The Portuguese clipfish market 2017
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1 The Portuguese clipfish market Johnny Thomassen Fiskeriutsending i Portugal
2 On this presentation we will try to answer: - How is the Portuguese economy doing? - Are the consumer habits changing? - How is the consumption of Clipfish at Home? - What is the performance of Clipfish in Modern Distribution? - What is the performance of Clipfish in the Cash & Carry Market? The Future of clipfish By Johnny Thomassen 2
3 How is the Portuguese economy doing?
4 2017: Deficit All Time Low, 1,5% Presentasjonstittel 4
5 Deficit lower than 1% Growth % Tourism growth of 10% to 14% Presentasjonstittel 5
6 Unemployment Rate Under 9% in Presentasjonstittel 6
7 Portuguese Consumers Confidence Index with a positive trend and with the highest level of Confidence of the last years WORLD EUROPE PORTUGAL Source - AC Nielsen The Future of clipfish By Johnny Thomassen 7
8 How are consumers changing in Portugal?
9 PORTUGUESES HH S ARE BUYING LESS BUT MORE EXPENSIVE FOOD FMCG KPI s Evolution YTD P13 17 vs YTD P13 16 To t a l F M C G ( F a s t M o v i n g C o n s u m e r G o o d s ) Purchase Frequency +0.4% Household buyers +0.5% Spend per Trip -0.1% Average Price +3.4% -2.7% Volume Evol. +0.7% Value Evol. -3.5% Volume per trip Source:Kantar 9
10 ..AND SPEND MORE WHEN OUT OF HOME OOH Drinks & Snacking Evolution Out of Home YTD Q vs. homologous OOH +12.5% (units) PURCHASE ACTS 243 M (-3.1%) 54 x (-1.1%) FREQUENCY VOLUME / ACT 1,45 uni (+16,0%) 1,33 (+15.7%) SPENT / ACT Source:Kantar 10
11 AFFECTING IN HOME PURCHASES MAINLY FOOD CATEGORIES, OTHER CATEGORIES STABLE FMCG Volume, Value and Average Price Evolution per Sector YTD P vs YTD P Food Beverages Home Care % Volume Evol. % Value Evol. % Avg Price Evol. + 3% Evol. vs homólogo + 3% - 3% Evol. vs homólogo - 3% Evol. vs homólogo Source:Kantar 11
12 LIDL AND ALDI ARE GROWING AND HOLDING FMCG* VALUE ( ) FMCG Retailers Share and Evolution % Value YTD P vs. homologous 32,9 32,5 26,2 26,3 YTD P YTD P ,1 7,1 6,6 6,3 5,9 4,3 8,1 7,5 6,4 6,9 5,7 4,7 1,0 0,9 1,0 0,7 Continente Pingo Doce Lidl Traditional Trade Others ITMI Auchan Minipreço E.Leclerc Aldi 1,3 13,7 3,6 3,7 33,3-0,4-4,7-8,0-7,3-5,9 * F M C G = F a s t M o v i n g C o n s u m e r G o o d s Source:Kantar 12
13 How is the consumption of Clipfish at Home?
14 One of the major products for the Portuguese families 3.5 million Portuguese HH s bought at least once Cod Fish in ,3% Penetration 6,0days Frequency 19,20 Spend X Act 2,33kgs Volume X Act Source - Kantar 2017 Volume Evol. % -5,7% Value Evol. % -0,6% Source:Kantar 2/8/2018 The Future of clipfish By Johnny Thomassen 15
15 LESS SHOPPERS AND LOWER PURCHASE INTENSITY IN COD DURING 2017 HOWEVER A STABLE CATEGORY IN VALUE Total Cod Fish KPI s (Market Indicators) Ytd P vs Ytd P pts Source:Kantar
16 DRIED COD DROVE MARKET TREND Total Cod Fish KPI S Contribution to Segments evolution (%) and Volume Share Ytd P vs Ytd P KPI s Contribution for Growth Volume Evol. (%) -5.7% Total Cod Volume Share (%) -6.3% Cod Nat. Salt/Dried 86,3 85,7-0.7% Cod Frozen Salt/Dried 10,0 10,5 Ytd P Ytd P Penetration % Frequency Volume per Trip Average Price ( /kg) Population Source:Kantar
17 HOWEVER DRIED COD SHOPPERS ARE SPENDING MORE PER BASKET FROZEN SLOW DOWN RECRUITMENT Total Cod Fish Segments KPI S Ytd P vs Ytd P Volume Evol. (%) -5.7% Ytd P Ytd P Penetration % Frequency Spend per Trip Volume per Trip Kgs 88,2 6,1 18,76 2,404 Total Cod 87,3 6,0 19,20 2, % Cod Nat.Salt/Dried 74,8 74,0 4,7 4,6 24,42 25,35 3,144 3, % Cod Frozen Salt/Dried 40,6 41,1 3,1 3,0 8,89 8,98 1,039 1,023 Source:Kantar
