Overview. U.S. Dry Bean Market Update: 2017 U.S. Dry Bean Market Update: U.S. Production 7/21/2017

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Jennifer Stephens
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1 7/1/17 Overview U.S. Dry Bean Market Update: 17 U.S. Dry Bean Market Update: 13 U.S. Dry Bean Convention Dr. Suzanne Horseshoe Thornsbury Bay, TX and Hodan July 3-5, Farah Wells 17 U.S. Dry Bean Convention Chicago, IL July 3, 13 The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of USDA or the Economic Research Service. U.S. Production World Production U.S. Trade Dry Beans by Class Grower Prices Summary Forecast 17 U.S. Dry Bean Crop at a Glance U.S. Production Production 3.39 million cwt Area planted 1. million acres Area harvested 1.77 million acres Yield cwt/acre Larger crop than in 1: Area planted and harvested up significantly. and 13.3 percent, rspv. ERS-projected yields-down 3 percent Forecast production, up percent 1

2 7/1/17 U.S. Dry Beans: Acres Harvested 17f: Harvested acres increase~13% U.S. Dry Bean Average Yield 17f: decrease 3% Million acres... Bags (cwt)/acre Trend, 191-1p Trend Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 17 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 1 values are preliminary. Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 17 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 1 values are preliminary. 5 U.S. Beans: Yield p U.S. Dry Bean Production 17f: increase % 3. Pinto Navy Great Northern Garbanzo Black Million cwt Trend f Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 1 values are forecast and noted with an f. 17 values are preliminary. Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 17 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 1 value are preliminary. 7

7/1/17 Dry Bean Conditions Week ending 7-7-17 1 Crop Progress: Emergence 17 1 North Dakota Nebraska 1 5-year Avg. 17 1 5-year Avg.

17 Week Week 5 Week Week 7 Week Week 5 Week Week 7 Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress Data Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, State

S Dry Bean Acres and Dry Bean/Corn Price Ratio Percent Million acres. Dry bean acres planted Dry bean/corn price ratio (t-1) 1. 13. 1 11. 1 1. 9 1.

3 7/1/17 Dry Bean Conditions Week ending Crop Progress: Emergence 17 1 North Dakota Nebraska 1 5-year Avg year Avg Week Week 5 Week Week 7 1 Michigan Week Week 5 Week Week 7 Colorado 1 5-year Avg year Avg. 17 Week Week 5 Week Week 7 Week Week 5 Week Week 7 Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress Data Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, State Crop Progress and Condition Report. 9 1 U.S. Drought Monitor, May-July Ratio of Average Dry Bean Price to Corn Price U.S Dry Bean Acres and Dry Bean/Corn Price Ratio Percent Million acres. Dry bean acres planted Dry bean/corn price ratio (t-1) p Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service (price ratio) and USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (acres planted)

7/1/17 U.S. Dry Beans Trade 1/ World Production and U.S. Trade Million pounds 1 1 1 Exports Imports 1/ Calendar year basis. Source: Prepared by ERS using data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 13 1 U.

exports to top 1 markets 1% of total YTD YTD Total = million pounds for all markets; compares to mil. pounds for 15/1 1 1 1 Market Share of Major U.S. Dry Bean Import Partners 5/-1/17 1/ 1..9..7..5..3.

4 7/1/17 U.S. Dry Beans Trade 1/ World Production and U.S. Trade Million pounds Exports Imports 1/ Calendar year basis. Source: Prepared by ERS using data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 13 1 U.S. Dry Bean Exports: Top 1 Markets, 1/17 million pounds JAPAN COLUMBIA HAITI FRANCE BELGIUM ITALY DOMINICAN REPUBLIC UNITED KINGDOM MEXICO CANADA Top 1 Dry Bean Export Markets 1/17 1/ 1/17 Sept-May exports to top 1 markets 1% of total YTD YTD Total = million pounds for all markets; compares to mil. pounds for 15/ Market Share of Major U.S. Dry Bean Import Partners 5/-1/17 1/ Other China Mexico Canada 1/ 1/17 Data for September 1 May 17 Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 1/ 1/17 Data are prorated based on proportion of total imports by May 1. Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 15 1

7/1/17 S&U: Dry Beans (supply) ERS Supply and Use Tables Year Production Imports --Million lbs-- Beginning Stocks Total Supply --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- 19s 357 59 1171 357 199s

5 7/1/17 S&U: Dry Beans (supply) ERS Supply and Use Tables Year Production Imports --Million lbs-- Beginning Stocks Total Supply --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- 19s s s p f Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. 17 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 1 values are preliminary S&U: Dry Beans (utilization) Year Exports Seed Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- 19s s s p f Dry Beans by Class Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. 17 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 1 values are preliminary. 19 5

7/1/17 Dry Bean Production, by Class 17f Projected 17 Dry Bean Production, by class 9% 1% % 3% 3% 19% 15% % Navy Great Northern Black Red kidney Garbanzo Pinto Small Red Others Sources: USDA,

