywood c/sheets Sawnwood, Cameroon $/cum , ,036 1, , Sawnwood, Malaysia b/ $/cum Woodpulp $/mt Other Raw Materials Cotton A Index b/ c/kg Cotton Memphis c/kg Rubber, US c/kg Rubber, Singapore b/ c/kg continued on next page a/ Included in the energy index (2000=100) b/ Included in the non-energy index (2000=100) c/ Steel not included in the non-energy index $ = US dollar = US cent bbl = barrel cum = cubic meter dmtu = Dry Metric Ton Unit kg = kilogram mmbtu = million British thermal units mt = metric ton toz = troy oz n.a. = not available n.q. = no quotation 3

4 COMMODITY PRICE DATA Annual averages Quarterly averages Monthly averages Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Sep Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Jul Aug Sep Fertilizers DAP b/ $/mt , ,192 1,154 1,185 1,177 1,099 Phosphate rock b/ $/mt Potassium chloride b/ $/mt TSP b/ $/mt ,036 1,108 1,113 1,132 1,079 Urea, E. Europe, bulk b/ $/mt Metals and Minerals Aluminum b/ $/mt 2,570 2,638 2,823 2,546 2,444 2,743 2,940 2,787 3,071 2,764 2,526 Copper b/ $/mt 6,722 7,118 7,973 7,712 7,188 7,796 8,443 7,680 8,414 7,635 6,991 Gold $/toz Iron ore b/ c/dmtu Lead b/ c/kg Nickel b/ $/mt 24,254 37,230 24,533 30,205 29,219 28,957 25,682 18,961 20,160 18,928 17,795 Silver c/toz 1,157 1,341 1,660 1,273 1,424 1,765 1,720 1,495 1,806 1,458 1,219 * * Steel products index, Japanc/ 2000= Steel cr coilsheet, Japan, Reinc/ $/mt Steel hr coilsheet, Japan, Reinc/ $/mt Steel, rebar, Japan, Reinstatedc/ $/mt Steel wire rod, Japan, Reinstatc/ $/mt Tin b/ c/kg 878 1,454 2,032 1,498 1,634 1,778 2,265 2,051 2,314 2,003 1,837 Zinc b/ c/kg NEW World Bank commodity price indices for low and middle income countries( 2000 =100) Energy Non Energy Commodities Agriculture Beverages Food Fats and Oils Grains Other Food Raw Materials Timber Other Raw Materials Fertilizers Metals and Minerals a/ Included in the energy index (2000=100) b/ Included in the non-energy index (2000=100) c/ Steel not included in the non-energy index $ = US dollar = US cent bbl = barrel cum = cubic meter dmtu = Dry Metric Ton Unit kg = kilogram mmbtu = million British thermal units mt = metric ton toz = troy oz n.a. = not available n.q. = no quotation 4

5 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars,

6 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, cont d 6

7 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, cont d 7

8 8

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