Outline. o Global Dairy Overview o U.S Milk Production o Dairy Product Production, Stocks, Trade o Outlook 12/7/2016

Transcription

1 Outline o Global Dairy Overview o U.S Milk Production o Dairy Product Production, Stocks, Trade o Outlook 2 1

2 A View From Abroad Germany

3 Germany 1983 Japan

4 Japan 1984 Kobe Cow Calf Show 4

5 School Tour Japan FFA Convention

6 Global Milk Production: Select Countries (in billion pounds) In Billion Pounds Source: USDA FAS Source: USDA FAS 11 Global Milk Production: Select Countries 300 (Billion Pounds) Source: USDA FAS 12 6

7 YOY Change in Milk Production: US/EU/Oceania 4,000 3,000 2,000 (Million Pounds) 1,000 Jan 13 Jun Jan 14 Jun 15 Jan Jun 16 Jan Jun (1,000) (2,000) (3,000) Source: Daily Dairy Report 13 YOY Change in Milk Production: US/EU/Oceania YOY Change in Global Milk Production (30 day month, in million lbs.) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, (500) (1,000) European Union New Zealand USA Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Source: USDA FAS 14 7

8 Global Dairy Product Production and Exports Trade Production SMP WMP Butter Cheese Billion Pounds Source: USDA FAS 15 Global Dairy Product Production and Exports Butter Cheese 12,000 Production Exports 25,000 Production Exports 10,000 20,000 (Million Lbs.) 8,000 6,000 (Million Lbs.) 15,000 10,000 4,000 2,000 5,000 India EU 28 U.S. N.Z. EU 28 U.S. Aus N.Z. Source: USDA FAS

9 Global Dairy Product Production and Exports Nonfat Dry Milk Whole Milk Powder 4,000 Production Exports 3,500 Production Exports 3,500 3,000 3,000 2,500 (Million Lbs.) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, (Million Lbs.) 2,000 1,500 1, U.S. EU 28 India N.Z. Aus NZ China EU 28 Brazil Arg. Source: USDA FAS U.S. Milk Production 9

10 U.S. Milk Production By State: September 16 Year over year Percentage Change 3 Source: Daily Dairy Report 19 September YTD Change in Milk Production Year over year Percentage Change 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% SD MI NY WI CO ID IN KS IA TX MN VT OR AZ PA IL OH WA CA VA NM UT FL Source: USDA 20 10

11 U.S. Milk Production Data at a Glance U.S. WPI Milk 90 (30 day Production month) (30 day month, in million lbs.) WPI U.S. 90 Milk (30 day Production Per month) Cow (30 day month, in lbs.) 20,000 1,950 18,000 1,900 16,000 1,850 14,000 1,800 12,000 1,750 10,000 1,700 Monthly U.S. Dairy Cattle Slaughter (30 day month, in 1,000 head) U.S. WPI U.S. Milk 90 Dairy (30 day Production Cows month) (in million head) Source: USDA 21 Income Over Feed Key States Regional Dairy Production Margin (in $ per cwt.) Regional Dairy Production Margin (in $ per cwt.) $12 $9 $6 $3 $10.88 California $6.40 $6.58 $5.65 $4.31 $7.19 $7.68 $18 $15 $12 $9 $6 $3 $14.35 $9.84 Wisconsin $8.99 $8.83 $6.60 $10.85 $10.03 $ Jan/Feb 16Mar/Apr May/Jun Jul/Aug Sep $ Jan/Feb 16Mar/AprMay/Jun Jul/Aug Sep Regional Dairy Production Margin (in $ per cwt.) Regional Dairy Production Margin (in $ per cwt.) $15 $12 $9 $6 $3 $12.42 $7.84 $7.55 Idaho $6.90 $5.61 $8.63 $9.55 $18 $15 $12 $9 $6 $3 $14.50 $8.87 New York $7.92 $7.16 $6.11 $7.96 $9.29 $ Jan/Feb 16Mar/AprMay/Jun Jul/Aug Sep $ Jan/Feb 16Mar/AprMay/Jun Jul/Aug Sep 22 11

12 Dairy Product Production, Stocks & Exports Butter Production & Stocks U.S. Butter Production (in million lbs.) U.S. Butter Stocks (in million lbs.) Source: USDA 24 12

13 Butter & Milkfat Exports and Imports U.S. Butter U.S. WPI Butter 90 & (30 day Milkfat Imports month) Exports (30 day (in million lbs.) lbs.) (30 day month, in million lbs.) U.S. WPI Butterfat 90 (30 day Imports month) (30 day (in million lbs.) lbs.) (30 day month, in million lbs.) Source: USDA 25 American Cheese Production & Stocks American Cheese (30-day month, in million lbs.) U.S. American WPC Stocks WPC WPI 90 ( % of Cheese (30 day American month) Stocks Protein) Cheese (30 day (in (in month, million in million lbs.) lbs.) Source: USDA 26 13

14 Cheese Exports and Imports U.S. WPI Cheese 90 (30 day &Curd & month) Exports (30 day (in million lbs.) lbs.) (30 day month, in million lbs.) U.S. WPI Cheese 90 (30 day &Curd month) Imports (30 day (in million lbs.) lbs.) (30 day month, in million lbs.) Source: USDA 27 NDM/SMP Production & Stocks U.S. NDM U.S. WPI US Lactose Milk and 90 Lactose (30 day SMP Production Supply Stocks month) Production (30-day (30 day month, (in million in lbs.) million lbs.) lbs.) U.S. Manufacturers' U.S. WPI US Lactose Milk 90 Lactose (30 day Production Supply Stocks month) of NDM (30 day (in (in month, million in million lbs.) lbs.) Source: USDA 28 14

15 NDM/SMP Exports 160 Million Pounds Source: USDA 29 NDM Exports and Global Prices U.S. NDM/SMP U.S. WPI Exports Lactose 90 (30 day YTD Exports month) Sept: Key Markets (30 day (in million lbs.) lbs.) (30 day month, in million lbs.) World Weekly SMP Price International Price for SMP (in USD per lb.) Mexico Philippines Indonesia Malaysia China Oceania German GDT NDPSR eq SMP $1.75 $1.50 $1.25 $1.00 $0.75 $0.50 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Source: USDA 30 15

16 Global Cheese & Butter Prices Weekly World Cheese Price Title (in USD per lb.) Weekly World Butter Prices (in USD per lb.) $2.00 Oceania German (Edam) CME Block $3.40 Oceania German CME GDT $2.90 $1.60 $2.40 $1.90 $1.20 $1.40 $0.80 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 $0.90 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Source: Daily Dairy Report 31 Cheese and Butter Price Outlook Cheese Futures (in USD per lb.) Butter Futures (in USD per lb.) $2.00 Futures 11/9/16 5 year avg $2.50 Futures 11/9/16 5 year avg $1.80 $2.25 $2.00 $1.60 $1.75 $1.40 Nov Jan 17 Mar May Jul Sep Nov $1.50 Nov Jan 17 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Source: Daily Dairy Report 32 16

17 CME Block Cheddar Prices 33 Class III and IV Price Outlook $20 $18 $16 $14 Class III Milk (in USD per cwt.) Futures as of 11/ Forecast Series4 $12 JAN 16 APR JUL OCT JAN 17 APR JUL OCT Futures as of 11/ Forecast 5 Year Avg $20 $18 $16 $14 Class IV MIlk (in USD per cwt.) $12 JAN 16 APR JUL OCT JAN 17 APR JUL OCT Source: Daily Dairy Report 34 17

18 Outlook Summary Bearish Factors o Weak global demand driven by China and Russia (and other oil economies) o Stronger US$ vs. Euro hinders U.S. powder exports o European output rebounds in 2Q 2017 o European Intervention Stocks o Upper Midwest to Northeast milk supplies remain robust Bullish Factors o Price Convergence: Reduced Imports and Increased Exports o Domestic demand remains robust o IF there is extensive implementation of base programs by U.S. dairy cooperatives from the Upper Midwest through the Northeast o Weather Uncertainty All Rights Reserved 35 18