Tet period: 4 weeks before the first day of Lunar New Year (4 w/e 2018/2/18)

Transcription

1 Tet period: 4 weeks before the first day of Lunar New Year (4 w/e 2018/2/18)

2 In-home purchases during Tet 2018 is estimated to reach over 45 trillion VND for total Vietnam (nearly double value of normal month) VND 6,286 bln ~2x vs normal Value for In-home Purchases Tet 2018 VND 27,090 bln URBAN 4 CITES = ~1% of Vietnam s annual GDP (2017) RURAL *Consumption of Sub-urban/ secondary cities equals 80% of that of Urban 4 cities Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Urban 4 key cities & Rural Vietnam FMCG Including Gifts Tet period: 4 weeks before the first day of Lunar New Year (4 w/e 2018/2/18)

3 Tet 2018 is on par with Tet 2017, the highest record in a few years back, in Urban 4 while continuing to pick up in Rural Urban 4 cities Rural Index vs. normal month % vs YA 11% vs YA 2% vs YA 9% vs YA 13% vs YA 14% vs YA Tet 2016: 8 Feb Tet 2017: 28 Jan Tet 2018: 16 Feb Tet 2016: 8 Feb Tet 2017: 28 Jan Tet 2018: 16 Feb Source: Kantar Worldpanel Household Panel Urban Vietnam 4 key cities & Rural FMCG including gifts Rolling 4 w/e 3

4 In Urban, consumers are trending to simplify their Tet basket Average number of FMCG categories in Tet basket over time URBAN 4 CITIES Tet 2014 Tet 2015 Tet 2016 Tet 2017 Tet 2018 Source: Kantar Worldpanel Household Panel Urban Vietnam 4 key cities & Rural FMCG excluding gifts 4

5 and turn more their attention to non-fmcg purchases which are on the rise in this hottest season TRAVEL REAL ESTATE AUTO SALES ELECTRONICS SALES +20% more tours booked compared to normal months % more transactions in October compared to previous months +8% more transactions for used cars in quarter 4 compared to quarter 3 Up to 50% discount on appliances from major retailers % 80% are international tours More purchasing/mortgage incentives (0% interest rate, 3-4% discount) Car dealerships are out of stock value spend on smartphones Upper-midrange smartphones on the rise (>10mln) Source: Hai Quan Online Ministry of Construction VnExpress Thoi Bao Ngan Hang 5

6 Meanwhile, many categories in Rural achieve impressive performance this Tet Based on Consumer Reach Points (CRP) growth RURAL Hair Colorant Hybrid Drink RTD GUM Tonic Food Drink Ice-Cream +49% +41% +41% +40% +36% Chocolate Bathroom & Toilet Cleaner Liquid Detergent +34% +33% +26% Hand Washing +25% Fruit Juice +23% Source: Kantar Worldpanel Household Panel Urban Vietnam 4 key cities & Rural FMCG excluding Gift Tet 2018 vs Tet

7 Gifting is the growth driver of Tet 2018, indicating a huge opportunity to capture. Yet, real consumption in Rural still enjoys strong growth URBAN 4 CITIES +1.5% vs last Tet RURAL +13.7% vs last Tet Real Purchase Gifting Real Purchase Gifting 67.1% (-2.0 pts vs YA) 32.9% (+2.0 pts vs YA) % Value contribution Tet % (-4.1 pts vs YA) 33.2% (+4.0 pts vs YA) -1.6% +8.3% % Value growth Tet 18 vs. Tet % +30.1% Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Urban 4 key cities & Rural Vietnam FMCG Including Gifts Tet period: 4 weeks before the first day of Lunar New Year

8 Out of total Tet value, ¾ fall in the last two weeks of Tet period. Urban consumers tend to stock up earlier (gradually from week 2) while Rural consumers delay purchase till the very last week. % Value Share among Tet % % 33% 39% 16% URBAN 4 CITIES 18% 20% % 12% 51% RURAL 14% 14% 28% 23% 24% 31% Tet week Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Urban 4 key cities & Rural Vietnam FMCG Including Gifts Tet period: 4 weeks before the first day of Lunar New Year (4 w/e 2018/2/18) 8

9 4 in 5 people receive FMCG as gift at Tet with gifting value uplifts across years. Rural areas are catching up with Urban in terms of gifting value No. of people receiving FMCG as Gift Tet 2018 Value of each gifting occasion (000 VND) % 77% URBAN 4 CITIES RURAL Tet 2016 Tet 2017 Tet 2018 Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Urban 4 key cities & Rural Vietnam FMCG Gifts only Tet

10 Top 10 most chosen categories for gifting in Tet 2018 Based on Consumer Reach Points (CRP) = Population * Penetration * Frequency URBAN 4 CITIES Cooking Aids Biscuits & Cakes Beer Carbonated Soft Drink Instant Coffee Candy Instant Noodle Snack & Nuts Loose Leaf Tea Chocolate 2.5M 2.0M 1.5M 1.3M 0.5M 0.4M 0.4M 0.3M 0.3M 0.3M RURAL Cooking Aids Biscuits & Cakes Beer Carbonated Soft Drink Instant Coffee Candy Loose Leaf Tea Instant Noodle Energy Drink RTD Tea 12.6M 10.8M 6.6M 3.7M 3.2M 2.4M 2.1M 1.3M 1.0M 0.7M Source: Kantar Worldpanel Household Panel Urban Vietnam 4 key cities & Rural FMCG Gifts only Tet

