Role of RussiaandCIS on the world sugar market

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1 IKAR Dmitry Rylko General director Role of RussiaandCIS on the world sugar market Growing self-sufficiency and/or growing efficiency of the world s biggest sugar import market Brazil, October, 009

2 IKAR Key topics Russian sugar industry: key fundamentals Government regulation: escalation of sugar beet industry support State of domestic sugar beet industry State of domestic raw sugar industry Final remarks

3 Russia: the status of world biggest single country raw sugar import market Total Raw Imports RF Raw Imports / / / / /01 0 / / / / MT 0

4 (South) Brazil plays the key role in raw sugar origination Argentina Columbia Sl Salvador Guatemala Thailand Cuba North Brazil SouthBrazil 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 0% 10% Source: IKAR % Russia depends on Brazil much more than Brazil depends on Russia!

5 Russian sugar industry: key fundamentals Consumption Per capita consumption, kg The share of sugar in total calorie intake reaches 15%! Market volume, MT

6 Russian sugar industry: key fundamentals End use structure Industrial 5% Industrial 31% Ho-Re-Ca 4% Institutions Ho-Re-Ca 6% Institutions Retail 60% Not identified Non-Food Not identified Retail 5% Non-Food Gradual transition towards developed market structure: growing industrial and Ho-Re-Ca consumption

7 Russian sugar industry: key fundamentals Sugar origins, TMT Smuggling White import Syrups Raws, non quota Raws, in quota est. 0 Beet sugar Source: ISCO-IKAR

8 IKAR Since early 000 s Government: quite consistent course towards domestic sugar beet industry support and growing g self-sufficiency Support is provided in form of both import tariffs (initially) and direct subsidies (most recently) N h b i li i h l New sugar course has been in line with general «reloading» of domestic agricultural policies.

9 Raw sugar import regime: flexible rate import duty + seasonal duty when necessary USD/MT Current NYBOT Base duty step from 004, $/МТ Seasonal duty 007/08 & 008/09, $/MT Base duty from 009, $/MT c/p The higher NYBOT the lower duty, and vice versa. However after 9.0 c/p the system has basically worked as flat import duty

10 NYBOT sugar price and domestic import duty Duty model-005 Sugar #11 Sugar#11 & Duty (model 005), USD/MT Duty-fact 007/08 & 008/09 Duty-fact Source: ISCO-IKAR

11 Russian sugar industry: domestic «virtual free trade» vs. real wholesale white sugar prices Price & Cost Sugar from Raw 004/09, USD/MT Full cost of white sugar EXW-factory (Krasnodar), USD/MT Current market price, USD/MT Cost without duty It is quite expensive: end-users pay roughly $ extra per ton of white sugar in comparison with «perfect free market» situation

12 Russian sugar industry: seasonal production, cost and price 000 MT Sugar production & Cost USD/MT Beet Sugar Import White Sugar Raw Sugar Price Cost Beet Sugar Cost Raw Sugar Immediate outcomes of flexible import duty: 1. «Russian roulette» on the raw s market;. Relative profitability for domestic beet sugar farmers and integrators

13 Russian sugar margins USD/MT 400 Sugar beet margin, av. 300 Raw sugar margin, av Raw sugar, current Current sugar regime encourages sugar processors 1. To integrate into beet production;. To demand further state support for beet production Total

14 Total government support to domestic sugar beet industry, up-to-date Raw and white sugar import duties White beet sugar import quota agreement with Belarus (150 tmt of beet sugar per annum); «Lock in» status of Ukraine (treated as «non-cis country») General financial support to domestic diversified farms

15 Agricultural program: state agricultural budget outlays Federal Regional budgets budget 009 rescue ag budget: cut traditional programs by ~RUR7b, add rescue budget lines for ~RUR83b.

16 Total government support to domestic sugar beet industry, up-to-date Raw and white sugar import duties White sugar import quota agreement with Belarus (150 tmt per annum); «Lock in» status of Ukraine (treated as «non-cis country») General financial support to domestic diversified farms Subsidy on mineral fertilizers to sugar beet producers (RUR00) from 008 Subsidy to domestic sugar beet seed buyers (about 0% of the market) Potential (010) interest rate subsidy (80% of Central bank refinance rate) on R&M of sugar mills and seed plants

17 Government priorities: market share of domestic beet sugar Agricultural program (Jul. 007) 64% 65% 67% 70% 65% 57% 61% 63% 64% 65% 60% Agricultural program 55% 5% 5% 51% Fact 50% 45% 40% % 35% Draft «Food Doctrine of Russia» (009). Even more ambitious goal: 80% of domestic sugar beet self-sufficiency by 016

18 Government priorities: potential market volume for imported sugars Other 000 Sugar beet Are these goals achievable? 0

19 Technical efficiency Yields Sugar content Digestion USA EU Poland Russia , Source: Rabobank, IKAR

20 Domestic sugar beet complex: constant struggle of growing efficiency vs. growing cost of production,8,6,4,,0 Industrial inflation in Russia White sugar price RUR/USD Sugar Yield per ha 1,8 March 003=1,0 1,6 1,4 1 1, 1,0 0,8 0,6 003, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 10 Source: IKAR, Rosstat

21 Krasnodar Belgorod-Voronej Ufa-Kazan Altai RF Sugar yield, tons / ha Mt/ha 4,8 4,3 3,8 3,3,8,3 1,8 1,3 08 0,

22 Number of sugar beet farms and investment/ha Distribution ib ti of number of corporate farms per investment t category Th. RUR / ha

23 Total beet output and investment/ha Th. RUR / ha

24 Producer s profile: substantial changes The number of sugar beet corporate farms has declined from 3800 in 00 to 1400 in 008 Average sugar beet planting area per farm has increased from 00 to 640 ha Average gross beet output per farm has increased from 4.1 to 0. TMT The share of integrated producers in planted area has reached about 40%

25 Domestic sugar mills: break-downs of daily capacity, 00 and

26 Number of functioning sugar mills and average volume of sugar output TMT Number of mills Source: Soyuzrosakhar, IKAR Output Number of mills

27 Daily beet processing capacity and estimated investments into R&M TMT TMT per day Investments, RUR billion 5,4 5,9 6,1 7 6 RUR billion 4, ,6 3, ,3, , Source: Soyuzrosakhar, IKAR To be in tact with production we must keep investments into mills very high!

28 Export of sugar, molasses, and pulp, TMT Beet pulp Molasses Sugar /03 003/04 004/05 005/06 006/07 007/08 008/09 Sugar export: from 007/08 further growth of tolling is impeded by neighbor countries tolling. While pulp and molasses export are to continue to grow.

29 Raw sugar transshipment (008) To RF To other CIS Three Black Sea ports play the key role in raw s transshipment to Russia and CIS

30 Most recent announcement Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan create Customs Union Russia us type of abandoning individual WTO talks and will negotiate together with two other countries as Customs Union

31 Most recent announcement Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan create Customs Union Russia abandons individual WTO talks and will negotiate together with two other countries as Customs Union *** * * Is it realistic to achieve and keep common market? For how long the WTO accession is postponed? Will Russia keep its pre-accession agreements?

32 IKAR Final remarks Ceteris paribus, Russia will continue to gradually increase its sugar self-sufficiency, sufficiency although the speed of transformation may vary depending on affordability of further support The three countries Customs Union announcement makes the situation more uncertain and even raises question if Russia to keep (longerterm) it s WTO pre-accession arrangements. In any case substantial investments are BADLY needed to improve the efficiency of domestic vertical sugar pipelines.

33 IKAR ISCO-IKAR sugar reports

34 IKAR General director Dmitry Rylko Tel/fax:

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