18 BOTH COD SEGMENTS ARE INCREASING PRICE STEADILY Dried cod fish & Frozen Cod Average Price Evolution Mat P to Mat P ,0 Dried Cod Frozen Cod 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 Source:Kantar
19 WITH PRICE INCREASE AFFECTING DRIED COD ATTRACTIVENESS Dried cod fish Volume and Penetration Evolution Mat P to Mat P Volume 000s Kgs Penetration % Source:Kantar
20 WHILE FROZEN RESISTS AND ABLE TO ACHIEVE FLATENESS Frozen cod Volume and Penetration Evolution Mat P to Mat P Volume 000s Kgs Penetration % Source:Kantar
21 LOWER FREQUENCY OVERLAPS BASKET SIZE ISSUES IN DRIED COD Dried cod fish Measure Tree Main market indicators Ytd P vs Ytd P pts Source:Kantar
22 LIDL GROWTH STANDS OUT, WILE CONTINENTE MAINTAIN LEADERSHIP Dried cod fish Retailers Volume Share and Evolution Ytd s P vs Ytd P Ytd P13'16 Ytd P13'17 37,2 36,6 35,0 33,0 7,4 7,1 6,4 6,0 4,6 4,4 5,2 4,2 2,5 3,6 3,8 3,1 Continente Pingo Doce Intermarché Others Auchan Trad. Trade Lidl Minipreço -7.9% -0.4% -9.5% +2.7% -10.2% -25.1% +36.3% -23.6% Volume Evol. Vs Ytd P13 16(%) Source:Kantar
23 What is the performance of Clipfish in Modern Distribution?
24 Total Food Stores In 2017, both volume and value sales increased for total Codfish market Total Dry+Frozen Codfish Value Sales (M ) % Value Change Vs. Year Ago Volume Sales (M Kg) % Volume Change Vs. Year Ago MAT Nov MAT Nov % % MAT Nov % % Source : Nielsen Markettrack W Value sales overcome the result of 2015
25 Frozen Codfish continue to grow more vs Dry in Increased 7% its value sales and 3% its volume Total Food Stores Dry Codfish also increased its value and keeps leading the market Dry Codfish Frozen Codfish MAT Nov MAT Nov MAT Nov.16 MAT 16 Nov Value Sales (M ) % Volume Sales (M Kg) % 0% +3% Source : Nielsen Markettrack W
26 Christmas period (December) increase on volume sales 20% Total Food Stores Volume Sales (Kg) Nov-Dec % Weight vs Year Total Dry+Frozen Codfish Dez 15 Jan 16 Fev 16 Mar 16 Abr Mai Christmas 15 Jun 16 Jul 16 Ago 16 Set 16 Out 16 Nov 16 18% Dez Jan Christma s 16 Fev 17 Mar 17 Abr 17 Mai 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Ago Set Christma s 17 Out 17 Nov 17 20% Dez 17 Source : Nielsen Markettrack
27 Comparing with Christmas 2016, average price /kg total Codfish decreased in 5% 8,00 7,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 Total Food Stores Price /Kg Fev 15 Abr 15 Jun 15 Ago 15 Dez15 7,25 Out 15 Dez 15 Fev 16 Abr 16 Jun 16 Dez16 7,03-3% Ago 16 Out 16 Dez 16 Fev 17 Abr 17 Jun 17 Dez17 6,70-5% Ago 17 Out 17 Dez 17 Fev 15 Mar 15 Abr 15 Mai 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Ago 15 Set 15 Out 15 Nov 15 Dez 15 Jan 16 Fev 16 Mar 16 Abr 16 Mai 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Ago 16 Set 16 Out 16 Nov 16 Dez 16 Jan 17 Fev 17 Mar 17 Abr 17 Mai 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Ago 17 Set 17 Out 17 Nov 17 Dez 17 Source : Nielsen Markettrack
28 ¾ of the Market are in Supermarkets Dry+Frozen Codfish Dry Codfish Frozen Codfish MAT Dez 16 MAT Dez 17 MAT Dez 16 MAT Dez 17 MAT Dez 16 MAT Dez 17 Volume Sales (000 Kg) HIPERS SUPERS GRANDES SUPERS PEQUENOS TRADICIONAIS Source : Nielsen Markettrack W Hypers are more important in Frozen Codfish 25%
29 Traditional channels increased volume sales, while supers had negative or null dynamics % Var. Volume Sales (Kg) Dry+Frozen Codfish Dry Codfish Frozen Codfish Hypers 6% 7% 2% Big Super 0% 0% 0% SmallSuper -6% -6% -5% Traditional 12% 4% 29% MAT W52 17 MAT W52 17 MAT W52 17 Source : Nielsen Markettrack W
