Emerging strategy and opportunities in horticulture (ANNEX) March 25, 2010

Transcription

1 Emerging strategy and opportunities in horticulture (ANNEX) March 25,

2 ANNEX CONTENTS PRELIMINARY Horticulture market dynamics The income case for horticulture The nutrition case for horticulture Funding landscape Field visit learnings List of people interviewed 2

3 Fruits and vegetables comprise 16% of SSA agricultural crop consumption, the 3 rd largest category after roots & tubers and cereals Total agricultural consumption in SSA (2003, in M tonnes) Onions Roots, Other Other Pineapples Millet Other Roots & Tuber Dry Equiv Citrus, Other Rice (Milled Equivalent) Bananas Potatoes Sweet Potatoes Wheat Fruits, Other Yams Sorghum Explicit horticulture Potential horticulture 19 Tomatoes 90 Vegetables, Other Interviews suggest leaves of roots and tubers (e.g. cassava, sweet potatoes) are consumed widely in SSA Cassava Rice (Paddy Equivalent) Maize Plantains FAO data groups many vegetables together (e.g. exotic and indigenous leafy greens) Starchy Roots Cereals - Excluding Beer Fruits- Excluding Wine Vegetables Roots & tubers Cereals Fruits Vegetables Other Legumes Note: Potential horticulture includes some roots/tubers (e.g. carrots) and some legumes (e.g. cowpeas ); Other includes sugars, legumes, oils, coffee, cocoa, tea, spices; Excludes livestock and fish; Excludes Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and South Africa Source: FAOSTAT 3

4 The majority of households in SSA consume at least some fruits and vegetables Percentage of HHs consuming fruits or vegetables Fruits Vegetables 100% Ethiopia Burundi Malawi Mozambique Tanzania Rwanda Kenya Uganda Ghana Guinea Source: Patterns and determinants of fruit and vegetable consumption in sub-saharan Africa (Ruel et al, 2005) 4

5 Domestic markets are a primary focus because 95% of horticulture production remains in country and 97% of consumption is local Vast majority of fruits and vegetables produced in Africa remain in country Only 3% of total consumption is imported Total African Production (2005) (millions of tonnes) % 8% 90% 0% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 92% Fruits 50 2% 0% 98% Vegetables Export out of region Export in region Remain in country Percentage remaining in country likely higher due to hidden horticulture (e.g. indigenous vegetables) Consumption and imports (M s of tonnes) % Imports Note: Discrepancies between consumption and production in FAO, further validation required; Export production breakdown uses 2005 production figures with 2003 export percentages; Import figure likely higher but not reported; Assumes that fruit import rates are the same as vegetable import rates Source: FAO; Dalberg analysis 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Local production Total consumption FOR VALIDATION 3 Other Apples Tomato paste Onions Total imports Juice and concentrate 5

6 Domestic processing Fruits Domestic niche market Fruits Vegetables Domestic mass market Fruits Vegetables PRELIMINARY In domestic East African horticulture, there are ~6 crops that can be classified as mass market % of volume traded (Kenya) 1 Cabbage 8.4% Kales (a.k.a. sukuma wiki or rape ) 8.2% Tomatoes 6.8% Exotic and indigenous leafy greens* 1-2% Onions 1.7% Bananas** 23.0% Mangoes 3.5% Carrots <1% Sweet and hot peppers <1% Butternut squash <1% African eggplant <1% Passion <1% Watermelon <1% Pineapples 9.1% Mango, passion, guava, apple, citrus - Note: Crop list synthesizes across expert interviews with on-the-ground stakeholders, *Includes amaranth, black nightshade, spiderplant, cowpea leaves, cassava leaves and spinach; **Includes both cooking and sweet varieties, Bulk of production comes from Delmonte farm and Kakuzi Ltd Source: 1) From TNS Kenya (sourced from Ministry of Agriculture, Customs, and KEPHIS), data indicates % of total fruit and vegetable volume captured in database, total includes Irish Potatoes (25% of volume traded) 6

