Growth and Trend Position of Sugar Industry

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1 Growth and Trend Position of Sugar Industry

2 CHAPTER IV GROWTH AND TREND POSITION OF SUGAR INDUSTRY 4.1. SUGAR INDUSTRY OVERVIEW HISTORY OF SUGARCANE Sugarcane is a renewable, natural agricultural resource because it provides sugar, besides biofuel, fibre, fertilizer and myriad of by products/co-products with ecological sustainability 1. The world demand for sugar is primarily derived from sugar cane. Sugar cane accounts for eighty per cent of sugar produced and the rest is made from sugar beets. Sugarcane predominantly grows in the tropical and subtropical regions, and sugar beet predominantly grows in colder temperate regions of the world. A few merchants began to trade in sugar - a luxury and an expensive spice until the 18 th century. Before the 18 th century, cultivation of sugarcane was largely confined to India. Sugarcane plantations, like cotton farms, were a major driver of large human migrations in the 19 th and early 20 th century SUGARCANE IN INDIA Sugarcane is one of the significant cash crops. The production has grown dramatically over past several years. Sugarcane growing area in India may be broadly classified into two agro-climate regions: Region Sub - Tropical Tropical States Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, Haryana Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka Sugarcane industry was initially set up in the sub-tropical region. Till 1950s, ninety per cent of area under sugarcane was in this region. With commencement of 73

3 planning process, sugarcane found its route in tropical area. Sugarcane being a tropical crop finds favourable agro climatic conditions for its growth in this region - i.e., higher yields. Now the tropical region is already developed and reached near saturation level. The biggest state in this region, Maharashtra faces acute problem of lack of water which effects cultivation of sugarcane. The sub-tropical belt, with fertile land, high water table and irrigation, appears to be the area for future growth INDIAN SUGAR INDUSTRY OVERVIEW The Indian sugar industry is a key to the rural development, supporting India's economic growth. The industry is inherently inclusive supporting over fifty million farmers and their families, in an era where there is a need for inclusive growth; the sugar industry is amongst the few industries that have successfully contributed to the rural economy. It has done so by commercially utilising the rural resources to meet the large domestic demand for sugar and by generating surplus energy to meet the increasing energy needs of India. In addition to this, the industry has become the mainstay of the alcohol industry 4, and delivers value addition at the farm side. In general, sugarcane price accounts for approximately seventy percent of the ex-mill sugar price 5. The Indian sugar industry is characterised by the coexistence of private, cooperative and public sector. It is rural centric and hence a key driver of village level wealth creation. It has tremendous transformational opportunities to meet food, fuel and power needs and earn carbon credit. Sugarcane and sugar production are seasonal with more than ninety per cent happening in the winter months of November to March. Crushing season lasts an average for days in a year depending on the region, weather, irrigation, 75

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5 cultivation practices as well as sugar cane availability. The cyclicality of Indian sugar is less driven by nature and more accentuated by radical change in Government policies 6. The sugar industry caters to an estimated twelve per cent of rural population in these nine states through direct and indirect employment. Effectively, each farmer 7 contributes to the production of 2.9 MT. of sugar every year. The traditional sweeteners of India like Gur and Khandsari are consumed mostly by the rural population in the country. In the early 1930s nearly two third of sugarcane production was used for the production of alternate sweeteners like Gur and Khandsari. As accordingly because of the better standard of living and higher incomes, the sweetener demand has shifted to white sugar. Currently one third of sugarcane production is used by the Gur and Khandsari sectors 8. India has, in recent years emerged as the largest sugarcane and sugar producing country in the world, The cane sugar industry of India spread over vast regions of the country occupies an important place in the economic and social life of the country in view of the wealth generated as well as the employment provided to lakhs of people in rural areas of the country. The industry has the potential to produce a number of essential chemicals from it s by products and generate extra power for supply to other industries or to state grids. The modern sugar industry of India since it was established in the early thirties has witnessed vast technological changes over the past six decades, thanks to the research and development work carried out in the field of sugar cane manufacture in the country and also in the world sugar industry. Subsequent growth of the industry has been accompanied by the technological advance in the production of raw material as well as the manufacture of sugar and the country is 75

