1 GLOBAL DAIRY Market Outlook August 19, PRICE TREND - SMP, WMP, CHEESE, BUTTER, WHEY* ($/MT) 1600 WHEY SMP WMP CHEESE BUTTER Whey WMP, SMP, cheese, butter 700 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q *Mid-point of range. Milk powder, cheese and butterfat are Oceania; whey is Western Europe. Source: USDA's Dairy Market News. Production and stocks a heavy burden By Alan Levitt and Marc Beck Following a China buying bubble and return to slower future growth, the world currently needs less milk. World dairy supplies expanded the last five years on the assumption that uninterrupted China growth was almost a sure thing, but that s no longer the case. In the first half of the year, China dairy imports on a milkequivalent basis were down 35 percent from last year, led by a 56-percent drop-off in WMP buys. That pushed 2.7 million tons of milk back onto the world market. CURRENT PRICE AVERAGES - USDEC sources $/MT, FOB SHIP (with change from mid-july) SMP WMP Cheddar Butter Butteroil Dry whey WPC-34% Lactose EUROPE OCEANIA 1825 (-50) 1500 (-425) 2050 (-250) 1575 (-525) 3225 (-75) 2925 (-325) 2925 (-200) 2650 (-225) 3225 (-225) 2900 (-175) 825 (-63) 925 (-88) 1625 (-125) 2100 (-100) 600 (-25) 625 (-25) China imports, while no doubt significant over the long haul, have shifted into a lower gear. Domestic milk production is estimated to be up about 4 percent in the first half of his year (another 650,000 tons of milk in H1), and this excess milk is being diverted into powder, keeping inventories high. As a result, China has little need for substantial new imports. We think these stocks will remain excessive through at least Q In addition, Russia, once a buyer of 2-3 million tons milk equivalent per year from the EU, is now taking nothing from Europe. Source: USDEC. These developments affect product mix. Europe is steering production toward SMP and butter to offset the loss of the Russia market. New Zealand is pushing production toward SMP and cheese to offset the slowdown in the China market for WMP. That s turned up the volume on competition for the United States in key products and markets. So far, milk production has not responded to lower commodity prices. European production continues to expand, SMP is moving into intervention, and manufacturers stocks in both Europe and the United States are excessive. As a result, we don t foresee the market tightening significantly before H It will take at least that long to reverse the ill-timed milk production surge and work down inventories. In the meantime, conditions for U.S. exporters will remain especially challenging. Besides the heavy competition brought by excess supply, U.S. exporters are disadvantaged by a U.S. dollar that has strengthened across the board and internal cheese and butter prices that have moved well-above global indicators on the back of favorable domestic demand Wilson Blvd., Suite 400 Arlington, VA USA PHONE FAX usdec.org Managed by Dairy Management Inc.
2 GLOBAL DAIRY MARKET OUTLOOK 2 Other Key Indicators... SMP and WMP prices are at their lowest in more than a decade about half of what they were a year ago. Cheese, butter and whey are at six-year lows down percent from last year. (See World Prices, p. 8.) In the second quarter, milk production/delivery from the five major suppliers (EU-28, United States, New Zealand, Australia and Argentina) was up approximately 2.0 percent from last year. EU-28 deliveries were up about 2.1 percent, led by a 12-percent gain from Ireland and a 6-percent gain from the Netherlands. Meanwhile, U.S. production was up 1.4 percent, New Zealand was up 9.2 percent, Australia was up 1.4 percent and Argentina was estimated to be up 2 percent. (See Global Milk Production, p. 7.) Despite rising production, exports from the major suppliers slowed in the second quarter. Shipments of milk powder, cheese, butterfat and whey in Q2 were down 4 percent compared with a year earlier. EU-28 shipments were off 1 percent, U.S. exports were down 10 percent, New Zealand was down 9 percent and Argentina was down 1 percent. This was offset slightly by a 17- percent increase from Australia. (See World Dairy Exports, p. 3.) Second-tier importers increased purchases in early 2015, but activity has slowed this summer. Buying interest is