2014 U.S. Dry Bean Outlook

Transcription

1 2014 U.S. Dry Bean Outlook Steven Zahniser and Hodan Farah Wells USDA Economic Research Service Presentation delivered at U.S. Dry Bean Convention Coeur d Alene, ID, August 5, 2014 The views expressed are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA.

2 Purpose To provide a snapshot of the 2013 U.S. dry bean crop To place the 2013 crop in the context of long-term trends in the dry bean sector Main data sources: USDA/ERS, Vegetables and Pulses Outlook USDA/AMS, Bean Market News USDA/NASS, Crop Production, July 2014 USDA/FAS, Global Agricultural Trade System

3 2013 U.S. Dry Bean Crop

4 2013 U.S. Dry Bean Crop at a Glance Production Area planted Area harvested Yield 24 million cwt 1.3 million acres 1.7 million acres 1867 lbs./acre Much smaller crop than in 2012: Area planted, down 29 percent Area harvested, down 28 percent Yields, 1 percent smaller Total production, down 23 percent

5 U.S. Dry Bean Production, 2013 vs Variety Change Historical Comparisons 5-Year average ( ) 1,000 cwt Percent 1,000 cwt Percent Total 31,925 24, , Pinto 13,534 8, , Navy (pea bean) 4,906 3, , Black 3,739 2, , Red Kidney, total 1,707 1, , Garbanzo, total 3,332 3, , Great Northern 1,222 1, , Other 3,485 3, , Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production).

6 Composition of 2013 Dry Bean Crop by Variety Varieties by share of total, 2013: Pinto, 35% Garbanzo, 14% Navy (pea bean), 14% Black, 10% Red Kidney, 7% Great Northern 6% Other 14% Pinto 35% Varieties by share of total, : Pinto, 40% Navy (pea bean), 15% Black, 14% Garbanzo, 9% Red Kidney, 6% Red Kidney, total 7% Black 10% Navy (pea bean) 14% Garbanzo, total 14% Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production).

7 U.S. Dry Bean Acres Planted, 2013 vs Variety Change 1,000 cwt Percent Total, dry beans 1,540 1,911 1,218 1,743 1, Pinto Garbanzo, total Navy (pea bean) Black Great Northern Red Kidney, total Other Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (acres planted).

8 Several major changes in area planted took place between 2012 and 2013 at the state level State Variety Total Black Red kidney Garbanzo Pinto Other CALIFORNIA COLORADO IDAHO KANSAS MICHIGAN MINNESOTA MONTANA NEBRASKA NORTH DAKOTA OREGON SOUTH DAKOTA US TOTAL Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (acres planted).

9 Grower Prices Reflect Changes in U.S. Production for Pinto, Navy, and Black Variety (Location) Average of monthly grower prices, Sept. - July 2012/13 vs. 2013/14 change in: 2012/ /14 Grower price U.S. output $/cwt Percent Pinto (ND/MN) Navy (peas beans) (MI) Black (MI) Light red kidney (NE/CO) Dark red kidney (MN/WI) Garbanzo (WA/ID) Great Northern (NE/WY) Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, Agriculture Marketing Service (prices) and USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production).

10 U.S. dry beans, all: Monthly grower prices $/cwt YTD: price increased 3.3% Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun 2010/11 Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 2011/ / / /12

11 Ratio of average dry bean price to corn price Million acres Dry bean acres planted Dry bean/corn price ratio (t-1) Percent f: million acres f Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service (price ratio) and USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (acres planted). 0

12 Trends in Domestic Production

13 U.S. dry bean production in 2013 down 23 percent Million pounds 4,000 3,500 Dry beans, total Garbanzo 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production).

14 U.S. dry bean production partially shifted from the Northern Plains to the Northwest over the past 4 years States Average annual production Share Change in share ,000 cwt Percent Percentage points North Dakota 9,782 7, Michigan 3,412 3, Nebraska 2,588 2, Minnesota 2,653 2, Idaho 1,681 2, Washington 1,015 1, California 1,249 1, Other 3,144 3, Total 25,524 25, Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production). Individual values may not total precisely due to rounding.