6 now in a position to export both raw and white sugar after meeting the internal demand of this sweetening agent. However, technological progress is key to any further growth in the manufacturing sector and it is essential for the technologists engaged in the sugar cane manufacture to keep abreast of the developments taking place in different parts of the world in the field of technology of sugar production 9. In the year 1930 there was an advent of modern sugar processing industry in India which was started with grant of tariff protection to the sugar industry. In the year the number of sugar mills increased from thirty to one hundred and thirty five. In the year production was increased from 1.20 lakh tonnes to 9.34 lakh tonnes under the dynamic leadership of the private sector. In the year the era of planning for industrial development began and Government laid down targets of sugar production and consumption, licensed and installed capacity, sugarcane production during each of the sugar companies have been established in large sugarcane growing states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh and are the six states contributing more than eighty five per cent of total sugar production in India. Fifty seven per cent of total production is together contributed by Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. Indian sugar industry has been growing horizontally with large number of small sized sugar plants set up throughout India as opposed to the consolidation of capacity in the rest of the important sugar producing countries and sellers of sugar, where there is greater concentration on larger capacity of sugar plants. 76

7 Figure 4.1 Production of Sugarcane in Major States of India Source: Both sugar and sugarcane are treated as essential commodity. The Government s focus to give high sugar cane price to farmer and concomitantly maintain low sugar price for the consumer is socially unexceptionable but economically unsustainable. Low sugar price leads to unremunerative sugar cane price and its delayed payment forcing the cultivator to switch over to other crops. This kick-starts sugar shortage and high sugar price, in turn prompting higher sugar cane price to lure the farmer back to sugar cane. This cycle gets repeated endlessly with resultant spike in sugar production causing demand-supply disequilibrium and driving sugar prices on a roller-coaster ride. The Indian sugar factories are located largely in rural areas and directly contributing to rural economic development and employment. Industrial user s viz., beverage, biscuit, confectionary manufacturers are the largest consumers of Indian sugar accounting to sixty five per cent of the Indian sugar production. The comparative sugar productions in the last two sugar seasons (Oct - Sep) are given below: 77

8 Particulars (in lakh tonnes) (Estd.) (in lakh tonnes) Opening stock as on 1st Oct * Production Total availability Demand - Internal consumption - Exports Closing stock Source: ISMA Journal May, 2012,* as posted in the website of Dept. of Food & Public Distribution Government has been encouraging setting up of new sugar mills as well as expansions upto 5000 TCD allowing upto one hundred per cent of sugar for new mills and eighty per cent for expanded units, to be marketed in free market for certain number of years. Thus the growth has been lateral. Today there are four hundred and forty eight mills with installed capacity of 12.5 MT with average size of 2150 TPD with some units of TCD and few of 5000 TCD. Indian sugar production has crossed twenty six million tonnes in sugar season However, production estimate for has been lowered by Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) to twenty four million tonnes due to poor monsoon. ISMA has repeatedly stressed the Government that there is enough stock to meet the domestic needs besides a marginal surplus available for exports, despite a fall in output estimate

9 MAJOR LEGISLATIONS The major legislation and policies concerning the sugar industry in India are as follows: (i) The Essential Commodities Act, 1955 (ii) Sugar Control Order, 1966 (iii) Sugarcane Control Act, 1966 (iv) Levy Sugar Supply (Control) Order, 1979 (v) Sugar (Packing and Marking) Order, 1970 (vi) Sugar Export Promotion Act, 1958 (vii) Sugar Cess Act, 1982 (viii) Sugar Development Fund Act, 1982 and 2002 (ix) Levy Sugar Price Equalization Fund Act, 1976 (x) Molasses Control Order, 1961 and Decontrol, 1993 (xi) Excise and Custom Rules (xii) State Sugar Policies (xiii) Power Purchase Agreements (xiv) Environment Norms by State Pollution Control Boards ABOUT TAMIL NADU SUGAR INDUSTRY The agro based sugar mills play an important role in the economic growth of rural areas with the sole aim to generate large scale direct employment. Tamil Nadu sugar industry is responsible for about ten per cent of the total sugar production in India. Majority of sugar units in Tamil Nadu lies with the co-operative 79