weak, with most users covered for Q3 and negotiating for Q4 and into In the first half of the year, Japan imports of milk powder, cheese, butterfat and whey were up 17 percent, South Korea purchases were up 16 percent and Thailand imports were up 22 percent from the year before. Mexico imports in January-May were up 16 percent, while Malaysia and Philippines purchases were up 25 percent and 16 percent, respectively. Egypt imports in the first four months were up 42 percent. (See World Dairy Imports, p. 5.) TOTAL MILK PRODUCTION FROM MAJOR EXPORTERS (000 MT) 24,500 23,700 22,900 22,100 21,300 20,500 Includes EU-28, U.S., New Zealand, Australia and Argentina. EU and Argentina are milk deliveries. 30-day months. June-September are USDEC estimates/forecasts. Source: USDA, EuroStat, DairyAustralia, DCANZ, Argentina Ministry of Agriculture. In the last three weeks, EU-28 manufacturers offered 1,576 tons of SMP per week into intervention. Greater volumes are expected in the coming months. At current exchange rates, the intervention price for SMP is $1871/ton. The program has been extended to Sept. 30, Prices increased at the Aug. 18 GDT auction after falling for the previous 10 events. The double-digit gains were spurred, in part, by cuts in volume offered on the platform, and presaged by rallies on NZX futures in the last two weeks. However, the average winning price at the Aug. 18 event ($1974/ton) was still down 41 percent since early March. The WMP price ($1856/ton) has lost more than $1400/ton since February. On Aug. 7, Fonterra lowered its 2015/16 payout forecast to NZ$3.85/kg MS, about 40 percent lower than the average payout for the last eight years. The co-op estimates New Zealand milk production for 2015/16 will be down 2 percent. ABOUT THIS ISSUE Global Dairy Market Outlook is written and distributed by the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC), 2101 Wilson Blvd., Suite 400, Arlington, VA 22201, USA, (703) , FAX (703) , website Data is compiled and analyzed by Alan Levitt, vice president of communications and market analysis, and Marc Beck, executive vice president of strategy and insights. Analysis is supported by USDEC's network of 10 international offices. Copyright 2015 U.S. Dairy Export Council. All rights reserved by copyright owners. Reproduction of all portions of this newsletter is permitted with proper credit to U.S. Dairy Export Council. This issue of Global Dairy Market Outlook covers conditions in mid- August For up-to-date market data and commentary, visit the USDEC website at USDEC uses sources believed to be reliable but cannot warrant the accuracy of the information herein. Global Dairy Market Outlook is solely for information purposes and is not to be construed as commercial trading advice. The U.S. Dairy Export Council, primarily funded by Dairy Management Inc. through the producer checkoff, works closely with its member processors, trading companies and others to build global demand for U.S. dairy products.
3 GLOBAL DAIRY MARKET OUTLOOK 3 World Dairy Exports SMP EXPORTS % CHG % CHG EU-28 33,706 56,413 53,435-5 EU , , , U.S. 48,407 60,920 46, U.S. 265, , ,215-4 NZ 21,889 27,161 19, NZ 201, , , Australia 7,898 15,024 21, Australia 58,828 82, , India 9,490 3,314 1, India 65,514 47,720 11, TOTAL OF 5 121, , , TOTAL OF 5 794, , , WMP EXPORTS % CHG % CHG NZ 60, ,475 91, NZ 644, , ,023-8 EU-28 36,082 35,338 36, EU , , ,883-8 Argentina 13,525 8,912 8,577-4 Argentina 68,014 70,601 61, Australia 7,479 7,144 7, Australia 43,812 45,514 36, U.S. 2,758 5,223 2, U.S. 13,084 30,140 21, TOTAL OF 5 120, , ,555-8 TOTAL OF 5 950,016 1,121,931 1,017,957-9 CHEESE EXPORTS % CHG % CHG EU-28 62,120 63,899 62,024-3 EU , , , U.S. 25,585 33,823 26, U.S. 148, , , NZ 20,862 22,091 20,997-5 NZ 151, , , Australia 21,038 15,679 17, Australia 89,978 77,231 85, Argentina 3,296 4,137 3, Argentina 23,473 24,882 18, TOTAL OF 5 132, , ,667-6 TOTAL OF 5 800, , ,578-4 BUTTERFAT EXPORTS % CHG % CHG NZ 34,349 37,981 29, NZ 233, , , EU-28 7,909 10,948 16, EU-28 57,630 71,570 87, Australia 4,096 3,729 5, Australia 23,073 21,915 19,897-9 U.S. 7,510 5,893 1, U.S. 32,138 51,164 12, Argentina Argentina 7,330 6,167 4, TOTAL OF 5 54,854 59,468 53, TOTAL OF 5 353, , , * India 2015 is USDEC estimate. Source: GTIS and USDA.
4 GLOBAL DAIRY MARKET OUTLOOK 4 World Dairy Exports WHEY PRODUCTS EXPORTS % CHG % CHG EU-28 44,352 39,119 52, EU , , , U.S. 45,039 41,770 38,082-9 U.S. 245, , ,098-8 Switzerland 5,540 7,647 7, Switzerland 35,414 46,168 47, Argentina 6,268 4,279 5, Argentina 39,805 31,595 30,721-3 Australia 5,077 4,681 4, Australia 20,674 18,166 19, NZ 1,730 2,963 1, NZ 15,571 13,889 13,419-3 TOTAL OF 6 108, , , TOTAL OF 6 618, , ,559-0 LACTOSE EXPORTS % CHG % CHG U.S. 31,210 26,993 32, U.S. 178, , , EU-28 10,242 13,909 14, EU-28 67,482 87,684 86,504-1 NZ 2,057 1,811 2, NZ 11,790 9,503 10, TOTAL OF 3 43,509 42,713 50, TOTAL OF 3 257, , , AGGREGATE EXPORT VOLUME - MAJOR SUPPLIERS SMP, WMP, CHEESE, BUTTERFAT, WHEY EU NZ US AUSTRALIA ARGENTINA 360, ,000 (MT) 216, ,000 72, Source: GTIS and USDA. ACCESS TRADE DATA ONLINE Visit usdec.org/research-and-data/market-data/trade-flows
5 GLOBAL DAIRY MARKET OUTLOOK 5 World Dairy Imports SMP IMPORTS (VOLUME, MT) LATEST MONTH Prev Yr Latest Mo % CHG YEAR-TO-DATE Prev Yr Latest Yr % CHG China June 15 19,732 17, China Jan-June 151, , Mexico Apr 15 15,413 17, Mexico Jan-Apr 59,562 71, Indonesia Apr 15 15,184 14,572-4 Indonesia Jan-Apr 53,256 47, Algeria Dec 14 6,389 12, Algeria Jan-Dec , , Philippines May 15 8,377 10, Philippines Jan-May 42,665 43, WMP IMPORTS (VOLUME, MT) LATEST MONTH Prev Yr Latest Mo % CHG YEAR-TO-DATE Prev Yr Latest Yr % CHG China June 15 43,553 12, China Jan-June 530, , Venezuela Dec 14 17,217 3, Venezuela Jan-Dec , , Algeria Dec 14 10,812 12, Algeria Jan-Dec , , Singapore June 15 5,922 5,804-2 Singapore Jan-June 38,752 36,363-6 Hong Kong June 15 5,827 6, Hong Kong Jan-June 36,212 39, CHEESE IMPORTS (VOLUME, MT) LATEST MONTH Prev Yr Latest Mo % CHG YEAR-TO-DATE Prev Yr Latest Yr % CHG Japan June 15 17,945 20, Japan Jan-June 111, , U.S. June 15 12,292 15, U.S. Jan-June 67,542 85, Mexico May 15 7,725 10, Mexico Jan-May 40,013 51, So. Korea July 15 8,827 10, So. Korea Jan-Jul 54,604 66, Russia May 15 18,763 3, Russia Jan-May 115,456 15, BUTTERFAT IMPORTS (VOLUME, MT) LATEST MONTH Prev Yr Latest Mo % CHG YEAR-TO-DATE Prev Yr Latest Yr % CHG China June 15 6,685 4, China Jan-June 53,187 32, Iran June 15 3,481 4, Iran Jan-June 22,075 23, Mexico May 15 1,636 2, Mexico Jan-May 9,193 17, Morocco Mar 15 2,528 2, Morocco Jan-Mar 6,350 5, Russia May 15 7, Russia Jan-May 49,121 7, Russia excludes imports from Belarus. Source: GTIS and USDA.