6 7/1/17 Dry Bean Production, by Class 17f Projected 17 Dry Bean Production, by class 9% 1% % 3% 3% 19% 15% % Navy Great Northern Black Red kidney Garbanzo Pinto Small Red Others Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Productionand USDA, Economic Research Service Projections. U.S. Pinto Beans: Production and Dealer Price 1/ Production Dealer price f 17f production increase 7%; Dealer price down 1% Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 17 values are forecast and noted with an f. 1/ Dealer Price is from Northeast Colorado. Data Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production); USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service (prices). 17 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 1 values are preliminary. 1 U.S. Pinto Beans: Trade 1/ 1/17 YTD MY exports down mil. lbs from same time in 15/1; 1/17 imports slightly up Millionlbs. 1 U.S. Pinto Beans: Total Use and Per Capita Availability Per capita Lbs/person Exports Imports 1 Total p. 1/ 1/17 Data are prorated based on proportion of total sales by May of 1. Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. 17 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 1 values are preliminary. 3

7 7/1/17 U.S. Navy Beans: Production and Dealer Price 1/ 9 7 Production 17: production decrease %; dealer price projected down ~5% Dealer price U.S. Navy Beans: Trade 1/ Exports Imports 1/17 YTD exports down 5 mil. lbs from same time in 15/1; imports up percent from a very small base f 1/ Dealer Price from Michigan Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production) and USDA, Agriculture Marketing Service (prices).17 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 1 values are preliminary. 1/ 1/17 Data is prorated based on proportion total sales made by May 1. Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 5 Million lbs U.S. Black Beans: Domestic Utilization and Per Capita Availability lbs/ capita lbs/ capita -9.5 lbs/ capita 1-1p. lbs/ capita f Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. 17 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 1 values are preliminary U.S. Black Beans: Production and Dealer Price 1/. 5. Production Dealer price / Dealer Price is from Michigan Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production) and USDA, Agriculture Marketing Service (prices). 17 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 1 values are preliminary. 7 7

8 7/1/17 U.S. Black Beans to Mexico: Share of total 1/ U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Domestic Utilization Million lbs. Lbs/person Mexico share of U.S. exports Trend f -. 1/ 1/17 share is based on sales Sept. 1-May 17 Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. 17 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 1 values are preliminary. 9 3 U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield 1, acres cwt/acre Acres planted Area Harvested Yield U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Balance of Trade, Million Pounds exports - imports f17p Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 17 values are forecast and noted with an f, 1 values are preliminary. Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 31 3

7/1/17 Average Grower Price, All Beans and Garbanzo 7. All beans Garbanzo Grower Prices. 5.. 3.. 1. 3 5 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 17 Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

9 7/1/17 Average Grower Price, All Beans and Garbanzo 7. All beans Garbanzo Grower Prices Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service $/cwt U.S. Dry Beans, All: Monthly Grower Prices $9.3 9/1 $9.57 1/11 $ /1 All Bean Price ($/CWT) $37.93 $3.13 1/13 13/1 $3.3 1/15 1/17 price is projected near $5/cwt higher than for 15/1 Grower Prices: Producer Bid Level Variety (Location) 15 1p 17 forecast Pinto (ND/MN) Black (MI) Light red kidney (MN/WI) Dark red kidney (MN/WI) Garbanzo (WA/ID) Great Northern (NE/WY) Small Red (WA/ID) Pink (WA/ID) Bid Level: Producer Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, Agriculture Marketing Service

7/1/17 Summary 1 crop: Slightly smaller crop than in 15; as in 15, sizable beginning stocks, Exports up slightly, imports down, exports up carry-out reduced Production:.71 mil. cwt; Carry-in: 1.

Trade: Exports projected up 1 million lbs; Imports raised percent. Production: 3.39 million cwt; Carry-in: 9.17 million cwt.

10 7/1/17 Summary 1 crop: Slightly smaller crop than in 15; as in 15, sizable beginning stocks, Exports up slightly, imports down, exports up carry-out reduced Production:.71 mil. cwt; Carry-in: 1.57 mil. cwt.--slightly up from crop: Projected production up near percent from 1, lifts supply despite lower year-to-year carry-in. Trade: Exports projected up 1 million lbs; Imports raised percent. Production: 3.39 million cwt; Carry-in: 9.17 million cwt. Area harvested up 13 percent; slight yield decrease (down 3 percent) 1 and 17 prices: 1 all bean price projected up ~percent from 15 Larger 17 production puts downward pressure on the 17 all dry bean price, projected down about 5 percent in out-year. Thank you Please contact Jennifer Bond for more information jkbond@ers.usda.gov/()

U.S. Dry Bean Market Update: 2018

U.S. Dry Bean Market Update: 2018 Suzanne Thornsbury and Jennifer Bond U.S. Dry Bean Convention U.S. Dry Bean Market Update: 2013 Dr. Suzanne Bonita Thornsbury Springs, FL and Hodan Farah Wells July 24,