APPENDIX. Projections Commodity Unit Actual
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1 Projections Commodity Unit Coal, US $/mt na Crude oil, avg. spot $/bbl Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu n. a Natural gas, US $/mmbtu Agricuiture Cocoa /kg Coffee, arabica /kg Coffee, robusta /kg Tea, 3-auction average /kg Coconut oil $/mt Copra $/mt Groundnut meal $/mt Groundnut oil $/mt Palm oil $/mt Soybean meal $/mt Soybean oil $/mt Soybeans $/mt Maize $/mt Rice, Thai, 5% $/mt Sorghum $/mt Wheat, US, HRW $/mt Bananas $/mt Beef /kg Oranges $/mt Shrmp, Mexican /kg n.a. 1,152 1,069 1,612 1,579 1,460 1,450 1,465 1,525 1,590 Sugar, wodd /kg Logs, Cameroon $/cum Logs, Malaysia- $/cum Sawnwood, Malyasia- $/cum Other Cotton /kg Rubber, RSS1, Malaysia /kg Tobacco $/mt 1,076 2,276 3,392 3,529 3,342 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,250 3,300 DAP $/mt Phosphate rock $/mt Potassium chloride $/mt TSP $/mt Urea, E. Europe, bagged $/mt Aluminum $/mt 556 1,456 1,639 1,599 1,357 1,250 1,300 1,450 1,700 1,900 Copper $/mt 1,416 2,182 2,661 2,277 1,654 1,500 1,700 1,800 2,200 2,400 Gold $/toz Iron ore /dmtu Lead /kg Nickel $/mt 2,846 6,519 8,864 6,927 4,630 4,800 4,900 5,000 6,000 6,640 Silver /toz Tin /kg Zinc /kg n.a. = not available Source: Wodd Bank, Development Economics, Development Prospects Group 78 GLOBAL COMMODITY MARKTS
2 Commdt Unit _ 2005 Coal, US $/mt Crude oil, avg. spot $/bbl Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu Natural gas, US $/mmbtu Agricufture Cocoa /kg Coffee, arabica /kg Coffee, robusta /kg Tea, 3-auction average /kg Coconut oil $/mt Copra $/mt Groundnut meal $/mt Groundnut oil $/mt Palm oil $/mt Soybean meal $/mt Soybean oil $/mt ' Soybeans $/mt Maize $/mt R+ice, Thai, 5% $/mt Sorghum $/mt Wheat, US, HRW $/mt Bananas $/mt Beef /kg Oranges $/mt Shrimp, Mexican /kg Sugar, world /kg Logs, Cameroon $/cum Logs, Malaysiar $/cum Sawnwood, Malyasia- $/cum Other Cofton /kg Rubber, RSSI, Malaysia /kg i Tobacco $/mt DAP $/mt Phosphate rock $/mt Potassium chlofide $/mt TSP $/mt Urea, E. Europe, bagged $/mt Aluminum $/mt Copper $/mt Gold $/toz Iron ore /dmtu Lead /kg Nickel $/mt Silver /toz Tin /kg Zinc _ /kg_ Source: World Bank, Development Economics, Development Prospects Group,uly
3 Projections Commodity Unit Coal, US $/mt n.a Crude oil, avg. spot $/bbl Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu n.a , Natural gas, US $/mmbtu Agriculture Cocoa /kg Coffee, arabica /kg Coffee, robusta /kg Tea, 3-auction average /kg Coconut oil $/mt Copra $/mt Groundnut meal $/mt Groundnut oil $/mt Palm oil $/mt Soybean meal $/mt Soybean oil $/mt Soybeans $/mt Maize $/mt Rice, Thai, 5% $/mt Sorghum $/mt Wheat, US, HRW $/mt Bananas $/mt Beef t/kg Oranges $/mt Shrmp, Mexican /kg n.a. 1,600 1,069 1,487 1,515 1,393 1,362 1,342 1,265 1,166 Sugar, world /kg Logs, Cameroon $/cum Logs, Malaysia- $/cum Sawnwood, Malyasia- $/cum Other Cotton /kg Rubber, RSS1, Malaysia /kg Tobacco $/mt 4,290 3,162 3,392 3,256 3,207 2,862 2,817 2,749 2,695 2,420 DAP $/mt Phosphate rock $/mt Potassium chloride $/mt TSP $/mt Urea, E. Europe, bagged $/mt Aluminum $/mt 2,217 2,023 1,639 1,476 1,303 1,193 1,221 1,329 1,410 1,393 Copper $/mt 5,645 3,032 2,661 2,101 1,588 1,431 1,596 1,649 1,825 1,760 Gold $/toz Iron ore /dmtu Lead I/kg Nickel S/mt 11,348 9,056 8,864 6,392 4,443 4,579 4,601 4,582 4,976 4,869 Silver /toz Tin /kg Zinc I/kg n.a. = not available Source: World Bank, Development Economics, Development Prospects Group 80 GLOBAL COMMODITY MARKETS