6 GLOBAL DAIRY MARKET OUTLOOK 6 World Dairy Imports WHEY PRODUCTS IMPORTS (VOLUME, MT) LATEST MONTH Prev Yr Latest Mo % CHG YEAR-TO-DATE Prev Yr Latest Yr % CHG China June 15 40,336 46, China Jan-June 208, ,922-1 Indonesia Apr 15 10,454 10, Indonesia Jan-Apr 30,429 39, Mexico May 15 5,986 3, Mexico Jan-May 24,454 20, Thailand June 15 5,503 5,379-2 Thailand Jan-June 29,321 29, Japan June 15 5,297 3, Japan Jan-June 28,991 28,401-2 LACTOSE IMPORTS (VOLUME, MT) LATEST MONTH Prev Yr Latest Mo % CHG YEAR-TO-DATE Prev Yr Latest Yr % CHG China June 15 7,210 6,787-6 China Jan-June 45,711 44,667-2 NZ June 15 4,921 3, NZ Jan-June 37,654 37,560-0 Japan June 15 5,675 4, Japan Jan-June 33,906 34, AGGREGATE IMPORT VOLUME - MAJOR BUYERS SMP, WMP, CHEESE, BUTTERFAT, WHEY 225 CHINA SE ASIA-5 RUSSIA MEXICO JAPAN ALGERIA UNITED STATES 180 (000 MT) SE Asia-5 includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Russia excludes imports from Belarus. Source: GTIS and USDA. ACCESS TRADE DATA ONLINE Visit usdec.org/research-and-data/market-data/trade-flows
7 GLOBAL DAIRY MARKET OUTLOOK 7 Global Milk Production MILK PRODUCTION - CHANGE FROM PRIOR YEAR (000 MT) 1, EU-28 US NZ AUSTRALIA ARGENTINA , (400) J-11 M M J S N J-12 M M J S N J-13 M M J S N J-14 M M J S N J-15 M M (800) (1,200) * Feb 2012 adjusted for leap day. EUROPEAN UNION MILK DELIVERIES (% CHG VS. PRIOR YEAR) NEW ZEALAND MILK PRODUCTION (% CHG VS. PRIOR YEAR) Q1 Q Q1 Q Q1 Q Q1 Q Q Q1 Q Q1 Q Q1 Q Q1 Q Q AUSTRALIA MILK PRODUCTION (% CHG VS. PRIOR YEAR) ARGENTINA MILK DELIVERIES (% CHG VS. PRIOR YEAR) Q1 Q Q1 Q Q1 Q Q1 Q Q Q1 Q Q1 Q Q1 Q Q1 Q Q ACCESS MILK PRODUCTION DATA ONLINE Visit usdec.org/research-and-data/market-data/milk-production Q adjusted for leap day. Source: USDA, EuroStat, DairyAustralia, DCANZ, Argentina Ministry of Agriculture.
8 GLOBAL DAIRY MARKET OUTLOOK 8 World Prices SMP PRICES ($/MT) Prices vs. a year ago OCEANIA EUROPE US Oceania Europe U.S. SMP -54% -43% -59% WMP -43% -40% -44% Cheddar -29% -18% Butter -20% -30% -21% Whey -39% -53% ACCESS PRICING DATA ONLINE Visit usdec.org/research-and-data/market-data/prices WMP PRICES ($/MT) CHEDDAR PRICES ($/MT) 5800 OCEANIA EUROPE US 5350 OCEANIA US BUTTER PRICES ($/MT) DRY WHEY PRICES ($/MT) 6600 OCEANIA EUROPE US 1620 EUROPE US Source: USDA's Dairy Market News.
9 GLOBAL DAIRY MARKET OUTLOOK 9 Currency Exchange Rates EXCHANGE RATES RELATIVE TO U.S. DOLLAR, EXPORTING COUNTRIES INDEXED TO JAN. 1, 2013 EURO NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR AUSTRALIA DOLLAR /2 3/2 5/2 7/2 9/2 11/2 1/2 3/2 5/2 7/2 9/2 11/2 1/2 3/2 5/2 7/2 Top chart: If line is trending up, currency is strengthening vs. U.S. dollar (U.S. dollar is weakening). This is favorable for U.S. competitiveness. If line is trending down, currency is weakening vs. U.S. dollar (U.S. dollar is strengthening). This is unfavorable for U.S. competitiveness. EXCHANGE RATES RELATIVE TO U.S. DOLLAR, IMPORTING COUNTRIES INDEXED TO JAN. 1, 2013 JAPAN YEN CHINA YUAN MEXICAN PESO KOREAN WON /2 2/2 3/2 4/2 5/2 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 10/2 11/2 12/2 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 5/2 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 10/2 11/2 12/2 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 5/2 6/2 7/2 8/2 Bottom chart: If line is trending up, currency is strengthening vs. U.S. dollar (U.S. dollar is weakening). This is favorable for exports, because it increases import purchasing power. If line is trending down, currency is weakening vs. U.S. dollar (U.S. dollar is strengthening). This is unfavorable for exports, because it decreases import purchasing power. Source: Oanda.com.