7 Wheat Dry maize Green maize Cassava Cabbage Kale Tomato Onions Sweet banana Cooking banana Mango (local) Mangoes Ngowe PRELIMINARY Cost per 100g serving of mass market horticulture commodities is comparable to staple grains Early morning wholesale prices per 100g (Kenyan Shillings) At current exchange rate, 0.50 KES is ~ 2/3 US cent Staples (current portfolio focus) Mass market horticulture Note: Based on wholesale price quoted at Nairobi market on March 1, 2010; prices for rice and indigenous vegetables not available Source: Kenya Ministry of Agriculture, Market Research and Information 7

8 Historical and projected consumption growth imply sufficient demand to absorb production increases Significant historical demand growth for horticulture in Africa are coupled with growth forecasts above rest of world Historical consumption CAGR (93-03) Asia Africa Fruits 0.8 Latin Oceania US & America Canada Vegetables Europe Projected annual consumption growth ( ) Central Asia Africa Latin America US & Can Vegetables Fruits W. Europe Source: FAO (Asia includes Middle East; Latin America includes Carribbean) Source: Euromonitor 8

9 Local income elasticities confirm that rising incomes will be met with growing demand for fruits and vegetables Income elasticities for fruits and vegetables 1 Vegetables Fruits Burundi Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Compound annual growth rate in per capita gross national income (real currency) 2 20% Burundi Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Note: Income elasticity of 0.60 for fruit indicates that for 10% increase in income there will be a 6% increase in percentage of total budget allocated to fruit Source: 1) Patterns and determinants of fruit and vegetable consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa (Ruel et al, 2005); 2) United Nations Statistics Division (using World Bank historical GDP deflators) 9

10 ANNEX CONTENTS PRELIMINARY Horticulture market dynamics The income case for horticulture The nutrition case for horticulture Funding landscape Field visit learnings List of people interviewed 10

11 Production of horticultural crops in East Africa is widespread, offering the potential to reach ~10 million smallholder farmers Estimated # of smallholder farmers growing horticulture in East Africa, Kenya extrapolation* 13M ~9-13 All SHFs 1 ~1-1.5M No horticulture production 2 ~ M Horticulture production for onfarm consumption only 2 ~5-7.5M Horticulture production for domestic sale 2 <0.5M Horticulture production for export only 3 Horticulture interventions have the potential to impact almost all of East Africa s ~10+ million smallholder farmers Migrating SHFs to income-generating horticulture offers opportunity to impact ~3 million Intensifying and improving existing horticulture income streams offers opportunity to reach ~6 million *Horticulture market in Kenya is relatively advanced; ranges reflect likely overstatement when applied to region Note: # of smallholder farmers in EA relative to SSA assumed to be proportional to population differences between EA and SSA Source: 1) Key note address by Lennart Bage (IFAD President) to African Green Revolution Conference, August 2008, 2) Tegemeo Institute, unpublished 2007 survey data (nationally representative survey, Kenya), 3) Interview with Steve Mbithi, CEO of FPEAK 11

12 Horticulture offers 5-8x income increases for SHFs over staple crops, as well as indirect employment and commercialization benefits Field interviews and intervention successes confirm SHF income potential from horticulture Additional indirect income and employment is created through production, value-add, and commercialization 3 Value for horticulture is roughly 5-8 times that of any staple crop per unit of land 1 --Steve Mbithi, CEO of Fresh Produce Exporters Association of Kenya [Horticulture provides] employment and wages to laborers Often, horticultural production requires twice as much, sometimes up to four times as much labor than the production of cereal crops. USAID s Kenya Horticulture Development Program (KHDP) demonstrated ~7x income increases 2 : $12M, 5-year project addressed multiple constraints across multiple crops within designated geographical areas, reaching ~1,200 farmer groups Local market sales accounted for more than 70% of grower income in 4 of the 5 areas, with the exception demonstrating the lowest income growth % of farms using paid labor 4 60% Horticultural farmers 15 Non-horticultural farmers Horticulture also provides indirect income opportunities from value-add and commercialization: Employment opportunities in post-harvest and processing create additional jobs, often for women Relative to staples, horticulture is more likely to be sold rather than consumed on farm, creating cash flow, trade, and increased demand for local businesses Source: 1) Interview with Steve Mbithi, CEO of Fresh Produce Exporters Association of Kenya, 2) USAID KHDP Final Report, April 2009, Prepared by Fintrac Inc., 3) Diversification in Horticulture and Poverty Reduction, Weinberger, K., 4) Horticulture, Livelihoods, and Pesticides in Africa: Evidence from S-W Cameroon, Parrot, L.,

13 Average production costs tend to be higher for horticultural crops than either cash or staple crops Total costs of production (Uganda example, USD per ha) Coffee Cocoa Green vanilla beans Passion fruit Okra Papaya Onion Tomato Recommended practices Traditional practices Cassava Wheat Sweet potato Maize Horticulture average (618) Cash crop average (408) Staple crop average (278) Cash crops Horticulture Staple crops Note: Averages based on recommended practices; 1 USD = 2016 UGX; okra, papaya, onion and tomato taken from Robinah et al; all other crops from Aliguma Source: Small farmer participation in export production: The case of Uganda (L Aliguma, July 2003); Pro-poor Horticulture in East Africa and South East Asia: The Horticultural Sector in Uganda (Robinah Sonko et al, January 2005) 13

14 However, horticultural commodities typically offer higher returns than staple crops Gross margin for selected crops under treadle pump irrigation on one hectare of land (Malawi, in MK) Green maize Sweet potato 164 Tobacco Cauliflower Tomato 118 Broccoli 98 Cucumber Staples Cash Horticulture Green pea High level management Medium level management Cabbage Carrot Paprika Note: High level management not available for tobacco Source: Vegetable Research and Development in Malawi: Review and Planning Workshop Proceedings (AVRDC, Sept 03) 14

15 Additional data from Kickstart corroborates finding that horticulture has higher production costs and higher returns Maize Butternut Carrots Shujaa (Nightshade) Cabbage Onions Spinach Black Nightshade Kales Capsium Tomatoes Parsley Total costs of production per acre (Kenya example, thousand KES per acre per year) Seed Labor Fertilizer Chemicals Transport & marketing FURTHER ANALYSIS REQUIRED Gross margin: 50% 96% 93% 86% 62% 79% 67% 36% 74% 93% 69% 91% Note: Further analysis of underlying data set required (income data likely overestimated) Source: Kickstart 18-Month Follow-Up Survey (based on treadle pump irrigation) 15

16 Horticulture production as a means of generating income is important to SHFs regardless of proximity to urban centers or income quartile Coastal Lowlands Eastern Lowlands Western Lowlands Western Transitional High Potential Maize Zone Western Highlands Central Highlands Top quartile Second quartile Third quartile Bottom quartile Percentage of households selling FFV by region (Kenya 2007) Strong urban linkage Percentage of households selling FFV by income quartile* (Kenya 2007) 100% 100% Note: Based on rural household population survey (n = 1309); Central highlands, Western highlands and Coastal Lowlands serve Nairobi, Kisumu and Mombasa, respectively; FFV = fresh fruits and vegetables; *Income quartile per adult equivalent; Urban areas are estimated to account for over 80% of growth in demand for FFV over next 25 years Source: Assessment of Kenya's Domestic Horticultural Production and Marketing Systems and Lessons for the future (Tschirley and Ayieko, Tegemeo Institute, Sept 2008) 16

17 Moreover, horticulture is a particularly important source of income to the most marginal of smallholders Top quartile Second quartile Third quartile Bottom quartile Top quartile Second quartile Third quartile Bottom quartile Household share of income from FFV production by income quartile* (Kenya 2007) Household share of land allocated to FFV production by income quartile* (Kenya 2007) 18 18% 45% Note: Based on rural household population survey (n = 1309); FFV = fresh fruits and vegetables; *Income quartile per adult equivalent Source: Assessment of Kenya's Domestic Horticultural Production and Marketing Systems and Lessons for the future (Tschirley and Ayieko, Tegemeo Institute, Sept 2008) 17

18 ANNEX CONTENTS PRELIMINARY Horticulture market dynamics The income case for horticulture The nutrition case for horticulture Funding landscape Field visit learnings List of people interviewed 18

19 When targeting nutritional outcomes, agricultural development is most important for creating household availability of necessary foods Sources of food Own food production Food Purchases Gifts of food Household food availability Food distribution within household Child feeding practices Appetite suppression due to disease Individual food consumption Dietary quality Disease Food preparation Individual nutritional status Collection of wild foods Agriculture development Targets increased availability, via food production and purchases (by increasing incomes) Source: Adapted from Maternal and Child Undernutrition Series (The Lancet, 2008) Global health Also attentive to how household availability is translated into individual nutritional status (especially <2 years) 19

20 Horticulture is important from a nutrition perspective, as consumption is far below WHO guidelines Total daily fruit and vegetable consumption (grams/day) WHO minimum guideline (400 g) Developed countries Asia Developing countries in Asia Latin America West Africa Southern Africa Central Africa East Africa Source: FAOSTAT, 2004; WHO 20

21 Macronutrients 2 Micronutrients 3 Function: Types: Provide structural material and energy Recommended ratio of energy sources: 1 Carbohydrates Carbohydrates Fats Protein Fiber Water 72% Protein 11% 17% Fat Together account for total caloric intake Necessary for digestion and fluid balance Total Calories (Mean requirement: 2100 Calories*) Function: Types (not exhaustive) : Calcium Minerals Magnesium Iodine Iron Selenium Zinc Act as coenzymes and cofactors in numerous metabolic processes Many are directly or indirectly involved in gene expression Bulk minerals (electrolytes) Trace minerals (catalysts) Vitamins Vitamin A Vitamin C Vitamin D Vitamin E Vitamin K B Vitamins BMGF Priorities: Energy intake for children -9 to 24 months and pregnant/lactating women 4 BMGF Priorities: Vitamin A, Iron, Zinc, Folic Acid, Iodine 4 Note: *Requirements vary significantly by age, gender and health status; mean is based on weighted average across subgroups; List of micronutrients is not exhaustive (focus is on most significant) Source: 1 Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response (2004 Edition); 2 World Health Organization; 3 medscape.com; 4 BMGF Nutrition Strategy Report 21

22 Fruits/vegetables can be good sources of simple carbs, protein, and fiber but are generally not the most effective source of macronutrients Macronutrient Subcategory Key Sources Carbohydrates Fats Proteins Fiber Complex Simple Saturated Unsaturated Trans Fatty Acids Hydrogenated, partially hydrogenated Complete Incomplete Soluble Insoluble Legumes, starchy vegetables (e.g., roots and tubers), whole grain bread and cereals Fruits, milk and milk products, vegetables Animal products (butter, whole milk, cream, fatty meat), some vegetable oils Fish, corn, sunflower, safflower Olive, canola, soybean oils Margarines, fried and processed food Hardened oils (butters, margarines) Meat, fish, poultry, eggs, milk, milk products, soy Beans, peas, nuts, seeds, grain Oat bran, barley, nuts, seeds, beans, lentils, peas, some fruits and vegetables Wheat bran, vegetables, and whole grains Water NA Drinking water, soup, milk, juices Source: University of Maryland Medical Center 22

23 Micronutrient Role in development/human health Vitamin A Vitamin A deficiency is the leading cause of preventable blindness in children 1 Insufficient Vitamin A increases the risk of disease and death from severe infections 1 Iron Iron deficiency (anemia) is the most common and widespread nutritional disorder in the world 1 Major health consequences of iron deficiency include poor pregnancy outcome, impaired physical and cognitive development, increased risk of morbidity in children and reduced work productivity in adults 1 Zinc Zinc deficiency in children results in increased risk of diarrhea, pneumonia, and malaria 2 Growth stunting is also a common clinical manifestation of zinc deficiency 2 Folic acid Critical for the production and maintenance of new cells 3 Reduces the risk of serious birth defects that result from improper neural tube development 3 Iodine Iodine deficiency is a main cause of impaired cognitive development in children 1 Iodine deficiency during pregnancy can lead to severe congenital abnormalities 1 Calcium* Most abundant mineral in the body; supports bone and teeth structure 3 Also required for muscle contraction, blood vessel expansion and contraction, secretion of hormones and enzymes, and nerve signal transmission 3 Vitamin D* Plays a role in absorption and retention of calcium and phosphorus 4 Help to prohibit cancer growth and control infections 4 *May be included as part of 2010 Nutrition Strategy Refresh Source: 1) World Health Organization ( Micronutrients ); 2) Maternal and Child Undernutrition (The Lancet); 3) NIH Office of Dietary Supplements; 4) Harvard School of Public Health 23

24 Insufficiencies for these micronutrients are pronounced in sub- PRELIMINARY Saharan Africa Vitamin A 1 Iron 2 Zinc 3 Iodine 4 Note: For some nutrients (e.g fat-soluble vitamins such as Vitamin A) there can be risk of overconsumption; Risk of excess iodine in some SSA countries likely have high iodine content in soils; map of folic acid deficiency not available in Lancet/WHO Source: 1) Maternal and Child Undernutrition (The Lancet 2008); 2) Anemia rates in preschool-age children (WHO 2005); 3) Maternal and Child Undernutrition (The Lancet 2008); 4) Degree of public health significance of iodine nutrition (WHO 2006) 24

25 There are a number of fruits and vegetables that are attractive sources of Vitamin A East Africa Production CAGR ( 00-07) Bananas Green chillies and peppers Sorghum Okra Tomatoes Onions Annex contains detailed description of sources 1.05 Cow milk Mangoes Pigeon peas Papayas Cow Millet peas Chicken meat Eggplants Green Cabbages beans Pig meat 1.02 Avocados Soybeans Amaranth Eggs Pumpkins Cassava Plantains Sheep milk Red chilli Cucumbers African Cashewapple eggplant and gherkins Oranges 0.99 Goat milk Lemons and limes Kale Tangerines Pumpkin, taro, Nightshade cassava and cowpea Pineapples leaves; swiss chard Vegetables Cereals Legumes & nuts Roots & tubers Feed & Livestock Sweet potatoes ,000 1,500 2,000 Kenya Vitamin A Content (mcg/100g) Note: Includes commodities from FAOSTAT with >5K tonnes East Africa production in 2007 for which there is nutritional information in World Food 2.0 Kenya/Senegal databases; Excludes commodities for which Vitamin A content is zero; Beef liver is very high in Vitamin A (20mg/100g) but excluded from chart; Amaranth and nightshade from AVRDC (Tanzania example, average across regions); Commodity classifications taken from FAO; WorldFood nutritional information based on 100g of product as consumed (Raw-Edible Portion); See annex for complete description of sources Source: Production data taken from FAOSTAT; Nutrition content taken from World Food Dietary Assessment System Version 2.0 (Kenya and Senegal Databases) Fruits Dairy Horticultural products with high nutritional content but production data lacking Note: Size of bubble indicates total East African production (2007) Carrots Key Findings Orange fleshy fruits and vegetables are particularly high in Vitamin A content --mangoes --orange roots and tubers such as sweet potato and carrots also attractive Green leafy vegetables also a good source --kale, swiss chard --leaves of staples such as cassava --IVs such as amaranth and nightshade [Note: specific production data not available from FAO] 25