15 Geographic Distribution of U.S. Dry Bean Production, Distribution, ND/MN: 49% NE/CO/WY: 19% Michigan: 13% Others: 19% Map depicts data for 2008 and is used to illustrate production areas Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

16 Geographic Distribution of U.S. Dry Bean Production, Distribution, ND/MN: 41% ID/WA/WY/MT: 19% NE/CO: 13% Michigan: 13% Others: 14% Map depicts data for 2013 and is used to illustrate production areas Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

17 Planting intentions for dry beans in 2014 suggest a lessening of this shift State Area planted (I) Thousands of acres Change, 2014 v Percent United States 1,743 1,355 1, North Dakota Michigan Nebraska Minnesota Idaho Washington Other States I = Intended plantings as indicated by reports from farmers. Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

18 Average U.S. dry bean area per farm grew slightly between 2007 and 2012, and the number of dry bean farms increased Census Year Number of farms Area harvested Number Acres Average dry bean area per farm ,896 1,642, ,236 1,455, ,647 1,691, ,348 1,731, ,201 1,548, ,914 1,670, Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

19 Yields: A gentle upward trend Yield (cwt)/acre Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service (5-year moving average) and USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (yield).

20 Trends in Demand and Trade

21 Annual U.S. dry bean use/availability is about 6.0 pounds per person Pounds, per person Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from 2013 Vegetables and Pulses Yearbook report.

22 U.S. dry bean trade, 1991/ /14* Million pounds 1,200 1,000 Exports Imports 2013/14 Sept-May Imports up 22%; Exports up 4% *2013/14 is ERS estimate based on year-to-date trade. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau.

23 U.S. dry beans: Global Integration, Percent Share of use imported Share of supply exported s 1980s 1990s 2000s Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

24 U.S. dry bean imports by origin average Other, 81, 27% Canada, 71, 23% Peru, 33, 11% China, 69, 23% Mexico, 50, 16% Million pounds Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau.

25 U.S. dry bean imports by class average Other, 44, 15% Vigna, 50, 16% Small red, 9, 3% Navy/pea, 13, 4% Red kidney, 25, 8% Pinto, 12, 4% Black, 19, 6% Other kidney, 38, 13% Blackeye/cowpea, 24, 8% Mung, 30, 10% Garbanzo, 40, 13% Million pounds Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau.

26 Mexican peruano beans awaiting export in Nogales, Sonora, July 2014 Source: Photograph by Steven Zahniser

27 U.S. dry bean exports by destination: average Other, 177, 16% Haiti, 12, 1% Angola, 15, 1% Mexico, 334, 30% Rest of CAFTA-DR, 17, 2% France(*), 18, 2% New Zealand(*), 20, 2% Japan, 32, 3% Italy(*), 49, 4% Dominican Republic, 64, 6% Canada, 130, 12% Rest of EU-28, 68, 6% Taiwan, 71, 7% Million pounds United Kingdom, 88, 8% Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau.

28 U.S. dry bean exports by class, average Other, 244, 22% Pinto, 232, 21% Other kidney, 50, 5% Red kidney, 52, 5% Navy/pea, 213, 20% Garbanzo, 136, 12% Black, 167, 15% Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. Million pounds

29 Conclusions 2013 crop: Much smaller than in 2012: Area planted, down 29 percent Area harvested, down 28 percent Yields, 1 percent smaller Total production, down 23 percent 2014 crop: Potentially larger than in 2013: Area planted, up 24 percent Weather permitting, production could reach levels comparable to 2010 or 2012

30 Thanks! Steven Zahniser and Hodan Farah Wells *We would like to thank Donita West for her contributions to this presentation. ERS website: ERS Vegetables and Pulses Page: ERS Vegetables and Pulses Data : FAS Global Agricultural Trade System: National Agricultural Statistics Service: