World Agricultural Production

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP September 2017 World Agricultural Russia Wheat: Harvest Estimate Continues to Climb USDA estimates Russia wheat production for 2017/18 at 81.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 3.5 mmt from last month and topping last year s record output by 8.5 mmt. The month-to-month increase is based mainly on harvest reports from the Ministry of Agriculture citing record winter wheat yields in the Southern, North Caucasus, Central, and Volga Districts. Moreover, high early yields in the spring wheat zone (including the Siberian, Ural, and Volga Districts) confirm earlier forecasts that were based on satellite imagery indicating outstanding conditions and high potential yields in the country s spring wheat zone. USDA estimates total-wheat yield at 3.02 tons per hectare, up 5 percent from last month, up 13 percent from last year s record, and 31 percent above the 5-year average. With Russia s wheat harvest about 70 percent complete as of September 6, the Ministry reports that yield in the Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

2 Southern District and North Caucasus District surpassed last year s record levels by 5 percent and 4 percent, respectively. Harvest is complete in both districts. The reported yield in the Central District is up 20 percent from last year, and yield in the Volga District is up by over 30 percent. Most of the harvested wheat to date has been winter wheat, which accounts for about 70 percent of Russia s total wheat output. Spring wheat harvest began in mid-august and will continue through October. The USDA production estimate excludes output of roughly 1.0 mmt from Crimea. (For more information, please contact Mark.Lindeman@fas.usda.gov.) Turkey Wheat: Crop Rebounds to a Record USDA estimates Turkey wheat production for 2017/18 at 20.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 3 percent from last month and 16 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 7.8 million hectares, unchanged from both last month and last year. Fall dryness over the Anatolian Plateau delayed the winter-wheat planting campaign and reduced the time available for crop establishment. However, favorable snow cover protected winter crops against frost damage and fully replenished subsoil moisture reserves which greatly benefited the crops as they resumed spring growth. When growth resumed, winter wheat development was two to three weeks behind normal. From early April through July, the weather was excellent and allowed the crop to make up for the early delay in development. is forecast at 2.56 tons per hectare, 3 percent above last month and 16 percent above last year. Harvest was likely complete by early September. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov) Canada Rapeseed: Decrease Based on Official Data USDA estimates rapeseed production for 2017/18 at 19.9 million metric tons (mmt), down 3 percent from last month. is estimated at 9.2 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month. The decrease is based on data from Statistics Canada indicating lower area for rapeseed. Harvest began in early August and is usually complete by the end of October (with the exception of last year when harvest was delayed owing to unexpected snowfall). In Saskatchewan, which produces about half of the rapeseed crop, harvest is 26 percent complete and in Alberta, which accounts for about 35 percent of the crop, harvest is about 16 percent complete. Harvest is underway in Manitoba as well. Rapeseed is usually swathed and placed in 2

3 windrows prior to threshing. At this point in the season, the dry weather will be favorable for dry-down and harvest. (For more information, please contact Argentina Sunflowers: High Domestic Demand for Sun Oil Boosts Argentina sunflower production for 2017/18 is forecast at 4.0 million metric tons, up 18 percent from last month and up 18 percent from last year. is estimated at 1.9 million hectares, 19 percent higher than last month and 11 percent higher than last season. The forecast yield of 2.11 tons per hectare is slightly below last month and 6 percent higher than last season s yield. Planting is off to a quick start this season, especially in northern Argentina. Increases in area are expected throughout the main production regions and increased domestic demand for sunflower oil as well as the absence of export taxes on both the crop and the processed oil has encouraged Argentine farmers to plant sunflowers. (For more information, please contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, Denise.mcwilliams@fas.usda.gov.) Mexico Cotton: Estimated Output Increases from Last Year USDA estimates 2017/18 cotton production at 1.38 million 480-lb bales (300,000 metric tons), up 20 percent from last month and up 80 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 185,000 hectares, up 19 percent from last month and up 80 percent from last year. The estimated harvested area is up 33 percent from the 5-year average. is estimated at 1,624 kilograms per hectare, up slightly from last year. Official reports cite planted area for the spring/summer cycle at 178,000 hectares as of July 30, 2017, up 78 percent from the same date last year and up 31 percent from the 5-year average. The most notable area increases were reported in Chihuahua and Baja California (the top two cotton-producing states) where planted area has increased approximately 70 percent and 135 percent from last year, respectively. Farmers have increased area to cotton this year due to favorable prices and unattractive returns for competing crops. Planting for the spring/summer cycle predominantly irrigated is virtually complete and has progressed under ideal 3

