November 8, 2017 Conference. Creating. Connections And Communities
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1 November 8, 2017 Conference Creating Connections And Communities
2 UNDERSTANDING THE CHANGING CONSUMER
3 In 2017, Canadians will spend $155 Billion on food NPD Eating Patterns in Canada
4 IF YOU REMEMBER NOTHING ELSE. 287 Annual Per Capita Paid Food Visits to Grocery and Restaurants NPD Eating Patterns in Canada 2017
5 THE FRAGMENTED PATH TO PURCHASE DEMAND PRE-STORE DIGITAL IN-STORE PURCHASE A shopper journey with many opportunities to intersect and change their direction
6 ACCESSING FOOD EVERYWHERE The food distribution channel is changing at a fast pace. 72,000 Restaurants Website Online Ordering Tablet/Mobile Chef In home Services Call Center Grocery HMR Order from anywhere, Eat anywhere Alexia and Goggle Home Subscription Meal Services Virtual Restaurants Meal Kits Grocery Stores Pick Up Food Trucks Farm to Consumers
7 TRENDS IMPACTING PATH TO PURCHASE CONNECT REACH ENGAGE
8 CONNECT Online and Digital is creating new and exciting touch points along the shopper journey
9 THE DIGITAL FUTURE IS HERE AND NOW Online shopping for CPG is forecasted to almost triple by % 5.3% CPG online sales are projected to grow +20% year over year 7:1 Margin by which retail e-commerce sales growth will outpace brick & mortar sales growth by 2020 Source: Nielsen, Cross Outlet Facts, 52 weeks ending July 1, 2017 VAPs E-Commerce Share
10 CLICKS VS BRICKS: ONLINE TRIPS ARE UP WHILE VISITS TO PHYSICAL STORES ARE IN DECLINE TOTL FMCG TRIPS BRICKS & MORTAR VS. 2,242.7 Million -2% E-COMMERCE 2,270.7 Million -2% 28.0 Million +11% Source: Nielsen Homescan Channel Watch 52 weeks ending July 1, 2017
11 REACH More consumers are shifting their purchase destinations to nontraditional retailers
12 CONSUMER SAVING STRATEGIES ARE SHAPING RETAIL FORMAT TRENDS CANADA TOP SAVING STRATEGIES % TRYING TO SPEND LESS ON FMCG 71% 80% 68% 57% 55% 52% 50% Stock-up Buy on Sale Coupons Switch Stores Store Brands Large Sizes Source: Homescan Panel View Survey 2017
13 OVER THE PAST 5 YEARS, $4.1 BILLION HAS SHIFTED TO ONLINE, DOLLAR STORE AND WAREHOUSE CLUBS $ Share of Market Online Dollar Stores 12.1% 1.2% 1.1% 15.6% 2.0% 1.5% THE OPPORTUNITY +$ % Billion Increase $ growth since 2013 Warehouse Clubs 9.7% 12.1% 248 million trips in Total sales $ $12.5B $16.6B +17% trip increase since 2013 Source: Nielsen, Cross Outlet Facts, 52 weeks ending July 1, 2017 VAPs adjusted
14 ENGAGE Health and Wellness is influencing and changing purchase decisions
15 FACTORS HEIGHTENING FOCUS ON CLEAN EATING CANADA GRAYING CHRONICALLY AILING FOOD AS MEDICINE EVOLVING HEALTH & WELLNESS
16 65% of consumers eating healthy is a vital part of their lives BUT 64% Agree that it is challenging to eat right Source: Nielsen
17 CONSUMERS ARE PUTTING THEIR MONEY WHERE THEIR MOUTH IS DRIVEN BY: 54% O F C A N A D I A N S S AY T H E Y R E W I L L I N G T O PAY M O R E F O R F O O D S A N D D R I N K S T H AT D O N T C O N TA I N U N D E S I R A B L E I N G R E D I E N T S. 47% 28% Enlighten Eating % who follow a specific diet which limits specific foods and ingredients Sensitive Stomachs % of households with a food allergy or intolerance Source: Nielsen Global Health and Ingredient Sentiment Survey Q Canadian respondents
18 PLANT BASED MILKS GAINING MOMENTUM Milk $2.5 Billion $ % Chg +0% L % Chg -2% Fat Content $ Share L % Chg 2% 46.3% +0 1% 27.6% -7 Homogenized 15.7% +6 Skim 7.5% -11 What s trending in Dairy Case Beverages? Sales % Dollars Chg Almond Milk $174M +4 Coconut Milk $18M +20 Cashew Milk $14M +46 Source: Nielsen MarkeTrack; National All Channels: 52 weeks to September 16, 2017
19 CONSUMERS ARE USING FOOD AS MEDICINE The power of Superfoods Superfoods used for Health Condition 69% Would buy foods that include superfood ingredients To Treat % of users To Prevent 64% Superfoods provide a natural way to treat and prevent aliments 28% Maca Powder 15% Turmeric 14% Chia Seeds 55% Coconut Oil 54% Hemp Seeds 50% Black Garlic 60% Would like to learn about ways to include superfoods in their diet 14% Coconut Oil 13% Acai Berries 50% Turmeric 49% Chia Seeds Source: Nielsen Global Survey Q Canada respondents
20 OPPORTUNITIES ALONG THE PATH TO PURCHASE CONNECT REACH ENGAGE Online and Digital is creating new and exciting touch points along the shopper journey More consumers are shifting their purchase destinations to nontraditional retailers Health and Wellness is changing and influencing instore purchase decisions
21 Coffee In Canada 21
22 Past-day day coffee penetration stable, indicating a healthy market overall. 100 Percent Drinking Any Coffee Past-day Telephone data collection Online data collection '98 '99 '01 '03 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 14 '15 '16 '17 Source: Coffee Association of Canada annual beverage tracking.
23 In-home coffee preparation declines in Percent Drinking Past Day By Place Of Preparation In Home (NET) Out Of Home (NET) Source: Coffee Association of Canada annual beverage tracking.
24 Foodservice coffee volume is stable 35% Share of Foodservice Occasions that include a coffee. 2.6 Billion coffee servings Source: The NPD Group / CREST YE August 2016 NPD Group/CREST Total Foodservice YE Sep 2017
25 Taste, convenience, unique beverages and the quality of the experience key to choosing to drink more coffee out of home. % Major Reason For Drinking More In Restaurants Or Cafes Tastes great To give myself a treat Convenient Can make drinks that I can't make at home To give myself a break, me-time Energy boost Makes me feel good A chance to relax Helps me to focus Warms me up Makes my commute more enjoyable A chance to socialize A ritual in my day A place to work/have meetings Had a lifestyle change Satisfies my thirst I want coffee as part of a meal or with food A cool/trendy thing to do Helps to pass the time Free Wi-Fi Affordable Healthy Source: Coffee Association of Canada annual beverage tracking.
26 Taste, convenience, affordability, ritual and the quality of the experience key to choosing to drink more coffee in home. % Major Reason For Drinking More At Home Tastes great A ritual in my day Convenient Affordable A chance to relax Energy boost Makes me feel good Had a lifestyle change (started working, started To give myself a break, me-time Warms me up Helps me to focus To give myself a treat I make coffee at home to take with me while Something to drink while using the computer To offer hospitality to my guests I want coffee as part of a meal or with food Satisfies my thirst Helps to pass the time Something to drink while watching TV I've learned to make more kinds of coffee drinks A chance to socialize I work/have meetings from home Healthy A cool/trendy thing to do Source: Coffee Association of Canada annual beverage tracking.
27 Out Of Home: Breakfast dominates coffee consumption. After breakfast, between meal snacking occasions are key. 78 Percent Drinking Coffee By Daypart Among Past Day Drinkers Breakfast Morning Lunch Afternoon Dinner Evening Source: Coffee Association of Canada annual beverage tracking.
28 What we are drinking
29 Shifts are occurring in terms of what coffee beverages consumers are choosing. Percent Drinking Past-day Traditional coffee flat Espresso-based beverages growing Emergence of new formats 7 8 Total Coffee Traditional Coffee Espresso-based Beverages (EBB)* Non-Espresso-Based Beverages (N-EBB)** Source: Coffee Association of Canada annual beverage tracking.
30 EBB beverage growth driven by espresso, latte and flat white. Percent Drinking Past-day Espressobased Beverages (EBB) Cafe Mocha Cappuccino Espresso Latte Macchiato Caffe Americano Flat White Non- Espresso- Based Beverages (N-EBB) Frozen Blended Coffee Cold brew coffee Nitro coffee Source: Coffee Association of Canada annual beverage tracking.
31 Out Of Home Specialty coffee is growing Share of Specialty Coffee NPD Group/CREST Total Foodservice YE Sep 2017
32 Consumers are reducing their use of cream in coffee Percent Adding To Coffee Half and half use consistently declining Milk alternatives niche but growing Half and Half/Milk/Creamer (NET) Half and half Reduced fat milk Whole milk Fat free/skim milk Milk alternatives (NET) Liquid Creamer Powdered creamer Source: Coffee Association of Canada annual beverage tracking.