10 sector, with some private player s also gathering momentum 11. The sugar industry generates large-scale direct employment, apart from providing indirect employment to thousands of persons in rural areas who are involved in cultivation, harvesting, transport of cane and other services 12. Sugarcane is one of the most important industrial crops in our state and also emerging as a multi product crop contributing to the production of sugar, jaggery, alcohol, electricity, paper and other allied products. The sustenance of the sugar mills and well being of the sugarcane growers are mutually interlinked. Hence the major focus is towards enhancing sugarcane productivity and production thereby improving the living standard of the sugarcane growers. South India, Tamil Nadu in particular, has many advantages for sugar productions are as follows: Cane productivity and sugar recovery per unit area is highest. The average farm size is less than a hectare and is owned by farmers. Geographically, Tamil Nadu has the advantage of good soil and abundant water and yield is highest among the various states in India. Farmers are willing to adopt new farming practices and cultivation methodologies, including mechanisation, to improve yield, access to ports to reach export market, improved development of infrastructure facilities, to ensure adequate sugar cane availability and supply, to ensure timely availability of newer varieties of sugar cane 13. Around 3.50 Lakh farmers are cultivating sugarcane in Tamil Nadu which is five per cent of the total cultivable area. During sugar seasons, the sugarcane crop was cultivated in 3.16 lakh hectares in the state and the total estimated sugarcane production was L.Mt. During , it is programmed to cultivate Sugarcane in 3.60 L.Ha. with a production target of L.Mt. 80

11 Out of the total sugarcane production, sixty to seventy per cent of the cane was drawn and crushed by the sugar mills of Tamil Nadu during and this crushing rate is expected to be increased during sugar season ANALYSIS OF SELECTED VARIABLES OF SUGAR INDUSTRY The analysis of financial performance can also significantly prove through the selected variables of a company or of the industries as a whole. All techniques have been adopted to appraise the financial performance of the sugar industries in this chapter. An attempt has also been made to estimate trend co-efficients for selected variables of selected sugar industries in Tamil Nadu during the study period by fitting a linear regression model. The liner model fitted is as follows. P = α + βt + e Where P is rate of selected variables, t is the time and α and βt are the parameters [intercept and co-efficients respectively] and e is the error term. To test whether the difference between actual selected variables and estimated selected variables was significant or not, the following hypothesis is framed and tested. There is no significant difference between actual values and the trend values of selected variables among different years. The annual production and consumption of world sugar industry, area, yield, production of sugarcane and sugar, consumption of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry, annual production, sales, crushing of sugar canes in selected sugar companies in Tamil Nadu were analysed from the year to Further, the annual production and consumption of world sugar industry, area, yield, production of sugarcane and sugar, consumption of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry, annual production, sales, crushing of sugar canes in selected sugar companies in Tamil Nadu over the study period are achieved through estimation of mean, co-efficient of variation and compound annual growth rate. 81

12 Table 4.1 Annual Production and Consumption of World Sugar Industry ( to ) (in MT) Year Production Consumption Actual Growth Actual Growth Mean S.D CV CAGR Source: Secondary Data The production and consumption of world sugar industry have been shown in Table 4.1. The highest growth of production in the year is and consumption in the year is The mean values of production and consumption of world sugar industry are and respectively. 82

13 The compound annual growth rate of world sugar production which worked out as and in world sugar consumption is The coefficient of variation indicates that the annual production and consumption of world sugar industry are moderately fluctuated during the study period. Table 4.2 Estimates of trend co-efficients for World sugar industry ( to ) S. No. Particulars P = α + βt + e α βt R 2 F-value p-value S/NS 1 Production % ** S 2 Consumption % ** S ** P<0.01 S - Significant Hypothesis: There is no significant difference between actual value and the trend value of production and consumption of world sugar industry among different years. The results estimate of trend co-efficient for world sugar industry presented in Table 4.2. It is clear that, the p-value is less than 0.01 per cent, the null hypothesis is rejected at one per cent level of significance. Hence, there is significant difference between actual value and the trend value of production and consumption of world sugar industry among different years. 83

14 consumption Production Figure 4.2 Trend Analysis for Production of World Sugar Industry Trend Analysis Plot for Production Yt = * t MA PE MA D MSD Figure 4.3 Trend Analysis for Consumption of World Sugar Industry Trend Analysis Plot for consumption Yt = *t MA PE MA D MSD

15 Table 4.3 Projections for Annual Production and Consumption of World Sugar Industry ( to ) (in MT) Year Production Consumption Source: Computed The projections obtained for world sugar industry by linear growth models listed in Table 4.3. It shows production and consumption have been growing marginally. The trend movement of the production units is Mt. that will be the highest in the year and the production units will be the lowest ( Mt.) in the year is In other hand the trend movement of consumption the highest in the year that is Mt., will be the lowest that is Mt. in the year

16 Year Table 4.4 Area, Yield, Production of Sugarcane, Production of Sugar, Consumption of Sugar and Sugar Recovery of Area (ha) Indian Sugar Industry ( to ) Yield (t/ha) Sugarcane Production (MT) Production of Sugar (MT) Consumption of Sugar (LT) Sugar Recovery (per cent) Actual Growth Actual Growth Actual Growth Actual Growth Actual Growth Actual Growth Mean S.D CV CAGR Source: Secondary Data 86

17 The area, yield, production of sugarcane, production of sugar, consumption of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry have been shown in Table 4.4. The highest growth of area in the year is , yield (t/ha) is of , sugarcane production (million tonnes) in the year is , production sugar (million tonnes) is in the year , consumption of sugar (LT) in the year is and sugar recovery (percentage) in the year is The mean values of area, yield, production of sugarcane, production of sugar, consumption of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry are 4500, 66.71, 298, 20.4, and respectively. The compound annual growth rate of area, yield, production of sugarcane, production of sugar, consumption of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry which worked out as , , , , and respectively. The coefficient of variation indicates that the area, yield, production of sugarcane, production of sugar, consumption of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry were moderately fluctuated during the study period. Table 4.5 Estimates of Trend Co-Efficients for Area, Yield, Production of Sugarcane and Sugar, Consumption of Sugar and Sugar Recovery of Indian Sugar Industry ( to ) S. P = α + βt + e Particulars No. α βt R 2 F-value p-value S/NS 1 Area (ha) % NS 2 Yield (t/ha) % * S 3 Sugarcane Production (MT) % NS 4 Production of Sugar (MT) % NS 5 Consumption of Sugar (LT) % ** S 6 Sugar Recovery (Per cent) % NS ** P<0.01 *P<0.05 S Significant NS Not Significant 87

18 Hypothesis: There is no significant difference between actual value and the trend value of area, yield, production of sugarcane, sugar of production, consumption of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry among different years The results estimate of trend co-efficient for area, yield, production of sugarcane, sugar production, consumption of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry are presented in Table 4.5. It is observed that, the p-value is less than 0.01 per cent in consumption of sugar, the null hypothesis is rejected at one per cent level of significance. Hence, there is significant difference between actual value and the trend value of consumption of sugar in Indian sugar industry among different years. It is noted that, the p-value is less than 0.05 per cent in yield of sugar cane in Indian sugar industry, the null hypothesis is rejected at five per cent level of significance. Hence, there is significant difference between actual value and the trend value of yield of sugar cane in the Indian sugar industry among different years. It is clear that, the p-value is more than 0.05 per cent in area, production of sugar cane, sugar production and sugar recovery, the null hypothesis is accepted at five per cent level of significance. Hence, there is no significant difference between actual value and the trend value of area, production of sugar cane, production of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry among different years. 88

19 Figure 4.4 Trend Analysis of Area of Sugar Cane Cultivated in Indian Sugar Industry Trend Analysis Plot for Area Yt = * t Yield t/ha A rea Figure 4.5 MA PE 8 MA D 350 MSD Trend Analysis of Sugar Cane Yield in Indian Sugar Industry Trend Analysis Plot for Yield t/ha Yt = * t MA PE MA D MSD

20 Sugar (Million tons) Sugarcane(million tons) Figure 4.6 Trend Analysis of Sugar Cane Production in Indian Sugar Industry Trend Analysis Plot for Sugarcane(million tons) Yt = * t MA PE 9.60 MA D MSD Figure 4.7 Trend Analysis of Sugar Production in Indian Sugar Industry Trend Analysis Plot for Sugar (Million tons) Yt = * t MA PE MA D MSD

21 Sugar Recovery% Consumption of Sugar(LT) Figure 4.8 Trend Analysis of Consumption of Sugar in Indian Sugar Industry Trend Analysis Plot for Consumption of Sugar(LT) Yt = * t MA PE MA D MSD Figure 4.9 Trend Analysis of Sugar Recovery in Indian Sugar Industry Trend Analysis Plot for Sugar Recovery% Yt = * t MA PE MA D MSD

22 Table 4.6 Projections for Area, Yield, Production of Sugarcane, Production of Sugar, Consumption of Sugar and Sugar Recovery of Indian Sugar Industry ( to ) Year Area (ha) Yield (t/ha) Sugarcane Production (MT) Production of Sugar (MT) Consumption of Sugar (LT) Sugar Recovery (per cent) Source: Computed The projections obtained for area, yield, production of sugarcane, production of sugar, consumption of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry by linear growth models are listed in Table 4.6. It shows the area, yield, production of sugarcane, production of sugar, consumption of sugar and sugar recoveries have been growing marginally. The trend movement of area, yield, production of sugarcane, production of sugar and consumption of sugar is , , , and respectively. It will be highest for the year and the sugar recovery is in The area, yield, production of sugarcane, production of sugar and consumption of sugar will be the lowest in the year and the sugar recovery in the year

23 Table 4.7 Annual Production of Sugar in Selected Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu ( to ) (in MT) Year BASL DSCL EID RSCL SSL TASL Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Mean S.D CV CAGR Source: Secondary Data 93

24 The annual production of sugar by the private sugar companies in Tamil Nadu have been shown in Table 4.7. There was fluctuation in production of sugar in all the selected sugar companies in Tamil Nadu. The highest mean values of Bannariamman Sugar Ltd., is Mt., in EID Parry (India) Ltd., is Mt., and Mt. in Sakthi Sugars Ltd.,. The compound annual growth rate of annual production which worked out as of Bannariamman sugars Ltd., is the highest in the selected private sector sugar companies. The coefficient of variation indicates that the annual productions of selected private sector sugar companies are moderately fluctuated during the study period. Table 4.8 Estimates of Trend Co-Efficients for Production of Sugar in Selected Private Sector Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu ( to ) S.No. Companies P = α + βt + e α Βt R 2 F-value p-value S/NS 1 BASL % * S 2 DSCL % ** S 3 EID % NS 4 RSCL % NS 5 SSL % NS 6 TASL % NS ** P<0.01 *P<0.05 S- Significant NS Not Significant Hypothesis: There is significant difference between actual value and the trend value production of sugar among different years. 94

25 The results estimate of trend co-efficient for production of sugar in selected private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu is presented in Table 4.8. It is clear that, the p-value is less than 0.01 per cent production of sugar in Dharani sugars and Chemicals Ltd., the null hypothesis is rejected at one per cent level of significance. Hence, there is significant difference between actual value and the trend value of production of sugar in Dharani sugars and Chemicals Ltd., among different years. It is noted that, the p-value is less than 0.05 per cent in production of sugar in Bannariamman Sugars ltd., the null hypothesis is rejected at five per cent level of significance. Hence, there is significant difference between actual value and the trend value of production of sugar in Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., except EID Parry (India) Ltd., Rajshree Sugars and Chemicals Ltd., Sakthi Sugars Ltd., and Thiru Arooran Sugars Ltd., among different years. 95

26 Dharani Bannariamman Figure 4.10 Trend Analysis of Production of Sugar in Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for Bannariamman Yt = *t MA PE E+02 MA D E+05 MSD E+11 0 Figure 4.11 Trend Analysis of Production of Sugar in Dharani Sugars and Chemicals Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for Dharani Yt = *t MA PE 37 MA D MSD

27 Rajshree EID Parry Figure 4.12 Trend Analysis of Production of Sugar in EID Parry (India) Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for EID Parry Yt = * t MA PE 24 MA D MSD Figure 4.13 Trend Analysis of Production of Sugar in Rajshree Sugars and Chemicals Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for Rajshree Yt = * t MA PE 21 MA D MSD

28 Thiru A rooran Sakthi Figure 4.14 Trend Analysis of Production of Sugar in Sakthi Sugars Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for Sakthi Yt = * t MA PE 66 MA D MSD Figure 4.15 Trend Analysis of Production of Sugar in Thiru Arooran Sugars Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for Thiru Arooran Yt = * t MA PE 25 MA D MSD