11 Top risers for gifting in Tet 2018 Based on Consumer Reach Points (CRP) Growth % URBAN 4 CITIES SNACKS & NUTS INSTANT COFFEE CHOCOLATE PROCESSED FOOD CANNED FOOD +18.1% +14.1% +12.3% +11.9% +11.9% RURAL TOOTHPASTE READY-TO-DRINK TEA INSTANT TEA FRUIT JUICE SOYA SAUCE % +53.9% +34.3% +19.3% +13.1% Source: Kantar Worldpanel Household Panel Urban Vietnam 4 key cities & Rural FMCG Gifts only Tet 2018 vs Tet

12 Upsizing trend is observed in Tet basket Top up-sizing categories (based on pack size change % vs normal month) +124% +107% +17% +17% +16% +16% +15% +15% +12% +12% URBAN 4 CITIES Confectionery Snack & nuts Processed sausage Cooking oil Powder detergent Frozen food Granules Shampoo Ketchup Hair conditioner Hair Loose leaf Ground Confectionery Liquor Snack & nuts Fruit juice Cooking oil conditioner tea coffee Granules Liquid bath RURAL +138% +95% +87% +38% +22% +21% +18% +17% +16% +15% Source: Kantar Worldpanel Household Panel Urban Vietnam 4 key cities & Rural FMCG excluding gifts Categories >5% penetration 16

13 Consumers are also willing to pay more or chose premium options for Tet celebration Top up-trading categories (based on average price change % vs normal month) +23% +19% +18% +18% +16% +16% +15% +13% +7% +5% URBAN 4 CITIES Snack & nuts Biscuits & cakes Loose leaf tea Facial cleanser Facial moisturizer Tea bag Frozen food Carbonated soft drink Ice-cream Fish sauce Hair conditioner Handwashing Carbonated soft drink Beer Powder tonic food drink Loose leaf tea Facial Fish sauce Table napkin Instant coffee moisturizer RURAL +27% +21% +20% +18% +17% +17% +14% +11% +10% +10% Source: Kantar Worldpanel Household Panel Urban Vietnam 4 key cities & Rural FMCG excluding gifts Categories >5% penetration 17

14 They even move to higher-priced channels for the diversity of choices and online shopping for convenience Modern trade performs better than traditional trade this Tet and is riding the growth Value growth vs last Tet (%) -3.2% +5.0% -1.6% +13.1% % Index Tet 2018 vs normal month General Trade Modern Trade Hyper & Super Mini Stores Online Source: Kantar Worldpanel Household Panel Urban Vietnam 4 key cities FMCG excluding Gift Tet period: 4 weeks before the first day of Lunar New Year 20

15 Which categories are driving the growth of modern channels at Tet? Category portfolio for Tet basket in H&S looks diverse, Ministores skew to Food & Beverage while Personal Care are popular items in online basket HYPER & SUPER MINISTORE ONLINE Category Ready-To-Drink Tea Liquid Detergent Ketchup Granules Box Tissue Beer Hair Conditioner Fabric Softener Facial Cleanser Cup Yogurt Category Snack & Nuts Granules Cheese Sauce Paper products Instant Noodle Ice Cream Ready-To-Drink Tea Sausage Instant Coffee Category Facial Moisturizer Liquid Detergent Shampoo Lipstick Hair Conditioner Cooking Oil Snack & Nuts Baby Diaper Source: Kantar Worldpanel Household Panel Urban Vietnam 4 key cities FMCG excluding Gift Based on Value growth Tet 2018 vs Tet

16 SUMMARY Tet 2018 is estimated to reach ~1% of total country s GDP (over 45 trillion VND) In Urban, this Tet is on par with last Tet as Urban consumers are simplifying their Tet basket and turn their attention to non-fmcg items In Rural, Tet 2018 continues to enjoy strong growth Gifting is the growth driver of Tet with value uplifts over time o Tet gifting basket for Rural nearly equals to Urban Peak time for Rural shoppers is 1 week before Tet while 2 weeks for Urban shoppers Changing behaviors: o o Up-trading in terms of both product and channel choices. Shopping basket becomes more premium Upsizing versus normal month Tet basket repertoire is diverse for Hyper & Supermarkets, while Ministores skew to Food & Beverage, and Online shopping favors Personal Care 23

17 About Kantar Worldpanel Kantar Worldpanel is the global expert in shoppers behavior. Through continuous monitoring, advanced analytics and tailored solutions, Kantar Worldpanel inspires successful decisions by brand owners, retailers, market analysts and government organizations globally. With over 60 years experience, a team of 3,500, and services covering 60 countries directly or through partners, Kantar Worldpanel turns purchase behavior into competitive advantage in markets as diverse as FMCG, impulse products, fashion, baby, telecommunications and entertainment, among many others. For further information, please visit us at Contact us Nguyen Thi Nhu Ngoc Associate Marketing Manager nhungoc.nguyenthi@kantarworldpanel.com Tel: Fax: Mob: +84 (0) Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam 58 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam