A PROFILE OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN DAIRY MARKET VALUE CHAIN

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1 A PROFILE OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN DAIRY MARKET VALUE CHAIN 2017 Directorate Marketing Tel: Private Bag X 15 Fax: Arcadia MogalaM@daff.gov.za TABLE OF CONTENTS 1

2 1. DESCRIPTION OF THE INDUSTRY MILK PRODUCTION AREAS PRODUCTION TRENDS EMPLOYMENT MARKET STRUCTURE DOMESTIC MARKET AND PRICES EXPORT AND IMPORT OF DAIRY PRODUCTS EXPORTS Export values of milk and dairy products IMPORTS MARKETING CHANNELS IN THE DAIRY INDUSTRY EMPOWERMENT PLANS BY THE INDUSTRY SUCCESSFUL VENTURES: COMMERCIALLY VIABLE TRAINING PROGRAMMES MAGAZINES BARRIERS TO THE LEVEL OF PARTICIPATION BY THE EMERGING SECTOR OPPORTUNITIES AND WEAKNESSES MARKET INTELLIGENCE EXPORT TARIFFS Product Code Trade Regime Description IMPORT TARIFFS COMPETITIVENESS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY EXPORTS Milk and cream (neither concentrated nor sweetened) Milk and cream, concentrated or sweetened Buttermilk and yoghurt Whey and other natural milk products Butter and other fats and oils derived from milk Cheese and Curd IMPORTS Milk and cream (neither concentrated nor sweetened) Milk and cream, concentrated or sweetened Buttermilk and yoghurt Whey and other natural milk products Butter and other fats and oils derived from milk Cheese and Curd ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

3 Million Rands 1. DESCRIPTION OF THE INDUSTRY The contribution of milk production in South Africa makes approximately 0.5% to the world milk production. There are four major dairy breeds in South Africa namely, Holstein, Jersey, Guernsey and Ayrshire. The industry comprises of number of different economic activities and significant differences exist between farming methods and processing of dairy products. These activities involve the production and marketing of raw milk, pasteurized milk and cream, fermented milk, long-life milk and cream, yoghurt, cheese and its by-product whey, milk powder, sweetened and unsweetened concentrated milk, butter and butter oil (ghee) Figure 1: Gross value of fresh milk production / / / / / / / / / /16 Years Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF The gross value of production for milk is dependent on the quantity produced and prices received by producers. Figure 1 indicates that the gross value of fresh milk has been moving at an increasing rate and reached its new peak of R15 billion in 2014/15. However, in 2015/16 the gross value experienced a decrease of 6% due to the drought experienced in 2015 to There is an exponential increase of 136% during 2015/16 relative to 2006/07. The average gross value of milk produced amounted to R10.4 billion for the past ten years Milk production areas The coastal areas are more suitable for milk production because of mild temperatures as well as good rainfall ensuring good quality natural and artificial pastures. The inland production areas are generally climatically less favourable for milk production. Dairy farming in these areas necessitate intensive and high cost feedlot production systems. Figure 2 shows contribution of provinces to total milk production in South Africa in

4 North West 5% Figure 2: Milk production per province 2016 Gauteng 2% MpumalangaLimpopo 3% 1% Free State 7% Western Cape 31% KwaZulu-Natal 24% Eastern Cape 28% Northern Cape 0% Source: MPO The Western Cape contributed 31% of the total milk produced in South Africa followed by Eastern Cape and KwaZulu Natal with 28% and 24% respectively. This may be because the three provinces are coastal areas. The Free State contributed 7%, North West 5%, Mpumalanga 3%; Gauteng 2%; while the Northern Cape and Limpopo provinces shared less than 1%. It is clear from the figure that the coastal arears contribute about 83% to the total milk production in the country. This is the case due to the better pasturage amongst other reasons Production trends South Africa produces some 2.8 million tons per annum over the period of ten years. Irrespective of the number of producers exiting in milk production, milk production per annum shows a steady linear upward trend over the period under analysis. However, there was a slight decrease of 0.2% in 2015/16 from the previous year. The number of dairy cows has been fluctuating throughout the period under review. The number of cows and milk production has increased by 28% and 23% respectively from 2006/07 to 2015/16. 2

5 Thousand tons No. of cows ' Figure 3: Milk production and number of cows Production Dairy of Cows '000 Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF and LACTODATA 1.3. Employment The South African dairy industry is important to the job market with over milk producers employing farm workers and providing people with indirect jobs within the value chain like milk processing and milling industry. 2. MARKET STRUCTURE The South African dairy market is divided into 60% liquid and 40% concentrated products. Pasteurized liquid milk and UHT milk are the major liquid products, while hard and semi-hard cheese is the major concentrated product. Different types in each category are shown in Figures 4 and 5. Figure 4: Composition of milk products (Liquid) in 2016 Flavoured Milk 2% Cream 1% Yoghurt 12% Other 8% Pasteurised Milk 34% Source: Milk SA, 2017 UHT 43% 3

6 Thousand tons Rands per Litre Figure 4 shows that UHT (long life) has the highest percentages of 43% followed by pasteurized milk with 34%, yoghurt by 12%. Flavoured milk and cream commanded the lowest market share of liquid milk with 2% and 1% respectively. Figure 5: Composition of concentrated milk products 2016 SMP 4% FMP 9% Butter 13% Whey Powder 9% Buttermilk Powder 1% Cheese 57% Condensed Milk 7% Source: Milk SA, 2017 Concentrated milk products consist of 57%, cheese followed by Butter with 13%, FMP and Whey powder at 9% each, and then condensed milk at 7%, SMP at 4% and Buttermilk powder with 1% DOMESTIC MARKET AND PRICES Local milk consumption and prices are illustrated in Figure Figure 6: Consumption and price of fresh milk 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Consumption Rands/litre Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF 4

7 Million kilograms Figure 6 indicates that milk price started low in 2006/07, and then started moving at slight fluctuation rate from 2007/08 to 2011/12 which followed by an increasing trend up to year 2014/15. During the period 2015/16 milk price experienced a 4% decline. Consumption of milk has been fluctuating throughout the period under review and reached the new peak of 2.1 million tons in 2014/15, followed by a slight decrease of 0.7% in 2015/16. Milk consumption is driven by global population growth and growth in per capita consumption. Despite the fluctuating trend, milk consumption has increased by 17% from 2006/07 to 2015/ EXPORT AND IMPORT OF DAIRY PRODUCTS The most important producers of milk internationally are Asia, the European Union (EU), North America and Central America. Milk production in South Africa makes a very small contribution (0.5%) to the world production but in terms of the values of agricultural production in South Africa, it is the sixth largest agricultural industry Milk is produced much more cheaply in New Zealand and certain parts of the world than in South Africa. Imported milk from the EU and US is cheaper than in South Africa because of subsidies in these countries. Dairy companies in those countries are paid a guaranteed floor price for designated quantities of dairy products. Dairy companies in both countries are given a subsidy to bridge the gap between the supported domestic price and world market price. In the EU, dairy farmers are paid subsidies for the use of certain inputs. The annual imports and exports of dairy products of South Africa from 2007 to 2016 are shown in Figure 8. Figure 8: Imports and exports quantity of milk and dairy products Export Import Source: Quantec EasyData Figure 8 showed that South Africa was a net importer in 2007 and became a net exporter of milk and dairy products during the periods 2008 to The increase in exports from 2010 to 2012 was due to the attractive international price of milk, which encouraged more exports. Despite fact that South Africa is a net exporter, the trends show that from 2013 to 2016 the exports are slightly decreasing while the imports are increasing from 2013 to

8 Thousand tons Million Rands 2.2. EXPORTS The dairy industry is an important earner of foreign exchange. In 2014 only, exports of dairy products amounted to tons valued at over R 2, 7 billion. There was a significant increase in quantity and value of milk and dairy products exported to the world in 2016 compared to Figure 9 below shows the exports of dairy products from 2007 to Figure 9: Exports of milk and dairy products Quantity Value Source: Quantec EasyData From Figure 9 above, exports quantity fluctuated throughout the period under analysis. Exports of milk and dairy products experienced the lowest exports during the periods 2007 to 2009 before increasing substantially in 2010 to 2012 and shown decreasing trend during the following years. The decrease in quantity experienced in 2009 was due to the low production in the local market. Exports of dairy product trend shows that it was profitable to export during the period under analysis except in 2012 as high quantity was exported at a lower value. 6

9 Figure 10: South african milk and dairy products destination in 2016 Tanzania 2% Zambia Angola 2% 3% Zimbabwe 4% Zambia 1% Others 0% Lesotho 11% Botswana 41% Swaziland 11% Namibia 12% Mozambique 13% Source: Quantec EasyData Figure 10 shows that during 2016 Botswana commanded the greatest market share of South African milk and dairy products exports accounting for 41% followed by Mozambique with 13% and Namibia 12%, Swaziland and Lesotho with 11% each. The rest of the countries shared remaining 12%. Noteworthy is the fact that most of the South African export market of dairy is SADC countries. 7