26 Legumes, nuts and indigenous vegetables are the best sources of aggregate iron content; bioavailability may be limited relative to meat East Africa Production CAGR ( 00-07) 1.10 Sheep meat Eggs Avocados Camel meat Pumpkins Taro Yams Cucumbers 1.00 Cashewapple Lemons and and gherkins limes Plantains Cassava Cashews Sheep milk 0.98 Rabbit meat 0.96 Okra Wheat Sorghum Onions Sweet potatoes Pigeon peas Green beans 1.04 Potatoes Carrots Cow peas Goat meat Chicken meat Millet Eggplants Maize Pig meat 1.02 Cabbages Cattle meat African eggplant 0.0 Green chillies and peppers Bananas Tomatoes 0.5 Pineapples 1.0 Rice, paddy Cassava leaves Kidney beans Peanuts Soybeans Cereals Legumes & nuts Feed & Livestock Vegetables Roots & tubers Fruits Dairy Nightshade Amaranth Kenya Iron Content (mg/100g) Note: Includes commodities from FAOSTAT with >5K tonnes East Africa production in 2007 for which there is nutritional information in World Food 2.0 Kenya/Senegal databases; Excludes commodities for which iron content is less than 0.1g/100g serving; Beef liver is very high in iron (7mg/100g) but excluded from chart; Amaranth and nightshade from AVRDC (Tanzania example, average across regions); Commodity classifications taken from FAO; Nutritional information based on 100g of product as consumed (Raw-Edible Portion); Size of bubble indicates total East African production (2007) Source: Production data taken from FAOSTAT; Nutrition content taken from World Food Dietary Assessment System Version 2.0 (Kenya and Senegal Databases) 10.8mg 20.7mg Horticultural products with high nutritional content but production data lacking Key Findings Indigenous vegetables can contain significant quantities of iron (exact amount is soil dependent) [Note: specific production data not available from FAO] Legumes and nuts are also attractive sources of aggregate iron content Meats have lower aggregate iron but higher bioavailability 26

27 Zinc is best obtained through meats and legumes; fruits and vegetables are not priority sources East Africa Production CAGR ( 00-07) 1.10 Bananas Onions Green chillies and peppers Potatoes Okra Cow milk Green beans Carrots Maize Sweet potatoes Eggplants 1.02 Avocados Pumpkins Yams African Cassava Eggs Taro eggplant Goat milk Sheep milk Nightshade Wheat Rice, paddy Amaranth Feed & Livestock Legumes & nuts Cereals Dairy Cow peas Chicken meat Sorghum Roots & tubers Vegetables Fruits Pigeon peas Pig meat Indigenous vegetables with production data lacking Soybeans Sheep meat Goat meat Cashews Peanuts Cattle meat Millet Camel meat Rabbit meat PRELIMINARY Key Findings Zinc typically found in foods that are high in protein (meats and legumes) Staple crops are more attractive sources of zinc than fruits and vegetables (commodities with less than 0.1mg per 100g serving excluded from chart, including many horticultural commodities) Kenya Zinc Content (mg/100g) Note: Includes commodities from FAOSTAT with >5K tonnes East Africa production in 2007 for which there is nutritional information in World Food 2.0 Kenya/Senegal databases; Excludes commodities for which zinc content is less than 0.1g/100g serving; Amaranth and nightshade from AVRDC (Tanzania example, average across regions); Commodity classifications taken from FAO; Nutritional information based on 100g of product as consumed (Raw-Edible Portion); Size of bubble indicates total East African production (2007) Source: Production data taken from FAOSTAT; Nutrition content taken from World Food Dietary Assessment System Version 2.0 (Kenya and Senegal Databases) 27

28 Legumes & nuts and the leaves of staple crops appear to be the most attractive sources of folate East Africa Production CAGR ( 00-07) 1.10 Bananas Wheat Green chillies and peppers 1.07 Okra Tomatoes 1.06 Sorghum Peanuts Mangoes 1.05 Onions Sweet potatoes Green beans Pigeon peas 1.04 Papayas Millet 1.03 Carrots, Turnips Eggplants Maize Cabbages Pumpkin/taro leaves 1.02 and swiss chard Yams Eggs 1.01 Avocados Kidney beans Taro Cassava Oranges Cucumbers 1.00 Lemons Cashewapple and limes gherkins Sheep milk 0.99 Tangerines, mandarins, clem. Cashews Pumpkins Plantains Cassava and 0.98 cowpea leaves Legumes & nuts Cereals Vegetables Feed & Livestock Cow peas Fruits Roots & tubers Dairy Production data lacking (only nutritional content indicated) Soybeans Key Findings Legumes and nuts are the major source of folate Green leaves are also high in folate [Note: specific production data not available from FAO] Data on folate content of IVs not available;, but high content in leaves of staple crops suggests IVs may also be an attractive source Pineapples Kenya Folate content (mcg/100g) Note: Includes commodities from FAOSTAT with >5K tonnes production in 2007 for which there is nutritional information in World Food 2.0 Kenya and Senegal Databases; Excludes commodities for which folate content is less than 10mg/100g; C Beef liver is very high in folate (290mcg/100g) but excluded from chart; Commodity classifications taken from FAO; Nutritional information based on 100g of product as consumed (Raw-Edible Portion); Size of bubble indicates total East African production (2007) Source: Production data taken from FAOSTAT; Nutrition content taken from World Food Dietary Assessment System Version 2.0 (Kenya and Senegal Databases) 28

29 Beyond dietary diversity, there are three major approaches to increasing the availability of priority micronutrients PRELIMINARY Dietary diversity Supplementation Fortification Biofortification Description Increase consumption of fruits, vegetables, meats and dairy goods that are naturally high in target nutrients Provide nutrients in the form of pharmaceutical preparations (capsules, tablets, syrups) Target nutrients are added to foods as they are being processed Breed or genetically modify crops to increase their nutritional value Examples Leafy greens as source of Vitamin A Twice yearly Vitamin A capsules for preschool children Vitamin D in milk Iron in flour Iodine in Salt Golden rice Caveats Requires longer time horizon to achieve results * Changing consumer tastes/preferences can be very difficult Difficult to reach rural poor, where healthcare systems are underdeveloped Recurring costs Rural poor have limited access to fortified foods Recurring costs Significant upfront costs; minor ongoing costs to maintain traits in crops Uptake will depend on access that poor have to modified seed There can be resistance to changed characteristics of familiar foods (e.g. color) Source: Why Biofortification Makes Sense ( Biofortification, biodiversity and diet: A search for complementary applications against poverty and malnutrition (Johns and Eyzaguirre, 2006); * Assessing the Potential for Food-Based Strategies (Ruel 2000) 29

30 Preliminary data suggests that biofortification could be more cost effective than dietary diversity for increasing Vitamin A consumption FURTHER ANALYSIS REQUIRED Cost per DALY saved due to increased Vitamin A consumption ($) Wide ranges reflect uncertainty about full cost of biofortification programs High end of range Low end of range Cost of Vitamin A interventions in Guatemala ($) Does not take into account recurring costs associated with fortification and supplementation Supplementation (Africa) Fortification (Africa) 11 Biofortification (Ethiopia, Maize) 18 Biofortification (Kenya, Maize) 9 Biofortification (Uganda, Sweetpotato) 0 Fortification (in sugar) Supplementation (capsule distribution) Gardening plus nutrition education Note: Biofortification estimates are based on HarvestPlus calculations; DALY = Disability Adjusted Life Year Source: 1) How cost-effective is biofortification in combating micronutrient malnutrition? An ex-ante assessment (Meenakshi et al, August 2007); 2) Prevention of micronutrient deficiencies: Tools for policymakers and public health workers (IOM) 30

31 However, there is still a strong case to be made for horticulture given the many challenges/drawbacks to biofortification Access Biofortified seeds may be inaccessible to poorest farmers due to cost/availability Lack of information about production techniques may limit yields that poor farmers obtain from biofortified varieties Dietary simplification Biofortification only addresses symptoms of malnutrition (a particular nutrient deficiency); human health depends on many different inputs including fiber, antioxidants, immunomodulators, glycemic agents, etc. There are complex interactions between nutrients that supplementation/fortification cannot address (e.g. Vitamin A and lipids) Dietary diversity is the only solution that addresses the double burden of malnutrition (both underconsumption and overconsumption) Biodiversity Emphasis on a short list of biofortified crops is likely to reduce land that is available to minor crops Resulting loss in biodiversity will remove an important buffer against change (e.g. weather, pests, disease) Demand Consumer acceptance of biofortified varieties is not guaranteed (e.g. in Africa and Central America, varieties of maize with high levels of ß-carotene have not been adopted due to cultural reasons) Research has shown that dietary diversity is the desire of poor people themselves (Bouis 2003) Source: Biofortification, biodiversity and diet: A search for complementary applications against poverty and malnutrition (Johns and Eyzaguirre, 2006); Interview with Ray-Yu Yang (AVRDC) 31