4 Commodity Unit Coal, US $/mt Crude oil, avg. spot $/bbl Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu Natural gas, US $/mmbtu Agriculture Cocoa /kg Coffee, arabica /kg Coffee, robusta /kg Tea, 3-auction average /kg Coconut oil $/mt Copra $/mt Groundnut meal $/mt Groundnut oil $/mt Palm oil $/mt Soybean meal $/mt Soybean oil $/mt Soybeans $/mt Maize $/mt Rice, Thai, 5% $/mt Sorghum $/mt Wheat, US, HRW $/mt Bananas $/mt Beef /kg Oranges $/mt Shnmp, Mexican /kg 1,250-1,532 1,116-1,687 1,007-1, ,695 Sugar, wodd /kg Logs, Cameroon $/cum Logs, Malaysia' $/cum Sawnwood, Malyasia' $/cum Other Cotton /kg Rubber, RSS1, Malaysia /kg Tobacco $/mt 2,576-3,148 2,254-3,380 2,034-3,464 1,806-3,585 DAP $/mt Phosphate rock $/mt Potassium chlorde $/mt TSP $/mt Urea, E. Europe, bagged $/mt Aluminum $/mt 1,073-1, , , ,974 Copper $/mt 1,264-1,598 1,221-1,972 1,100-2,199 1,078-2,571 Gold $/toz Iron ore /dmtu Lead /kg Nickel $/mt 4,102-5,247 3,474-5,751 3,024-6,139 2,986-6,966 Silver /toz Tin /kg Zinc /kg Source: Worid Bank, Development Economics, Development Prospects Group t ~~~~~ _. : _...._._.. I july
5 WE Projections* Petroleum Non-Energy Commodities Agnculture Fats and oils Other food Raw materials Other Metals and minerals d.. ~I. 1.._'. Petroleum Non-Energy Commodities Agnculture Fats and oils Other food Raw materals Other Raw Materals Metals and minerals !,~--,,. ~ MUV index % change per annum US GDP deflator % change per annum *Commodity price projections as of July 27, The World Bank prmary commodity prce indices are computed based on export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to Weights for the sub-group indices expressed as ratios to the non-energy index are as follows in percent: agrculture 69.1, fertilizers 2.7, metals and minerals 28.2; beverages 16.9, food 29.4, raw materials 22.8, fats and oils 10.1, grains 6.9, other food 12.4; timber 9.3 and other raw materials Computed from unroundedata and deflated by the MUV index. -lnflation indices for are projections as of Aprl 6, Data for 1997, US GDP deflator is actual, MUV is a preliminary estimate. Growth rates for years 1980, 1990, 1997, 2005 and 2010 refer to compound annual rate of change between adjacent end-point years; all others are annual growth rates from the previous year. -Unit value index in US dollar terms of manufactures exported from the G-5 countnes (France, Germany, Japan, UK, and US) weighted proportionally to the countres' exports to the developing countres. Source: World Bank, Development Pmspects Group. Historical US GDP deflator US Department of Commerce. 82 GLOBAL COMMODITY M%RKETS
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