COMCEC STRATEGY. For Building an Interdependent Islamic World. COMCEC Trade OUTLOOK th Meeting of the Trade Working Group

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1 COMCEC Trade OUTLOOK th Meeting of the Trade Working Group March 7-8, 2018 Ankara, Turkey

2 OUTLINE Trade Between the OIC Countries and the World Developments in Intra-OIC Trade Trade Facilitation in the OIC Countries

3 TRADE between the OIC and the WORLD

4 TRİLLİON US $ Total OIC exports fell by 9.2 per cent in 2016 Merchandise Exports Merchandise Imports 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, Source: : IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

5 2000: 100 Index 2000:100 Oil Price Index The total OIC exports in volume terms increased by 6.2 per cent in Brent Oil Price Index OIC Export Volume Index World Export Volume OIC Export Value Index World Export Value Index Brent Oil Prices (Right Axis) Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

6 Main Reasons Accounting for the Weak Performance of OIC Exports Continuing weakness in world economic activity Falling commodity prices in particular oil prices US dollars appretiation Ongoing political instability in the Middle East

7 Index 1990=100 Weakest growth was recorded in world trade in 2016 since the global crisis 350 Trend Source: WTO Database

8 Price Indices (2005=100) Commodity prices have been declining since Food Agricultural raw materials Metals Fuel (Energy) Source: IMF

9 dollars per barrel Oil prices declined from 52.4 $/bbl in 2015 to 44 $/bbl in Source: IMF Commodity Price Statistics

10 2007:100 Index OIC fuels exports fell sharply following the collapse in oil prices. Evolution of the OIC Fuels and Non-Fuels Exports versus Oil prices Fuels (SITC 3) Non Fuel Oil Prices Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

11 Per cent OIC Countries share in global exports have been declining since ,0 12,0 11,0 10,0 9,0 8,7 10,1 9,7 10,0 10,5 10,9 10,9 10,7 9,8 9,3 8,0 7,0 6, OIC Exports / World Exports OIC Imports / World Imports OIC Trade / World Trade Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

12 Top five OIC exporters as a whole represents 61 per cent of total OIC exports OIC Exports to World - Top Exporters (Billion Dollars) UAE Malaysia Saudi Arabia 175 Indonesia Turkey Qatar 57 Iran Iraq Kuwait Nigeria Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

13 High country concentration in extra-oic exports Major Destinations for Extra-OIC Exports (2016) Germany %2,6 Netherlands %2,5 France %2,8 China %10,3 Italy %3,4 Singapore %4,5 India %7,7 Korea %4,6 Japan %6,7 United States %7,1 Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

14 Billion Dollars Dominance of mineral fuels and oils in total OIC exports OIC Exports to World - Top 5 Items in Mineral fuels, mineral oils... Electrical machineryequipment Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semiprecious stones, Machinery, mechanical appliances, Plastics and articles thereof Source: ITC Trademap

15 Iraq Algeria Brunei Darussalam Libya Nigeria Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Qatar Kuwait Chad Gabon Saudi Arabia Oman Iran Kazakhstan Yemen Sudan UAE Per cent Share of Fuels in Total Exports, Source: UNCTADSTAT Note: Fuels includes Petroleum, petroleum products, natural gas, coke and electric current

16 Share of Commodities in Total Exports, 2016 Source: UN Comtrade (*) Includes SITC Rev 3 sectors 65 and 84

17 Manufactured products has a considerable share in some OIC countries exports Share of Manufacturing in Total Exports (per cent) Bangladesh 95 Pakistan 76 Turkey 75 Malaysia 68 Morocco 67 Indonesia 47 Egypt 46 UAE 36 Saudi Arabia 25 Source: UNCTADSTAT

18 INTRA-OIC TRADE

19 Billion $ Share of Intra-OIC trade peaked at 18.4 per cent in 2016 Per cent 450 Intra-OIC Merchandise Exports (Left Axis) 20 Intra-OIC Merchandise Imports (Left Axis) ,2 18,4 Intra-OIC Trade Volume / Total Trade Volume (%) 18, ,3 17,0 16,9 16,6 16, , , Source:IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

20 Top performers in intra-oic trade in 2016 Billion Dollars UAE 100 Turkey 64 Saudi Arabia 54 Malaysia Indonesia Iran Oman Egypt Pakistan Qatar 16 Source:IMF DOTS

21 Per cent Per cent There is a great diversity among the OIC countries in terms of intra trade shares Member States Having the Lowest Intra-OIC Trade Share Member States Having the Highest Intra-OIC Trade Share Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

22 Intra-OIC exports is more diversified Intra OIC Exports by Top 10 Items Source: ITC Trademap

23 TRADE FACILITATION

24 Many member states ranked at last places according to WB-Trading Across Borders measure Source: World Bank TAB

25 How Far are the OIC Countries from the Frontier in 2016? Source: Author calculations based on WB Doing Business Data

26 Time needed for documentary and border compliance in the OIC is above the world Source: Author calculations based on WB Doing Business Data

27 Border and documentary compliance costs in the OIC are above the world averages Source: Author s calculations based on WB Doing Business 2017 dataworld Bank

28 Border compliance times goes up to 11 days and 7 hours in Cameroon while it is 10 hours in Albania Source: World Bank Trading Across Borders

29 Border compliance costs varies substantially among Member States Source: World Bank Trading Across Borders

30 There is a gap between the OIC countries according to Logistics Performance Indicators Source: World Bank

31 Thank You 11th Meeting of the Trade Working Group March 7-8, 2018 Ankara, Turkey