10 Kilograms Figure 11: Quantities of milk and dairy products exports by South Africa Source: Quantec EasyData Milk and cream, not concentrated nor sweetened Milk and cream, concentrated or sweetened Buttermilk, curdled milk and cream, yoghurt Whey Butter and other fats and oils Cheese and curd Figure 11 shows the quantities of milk and dairy products exports by South Africa. In total, the milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) dominated the export market of milk and dairy products and commanded the total highest export share of 40%. Milk and cream, not concentrated nor sweetened commanded the second greatest share of 36% followed by buttermilk with 15.6% during 2007 to Whey commanded the lowest export quantities share of 2% during the past decade Export values of milk and dairy products Figures shows the export of milk and dairy products from Provinces and District Municipalities. 8

11 Thousand Rand Figure 12: Value of milk and dairy products from provinces Source: Quantec EasyData Western Cape Eastern Cape Northern Cape Free State KwaZulu-Natal North West Gauteng Mpumalanga Limpopo Figure 12 illustrates that Gauteng Province played a major role in the exports of milk and dairy products from 2007 to 2016 peak value of R2.2 billion in This may be due to the fact that Gauteng is the main exit point to the SADC region as most of these exports were destined to SADC region. Western Cape Province commanded the second highest of milk and dairy products exports throughout the period under review. On average, Gauteng commanded R1.26 billion followed at a distance by Western Cape with R248 million, then Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal Provinces which commanded R50 million and R36.8 million respectively. The lowest value of milk and dairy products were recorded in Eastern Cape and Northern Cape provinces with R and R respectively. Eastern Cape, Northern Cape and North West recorded fractional exports from 2007 to

12 Thousand Rands Thousand Rands Figure 13: Values of milk and dairy products exported from the Western Cape Province Source: Quantec EasyData City of Cape Town West Coast Cape Winelands Overberg Eden central Karoo In Western Cape Province, Cape Winelands District Municipality and City of Cape Town Metropolitan Municipality played an important role in the export of milk and dairy products throughout the period under analysis. Fractional exports were recorded from West Coast, Central Karoo and Overberg District Municipalities. There was a drastic increase of export value of milk and dairy products from Cape Winelands, which accounted for an export share of 77% in 2015 and 69% in Figure 14: Value of milk and dairy products exported from the Eastern Cape Province Cacadu Joe Gqabi Alfred Nzo Nelson Mandela Bay Buffalo City Source: Quantec EasyData 10

13 Thousand rands In Eastern Cape Province, high milk and dairy products exports values have been recorded from Cacadu District Municipality, which commanded the highest values from 2007 to Cacadu has decreased its exports in 2016 by 15%. Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality has upped its exports and took over the highest position in 2016 with export share of 54%. Irregular exports of milk and dairy products were recorded in the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan Municipality, Joe Gqabi, Alfred Nzo and Buffalo City District Municipalities. Figure 15: Value of milk and dairy products exported from Free State Province Xhariep Lejweleputswa Thabo Mofutsanyane Fezile Dabi Mangaung Source: Quantec EasyData Intermittent values were recorded from Free State Province in all District Municipalities (Xhariep, Thabo Mofutsanyane, Fezile Dabi, Lejweleputswa and Mangaung). Mangaung District Municipality recorded a highest value of R58.7 million in 2016 and Lejweleputswa recorded the second highest values of R33 million in These accounted for 51% and 29% respectively. There were no records of exports from Free State Province during 2007 and

14 Thousand Rand Thousand Rand Figure 16: Value of milk and dairy products exported from KwaZulu- Natal Province Ugu UMgungundlovu Uthukela Zululand Uthungulu ilembe Sisonke ethekwini Source: Quantec Easy data In KwaZulu-Natal Province, high milk and dairy products export values have been recorded at ethekwini Metropolitan Municipality throughout the period of analysis. Other District Municipalities (Ugu, UMgungundlovu, UThukela, Zululand, UThungulu, Sisonke and ilembe) recorded intermittent exports of milk and dairy products during the past decade. Milk and dairy products export values from ethekwini peaked in 2015 record of R 64 million. EThekwini has recorded an export share of over 90% from 2007 to From 2014 to 2016, Umgungundlovu recorded higher values of exports, which accounted for 18%, 33% and 38% respectively. Figure 17: Value of milk and dairy products exported by North West Province Bojanala Ngaka Modiri Molema Dr Ruth Segomotsi Mompati Dr Kenneth Kaunda Source: Quantec EasyData 12

15 Thousand Rands Intermittent values were recorded in North West Province from all District Municipalities (Bojanala, Ngaka Modiri Molema, Dr Ruth Segomotsi Mompati and Dr. Kenneth Kaunda). Dr. Kenneth Kaunda District Municipality recorded a sharp increase of R796 thousand in 2009 and decreased substantially in 2010 before experiencing an increase in 2013 and decreasing again in The district reached peak in In total, Dr Kenneth Kaunda has recorded 53% of exports followed by Ngaka Modiri Molema and Bojanala with 26% and 20% respectively. Lastly, Dr Ruth Segomotsi Mompati recorded the lowest exports share of less than 1% for the past decade. Figure 18: Value of milk and dairy products exported from Gauteng province Sedibeng West Rand Ekurhuleni City of Johannesburg City of Tshwane Source: Quantec EasyData In Gauteng Province, high milk and dairy products export values have been recorded for the past ten years at the City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality with the new peak in 2014 valued at approximately R2 billion. However, the milk and dairy products export values decreased by 38% in 2015 and 5% in Ekurhuleni District Municipality commanded the second level following City of Johannesburg at a distance. Sedibeng, West Rand, Ekurhuleni, City of Johannesburg and City of Tshwane recorded regular exports of milk and dairy products. City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality has recorded export share of over 90% from 2010 to

16 Thousand rands thousand rands Figure 19: Value of milk and dairy products exported from Mpumalanga Province Gert Sibande Nkangala Ehlanzeni Source: Quantec EasyData In Mpumalanga Province, outstanding export values of milk and dairy products were recorded at Ehlanzeni District Municipality, which recorded exports regularly during the past decade. Irregular exports of milk and dairy products were recorded from Gert Sibande and Nkangala District Municipalities. Ehlanzeni District Municipality has reached its peak in 2014 record of R107 million, and then showed a decreasing trend in 2015 to Figure 20: Value of milk and dairy products exported from Limpopo Province Vhembe Capricorn Waterberg Greater Sekhukhune Source: Quantec EasyData Limpopo Province recorded minimal exports of milk and dairy products during 2007 to Vhembe and Capricorn District Municipalities recorded exports regularly. Vhembe recorded the highest exports for the entire decade. Waterberg and Greater Sekhukhune District Municipalities have recorded intermittent exports. Waterberg District Municipality reached a peak in milk and dairy products export values and became second highest exporter in 2015, accounting for 26% share. 14

17 Thousand tons Million Rands Rands Figure 21: Value of milk and dairy products exported from Northern Cape Province Quantec EasyData Namakwa Siyanda Source: Northern Cape Province has not been recording any exports from 2007 to 2011 and in The Province attained its peak in 2015 through Siyanda District Municipality n export share of 85%. However, in 2016, the Municipality dropped significantly and then Namakwa took a lead with an export share of 64% IMPORTS South Africa is an importer of dairy products. The average import quantity and value over the past ten years amounted to tons at a value of R1.2 billion over the past 10 years. Figure 22 presents the imports of milk and dairy products from 2007 to Figure 22: South Africa imports of milk and dairy products Quantity Value Source: Quantec Easydata 15

18 Kilograms Figure 22 above shows that imports of milk and dairy products fluctuated in both quantity and value throughout the period under analysis. The import quantity of milk and dairy products reached the new peak of over tons and the value reached a new peak of over R1.8 billion in The quantity and value dropped significantly in 2013 and remained constant throughout This might be due to the weaker South African Rand. In 2016, both import quantity and value have declined by 18% and 6%. Figure 23 below shows the different types of milk and dairy products imported from 2007 to 2016 in terms of quantity Figure 23: Quantities of milk and dairy products imported by South Africa Milk and cream, not concentrated nor sweetened Buttermilk, curdled milk and cream, yoghurt, kephir Butter and other fats and oils Milk and cream, concentrated or sweetened Whey Cheese and curd Source: Quantec EasyData Figure 23 shows that milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened), whey and milk and cream (not concentrated nor sweetened) were among the most imported dairy products in South Africa during the period under analysis. Milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) commanded the greatest quantities of the import market in Milk and cream (not concentrated and sweetened) dominated the imports market from 2008 to 2010, 2012, 2015 and 2016 whereas whey recorded the highest quantities imported during 2011 and Buttermilk, curdled milk and Butter and other fats and oils contributed lower to the exports of milk and dairy products for the entire period of analysis. Figure 24 below shows the different types of milk and dairy products imported from 2007 to 2016 in terms of value. 16

19 Rand Figure 24: Value of milk and dairy products imported by South Africa Milk and cream, not concentrated nor sweetened Buttermilk, curdled milk and cream Butter and other fats and oils Milk and cream, concentrated or sweetened Whey Cheese and curd Source: Quantec Easydata Figure 24 above indicate that cheese and curd, milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) and whey commanded the greatest share of milk and dairy products imported by South Africa during the past decade. On average cheese and curd and milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) commanded a share of R418 million and R 285 million per annum respectively. Followed by whey with R 218 million, butter, other fats and oils at R121 million. Milk and cream not concentrated nor sweetened at R83 million, and Buttermilk R49 million. Figure 25 shows the origin of milk and dairy products imported to South Africa in

20 Figure 25: Countries of origin for milk and dairy products imported by South Africa during 2016 Belgium 3% Netherlands 3% Ireland 5% Other 11% Poland 23% Germany 7% United Kingdom 8% Uruguay 10% New Zealand 13% France 17% Source: Trade map Figure 25 above shows that the main supplier of milk and dairy products to South Africa in 2016 was Poland which had an import market share of 23%, followed by France which exported 17%, then New Zealand with 13%, and Uruguay with 10% of milk and dairy products to South Africa. Plenty of countries exported minimal amounts of milk and dairy products to South African in MARKETING CHANNELS IN THE DAIRY INDUSTRY Milk production in South Africa is mainly by two sectors; commercial producers, and small and medium size producers (see Figure 26). Commercial producers sell milk to dairy processors. Small and medium size producers sell most of their milk directly to consumers and some to processors. Dairy processors buy milk from farmers and import milk concentrates and produces dairy products for primary distribution to retailers, exports and for further processing. 18

21 Figure 26: Marketing Channels. Commercial Dairy farms Small and Medium Dairy Farms Bulk collection Imports Dairy Processors Dairy Products (Cheese, Butter, etc.) Secondary dairy products Exports Primary Distribution Retailers Small and informal trade Institutions Consumers 19

22 3. EMPOWERMENT PLANS BY THE INDUSTRY The following is a list of ventures/projects/programmes. Media releases were arranged for the dairy industry. The MPO, in conjunction with the provincial departments and municipalities and other relevant stakeholders were responsible for these empowerment plans Successful ventures: Commercially viable Fort Hare Dairy Trust outside Alice in Eastern Cape started in 2004 and the first cow was milked in October The trust started between a partnership between 70 white farmers from the Tsitsikamma and the Underberg area through their company Amandlelo Agri and University of Fort Hare. The University donated land and the cost of the project was R22 million (R2 million donated by University, R5 million by Amandlelo and 15 million by Land Bank of which 7.5 million is loan). The farmers signed on an empowerment company Vuwa Investments which was given 35% stake in the company. The farmers kept 49 % and the rest was shared among 600 workers from the 70 dairy farms. Today Fort Hare Dairy Trust is a state-of-the-art commercial dairy farm. It has 800 cow rotary parlour that produces approximately litres of milk a day much of which is supplied to Clover milk company. The farm that requires 600 tons of maize is sourced from farmers in the Alice area. Every year Amandlelo takes between 10 and 15 black interns. Some of them are sent to Fort Hare Dairy Trust. Farmers are rewarded with cattle as they pass through different stages. This will enable them to start their own full time dairy farming (Pretoria News, 17 June 2009) Training Programmes Agri SETA accredited farm worker training. Agri SETA accredited emerging farmer training. Workers training funded by MILK SA. Training of Extension officers of Department of Agriculture in North West Province and Free State Magazines Ubisi Mail and Dairy Mail are distributed free of charge to emerging farmers. 4. BARRIERS TO THE LEVEL OF PARTICIPATION BY THE EMERGING SECTOR The low profitability of milk production is the major barrier to entry for the emerging farmers. Access to credit facilities and financial package specially structured to their needs also plays a role. The volatility of the market and the effect of imports in depressing producer prices make it difficult for the emerging farmers to enter the industry. The dynamics of pricing in the dairy industry as well as the shelf life of the products is such that the farmers are squeezed to accept whatever price that the producers/processors offer them to dispose of their products. The market is dominated by 4 major processors in the milk industry making it extremely difficult for the emerging farmers to make inroads in the dairy processing industry. They lack the necessary capital to invest in dairy equipment. The volume of milk produced may not be sufficient to invest in capital equipment. To form a cooperative would assist in increasing the volume through the collection of milk from several small farms. However the infrastructure and the 20

23 underdeveloped roads and the great distances between farms could be inhibiting factors to go this route. Smaller processors tend to pay higher raw milk prices than the larger processors during periods of seasonal milk shortages because they lack the bargaining power that the larger processors have. During periods of surpluses, the large producers dump their products in the retail sector at very low prices making it difficult for the small processors to compete. The big players in the market have facilities to convert raw milk into milk powder, butter, cheese or long-life milk, which can be stored for longer periods of time. This facility is capital intensive and for the volumes of raw milk produced by the emerging farmers, it is not really worth it in the long term. The farmers/producers lack the expertise, equipment to pasteurize milk. Transport and the quantity are major deterrents for small farmers to get their products to the big processors. The big processors/buyers find it not worth the effort to access these farmers due to the road infrastructure and small inconsistent and small volumes of milk produced. 5. OPPORTUNITIES AND WEAKNESSES Success in the dairy market depends on two factors namely: quality products and the support of processors. Successful advertising, exports and the development of new products are also important. Some consumers like to buy fresh milk direct from producers because the origin of the milk is known. A strong relationship can be built between producer/s and consumers. Producers can sell direct to small cafes and street vendors shortening the value chain cutting out some transaction costs resulting in an increase in profits. This channel will require higher capital and involves more risks. A sound relationship needs to be in place between the sellers and the buyers. Since deregulation, the number of smaller milk producers has increased dramatically and processors are willing to receive milk from the smaller producers. However, this supply channel will require high-level control measures on hygiene and the producer has to comply with the required standards. High demand of value added products such as sour milk, yoghurt and cheese can be a market to be explored. However to go this route would require high investment, market knowledge and the necessary training. Packaging to promote brand identification can open an opportunity but this would require market research and knowledge, training and investment. 6. MARKET INTELLIGENCE 6.1. Export Tariffs Tariffs that different importing countries applied to milk and dairy products originating from South Africa in 2015 and 2016 are shown in Tables 1 to 6 below. 21

24 Table 1: Milk and cream (neither concentrated nor sweetened) Country Product Trade Code Regime Description Applied Tariffs Total Ad Botswana; Lesotho; Swaziland & Namibia Mozambique Zimbabwe Source: Market Access Map ; ; ; ; : ; Intra SACU rate Preferential tariff for SA Preferential tariff for South Africa Applied Total Ad valorem Equivalent Tariff (estimated) Tariffs valorem Equivalent Tariff (estimated) 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 15% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland and Namibia allowed the importation of milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) from South Africa duty free during 2015 and 2016 using the Intra SACU rate. The protected market existed in Mozambique which applied the 15% of preferential tariff for South Africa. However, in 2016 and in 2016, the tariff decreased to 0%. Zimbabwe provided South Africa with 0% preferential tariff during 2015 and Table 2: Milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) Country Product Trade Regime code Description Applied Total Ad Applied Total Ad Tariffs valorem Tariffs valorem Equivalent Tariff (estimated) Equivalent Tariff (estimated) Mozambique , MFN Duties 0% 0% 0% 0% , , , , 0 Preferential tariff for South Africa 15% 15% 0% 0% & Preferential tariff for 0% 0% 0% 0% Zimbabwe & Botswana; Swaziland; Namibia & Lesotho Source: Market Access Map South Africa Preferential (SADC) for Africa tariff South 0% 0% 0% 0% Intra SACU rate 0% 0% 0% 0% Intra SACU rate 0% 0% 0% 0% 22

25 Mozambique has applied MFN duties of 0% for HS codes and for period 2015 and Preferential tariff for South Africa was applied at 15% in 2015 and 0% in 2016 on the selected HS codes products in Table 2 above. Zambia applied a preferential tariff (SADC) for South Africa of 0% for exports of milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) from South Africa during 2015 and Botswana, Swaziland, Namibia and Lesotho have applied an Intra SACU rate of 0% for the mentioned HS codes products in the table above in 2015 and Table 3: Buttermilk, cream, yoghurt, etc. Country Product Code Trade Regime Description Angola & Mozambique Botswana; Lesotho; Namibia Swaziland & Preferential tariff for South Africa ; ; & Source: Market Access Map Applied Tariffs Total Ad Applied Total Ad valorem Equivalent Tariff (estimated) Tariffs valorem Equivalent Tariff (estimated) MFN duties 10% 10% 10% 10% Preferential tariff for South Africa Intra SACU rate 15% 15% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% South African exports of buttermilk, cream and yoghurt to Angola received 10% MFN duties rate during 2015 and 2016 respectively. Mozambique has charged South Africa a preferential tariff of 15% in 2015 and 0% in 2016 for and 0% for HS code products in 2015 and Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland applied the Intra SACU rate of 0% to buttermilk, curdled milk, cream and yoghurt originating from South Africa in 2015 and Table 4: Whey and natural milk products Country Product Trade Regime code Description Applied Total Ad Applied Total Ad Tariffs valorem Tariffs valorem Equivalent Tariff (estimated) Equivalent Tariff (estimated) Japan ; MFN duties 35% 35% 35% 35% MFN duties 25% 25% 25% 25% Zimbabwe & Preferential tariff (SADC) for SA 0% 0% 0% 0% Zambia & Preferential tariff for SA 0% 0% 0% 0%

26 Country Namibia; Botswana & Lesotho Product code ; & Source: Market Access Map Trade Regime Description Applied Total Ad Applied Total Ad Tariffs valorem Tariffs valorem Equivalent Tariff (estimated) Equivalent Tariff (estimated) Intra SACU rate 0% 0% 0% 0% Japan has applied the highest tariff of whey and natural milk products originating from South Africa, 35% for and 25% for Zimbabwe allowed importation of whey from South Africa charging South Africa 0% tariff for SADC countries.in 2015 and Zambia applied a preferential tariff for South Africa of 0% in 2015 and Namibia, Botswana and Lesotho have applied an Intra SACU rate of 0% for whey and natural milk product originating from South Africa in 2015 and Table 5: Butter and other fats and oils derived from milk Country Product Trade Regime code Description Applied Tariffs Total Ad Namibia, Botswana and , , Lesotho Mozambique , , Applied Total Ad valorem Equivalent Tariff (estimated) Tariffs valorem Equivalent Tariff (estimated) Intra SACU rate 0% 0% 0% 0% Preferential tariff for SA 0% 0% 0% 0% Preferential tariff for SA 0% 0% 0% 0% Mauritius , & MFN duties (Applied) 0% 0% 0% 0% , Zimbabwe & Source: Market Access Map MFN duties (Applied) 40.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00% Namibia, Lesotho and Botswana apply Intra SACU rate of 0% for butter and other fats and oils derived from milk originating from South Africa. Mozambique has charged South Africa a 0% preferential tariff of the selected product in Table 14 above. Mauritius has charged South Africa 0% MFN duties on butter and other fats and oils derived from milk exported to them in 2015 and The most protected market exists in Zimbabwe pplied MFN duties of 40% during 2015 and

27 Table 6: Cheese and curd Country Product code Trade Regime Description Namibia, Swaziland Botswana & ; ; ; & Intra rate SACU Applied Total Ad Applied Total Ad Tariffs valorem Equivalent Tariff (estimated) Tariffs valorem Equivalent Tariff (estimated) 0% 0% 0% 0% Mozambique ; ; & ; ; Zambia ; & ; ; Zimbabwe ; & Source: Market Access Map Preferential tariff for SA Preferential tariff for SA MFN duties (Applied) 15% 15% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 40% 40% 40% Namibia, Botswana and Swaziland applied an Intra SACU rate of 0% for cheese and curd originating from South Africa in 2015 and Mozambique applied a preferential tariff of 15% in 2015 and 0% in 2016 to South Africa. Zambia applied a preferential tariff of 0% to South African cheese and curd during 2015 and Zimbabwe was the most protected market for South African exports of cheese and curd with the MFN duties of 40% during 2015 and Import tariffs Tables 7 to 12 below present the tariff structure applied by South Africa to imports of milk and dairy products originating from presented trade agreements in Table 7: Milk and cream, neither concentrated nor sweetened Rate of Duty Article Description Statistical unit General EU EFTA SADC MERCOSUR Milk and cream, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Of a fat content, by mass, not exceeding 1 per cent: 25

28 Ultra high temperature (UHT) Kg free free free free free or "long life" milk in containers holding 1 li or less, whether or not containing added minerals, vitamins, enzymes and similar additives solely for the purpose of increasing the nutritional value and provided these additives do not exceed 1 per cent by volume of the final product Other milk, whether or not Kg free free free free free containing added minerals, vitamins, enzymes and similar additives solely for the purpose of increasing the nutritional value and provided these additives do not exceed 1 per cent by volume of the final product Other Kg free free free free free Of a fat content, by mass, exceeding 1 per cent but not exceeding 6 per cent: Ultra high temperature (UHT) Kg free free free free free or "long life" milk in containers holding 1 li or less, whether or not containing added minerals, vitamins, enzymes and similar additives solely for the purpose of increasing the nutritional value and provided these additives do not exceed 1 per cent by volume of the final product Other milk, whether or not Kg free free free free free containing added minerals, vitamins, enzymes and similar additives solely for the purpose of increasing the nutritional value and provided these additives do not exceed 1 per cent by volume of the final product Other Kg free free free free free Of a fat content, by weight exceeding 6 per cent but not exceeding 10 per cent: 26

29 Ultra high temperature (UHT) Kg free free free free free or "long life" milk in containers holding 1 li or less, whether or not containing added minerals, vitamins, enzymes and similar additives solely for the purpose of increasing the nutritional value and provided these additives do not exceed 1 per cent by volume of the final product Other milk, whether or not Kg free free free free free containing added minerals, vitamins, enzymes and similar additives solely for the purpose of increasing the nutritional value and provided these additives do not exceed 1 per cent by volume of the final product Other Kg free free free free free Of a fat content by weight, exceeding 10 per cent: Ultra high temperature (UHT) Kg free free free free free or "long life" milk in containers holding 1 li or less, whether or not containing added minerals, vitamins, enzymes and similar additives solely for the purpose of increasing the nutritional value and provided these additives do not exceed 1 per cent by volume of the final product Other milk, whether or not Kg free free free free free containing added minerals, vitamins, enzymes and similar additives solely for the purpose of increasing the nutritional value and provided these additives do not exceed 1 per cent by volume of the final product Other Kg free free free free free Source: SARS,

30 Table 7 above indicates the sub products of milk and cream, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, and their rates of duty applied by South Africa. It is clear from the table that, within the presented trade agreements (EU, EFTA, SADC and MERCOSUR) and all other countries bringing the said products into South Africa, imports enter South Africa free of charge. In this case, there is no quota allocated for these products. Table 8: Milk and cream, concentrated or sweetened Article Description Rate of Duty Statistical unit General EU EFTA SADC MERCOSU R Milk and cream, concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: In powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content, by mass, not exceeding 1,5 per cent: Not flavoured and not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter Kg 450c/kg of 96% Other Kg 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% free free 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% In powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content, by mass, exceeding 1,5 per cent: Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter: Not flavoured Kg 450c/kg of 96% Other Kg 450c/kg of 96% Other Kg 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% free free free 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% Other: Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter Kg 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% free 450c/kg of 96% Other: 28

31 In aerosol containers Kg 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% free 450c/kg of 96% Other Kg 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% free 450c/kg of 96% Source: SARS, 2017 Table 8 above indicate the tariff duties applied to trade agreement members of EU, EFTA, SADC, MERCOSUR and General members on sub products of milk and cream, concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter. South Africa applied tariff of R4.50c/kg of 96% to trade agreements (EU, EFTA, MERCOSUR and General member of WTO) and duty free for SADC members. The total annual quota allocated for these products is tons for a rebate of 19.2%. Table 9: Buttermilk, cream, yoghurt, etc. Rate of Duty Article Description Statistical unit General EU EFTA SADC MERCOSUR Buttermilk, curdled milk and cream, yoghurt, kephir and other fermented or acidified milk and cream, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter or flavoured or containing added fruit, nuts or cocoa: Yoghurt kg free free free free free Other: Flavoured or containing fruits, nuts or cocoa Cultured milk, not concentrated or containing any sugar or other sweetening matter, unflavoured and not containing any fruits, nuts or cocoa (excluding buttermilk) kg kg 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% Other: kg 450c/kg of 96% Source: SARS, 2017 free free free 450c/kg of 96% free free 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% free free 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 29

32 Table 9 above indicate the tariff duties applied to trade agreement members of EU, EFTA, SADC, MERCOSUR and General members on sub products of Buttermilk, curdled milk and cream, yoghurt, kephir and other fermented or acidified milk and cream, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter or flavoured or containing added fruit, nuts or cocoa. South Africa applied duty free for all countries on HS product On HS product , the EU, EFTA and SADC received a duty free and MERCOSUR and General Members received R4.50c/kg of 96%. Lastly, for HS products HS and HS , EFTA, MERCOSUR and General Members received a rate of duty of R4.50c/kg of 96% and EU and SADC received duty free. The total annual quota allocated for these products is 213 tons rebate of 19.2%. Table 10: Whey and other natural milk products Rate of Duty Article Description Statistical unit General EU EFTA SADC MERCOSUR Whey, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter; products consisting of natural milk constituents, whether or not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, not elsewhere specified or included: Whey and modified Whey, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter Other Dairy powder blends, containing at least 30% (m/m) milk protein calculated on a fat-free basis kg kg 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% free free 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% Other kg Source: SARS, c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% 450c/kg of 96% free 450c/kg of 96% The tariff duties applied to trade agreement members of EU, EFTA, SADC, MERCOSUR and General members on sub products of whey, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter; products consisting of natural milk constituents, whether or not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, not elsewhere specified or included are presented in Table 10 above. South Africa 30

33 applied tariff of R4.50c/kg of 96% to trade agreements (EU, EFTA, MERCOSUR and General members) and free trade for SADC members. The total annual quota allocated for these products is tons rebate of 19.2%. Table 11: Butter and other fats and oils derived from milk 0405 Article Description In immediate packaging of a content of 20 kg or more Rate of Duty Statistical unit General EU EFTA SADC MERCOSUR Butter and other fats and oils derived from milk; dairy spreads: kg 500c/kg 500c/kg of 79% of 79% Other kg 500c/kg of 79% 500c/kg of 79% 500c/kg of 79% 500c/kg of 79% free free 500c/kg of 79% 500c/kg of 79% Dairy spreads kg 500c/kg of 79% 500c/kg of 79% 500c/kg of 79% free 500c/kg of 79% Other kg 500c/kg of 79% 500c/kg of 79% 500c/kg of 79% free 500c/kg of 79% Source: SARS, 2017 The tariff duties applied to trade agreement members of EU, EFTA, SADC, MERCOSUR and General members on sub products of Butter and other fats and oils derived from milk; dairy spreads are presented on table 11 above. South Africa applied tariff of R5/kg of 79% to trade agreements (EU, EFTA, MERCOSUR and General member) and duty free for SADC members. The total annual quota allocated for these products is tons for a rebate of 15.8%. Table 12: Cheese and curd Rate of Duty Article Description Cheese and curd: Fresh (unripened or uncured) cheese, including whey cheese, and curd Statistica l unit General EU EFTA Kg 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% SAD C free MERCOSU R 500c/kg of 95% 31

34 Grated or powdered cheese, of all kinds Processed cheese, not grated or powdered Blue-veined cheese and other cheese containing veins produced by PENICILLIUM ROQUEFORTI Other cheese: Cheddar Imported from 1 Switzerland Kg Kg Kg Kg 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% free free free free 500c/kg of 95% 500c/kg of 95% 500c/kg of 95% 500c/kg of 95% Other Kg 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% free 500c/kg of 95% Gouda Imported from 1 Switzerland Kg 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% free 500c/kg of 95% Other Kg 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% free 500c/kg of 95% Other Imported from 1 Switzerland Kg 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% free 500c/kg of 95% Other Kg 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% 500c/kg maximu m of 95% free 500c/kg of 95% Source: SARS,

35 The tariff duties applied to trade agreement members of EU, EFTA, SADC, MERCOSUR and General members on sub products of Cheese and curd are presented in Table 12 above. South Africa applied tariff of R5/kg of 95% to trade agreements (EU, EFTA, MERCOSUR and General member) and duty free for SADC members. The total annual quota allocated for these cheese and curd (excluding cheddar and Gouda cheese) is tons for a rebate of 15.8%. 33

36 7. COMPETITIVENESS OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 7.1. Exports Milk and cream (neither concentrated nor sweetened) Table 13: List of importing markets for the product exported by South Africa in 2016 South Africa s exports represent 0.7% of world exports for milk and cream, (not concentrated or sweetened), its ranking in world s exports is 26. Select your indicators Importers Value exported in 2016 (USD thousand) Trade balance 2016 (USD thousand) Share in South Africa's exports (%) Quantity exported in 2016 Quantity unit Unit value (USD/unit) Growth in exported value between (%, p.a.) Growth in exported quantity between (%, p.a.) Growth in exported value between (%, p.a.) Ranking of partner countries in world imports Share of partner countries in world imports (%) Total imports growth in value of partner countries between (%, p.a.) Average tariff (estimated) faced by South Africa (%) World Tons Botswana Tons Lesotho Tons Mozambique Tons Swaziland Tons Namibia Tons Zimbabwe Tons Tanzania Tons Mauritius Tons Malawi Tons Angola Tons Comoros Tons DRC Tons Zambia Tons Source: ITC Trademap. 34

37 Table 13 shows that during 2016, South Africa exported a total of tons of milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) at an average value of US$613/unit. South Africa exported greater quantities of milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) to Botswana, Lesotho and Mozambique. The greatest share of South African milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) exports were destined to Botswana which commanded 23.7% share during the year 2016 followed by Lesotho at 20.9% and then Mozambique at 15.5%. South Africa s milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) exports decreased by 6% in value and 9% in quantity between the periods 2012 and During the same period, exports of milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) to Botswana increased by 10% in value while quantity decreased by 10% and Lesotho decreased by 10% in value and 0% change in quantity. Between the periods 2015 and 2016 South Africa s exports of milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) decreased by 12% in value. During the same period, Botswana and Lesotho decreased by 1% and 2% respectively in value. 35

38 Figure 26: Growth in demand for milk and cream exports by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 36

39 Figure 26 illustrates South Africa s exports of milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) in Between 2012 and 2016 South Africa s milk and cream, not concentrated or sweetened to Singapore, Congo, Nigeria, Angola, Mauritius, DRC, Zambia, Tanzania and Zimbabwe were growing at a rate that is greater than their import growth from the world. This means that South Africa is gaining the market in the mentioned countries. During the same period, South Africa s milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) exports to Botswana, Mozambique, Malawi, Namibia, Swaziland and Lesotho were growing at a rate that is less than their imports from the rest of the world. Therefore, South Africa is losing the market share in those countries. Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Lesotho represent loses in the dynamic market. Botswana experienced the highest growth in demand of milk and cream not concentrated nor sweetened imports during the periods 2012 to Annual growth of exports to Singapore and Congo was 137% and 119% respectively. 37

40 Figure 27: Prospects for market diversification for milk and cream exported by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 38

41 South Africa is currently exporting large quantities of milk and cream, not concentrated nor sweetened to Botswana, and it has a market share of 23.67% of South Africa s exports (see Figure 27). South Africa exports to Botswana are less than that of the world. South Africa can penetrate Nigeria import market because its annual growth stands at 32%. If South Africa wishes to diversify its exports of milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened), Malawi is the other fastest growing market n annual imports growth of 20%. 39

42 Milk and cream, concentrated or sweetened Table 14: List of importing markets for the product exported by South Africa in 2016 South Africa's exports represent 0.3% of world exports for milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened), its ranking in world exports is 35. Select your indicators Importers Value exported in 2016 (USD thousand) Trade balance 2016 (USD thousand) Share in South Africa's exports (%) Quantity exported in 2016 Quantity unit Unit value (USD/unit) Growth in exported value between (%, p.a.) Growth in exported quantity between (%, p.a.) Growth in exported value between (%, p.a.) Ranking of partner countries in world imports Share of partner countries in world imports (%) Total imports growth in value of partner countries between (%, p.a.) Average tariff (estimated) faced by South Africa (%) World Tons Botswana Tons Namibia Tons Mozambique Tons Swaziland Tons Zimbabwe Tons Lesotho Tons Zambia Tons Angola Tons DRC Tons Tanzania Tons Malawi Tons Mali Tons Congo Tons Source: ITC calculations based on COMTRADE statistics. 40

43 Table 14 shows that during 2016 South Africa exported a total of tons of milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) at an average value of US$ 1 075/unit. South Africa exported greater quantities of milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) to Botswana, Namibia and Mozambique. The greatest share of South African milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) exports were destined to Botswana which commanded 35.1% share during the year 2016 followed by Namibia with 17.4% then Mozambique with 8.6%. South Africa s milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) exports decreased by 14% in value and 40% in quantity between the periods 2012 and During the same period, exports of milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) to Botswana decreased by 20% in value and 43% in quantity and Namibia decreased by 8% in value and 7% in quantity during the period 2012 to Between the periods 2015 and 2016, South Africa s exports of milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) decreased by 4% in value. During the same period, Botswana and Namibia experienced an increase of 6% and 10% respectively. 41

44 Figure 28: Growth in demand for sweetened milk and cream exported by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 42

45 Figure 28 illustrates that South Africa s exports of milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) represent 0.3% of world exports. Between 2012 and 2016, South Africa s milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) exports to Zambia, Swaziland, Lesotho and Malawi were growing at a rate that is less than their imports growth from the world. During the same periods, South Africa was gaining the market shares of milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) exports to Seychelles, Tanzania, Congo, Mauritius, DRC, Angola, Mali, Namibia, Mozambique, Botswana and Zimbabwe because imports from South African were growing at a rate that is greater than their imports from the rest of the world. Countries which have the most imports growing demand of South African Milk and Cream (Concentrated and sweetened) are Seychelles and Tanzania with the annual exports growth of 111% and 122% respectively. 43

46 Figure 29: Prospects for market diversification for sweetened milk and cream exported by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 44

47 Most of South African milk and cream (concentrated and sweetened) were destined to Botswana. However, this country imported more from South Africa than the rest of the world (see Figure 29). South Africa can either penetrate Seychelles import market or diversify to Colombia. China, Hong Kong is the biggest market of milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) in the world, with the world s imports market share of 8.85%. 45

48 Buttermilk and yoghurt Table 15: List of importing markets for Buttermilk and yoghurt exported by South Africa in 2016 South Africa s exports represent 1% of world exports for Buttermilk and yoghurt, its ranking in world exports is 20. Select your indicators Importers Value exported in 2016 (USD thousand) Trade balance 2016 (USD thousand) Share in South Africa's exports (%) Quantity exported in 2016 Quantity unit Unit value (USD/unit) Growth in exported value between (%, p.a.) Growth in exported quantity between (%, p.a.) Growth in exported value between (%, p.a.) Ranking of partner countries in world imports Share of partner countries in world imports (%) Total imports growth in value of partner countries between (%, p.a.) Average tariff (estimated) faced by South Africa (%) World Tons Botswana Tons Angola Tons Mozambique Tons Namibia Tons Swaziland Tons Lesotho Tons Zambia Tons Zimbabwe Tons Malawi Tons Equatorial Guinea Tons DRC Tons Seychelles Tons Nigeria Tons Comoros Tons Source: ITC Trademap. 46

49 Table 15 shows that during 2016 South Africa exported a total of tons of buttermilk and yoghurt at an average value of US$ 1 172/unit. South Africa exported greater quantities of buttermilk and yoghurt to Botswana, Angola and Mozambique. The greatest share of South African buttermilk and yoghurt exports were destined to Botswana which commanded 26.6% share during the year 2016 followed at by Angola and Mozambique with 18.7% and 18.4% respectively. South Africa s buttermilk and yoghurt exports have decreased by 6% in value and 6% in quantity from 2012 to During the same period, exports of buttermilk and yoghurt to Botswana increased by 4% in value and 0% change in quantity; Mozambique increased by 23% in value and 26% in quantity. Between the periods 2015 and 2016, South Africa s exports of buttermilk and yoghurt increased by 5% in value. During the same period, Botswana increased by 12% while Angola and Mozambique decreased by 5% and 1% respectively in value. 47

50 Figure 30: Growth in demand for buttermilk and yogurt exported by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 48

51 Figure 30 illustrates that South Africa s exports of buttermilk and yoghurt represent 1% of the world exports in South Africa was losing the market share of buttermilk and yoghurt in Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, Lesotho, Nigeria, Angola and Ghana because its exports were growing at a rate that is less than their import growth from the rest of the world. During the same periods, South Africa s buttermilk and yoghurt exports to United Arab Emirates, Democratic Republic of Congo, Congo, Botswana, Malawi and Swaziland were growing at a rate that is greater than their imports from the rest of the world. Therefore, South Africa is gaining the market share in these countries. The fastest growing market of South African buttermilk and Yogurt exist in Congo with the annual South African exports of 38%. 49

52 Figure 31: Prospects for market diversification for buttermilk and yogurt exported by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 50

53 South Africa s exports of buttermilk and yoghurt are dominant in Botswana. If South Africa wishes to diversify its exports the most attractive markets will be Comoros and Congo (see Figure 31). Their growth of imports from the world is at 30% and 19% respectively. 51

54 Whey and other natural milk products Table 16: List of importing markets for whey and natural milk exported by South Africa in 2016 South Africa's exports represent 0.3% of world exports for whey and natural milk and its ranking in world exports is 34. Select your indicators Importers Value exported in 2016 (USD thousand) Trade balance 2016 (USD thousand) Share in South Africa's exports (%) Quantity exported in 2016 Quantity unit Unit value (USD/unit) Growth in exported value between (%, p.a.) Growth in exported quantity between (%, p.a.) Growth in exported value between (%, p.a.) Ranking of partner countries in world imports Share of partner countries in world imports (%) Total imports growth in value of partner countries between (%, p.a.) Average tariff (estimated) faced by South Africa (%) World Tons Japan Tons Namibia Tons Botswana Tons Lesotho Tons Zambia Tons Zimbabwe Tons HK, China Tons DRC Tons Swaziland Tons Indonesia Tons Saint Helena Tons Nigeria Tons Malawi Tons Mozambique Tons Source: ITC Trademap. 52

55 Table 16 shows that during 2016 South Africa exported a total of tons of whey and natural milk products at an average value of US$2 131/unit. South Africa exported greater quantities of whey and natural milk products to Japan and Namibia. The greatest share of South African whey and natural milk products exports were destined to Japan which commanded 54.4% share during the year 2016 and Namibia taking 24.3%, followed at a distance by Botswana with 6.4%. South Africa s whey and natural milk products exports increased by 15% in value and 9% in quantity between the periods 2012 and During the same periods, exports of whey and natural milk products to Japan increased by 62% in value and 52% in quantity and Namibia experienced increases of 20% in quantity and 6% in value; while Botswana decreased by 2% in value and 30% in quantity. Between the periods 2015 and 2016, South Africa s exports of whey and natural milk products increased by 54% in value. During the same period, Japan increased by 143% while Namibia decreased by 4% and Botswana increased by 20% respectively in value. 53

56 Figure 32: Growth in demand for whey exported by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 54

57 Figure 32 illustrates that South Africa s exports of whey and natural milk products represent 0.3% of the world exports. Between 2012 and 2016 South Africa s whey and natural milk products exported to Namibia, Lesotho, Swaziland, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zimbabwe were growing at a rate that is less than their import growth from the rest of the world. Therefore, South Africa is losing the market share in the mentioned countries. During the same period, South Africa is gaining the market shares of whey and natural milk products exports in Japan, DRC, Botswana, Malawi and Zambia because their imports from South Africa were growing at a rate that is greater than their imports from the rest of the world. Saint Helena annual growth of imports of whey and a natural milk product from the world is the highest at 99% rate. 55

58 Figure 33: Prospects for market diversification for whey exported by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 56

59 The chart illustrates that Japan is the biggest importer of South African whey and natural milk products share of 54.41% (see Figure 33). The biggest market exists in Indonesia with the world import share of 3.71%. South Africa might look on developing a new market in Maldives because its annual import growth is at 148%. The fastest growing market although small exists in Saint Helena. Saint Helena s annual import growth is at 148%. Therefore, this market might be the most attractive market for South Africa s diversification. 57

60 Butter and other fats and oils derived from milk Table 17: List of importing markets for butter and other fats and oils derived from milk exported by South Africa in 2016 South Africa s export represent 0.1% of world export for butter and other fats and oils derived from milk, its ranking in world exports is 34. Select your indicators Importers Value exported in 2016 (USD thousand) Trade balance 2016 (USD thousand) Share in South Africa's exports (%) Quantity exported in 2016 Quantity unit Unit value (USD/unit) Growth in exported value between (%, p.a.) Growth in exported quantity between (%, p.a.) Growth in exported value between (%, p.a.) Ranking of partner countries in world imports Share of partner countries in world imports (%) Total imports growth in value of partner countries between (%, p.a.) Average tariff (estimated) faced by South Africa (%) World Tons Namibia Tons Mozambique Tons Botswana Tons Zambia Tons Mauritius Tons Zimbabwe Tons Lesotho Tons Tanzania Tons Malawi Tons Swaziland Tons DRC Tons Saint Helena Tons Sources: ITC Trademap. 58

61 Table 17 shows that during 2016 South Africa exported a total of tons of butter and other fats derived from milk at an average value of US$2 852/unit. South Africa exported greater quantities of butter and other fats derived from milk to Namibia, Mozambique and Botswana. The greatest share of South African butter and other fats derived from milk exports were destined to Namibia which commanded 35.5% share during the year 2016 followed by Mozambique (17.5%) and then Botswana received a share of 9.4%. South Africa s butter and other fats derived from milk exports decreased by 4% in value and 13% in quantity between the periods 2012 and During the same period, exports of butter and other fats derived from milk to Namibia decreased by 4% in value and 17% in quantity. Mozambique increased by 4% in value and 16% in quantity and Botswana decreased by 12% in value and 34% in quantity. Between the period 2015 and 2016, South Africa s exports of butter and other fats derived from butter and other fats and oils decreased by 33% in value. During the same period, Namibia decreased by 57% and Mozambique decreased by 10% in value. 59

62 Figure 34: Growth in demand for butter exported by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 60

63 Figure 34 illustrates that South Africa s exports of butter and other fats and oils represent 0.1% of the world exports. Between 2012 and 2016 South Africa s butter and other fats exported to United Arab Emirates, Mozambique, Ghana, Botswana, Angola, Lesotho and Swaziland were growing at a rate that is less than their import growth from the rest of the world. During the same period, South Africa s butter and other fats exports to Tanzania, Seychelles, Saint Helena, Mauritius, Malawi, Zambia, Namibia and Zimbabwe were growing at a rate that is greater than their imports from the rest of the world. Swaziland, Zimbabwe and Lesotho represent the declining market while Ethiopia and Tanzania represent gains in the dynamic market. The most growing demand of butter and other fats and oils exist in Ethiopia nnual imports growth of 28% per annum during the period of 2012 to

64 Figure 35: Prospects for market diversification for butter exported by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 62

65 Figure 35 illustrates that South Africa is currently exporting most of its butter and other fats to Namibia followed by Mozambique but if South Africa needs to diversify its export market, the biggest market exist in Ethiopia n annual import growth of 28% and also the fact that South Africa is currently exporting less than what Ethiopia imports from the world. 63

66 Cheese and Curd Table 18: List of importing markets for the product exported by South Africa in 2016 South Africa s exports represent 0.1% of world exports of cheese and curd, its ranking in world exports is 44. Select your indicators Importers Value exported in 2016 (USD thousand) Trade balance 2016 (USD thousand) Share in South Africa's exports (%) Quantity exported in 2016 Quantity unit Unit value (USD/unit) Growth in exported value between (%, p.a.) Growth in exported quantity between (%, p.a.) Growth in exported value between (%, p.a.) Ranking of partner countries in world imports Share of partner countries in world imports (%) Total imports growth in value of partner countries between (%, p.a.) Average tariff (estimated) faced by South Africa (%) World Tons Namibia Tons Mozambique Tons Botswana Tons Zambia Tons Zimbabwe Tons Swaziland Tons Lesotho Tons Malawi Tons Angola Tons Nigeria Tons DRC Tons Tanzania Tons Ghana Tons Uganda Tons United Arab Emirates Tons Sources: ITC Trademap. 64

67 Table 18 shows that during 2016 South Africa exported a total of tons of cheese and curd at an average value of US$3 467/unit. South Africa exported greater quantities of cheese and curd to Namibia, Mozambique and Botswana. The greatest share of South African cheese and curd exports were destined to Namibia which commanded 33.2% share during the year 2016 followed by Mozambique with 13.5% and then Botswana by 12.9%. South Africa s exports of cheese and curd decreased by 1% in value and 8% in quantity between the period 2012 and During the same period, exports of cheese and curd to Namibia decreased by 1% in value and decreased by 16% in quantity. Mozambique decreased by 1% in value and increased by 4% in quantity and Botswana decreased by 7% in value and quantity by 19%. Between the period 2015 and 2016, South Africa s exports of cheese and curd increased by 15% in value. During the same period, Namibia increased by 16%, Mozambique increased by 33% and Botswana decreased by 10%. 65

68 Figure 36: Growth in demand for cheese and curd from South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 66

69 Figure 36 illustrates that that South Africa s exports of cheese and curd represent 0.1% of the world exports. Between 2012 and 2016 South Africa is losing the market share of cheese and curd exports to Mauritius, Nigeria, Mozambique, Malawi, Seychelles, Swaziland, Botswana, Lesotho and Ghana because its exports were growing at a rate that is less than their import growth from the rest of the world. During the same period, South Africa gained the market share of cheese and curd exports to United Arab Emirates, Kenya, DRC, Zambia, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Angola, Uganda and Tanzania because these markets were growing at a rate that is greater than their imports from the rest of the world. The most growing demand for cheese and curd exist in Nigeria n annual import growth of 20%. 67

70 Figure 37: Prospects for market diversification for cheese and curd exported by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 68

71 Figure 37 shows that, Namibia, Botswana and Mozambique are the world s greatest importers of South African cheese and curd in They have shares in South African market of 33.17%, 12.9% and 13.48% respectively. If South Africa wishes to diversify, the small and fastest growing market is Ethiopia. Ethiopia s annual import growth is at 23% rate. This is the most lucrative market for South Africa. 69

72 7.2. Imports Milk and cream (neither concentrated nor sweetened) Table 28: List of supplying markets for the product imported by South Africa in 2016 South Africa s imports represent 0.1% of world imports for milk and cream (not concentrated nor sweetened), its ranking in world imports is 67. Select your indicators Exporters Value imported in 2016 (USD thousand) Trade balance 2016 (USD thousand) Share in South Africa's imports (%) Quantity imported in 2016 Quantity unit Unit value (USD/unit) Growth in imported value between (%, p.a.) Growth in imported quantity between (%, p.a.) Growth in imported value between (%, p.a.) Ranking of partner countries in world exports Share of partner countries in world exports (%) Total exports growth in value of partner countries between (%, p.a.) Average tariff (estimated) applied by South Africa (%) World Tons Poland Tons Uruguay Tons France Tons Belgium Tons United Kingdom Tons Ireland Tons Germany Tons Lesotho Tons Denmark Tons Brazil Tons Italy Tons Korea Tons Canada Tons Source: ITC Trademap. 70

73 Table 19 shows that during 2016 South Africa imported a total of tons of milk and cream (not concentrated nor sweetened), at an average value of US$ 507/unit. South Africa imported greater quantities of milk and cream, (not concentrated or sweetened) from Poland, Uruguay, and France. The greatest share of South African milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) imports originated from Poland which commanded 60.2% share during the year 2016 followed at a distance by Uruguay with 32.5%. South Africa s milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) imports increased by 3% in value and 8% in quantity between the period 2012 and During the same period, imports of milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) from Uruguay decreased by 19% in value and 16% in quantity, France increased drastically in quantity by 136%. Between the period 2015 and 2016 South Africa s imports of milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) increased by 52% in value. During the same period imports of milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) from Poland to South Africa increased by 67% and Uruguay imports increased by 45% in value. 71

74 Figure 38: Competitiveness of suppliers to South Africa for unsweetened milk and cream in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 72

75 Figure 38 illustrates that South Africa s imports between 2012 and 2016 represent 0.1% of the world s imports of milk and cream, not concentrated or sweetened. During the same period, South Africa is gaining the market share of milk and cream imports from Uruguay because South Africa s import growth were growing at a rate that is greater than these countries exports to the rest of the world. The most competitive market is Uruguay because its annual export growth rate was at -21% during the period 2012 to 2016, but the biggest market exists in Germany with the world share of 17.32%. 73

76 Figure 39: Prospects for diversification of suppliers for unsweetened milk and cream imported by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 74

77 Figure 39 illustrates that Germany is not a big supplier of South Africa s market for milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) but it was the world s greatest exporter of milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) over the period 2012 to However, Germany s annual export growth is very low at -5%. South Africa can easily diversify to Germany for market development. The second attractive market exists in Korea with the annual export growth of 41%. 75

78 Milk and cream, concentrated or sweetened Table 29: List of supplying markets for the product imported by South Africa in 2016 South Africa s imports represent 0.1% of world imports for milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened), its ranking in world imports is 79 Select your indicators Exporters Value imported in 2016 (USD thousand) Trade balance 2016 (USD thousand) Share in South Africa's imports (%) Quantity imported in 2016 Quantity unit Unit value (USD/unit) Growth in imported value between (%, p.a.) Growth in imported quantity between (%, p.a.) Growth in imported value between (%, p.a.) Ranking of partner countries in world exports Share of partner countries in world exports (%) Total exports growth in value of partner countries between (%, p.a.) Average tariff (estimated) applied by South Africa (%) World Tons France Tons New Zealand Tons Belgium Tons United Kingdom Tons Germany Tons Italy Tons Netherlands Tons Malaysia Tons Ireland Tons Zambia Tons Area Nes Tons 2055 Source: ITC calculations based on COMTRADE statistics. 76

79 Table 20 shows that during 2016 South Africa imported a total of tons of milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened), at an average value of US$2 234/unit. South Africa imported greater quantities of milk and cream, (concentrated or sweetened) from France, New Zealand and Belgium. The greatest share of South African milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) imports originated from France which commanded 29.6% share during the year 2016 followed by New Zealand with 22.9% and Belgium with 10.8%. South Africa s milk and cream (not concentrated or sweetened) imports decreased by 12% in value and remained unchanged in quantity between the period 2012 and During the same period, imports of milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) from France also decreased by 8% in value and increased by 5% in quantity and New Zealand decreased by 10% in value and increased by 3% in quantity. Between the period 2015 and 2016, South Africa s imports of milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) decreased by 12% in value. During the same period, France s milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) exports to South Africa decreased by 19% in value and New Zealand increased by 83% in value during the same period. 77

80 Figure 40: Competitiveness of suppliers to South Africa for sweetened milk and cream in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 78

81 Figure 40 illustrates that between 2012 and 2016 South Africa s milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) imports from New Zealand, France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Italy and Australia were growing at a rate that is less than their export growth to the rest of the world. During the same period, South Africa s milk and cream, concentrated or sweetened imports from Belgium, Ukraine, Malaysia and United Kingdom were growing at a rate that is greater than their exports to the rest of the world. Botswana is the biggest competitive market n annual growth of 53%. 79

82 Figure 41: Prospects for diversification of suppliers for sweetened milk and cream imported by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 80

83 Figure 41 illustrates that Italy is neither the biggest supplier of South Africa s market for milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened) nor the main world exporter. Its share in world exports was at 0.23% per annum over the period 2012 to 2016, n annual growth rate of 7%. Italy is therefore the biggest prospective supplier for South Africa s milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened). The chart also shows that Botswana is the second prospective import market due to its annual exports growth rate of 53% during 2012 to It represents a small possible supplier for South Africa s milk and cream (concentrated or sweetened). 81

84 Buttermilk and yoghurt Table 21: List of supplying markets for the product imported by South Africa in 2016 South Africa s imports represent 0.1% of world imports for Buttermilk and yoghurt, its ranking in world s imports is 71. Select your indicators Exporters Value imported in 2016 (USD thousand) Trade balance 2016 (USD thousand) Share in South Africa's imports (%) Quantity imported in 2016 Quantity unit Unit value (USD/unit) Growth in imported value between (%, p.a.) Growth in imported quantity between (%, p.a.) Growth in imported value between (%, p.a.) Ranking of partner countries in world exports Share of partner countries in world exports (%) Total exports growth in value of partner countries between (%, p.a.) Average tariff (estimated) applied by South Africa (%) World Tons France Tons Germany Tons United Kingdom Tons Ireland Tons Swaziland Tons New Zealand Tons Belgium Tons USA Tons Netherlands Tons Italy Tons Lesotho Tons Spain Tons Greece Tons Area Nes Tons 1500 Source: ITC calculations based on COMTRADE statistics. 82

85 Table 21 shows that during 2016 South Africa imported a total of tons of buttermilk and yoghurt, at an average value of US$1 635/unit. South Africa imported greater quantities of milk and cream, (concentrated or sweetened) from France, Germany and United Kingdom. The greatest share of South African buttermilk and yoghurt imports originated from France which commanded 29.9% share during the year 2016 followed by Germany with 20.4% and United Kingdom with 15%. South Africa s buttermilk and yoghurt imports decreased by 8% in value and increased by 7% in quantity between the period 2012 and During the same period, imports of buttermilk and yoghurt from France also decreased by 12% in value and increased by 4 in quantity and imports from Germany decreased by 1% in value and increased by 4% in quantity during the same period. Between the periods 2015 and 2016, South Africa s imports of buttermilk and yoghurt increased by 18% in value. During the same period, France s buttermilk and yoghurt exports increased by 150%, Germany decreased by 1% while United Kingdom decreased by 25%. 83

86 Figure 42: Competitiveness of suppliers to South Africa for buttermilk and yogurt in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 84

87 Figure 42 illustrates that between 2012 and 2016 South Africa s buttermilk and yoghurt imported from France, Italy, Thailand, Belgium, New Zealand and Netherland were growing at a rate that is less than their export growth to the world. During the same period, South Africa s buttermilk and yoghurt imports from United States of America, Ireland, United Kingdom, Greece and Germany were growing at a rate that is greater than their exports to the rest of the world. Germany is the most competitive market during the period 2012 and 2016 due to its world market share of 22.04%. 85

88 Figure 43: Prospects for diversification of suppliers for buttermilk and yogurt imported by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 86

89 France is the biggest supplier of buttermilk and yoghurt and has a share of 29.92% of South African s imports (see Figure 43). France has an annual export growth of -8%. South Africa can diversify to the fastest growing markets of buttermilk and yoghurt in Lesotho n annual export growth of 53%. 87

90 Whey and other natural milk products Table 22: List of supplying markets for the product imported by South Africa in 2016 South Africa s imports represent 0.4% of world s imports for whey and natural milk products; its ranking in world imports is 36. Select your indicators Exporters Value imported in 2016 (USD thousand) Trade balance 2016 (USD thousand) Share in South Africa's imports (%) Quantity imported in 2016 Quantity unit Unit value (USD/unit) Growth in imported value between (%, p.a.) Growth in imported quantity between (%, p.a.) Growth in imported value between (%, p.a.) Ranking of partner countries in world exports Share of partner countries in world exports (%) Total exports growth in value of partner countries between (%, p.a.) Average tariff (estimated) applied by South Africa (%) World Tons France Tons USA Tons Germany Tons Argentina Tons Netherlands Tons Denmark Tons Belgium Tons Ireland Tons Estonia Tons United Kingdom Tons Hungary Tons New Zealand Tons Source: ITC Trademap. 88

91 Table 22 shows that during 2016 South Africa imported a total of tons of whey and natural milk products, at an average value of US$1 951/unit. South Africa imported greater quantities of whey and natural milk products from France, United States of America and Germany. The greatest share of South African whey and natural milk products imports originated from France which commanded 53.8% share during the year 2016 followed by United States of America with 16.3% and Germany with 9.3%. South Africa s whey and natural milk products imports decreased by 15% in value and 16% in quantity between the period 2012 and During the same period, imports of whey and natural milk products from France decreased by 9% in value and increased by 4% in quantity. Imports from United States of America has decreased by 15% in value and 13% in quantity. Germany experienced no change in value and increased by 3% in quantity during 2012 to Between the period 2015 and 2016 South Africa s imports of whey and natural milk products experienced a decrease of 44% in value. During the same period, France whey and natural milk products exports to South Africa decreased by 35% in value while imports from United States of America decreased by 39% in value. 89

92 Figure 44: Competitiveness of suppliers to South Africa for whey in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 90

93 Figure 44 illustrates that between 2012 and 2016 South Africa s whey and natural milk products imported from Argentina, USA, Denmark, United Kingdom, Ireland, France and New Zealand were growing at a rate that is less than their export growth to the rest of the world. During the same period, South Africa s whey and natural milk products imported from Netherlands, Belgium and Germany were growing at a rate that is greater than their exports to the rest of the world. The most competitive supplier of whey and natural milk products is Denmark which has an annual export growth of 7% followed by United Kingdom with 2%. 91

94 Figure 45: Prospects for diversification of suppliers for whey imported by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 92

95 South Africa is already importing from the biggest exporters of whey and natural milk products which are USA, France and Germany. USA has a world market share of 15.35%. France has 13.09% while Germany has a world market share of 11.82% during They have share of South Africa s import market of 16.3%, 53.85% and 9.32% respectively. 93

96 Butter and other fats and oils derived from milk Table 23: List of supplying markets for the product imported by South Africa in 2016 South Africa s imports represent 0.3% of world imports for butter and other fats and oils derived from milk, its ranking in world s imports is 51. Select your indicators Exporters Value imported in 2016 (USD thousand) Trade balance 2016 (USD thousand) Share in South Africa's imports (%) Quantity imported in 2016 Quantity unit Unit value (USD/unit) Growth in imported value between (%, p.a.) Growth in imported quantity between (%, p.a.) Growth in imported value between (%, p.a.) Ranking of partner countries in world exports Share of partner countries in world exports (%) Total exports growth in value of partner countries between (%, p.a.) Average tariff (estimated) applied by South Africa (%) World Tons New Zealand Tons Ireland Tons Denmark Tons United Kingdom Tons France Tons Netherlands Tons Belgium Tons India Tons Italy Tons Greece Tons Namibia Source: ITC calculations based on COMTRADE statistics. 94

97 Table 23 shows that during 2016 South Africa imported a total of tons of butter and other fats, at an average value of US$3 188/unit. South Africa imported greater quantities of butter and other fats from New Zealand, Ireland and Denmark. The greatest share of South African butter and other fats imports originated from New Zealand, which commanded 49.7% share during the year 2016, followed by Ireland by 33.8% and Denmark by 6.4%. South Africa s butter and other fats imports decreased by 3% in value and increased by 2% in quantity between the period 2012 and During the same period, imports of butter and other fats from New Zealand decreased by 7% in value and 1% in quantity while Ireland increased by 8% in value and 18% in quantity. Denmark increased by 9% in value and 15% in quantity. Between the periods 2015 and 2016, South Africa s imports of butter and other fats increased by 16% in value. During the same period, New Zealand s butter and other fats exports to South Africa decreased by 4% in value while imports from Ireland increased by 124%. 95

98 Figure 46: Competitiveness of suppliers to South Africa for butter in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 96

99 Figure 46 illustrates that between 2012 and 2016 South Africa s butter and other fats imported from New Zealand, Belgium and Italy were growing at a rate that is less than their export growth to the rest of the world. During the same period, South Africa s butter and other fats imports from Denmark, France, Ireland, Netherlands and United Kingdom were growing at a rate that is greater than their exports to the rest of the world. Netherlands is the most competitive supplier of butter and other fats because its world market share is 15.73% and its annual exports growth increased by 5% and its annual growth of butter and other fats to South Africa was 142% 97

100 Figure 47: Prospects for diversification of suppliers for butter imported by South Africa in 2016 Source: ITC Trademap 98

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