33 Sweetening in general and white sugar specifically declining Percent Adding To Coffee White sugar declining Raw sugar niche but growing Sweetening (NET) Sugar/Raw Sugar (NET) White Sugar Artificial sweetener Stevia Raw sugar Honey Other natural sweetener Source: Coffee Association of Canada annual beverage tracking.
34 Out Of Home Specialty beverages are sustaining the coffee category Coffee Share by Type 10% Cold Specialty +40M servings (since 2013) 14% Hot Specialty +10M servings (since 2013) Source: The NPD Group / CREST YE August 2016 NPD Group/CREST Total Foodservice YE Sep 2017
35 Coffee Preparation and Consumption
36 Shifts are also occurring in how coffee is prepared, with drip eroding and single-cup plateauing. Drip erodes Single-cup plateaus Percent Using Coffee Preparation Method New brewer type which might be confused with single-cup Instant erodes Drip Single-cup Bean-to-cup Instant Espresso machine RTD Cold brewing Source: Coffee Association of Canada annual beverage tracking.
37 SINGLE SERVE PENETRATION FLAT Single Serve Penetration Source: Nielsen Homescan National All Channels L52 Weeks PE Sept 30, Conference INNOVATION: Design for the Future
38 ON DEMAND STILL REPRESENTS OVER 43% OF THE COFFEE CATEGORY SALES R&G 46% (+1) Inst 11% (+0) On Demand 43% (-1) R&G Instant On Demand Inflation Item Chg* different on demand items sold in stores on average* $1.46 billion dollars in total coffee retail sales Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, Nat all channels, L52 weeks ending Sept 30, 2017 vs YA *Nielsen MarketTrack, Nat GDM,L52 weeks ending Sept 30, 2017
39 Breakfast trends Out Of Home 65% OOH breakfast occasions include coffee Breakfast sandwiches are the fastest growing food item in all of foodservice. 36% of all coffee foodservice occasions at breakfast include a breakfast sandwich + = $ NPD Group/CREST Total Foodservice YE Sep 2017
40 Coffee on-the-go is growing +46M (5-year) +54M (5-year) +42M (5-year) CONSUMED IN CAR (25% SHARE) DRIVE THRU (30% SHARE) CONSUMED AT HOME (15% SHARE) NPD Group/CREST Total Foodservice YE Sep 2017
41 Ethnic Analysis
42 Past-day coffee penetration similar across ethnicities. Some other beverages see clear ethnic skews. Percent Drinking Past-day Total Coffee Tap Water Bottled Water Milk/Milk Beverages Tea Juice/Juice Beverages Alcohol Pop/Soft Drinks Caucasian (A) South Asian (B) East/Southeast Asian (C) Source: Coffee Association of Canada annual beverage tracking.
43 Traditional coffee stronger among Caucasians. Gourmet stronger among Asian-Canadians. Percent Drinking Past-day Net Gourmet Coffee Beverages (GCB) Caucasians: 40% South Asians: 54% East/Southeast Asians: 51% Total Coffee Traditional Coffee Espresso-Based Beverages (EBB)* Non-Espresso-Based Beverages Caucasian (A) South Asian (B) East/Southeast Asian (C) Source: Coffee Association of Canada annual beverage tracking.
44 Caucasians tend to be heavier coffee drinkers. Mean Number Of Cups Among Past-day Coffee Drinkers Caucasian South Asian East/Southeast Asian Source: Coffee Association of Canada annual beverage tracking.
45 Caucasians are more likely to be in-home only drinkers. Percent Drinking Past-day Caucasian South Asian East/Southeast Asian In-Home ONLY Out-of-Home ONLY Both In-Home and Out-of-Home Source: Coffee Association of Canada annual beverage tracking.
46 Trends Affecting Coffee 46
47 Morning Meal is stealing share in foodservice Traffic by Daypart (Millions) Lunch 1,202,060 1,284,653 1,452,124 1,557,210 1,626,594 Breakfast Supper Afternoon Snack Morning Snack Evening Snack NPD Group/CREST YE Aug Total 2017 Foodservice YE Sep 2017
48 Breakfast Innovation
49 Digital Door 126M Total Digital Orders (+19% since 2016) 17M Digital Coffee Orders 32M Mobile Payments NPD Group/CREST Total Foodservice YE Sep 2017
50 Demographics are shifting Change in visits since M +9M < 18 years old years old years old years old 65+ years old -49M -5 M -14 M NPD Group/CREST Total Foodservice YE Sep 2017 CREST YE Aug 2017
51 And coffee is shifting too. Change in coffee servings since M +102 M +3 M < 18 years old years old years old years old 65+ years old -75 M -45 M NPD Group/CREST Total Foodservice YE Sep 2017
52 The Future OF Coffee..Innovation, Health, Distribution 52
53 Questions?
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