Hop Market Report 14th June 2017
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1 Hop Market Report 14th June 2017 Hop acreage grows by approx ha (+5,4%) to ha worldwide ******** Normal growing conditions so far; balanced alpha supply and demand expected for brewing year 2018 I. Changes of acreage by country: * change ha ha ha % Germany ,1% Czech Rep ,6% Slovenia ,1% Poland ,5% England ,4% Spain ,0% France ,5% Romania ,8% Austria ,4% Slovakia ,0% Belgium ,0% Bulgaria ,3% Portugal ,0% Netherlands ,0% European Union ,8% Ukraine ,0% Russia ,7% Turkey ,0% Belarus ,4% Switzerland ,0% Other European countries ,9% EUROPE ,8% USA PNW ,4% USA except PNW ,2% USA total ,1% Argentina ,4% Canada ,1% AMERICA ,0%
2 China ,5% Japan ,3% ASIA ,8% South Africa ,6% AFRICA ,6% Australia ,6% New Zealand ,3% AUSTRALIA /OCEANIA ,0% WORLD ,4% * estimated A number of countries are again expanding acreage in The biggest increase is again seen in the US, which are now, with a strung area of ha, the largest producing country by a long distance. In Germany the acreage increases by nearly by ha as a result of the increasing demand for hops worldwide. II. Germany variety change ha % ha ha Perle ,1% Hallertauer Tradition ,4% Hersbrucker Spät ,6% Tettnanger ,0% Hallertauer Mittelfrüher ,4% Spalter Select ,4% Saphir ,1% Mandarina Bavaria ,9% Amarillo Hallertau Blanc ,4% Huell Melon ,2% Opal ,7% Saazer ,2% Spalter ,7% Other Aroma ,7% Total Aroma ,2% Northern Brewer ,8% Brewers Gold ,9% Total Bitter ,3% Herkules ,7% Hallertauer Magnum ,4% Hallertauer Taurus ,4% Polaris ,2% Nugget ,8% Other High-Alpha ,7% Total High-Alpha ,1% Other ,9% GERMANY TOTAL ,1% Source: deutscher Hopfenpflanzerverband
3 Germany reacts to the rising demand for bitter hops with a significant expansion of the Herkules variety, which increases by more than 900 ha as well as Polaris as a second pillar in the high alpha segment. The planting of 280 ha of the US flavor variety Amarillo is also noteworthy, which is grown in Germany for the first time. The number of hop farms continues to decrease by 22 to a remaining total of IIa) forward contract ratios for German varieties As can be seen in the graph below, most volumes produced in Germany are already under contract based on average production yields. 100 % contracted III. HPE HSE HHT TTE HTU HNB HHE HHM HHS USA: Pacific Northwest States (WA, OR, ID) Varieties Difference ha ha ha % Cascade % Centennial % Citra % Simcoe % Chinook % Other Aroma % Total Aroma ,1% Columbus-Tomahawk-Zeus (CTZ) % Summit %
4 Nugget % HBC % Other High-Alpha % Total High-Alpha ,5% USA (PNW) TOTAL ,4% Source: US Department of Agriculture (USDA) The US expands its acreage by acres. What is new is that the US, after having well supplied the market for flavor hops, are again turning their attention to the high alpha segment and are reversing the trend of years past when grubbing was the name of the game. First and foremost the planting of a newly bred variety, HCB682 is responsible for the expansion in this segment. IV. Plant growth and development: Germany Growing conditions in Germany were characterized by constantly changing conditions from cold and wet to hot and dry. At the end of May plant growth is close to normal development and plants are generally healthy. Precipitation and Temperature for Hüll, Wolnzach USA The generally cool and moist ground conditions provided hop roots with the proper environment for strong growth and normal plant development in the early stages of the growing season. Baby plantings are slightly behind in development while most mature fields are on schedule. Training of the vines was completed within the normal timeframe. Overall the crop looks very good in the early stages with all indications of a good crop at this point. Poland, Slovenia and Czech Republic
5 At the end of May, growth was a bit behind the longterm average but is expected to catch up thanks to warm conditions at the beginning of June. Pest control measures were undertaken in the normal realm. In Slovenia an area of 100 ha was affected by hail, but we do not expect a material effect on the total crop outcome. V. Market outlook: The 2016 hop crop did bring the expected détente in the flavor hop segment. Even the very sought after US flavor varieties (Citra, Amarillo, Simcoe, etc.) were available in the necessary amounts. Fine aroma hops from Europe, e.g. Czech Saaz, were available on the spot market for the first time in various years thanks to record yields. The only exception was the Galaxy TM variety from Australia which yielded below expectations in both crops 2016 and 2017 with just enough being harvested to meet contracts. Despite the above average yields of Perle and Hallertau Tradition the extra volumes were quickly absorbed by the spot market at very stable prices. This leads to the assumption of a structural shortage in these two varieties. Parallel to the softening of the flavor segment we noticed a clear tightening of the high alpha market. Several years of acreage reductions of high alpha varieties in the US have clearly resulted in a structural deficit in this segment. Only thanks to stocks from previous crops was it possible to satisfy worldwide demand. Hop production has already reacted and expanded acreage of these varieties in 2017, but full yields will not be available from these baby fields in the 2018 brewing year. The crop outcome will therefore be of utmost importance for how the market evolves. We forecast a more or less balanced supply and demand in terms of alpha always average yields and alpha acid contents provided. However, we need to look at each submarket individually. There are clear signals for a tightness in the high alpha segment where almost the full production is already under contract. The situation in the aroma segment needs to be looked at variety by variety, where market conditions range from well supplied to rather tight. We are closely observing plant development and growing conditions and will report again in case of events that materially affect the market outlook. The BARTH-HAAS GROUP
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