29 Table 4.9 Projections for Production of Sugar in Selected Private Sector Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu ( to ) (in MT) Year BASL DSCL EID RSCL SSL TASL Source: Computed The projections obtained for production of selected private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu by linear growth models listed in the above table. It shows the private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu have growing marginally. The trend movement production of selected private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu for the year , the production units will be the highest in EID Parry (India) Ltd., and followed by Sakthi sugars Ltd., The production units will be the lowest in Thiru Arooran sugars Ltd., 99

30 Table 4.10 Annual Sales of Selected Private Sector Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu ( to ) (Rs. in crores) Year BASL DSCL EID RSCL SSL TASL Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Mean S.D CV CAGR Source: Secondary Data 100

31 The annual sales of sugar by the private sugar companies in Tamil Nadu have been shown in Table There was fluctuation in sales of sugar in all the selected sugar companies in Tamil Nadu. The highest mean values of EID parry (India) Ltd., is Rs.981 crores, in Sakthi sugars Ltd., is Rs.962 crores, and Rs crores in Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., The compound annual growth rate of annual sales which worked out as of Thiru Arooran Sugars Ltd., is the highest in the selected private sector sugar companies. The coefficient of variation indicates that the annual sales of selected private sector sugar companies are moderately fluctuated during the study period. Table 4.11 Estimates of Trend Co-Efficients for Annual Sales of Selected Private Sector Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu ( to ) S. No. Companies P = α + βt + e α Βt R 2 F -value p-value S/NS 1 BASL % NS 2 DSCL % ** S 3 EID % NS 4 RSCL % ** S 5 SSL % ** S 6 TASL % ** S ** P<0.01 S- Significant NS Not Significant Hypothesis: There is no significant difference between actual value and the trend value of annual sales of sugar among different years. 101

32 The results estimate of trend co-efficient for sales of selected private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu presented in Table It is clear that, the p-value is less than 0.01 per cent annual sales of sugar in Dharani sugars and Chemicals Ltd., Rajshree sugars and Chemicals Ltd., Sakthi Sugars Ltd., and Thiru Arooran Sugars Ltd., the null hypothesis is rejected at one per cent level of significance. Hence, there is significant difference between actual value and the trend value of sales of sugar in Dharani Sugars and Chemicals Ltd., Rajshree Sugars and Chemicals Ltd., Sakthi Sugars Ltd., and Thiru Arooran sugars Ltd., except Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., and EID parry (India) Ltd., among different years. 102

33 Dharani Bannariamman Figure 4.16 Trend Analysis of Sales of Sugar in Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for Bannariamman Yt = * t MA PE 63.2 MA D MSD Figure 4.17 Trend Analysis of Sales of Sugar in Dharani Sugars and Chemicals Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for Dharani Yt = *t MA PE 38.0 MA D MSD

34 Rajshree EID Parry Figure 4.18 Trend Analysis of Sales of Sugar in EID Parry (India) Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for EID Parry Yt = * t MA PE 32 MA D 278 MSD Figure 4.19 Trend Analysis of Sales of Sugar in Rajshree Sugars and Chemicals Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for Rajshree Yt = * t MA PE MA D MSD

35 Thiru A rooran Sakthi Figure 4.20 Trend Analysis of Sales of Sugar in Sakthi Sugars Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for Sakthi Yt = * t MA PE 24 MA D 233 MSD Figure 4.21 Trend Analysis of Sales of Sugar in Thiru Arooran Sugars Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for Thiru Arooran Yt = *t MA PE MA D MSD

36 Table 4.12 Projections for Annual Sales of Sugar in Selected Private Sector Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu ( to ) (Rs. in crores) Year BASL DSCL EID RSCL SSL TASL Source: Computed The projections obtained for annual sales of selected private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu by linear growth models are listed in Table It shows the private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu have been growing marginally. The trend movement sales of selected private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu for the year , the sales will be the highest in Sakthi sugars Ltd., and followed by EID Parry (India) Ltd., the annual sales will be the lowest in Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., 106

37 Year Table 4.13 Annual Crushing of Sugar Canes by Selected Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu ( to ) (in MT) BASL DSCL EID RSCL SSL TASL Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Mean S.D CV CAGR Source: Secondary Data 107

38 The annual crushing of sugar cane by the private sugar companies in Tamil Nadu has been shown in Table There was fluctuation in crushing of sugar cane in all the selected sugar companies in Tamil Nadu. The highest mean values of EID Parry (India) Ltd., is Mt., in Sakthi Sugars Ltd., is Mt., and Mt. in Rajshree sugars and Chemicals Ltd., and the compound annual growth rate of crushing of sugar cane which worked out as of Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., and Thiru Arooran Sugars Ltd., is the highest in the selected private sector sugar companies. The coefficient of variation indicates that the crushing of sugar cane of selected private sector sugar companies are moderately fluctuated during the study period. Table 4.14 Estimates of Trend Co-Efficients for Annual Crushing of Sugar Canes by Selected Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu ( to ) S. No. Companies P = α + βt + e α Βt R 2 F-value p-value S/NS 1 BASL % * S 2 DSCL % ** S 3 EID % NS 4 RSCL % NS 5 SSL NS 6 TASL % * S ** P<0.01 *P<0.05 S- Significant NS Not Significant Hypothesis: There is no significant difference between actual value and the trend value of crushing capacity of sugar cane among different years 108

39 The results estimate of trend co-efficient for annual crushing capacity of selected private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu are presented in Table It is clear that, the p-value is less than 0.01 per cent and 0.05 per cent in crushing of sugar cane in Dharani sugars and Chemicals Ltd., and Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., Thiru Arooran sugars Ltd., respectively the null hypothesis is rejected at one per cent and five per cent level of significance respectively. Hence, there is significant difference between actual value and the trend value of crushing of sugar cane in Dharani sugars and Chemicals Ltd., Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., and Thiru Arooran sugars Ltd., except EID Parry (India) Ltd., Rajshree sugars and Chemicals Ltd., and Sakthi sugars Ltd., among different years. 109

40 D h a r a n i Bannariamman Figure 4.22 Trend Analysis of Crushing of Sugar Cane by Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., C Trend Analysis Plot for Bannariamman Yt = *t Actual Fits Forecasts Accuracy Measures MAPE E+01 MAD E+05 MSD E+11 0 Figure 4.23 Trend Analysis of Crushing of Sugar Cane by Dharani Sugars Ltd., T r e n d A n a l y s i s P l o t f o r D h a r a n i L i n e a r T r e n d M o d e l Y t = * t V a r ia b le A c tu a l F o r e c a s ts A c c u r a c y M e a s u r e s M A P E E M A D E M S D E In d e x

41 Rajshree EID Parry Figure 4.24 Trend Analysis of Crushing of Sugar Cane by EID Parry (India) Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for EID Parry Yt = *t MA PE E+01 MA D MSD E E Figure 4.25 Trend Analysis of Crushing of Sugar Cane by Rajshree Sugars Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for Rajshree Yt = * t MA PE E+01 MA D E+05 MSD E

42 Thiru Arooran Sakthi Figure 4.26 Trend Analysis of Crushing of Sugar Cane by Sakthi Sugars Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for Sakthi Yt = * t MA PE E+01 MA D E+05 MSD E Figure 4.27 Trend Analysis of Crushing of Sugar Cane by Thiru Arooran Sugars Ltd., Trend Analysis Plot for Thiru Arooran Yt = * t MA PE E+01 MA D E+05 MSD E

43 Table 4.15 Projections for Annual Crushing of Sugar Cane by Selected Private Sector Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu ( to ) (in MT) Year BASL DSCL EID RSCL SSL TASL Source: Computed The projections obtained for annual crushing of sugar cane by selected private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu by linear growth models listed in Table It shows the private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu have been growing marginally. The trend movement crushing of sugar cane by selected private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu for the year , the crushing of sugar cane will be the highest in EID Parry (India) Ltd., and followed by Thiru Arooran sugars Ltd., The crushing of sugar cane units will be the lowest in Dharani sugars and Chemicals Ltd., 113

44 REFERENCES 1. crops.com/introduction/ ISMA Indian sugar year book KPMG Analysis AC Nielsen, Business World Marketing White book Sugar production for the year 2007 has been estimated to be 27 million MT Source: ISMA _in_india.pdf Nadu.html Profile: E.I.D-Parry (India) Ltd 114

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