10 GLOBAL DAIRY MARKET OUTLOOK 10 U.S. Exports Weak global markets challenge U.S. exporters In the face of soft global demand and strong competition, U.S. dairy exports in June had their weakest showing in four months. Suppliers shipped 154,886 tons of milk powders, cheese, butterfat, whey and lactose in June, down 15 percent from a year ago, and down 9 percent from May (daily average). Total overseas sales were valued at $451 million, down 33 percent from last year, and down 7 percent from May (daily average). Exporters had a more difficult time moving nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NDM/SMP) in June. After averaging nearly 58,000 tons per month in the previous three months, overseas sales were just 46,613 tons. This figure was down 23 percent from the prior year. Shipments to the Philippines and Pakistan were higher, but exports to most other top destinations lagged year-ago levels. Compared with last June, exports to Mexico were down 31 percent, China was down 51 percent and Middle East/North Africa region was down 79 percent. Likewise, after increasing for four straight months, whey exports pulled back in June. Total shipments were 38,082 tons, down 9 percent from a year ago, and down 18 percent from May (daily average). Compared with last year, exports of dry whey were down 10 percent and exports of whey protein concentrate were down 9 percent. Shipments of whey protein isolate were up 10 percent from year-ago levels, but still less than half of the volume sold in May. U.S. cheese exports slid for the third straight month. In June, shipments totaled 26,365 tons, compared with an average of more than 32,000 per month in February-April. Exports to South Korea (-36 percent), Japan (-57 percent) and Middle East/North Africa region (-51 percent) were significantly below a year ago. Mexico remained a bright spot, with June exports up 20 percent vs. last year. Among other products, exports of butterfat, whole milk powder and milk protein concentrate continue to lag year-ago levels. U.S. exports (on a total milk solids basis) were equivalent to 14.6 percent of U.S. milk solids production in June, bringing the year-todate percentage to 14.5 percent. Imports were equivalent to 3.8 percent of production in June, the highest of the year. U.S. Exports % CHG % CHG NDM/SMP 48,407 60,920 46, NDM/SMP 265, , ,215-4 WMP 2,758 5,223 2, WMP 13,084 30,140 21, Cheese 25,585 33,823 26, Cheese 148, , , Butterfat 7,510 5,893 1, Butterfat 32,138 51,164 12, Total Whey 45,039 41,770 38,082-9 Total Whey 245, , , Dry whey 20,751 19,563 17, Dry whey 115, , , WPC 22,426 20,164 18, WPC 121, , , WPI 1,862 2,043 2, WPI 9,482 12,263 22, Lactose 31,210 26,993 32, Lactose 178, , , MPC 3,868 3,051 2, MPC 20,581 32,111 17, Food preps (blends) 8,084 4,575 4,537-1 Aggregate volume* 172, , , Food preps (blends) 44,032 33,889 31,560-7 Aggregate volume* 948,932 1,075, , Fluid milk (000 liters) 5,273 7,034 7, Total Value (millions) * $ $ $ Fluid milk (000 liters) 39,764 46,226 45,953-1 Total Value (millions) * $ 3,110.7 $ 3,919.4 $ 2, * Aggregate volume includes the products listed above, except fluid milk. Total value includes other products in addition to the ones listed here. Source: USDA, USDEC.
11 GLOBAL DAIRY MARKET OUTLOOK 11 U.S. Exports U.S. EXPORTS VOLUME AND VALUE AGGREGATE VOLUME, SELECTED PRODUCTS* TOTAL DOLLAR VALUE 210, , Volume (MT) 146, ,000 82, Value (million $) 50, * Volume includes SMP, WMP, food preps, MPC, whey, cheese, butterfat, lactose U.S. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS AS A PERCENT OF MILK PRODUCTION 19.0 EXPORTS IMPORTS % of mik production (TSB) U.S. DAIRY EXPORTS, TOP 10 MARKETS U.S. EXPORTS AS % OF PRODUCTION (million $) Jan-Jun 15 vs. yr ago June yr ago Jan-Jun 15 yr ago Mexico $ % NDM/SMP 52% 67% 51% 54% Southeast Asia % Total cheese 6.1% 7.9% 6.7% 7.7% Canada % Butterfat 2.3% 9.3% 2.9% 11.4% China % Dry sweet whey 48% 54% 46% 63% So. Korea % Lactose 80% 58% 73% 66% Middle East/North Africa % Total milk solids 14.6% 17.2% 14.5% 16.4% Japan % South America % Oceania % Caribbean % ACCESS U.S. EXPORT DATA ONLINE Visit usdec.org/research-and-data/market-data/us-export-data Source: USDA, USDEC, National Milk Producers Federation.
12 GLOBAL DAIRY MARKET OUTLOOK 12 U.S. Exports: Monthly Volume U.S. NDM/SMP EXPORTS (MT) 64,000 56,200 48,400 40,600 32,800 25,000 U.S. CHEESE EXPORTS (MT) 38,000 32,800 27,600 22,400 17,200 12,000 U.S. BUTTERFAT EXPORTS (MT) U.S. TOTAL WHEY EXPORTS (MT) 13,000 10,600 8,200 5,800 3,400 1,000 51,000 46,400 41,800 37,200 32,600 28,000 U.S. DRY WHEY EXPORTS (MT) U.S. WPC EXPORTS (MT) 26,000 23,200 20,400 17,600 14,800 12,000 26,000 22,600 19,200 15,800 12,400 9,000 U.S. WPI EXPORTS (MT) U.S. LACTOSE EXPORTS (MT) 5,400 4,480 3,560 2,640 1, ,000 33,800 30,600 27,400 24,200 21,000 Source: USDA, USDEC.
13 GLOBAL DAIRY MARKET OUTLOOK 13 U.S. Market Situation Cheese and butter markets remain firm U.S. cheese and butter prices remain relatively firm, buoyed by good domestic sales this year, but at odds with world market prices. The CME benchmark block cheddar cheese price has been fairly steady this summer, trading in a $200/ton-range since mid-may. On Aug. 18, cheddar cheese settled at $3693/ton. Butter closed at $4762/ton, the highest since last October. In constrast, Grade A NDM settled at $1560/ton, down $435 in 10 weeks. Last week NDM fell to its lowest price since it began trading on the CME in Dry whey has weakened steadily since last August. Current pricing is $ /ton, down more than $800 in the last year, and the lowest price in more than six years. WPC and lactose prices continue to fall as well. U.S. milk production is past the seasonal peak, but still slightly ahead of last year s pace. U.S. milk production in June was 7.91 million tons, up 0.7 percent from the prior year. In the first half of the year, production in California was down 3.0 percent as farmers struggled against a severe drought. In the rest of the country, however, production was up 2.8 percent, despite milk-to-feed margins that are 40-percent worse than a year ago. In June, cow numbers nationwide were still 50,000 head higher than the year before. Gains in milk production are mostly being poured into cheese. Cheese production in the first half was up 2.1 percent vs. prior year, a growth rate just about matched by domestic consumption. However, inventories have begun to accumulate. American cheese stocks increased by 8 percent in Q2, twice the normal rate. In the first half, U.S. butter production was down 1.4 percent from the prior year, the second straight year of declines. But inventories are beginning to grow more rapidly, as domestic consumption can t make up for the loss in export sales. At the end of June, stocks represented about 49 days of use, compared with just 20 days at the end of last year. Powder production was slightly above year-ago levels in the first half, with a marked shift to manufacture nonfat dry milk (+11 percent in H1) instead of skim milk powder (-27 percent). This reflects the slowdown in powder exports, and strong domestic demand for NDM from cheese makers, who use the powder to extend yields. With less product going overseas, NDM inventories have increased to record levels. At the end of June, manufacturers held 119,000 tons of NDM in storage, up 15 percent from a year ago, and up 54 percent since the end of September. U.S. MILK PRODUCTION (000 MT; 30-DAY MOS.) U.S. NDM/SMP PROD. (MT; 30-DAY MOS.) U.S. CHEESE PRODUCTION (MT; 30-DAY MOS.) 8, , ,000 7,970 94, ,000 7,740 83, ,000 7,510 72, ,000 7,280 61, ,000 7,050 50, ,000 U.S. BUTTER PRODUCTION (MT; 30-DAY MOS.) U.S. DRY WHEY PROD. (MT; 30-DAY MOS.) U.S. WPC PRODUCTION (MT; 30-DAY MOS.) 88,000 42,000 22,500 81,400 39,200 21,300 74,800 36,400 20,100 68,200 33,600 18,900 61,600 30,800 17,700 55,000 28,000 16,500 Source: USDA, USDEC.
U.S. exported 15.5% of its milk production (TSB) in November YTD volumes +17% vs. prior year: PAGE 5 U.S. Exports NDM/SMP...2 Cheese...2 Butterfat...2 Whey Products...3 Lactose...4 WMP...4 Food Preps (Blends)...4
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GPS Leaders Conference: Global Dairy & Milk Protein Opportunities November 2016 2 If this can happen..anything can happen! 3 Topics covered + Hoogwegt Organization + US Dairy Export Update + Global Trends
Fonterra: GLOBAL DAIRY UPDATE AUGUST 2013 ISSUE TWELVE Welcome to our latest Global Dairy Update. The Update is Fonterra s commitment to continually educating and informing our farmers and wider stakeholders
Coffee market continues downward trend Since August 2017, the ICO composite indicator price has declined in each month except January 2018. The composite indicator decreased by 1.1% in March 2018 to an
Dairy Outlook December 2015 By Jim Dunn Professor of Agricultural Economics, Penn State University Market Psychology The Class III market has taken a beating lately as cheese prices have drifted down and
Welcome to our June 2014 Global Dairy Update IN THIS EDITION Fonterra Milk Collection: New Zealand 8% higher and Australia 2% lower to 31 May 2014 Business Update: Minimum Shareholding requirements for
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Volume 17 No. 5 Dairy Market R E P O R T May 2014 DMI NMPF Overview Many key milk and dairy product prices continued to set records in April. And while the dairy futures markets indicate that prices will
Coffee market ends 217/18 in surplus World coffee production in coffee year 217/18 is estimated 5.7% higher at 164.81 million bags as output of Arabica increased by 2.2% to 11.82, and Robusta grew 11.7%
39th Annual Conference Istanbul, Turkey 2013 Overview of the Manganese Industry International Manganese Institute Alberto Saavedra Market Research Manager June, 2013 Introduction Global Production Supply,
Fresh Deciduous Fruit (Apples, Grapes, & Pears): World Markets and Trade June 21 APPLES Record Production but Trade Estimate Revised Downward The world production estimate for 29/1 is virtually unchanged
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DEVELOPMENTS IN STEEL SCRAP IN 2009 AMERICAN SCRAP COALITION WASHINGTON, DC DEVELOPMENTS IN STEEL SCRAP 2009 The year 2009 demonstrated that the United States continues to experience a crisis with respect
Dairy Outlook December 2009 By Jim Dunn Professor of Agricultural Economics, Penn State University Market Psychology prices are higher than last month, especially Class IV. The outlook for dairy prices
Department of Agriculture eign Agricultural Service January Citrus: World Markets and Trade Citrus: / ecast Global Orange Production and Trade Expand Global production and trade for is forecast at. million
Coffee market ends 2016/17 coffee year in deficit for the third consecutive year The ICO composite indicator continued its downward trend that started at the end of August, averaging 124.46 US cents/lb.
Coffee market remains volatile but lacks direction Prices fluctuated significantly during August, with the ICO composite indicator dropping by 10 cents before jumping back up another 12 cents by the end
MAY 2017 GLOBAL DAIRY UPDATE New Zealand production for the 2016/17 season (from 1 June 2016) is down 2 to the end of March. US exports rate of growth is declining. New Zealand and Australia exports up
Record exports in coffee year 2017/18 Total coffee exports increased each year since 2010/11 with a new record reached in 2017/18 at 121.86 million bags, 2% higher than 2016/17. In the twelve months ending
THE GLOBAL PULSE MARKETS: recent trends and outlook CICILS/IPTIC 2004 CONVENTION 10-12 12 June 2004 Beijing, China Boubaker BENBELHASSEN Commodities and Trade Division United Nations Food and Agriculture
Monthly Economic Letter Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT After falling in the days surrounding the release of last month s USDA report, NY futures and the A Index were mostly
STANDARDIZED MILK PRICE CALCULATIONS for JUNE deliveries Company Milcobel Alois Müller Humana Milchunion eg Nordmilch Arla Foods Hämeenlinnan Osuusmeijeri Bongrain CLE (Basse Normandie) Da (Pas de Calais)
FEBRUARY 2018 GLOBAL DAIRY UPDATE Continued strong import demand for dairy in China. Latin America and Asia imports decrease. Fonterra and The a2 Milk Company form comprehensive strategic relationship.