30 What is the performance of Clipfish on the C&C market?
31 In 2017, total Codfish Market continues increasing value sales and increased also its volume Total C&C Total Dry+Frozen Codfish Value Sales (000 ) Volume Sales (000Kg) MAT Nov MAT Nov % +4% MAT Nov % % Source : Nielsen C&C panel
32 Both Frozen and Dry Codfish revealed a good performance Dry increased 21% its value sales Total C&C Dry Codfish MAT Nov Value Sales (000 ) %Value Change vs Year Ago Volume Sales (000Kg) %Volume Change vs Year Ago MAT Nov % % Frozen Codfish MAT Nov MAT Nov % % Source : Nielsen C&C panel
33 Since Summer very good market increases. Pré Christmas period, important for a good year in sales, increased 16% Total C&C Volume Sales (Kg) Total Dry+Frozen Codfish Nov-Dec % Weight vs Year 21 % 24 % 28 % Assuming December = last Year % 0 Nov15 Jan16 Mar16 Mai16 Jul16 Set16 Nov16 Jan17 Mar17 Mai17 Jul17 Set17 Nov17 Christmas % Christma s % Christma s 17 Source : Nielsen C&C panel
34 Tendence in last periods is decreasing prices Total C&C Price /Kg Nov 15 7,30 C&C MARKET Nov 16 7,72 +6% Nov 17 7,74 0% Dez14 Fev15 Abr15 Jul15 Set15 Nov15 Jan16 Mar16 Mai16 Jul16 Set16 Nov16 Jan17 Mar17 Mai17 Jul17 Set17 Nov17 Dez14 Fev15 Abr15 Jul15 Set15 Nov15 Jan16 Mar16 Mai16 Jul16 Set16 Nov16 Jan17 Mar17 Mai17 Jul17 Set17 Nov17 Jan15 Mar15 Jun15 Ago15 Out15 Dez15 Fev16 Abr16 Jun16 Ago16 Out16 Dez16 Fev17 Abr17 Jun17 Ago17 Out17 Source : Nielsen C&C panel
35 Dry Codfish with same average price as Frozen. 9,5 Total C&C Price /Kg 8,5 7,5 6,5 5,5 8,2 7,3 7,4 7,4 7,7 7,8 7,6 7,5 7,4 7,1 6,9 6,9 6,9 7,0 6,9 7,0 6,6 6,1 6,1 6,3 7,0 7,3 7,8 8,0 7,1 7,2 7,2 7,4 7,6 7,5 7,5 7,5 7,4 7,0 7,2 7,8 7,0 7,1 7,0 7,2 7,3 7,3 7,2 7,4 6,7 6,5 7,8 8,4 8,0 8,2 8,2 8,0 7,9 7,1 7,3 7,5 7,4 7,6 7,6 7,2 7,3 7,3 7,4 7,7 7,8 8,0 7,7 8,0 7,8 7,4 4,5 3,5 Dez14 Fev15 Abr15 Jul15 Set15 Nov15 Jan16 Mar16 Mai16 Jul16 Set16 Nov16 Jan17 Mar17 Mai17 Jul17 Set17 Nov17 TOTAL BACALHAU CONGELADO TOTAL BACALHAU SECO Source : Nielsen Markettrack W
36 Do Cash & Carry Vs. Retailers have the same trend in Clipfish Market?
37 Both HORECA and Food Stores increase volume and value sales Codfish market (dry+ frozen) Cash&Carry Food Stores () Volume Sales Volume Change % Volume Sales Volume Change % Ton M Ton M Source : Nielsen C&C panel and MakretTrack Source : Nielsen RMS panel
38 - How is the Portuguese economy doing? - Lowest Deficit Since Democratic Republic in 1974, (-1,5%) - Lowest Unemployment last 10 years(- 8,5%) - Turism except to grow + 10% in Consumers strong confidence in economic growth - - Are the consumer habits changing? - Less Home Consumption,more eating Out - Less, more expensive food - - How is the consumption of Clipfish at Home? - Less Volume(-5,7%) but almost same Value (-0,6%)
39 - What is the performance of Clipfish in Modern Distribution? - Total cod market stable on +/ tons last 3 years - Slight increase on Frozen Codfish(+3%) do not reduce volume of dried Codfish(0%) - What is the performance of Clipfish in the Cash & Carry Market? - Increase in both Value(+20%) and Volume(+13%) - Dry Increase More than Frozen, on both Value(+21) and Volume(+14%) - Frozen Increase Value(+15%) and Volume (10%) - CONCLUTION 2017; - People eat less Clipfish at home, but more when going out. - Dried cod is more attractive and grows faster than frozen cod in the Horeca Chanel Presentasjonstittel 40
40 Good perspectives for Portugal in 2018! Presentasjonstittel 41
41 Takk for idag!
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