4 conditions. Harvest began in August and extends through January. (For more information, please contact India Cotton: Cotton Acreage Up 12 Percent from 2016/17 USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2017/18 at 30.0 million 480-pound bales, up 11 percent from last year due to expanded planted area. Harvested area is forecast at 12.2 million hectares, up 12 percent from last year. is forecast at 535 kilograms per hectare, down 1 percent from last year. The year-to-year decrease is due to erratic monsoon rainfall, unfavorable temperatures and pest problems. India s main cotton regions (north, central, and south) have all reported increases in planted area relative to last year. Both the north and south reported a 35-percent increase in planting from The major cotton areas in central India (Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh) reported planting area up by 8 percent from The southern cotton areas are still sowing cotton. Erratic monsoon rainfall in southern and central India have impacted the cotton crop, while heavy rainfall caused flooding in northern Gujarat. According to a report from the USDA agricultural attaché in Mumbai, floods missed the southern cotton planting areas but heavy rains replenished topsoil moisture in Gujarat. In northern India, the cotton crop is 75 to 80 days old and has reached boll formation. In central India, the cotton crop is 20 to 35 days old except in the south where it is still being sown. There are reports of whitefly, aphids, and pink bollworm, but farmers are taking precautions to control infestation. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.) Serbia Corn: Extreme Heat and Dryness Cuts 2.6 Million Tons USDA estimates Serbia corn production for 2017/18 at 4.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 39 percent from last month, down 47 percent from last year, and down 35 percent from the 5-year average. is estimated at 1.0 million hectares, down 0.1 million from last month and slightly below last year. is estimated at 4.0 tons per hectare, down 33 percent from last month, down 46 percent from last year s record, and 28 percent below the 5-year average. 4

5 Early expectations were for another bumper harvest after the 2016/17 crop achieved record yields and near-record production. However, severe drought and excessive heat, with temperatures above 40 C during reproduction and grain fill stages in July and August greatly reduced the crop. This unfavorable weather encompassed the entire Pannonian Basin which also includes the lowlands of Hungary, western Romania, and eastern Croatia but Serbian crops were hit especially hard, as the primary crop region of Vojvodina was at the center of the poor conditions. Corn yields in Serbia rely on rainfall since less than 10 percent of the crop is irrigated. In late August, agricultural specialists from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service in Belgrade traveled to Vojvodina, Serbia s agricultural heartland, to verify field conditions. This northern region has Serbia s largest and best managed farms. Crop conditions were observed to be extremely poor in August. Due to the high temperatures, the growing season was accelerated and harvest began in late August, a month ahead of normal. Plants were short. Some fields had no ears on any plants, resulting in a reduction of harvested area. Other fields had plants with only very small ears. Mold and worm damage were also reported and crop moisture was at a very low 11.4 percent compared to the usual 16 to 20 percent. Concerns are also building about potential aflatoxin problems. (For more information, please contact Bryan.Purcell@fas.usda.gov.) Argentina Corn: Increased Boosts Forecast USDA forecasts Argentina corn production for 2017/18 at 42.0 million metric tons, up 5 percent from last month and 2 percent from last year. is forecast at 5.2 million hectares, 6 percent more than last month and 6 percent higher than last season. The forecast yield of 8.08 tons per hectare is 1 percent lower than last month and 3 percent below last season s yield. Wet soils could delay late- September and October planting for early corn in Cordoba, Buenos Aires, La Pampa, and Santa Fe. Later-planted corn could comprise the larger share of the crop this season if rains continue in the core planting regions. With some fields expected to be planted to corn after a previous crop of corn, good management and the careful selection of fertilizers and pest-management chemicals will be required. (For more information, please contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, denise.mcwilliams@fas.usda.gov.) 5

6 Russia Corn: Estimated Reduced Following Hot and Dry Weather in the South USDA estimates Russia corn production for 2017/18 at 16.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 0.5 mmt from last month but surpassing last year s record output by 0.7 mmt. The estimated yield is reduced by 3 percent based on hot and dry weather in important corn-production territories in southern Russia, but remains the secondhighest on record. Harvested area is estimated at a record 3.0 million hectares against 2.8 million last year. Russia s corn area has more than doubled over the past seven years; the expansion has been driven largely by a three-fold increase in the Central District, which has become the country s top corn-producing region. (For more information, please contact Mark.Lindeman@fas.usda.gov.) Russia Barley: Record Offsets Lower USDA estimates Russia barley production for 2017/18 at 20.5 million metric tons (mmt), up 2.0 mmt from last month and up 3.0 mmt from last year. The increase is based on harvest reports from the Ministry of Agriculture. As of September 6, with harvest about 80 percent complete, the reported yield is 21 percent above the yield of the same date last year, and bunker-weight output (the weight prior to cleaning and drying) stands at nearly 18.0 million tons. Final net weight is typically about 6 percent less than bunker weight. is estimated at a record 2.59 tons per hectare, up 11 percent from last month, up 18 percent from last year, and 25 percent above the 5-year average. Most of the area remaining to be harvested is in the Ural and 6

7 Siberian Districts where yield tends to be lower than in other districts. The USDA production estimate excludes output of roughly 0.6 mmt from Crimea. Barley area in Russia peaked in the late 1970 s but then declined for about 30 years as demand for feed grains decreased in response to shrinking livestock inventories. has been fairly stable in recent years. USDA estimates harvested area for 2017/18 at 7.9 million hectares, down slightly from last year and the lowest in four years. Barley is grown in all agricultural regions of Russia. (For more information, please contact Mark.Lindeman@fas.usda.gov.) Ukraine Corn: Brief Rainy Episode in July Fails to Boost Prospects USDA estimates Ukraine corn production for 2017/18 at 27.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.0 mmt from last month but up 0.5 mmt from last year. The estimated harvested area is unchanged at 4.5 million hectares, up slightly from last year. The estimated yield is reduced to 6.11 metric tons per hectare, down 4 percent from last month and down 7 percent from last year but 3 percent above the 5-year average. Dryness has prevailed in the main corn-production region throughout much of the growing season. Crops benefited from timely rain during late July, but this was followed by a return to unfavorably dry weather. The corn harvest is underway in southern Ukraine, but less than 1 percent of the planted area had been harvested by September 6. (For more information, please contact Mark.Lindeman@fas.usda.gov.) 7

8 Bangladesh Rice: Major Flooding Reduces Estimate USDA forecasts Bangladesh rice production for 2017/18 at 33.5 million metric tons (milled basis), down 2 percent from last month. Heavy monsoon rain since May has caused flooding across the major rice areas of Dhaka and Rajshahi, which account for about 70 percent of total rice production. Harvested area is estimated at 11.5 million hectares, down 1 percent from last month and down 2 percent from 2016/17. is estimated at 4.37 metric tons per hectare, down 1 percent from last year. The slight decrease in yield is due to excessive rain that impacted only the aus and aman crops, which make up roughly 50 percent of the total rice crop. The Bangladesh Department of Disaster reported that 600,000 hectares of rice has been impacted by flooding over 32 districts. Heavy rains have prevailed in Bangladesh since May. In the major rice-producing areas of Rajshahi, cumulative rainfall is double the long-term average and Dhaka has received 17 percent more than the long-term average. Rice is grown throughout the year. Boro rice, which is the largest crop, is the first to be planted, followed by aus and aman. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.) India Rice: Up Slightly from Last Year USDA forecasts India rice production for 2017/18 at million metric tons (milled basis), up 2 percent from last month and nearly unchanged from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 44.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 4 percent from last year. is forecast at 3.71 tons per hectare, down 4 percent from last year, as area has expanded into marginal lands. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.) 8

9 World Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service / International Assessment Division (IPAD) Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-569), September 12, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS International Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, October 12, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Metric tons to 480-lb bales Metric tons to hundredweight Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Cotton = MT * Rice = MT * & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds 9

10 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service International Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Director Ronald Frantz Deputy Director Robert Tetrault Administrative Assistant Shelisa Johnson USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Sr. Analyst/Satellite Imagery Curt Reynolds, Ph.D Archives Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/ Technical Lead Dath Mita, Ph.D Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Vacant GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION, Argentina, Venezuela, Denise McWilliams, Ph.D and Colombia Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell and North Africa Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan Mark Lindeman South Asia, Sri Lanka Arnella Trent Bangladesh, India, and Nepal East Asia, China, and Japan Dath Mita, Ph.D Sub-Saharan Africa, Curt Reynolds, Ph.D Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean Cambodia and Vietnam Central America, Mexico, Justin Jenkins and Western United States Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan Jim Crutchfield Papua New Guinea and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Central Asia, Afghanistan Bill Baker, Ph.D Iraq, Iran, and Syria Canada, Caribbean, Katie McGaughey Eastern United States Brazil Maria Anulacion

11 The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Reports: Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Reports: Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): EU Countries & Estimates Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): Export Sales Report: Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): Economic Research Service: National Agricultural Statistics Service:

12 Table 01 World Crop Summary Million Metric Tons Commodity World - - Total Foreign - North America United States North America Canada - North America Mexico - Former Soviet Russia - Former Soviet Ukraine - Europea n - Asia (WAP) China - Asia (WAP) India - South America Brazil - Asia (WAP) Indonesia Asia (WAP) Pakistan Asia (WAP) Thailand South America Argentina Selected Other Australia Selected Other South Africa Selected Other Turkey - All Others - ---Million metric tons--- Wheat nr /17 prel nr /18 proj. Aug nr Sep nr Coarse Grains 1, nr /17 prel. 1, nr /18 proj. Aug 1, nr Sep 1, nr Rice, Milled nr /17 prel nr /18 proj. Aug nr Sep nr Total Grains 2, , nr /17 prel. 2, , nr /18 proj. Aug 2, , nr Sep 2, , nr Oilseeds nr /17 prel nr /18 proj. Aug nr Sep nr Cotton /17 prel /18 proj. Aug Sep / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

13 Table 02 Wheat,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union China South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Nepal Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Belarus Canada Argentina Brazil Uruguay Australia Africa Egypt Morocco Ethiopia Algeria Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Mexico Others

14 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep MMT Percent MMT Percent World , , , , United States Total Foreign China European Union Brazil Argentina Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Africa Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Burkina Ethiopia Egypt Mali India Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Others ; Coarse Grain includes: Barley, Corn, Millet, Mixed Grains, Oats, Rye and Sorghum

15 Table 04 Corn,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep MMT Percent MMT Percent World , , , United States Total Foreign China Brazil Argentina Bolivia European Union Africa South Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Egypt Tanzania Malawi Zambia Kenya Uganda Zimbabwe Former Soviet Union - 12 Ukraine Russia South Asia India Pakistan Nepal Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Turkey Others

16 Table 05 Barley,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Azerbaijan Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Africa Ethiopia Morocco Algeria Tunisia South Africa Argentina Uruguay Brazil India China Mexico Afghanistan Others

17 Table 06 Oats,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Belarus Kazakhstan Canada Argentina Brazil Chile Uruguay Oceania Australia New Zealand China Africa Algeria Morocco South Africa Other Europe Norway Serbia Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Turkey Mexico Others

18 Table 07 Rye,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Belarus Ukraine Kazakhstan Turkey Canada Chile Argentina Other Europe Bosnia and Herzegovina Switzerland Serbia Australia Others

19 Table 08 Sorghum,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Sudan Burkina Mali Niger Cameroon Tanzania Egypt Uganda Ghana Mozambique South Africa Mexico Argentina Brazil South Asia India Pakistan China Australia European Union Others

20 Table 09 Rice,, and Change in (Metric tons per hectare) 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign East Asia China Japan Korea, South Korea, North South Asia India Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Philippines Cambodia Laos Malaysia Brazil Peru Africa Egypt Madagascar Nigeria European Union Iran Others is on a rough basis, before the milling process. is on a milled basis, after the milling process.

21 Table 10 Total Oilseed,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Total Foreign Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Palm Kernel Major OilSeeds United States Foreign Oilseeds Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay China South Asia India Pakistan European Union Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Canada Africa Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Australia Turkey Others World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)

22 Table 11 Soybean,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay East Asia China Korea, South Korea, North Japan India Canada Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine European Union Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Serbia Mexico Africa South Africa Nigeria Zambia Uganda Middle East Iran Turkey Others

23 Table 12 Cottonseed,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep 2016/17 Aug Sep MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign South Asia India Pakistan China Former Soviet Union - 12 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan Brazil Argentina Middle East Turkey Syria Iran Australia European Union Africa Burkina Mali Cameroon Cote d'ivoire Benin Tanzania Egypt Nigeria Uganda Zimbabwe Sudan Mexico Burma Others