Global Trade in Mangoes October 2014 Jim Lang Managing Director TradeData International Pty Ltd email@example.com www.tradedata.net COUNTRIES WITH MONTH IMPORT STATISTICS 1. The global market is just
Record exports from Brazil weigh heavy on the coffee market Coffee exports from Brazil reached a record high of 36.8 million bags in crop year 2014/15 (April to March), fuelled by domestic stocks and encouraged
QUARTERLY REVIEW OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY 1 The information in this document is from sources deemed to be correct. Milk SA, the MPO and SAMPRO are not responsible for the results of any
Prices for all coffee groups increased in May In May 2018, the ICO composite indicator increased by 0.7% to an average of 113.34 US cents/lb, following three months of declines. Prices for all coffee groups
DECEMBER 2017 GLOBAL DAIRY UPDATE Demand for dairy remains strong in China and Asia. Middle East and Africa and Latin America imports decline. Dairy exports from New Zealand and the USA continue to decline.
Downward correction as funds respond to increasingly positive supply outlook Coffee prices fell sharply at the end of April as institutional investors sold off their positions. The coffee market continues
2018/19 expected to be the second year of surplus Coffee year 2018/19 is expected to be the second consecutive season of surplus, as global output, estimated at 167.47 million bags, exceeds world consumption,
International Table Grape Symposium November 2014 Australian Table Grapes Jeff Scott Chief Executive Officer Australian Table Grape Industry - Snapshot There are approximately 900 table grape growers throughout
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TARIFFS AND TRADE ACCORD GENERAL SUR LES TARIFS DOUANIERS ET LE COMMERCE ACUERDO GENERAL SOBRE ARANCELES ADUANEROS Y COMERCIO RESTRICTED DPC/STAT/12/Add.20 29 September 198 9 International
Record Exports for Coffee Year 2016/17 Total exports in September 2017 reached 8.34 million bags, compared to 9.8 million in September 2016. While coffee year 2016/17 registered a decrease in its final
July marks another month of continuous low prices In July 2018, the ICO composite indicator price decreased by 2.9% to an average of 107.20 US cents/lb, which is the lowest monthly average for July since
The Importance of California Agricultural Exports: Situation, Outlook and Policy Prospects, with emphasis on the Korea Free Trade Agreement California Fresh Carrot Advisory Board 11 Research hsymposium
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P E C A N R E P O R T Agricultural Marketing Service 16 Forest Parkway Specialty Crops Programs Building 1-218 Market News Division Forest Park, Georgia 30297 Phone (404) 361-1376 FAX (404) 363-2523 Pecan
Monitoring EU Agri-Food Trade: Development until March 2018 14.000 EU28: Export to Extra-EU of Agri-Food Products 13.000 12.000 11.000 10.000 2018 2017 2015 2016 2014 9.000 8.000 7.000 6.000 Jan Feb Mar
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Overview of Global Dairy Markets United Dairymen of Idaho March 2, 2015 Dr. Marin Bozic The Big Picture vs. The Grand Challenge World Today Total animals: 17 billion Asset value: $1.4 trillion Employs:
7 December 2017 FONTERRA REVISES 2017/18 FORECAST FARMGATE MILK PRICE Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited today reduced its forecast Farmgate Milk Price for the 2017/18 season from $6.75 to $6.40 per kgms
Monthly Economic Letter Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT NY futures experienced volatility recently, with the net effect being a slight increase in prices. The A Index also
Business Update DECEMBER 2018 Disclaimer This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and projections. There can be no certainty of outcome in relation to the matters to which the forward-looking
Volatility returns to the coffee market as prices stay low Daily coffee prices hit their lowest level in 19 months during August, as commodity markets worldwide were negatively affected by currency movements
APRIL 2017 GLOBAL DAIRY UPDATE EU milk production remains soft but the rate of decline is easing. New Zealand production in February is relatively flat. Fonterra demonstrates its innovative Foodservice
Coffee market recovers slightly from December slump After reaching its lowest level in 22 months in December 2017, the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price increased by 1.4% to 115.60 US
Monitoring EU Agri-Food Trade: Development until September 2018 September 2018: Slowdown in EU export performance; imports from Brazil and US still on the rise The monthly value of EU agri-food trade in