21/06/2009. Metric Tons (000) '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '

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1 How Increasing Temperatures Have Reduced Yields and Quality of Californian i Tree Fruit in Warm Years Ted DeJong Department of Plant Sciences UC Davis While much of the climate change discussion is focused on log-term effects of global warming on general factors influencing crop production like photosynthesis, water use and availability, etc., recent experience in California lf indicates that problems related to tree fruit production may be more specific and immediate. Many of these are related to developmental processes rather than assimilatory processes and will be more difficult to deal with in perennial crops than in annual crops. 1

2 Importance of Developmental Processes Developmental processes don t onlydrive organ growth and biomass yield. They influence whether there is a crop and the quality of the crop. In tree crops, crop quality is probably as much of an issue today as crop quantity. So first I will remind us about how climate change could affect developmental processes and crop quality. Floral initiation and differentiation Floral initiation and differentiation occurs during the summer and fall of the year prior to bloom. It is well documented that high heat and/or water stress during summer and early fall can cause fruit defects such as double fruits or deep sutures in cherries, peaches and prunes in the subsequent year due to developmental abnormalities. 2

3 Flowering and fruit set Flowering date and characteristics of bloom are strongly affected by winter chilling (cumulative temp. 7 C) and post-rest heat accumulation. The central valley of California i is generally considered a moderate to high chill region. Winter chilling in central valley is strongly affected by an insulating fog layer. Climate change will likely decrease the incidence of fog and winter chilling. Decreased winter chilling results in late and straggled bloom and can influence pollination, fruit set (+/-) or cause poor fruit quality. Some crops such as apricots and cherries are known to drop flower buds or not set any crop in extremely low chill years. Fruit set of prunes is very negatively affected by high temperatures and dry winds during bloom Metric Tons () '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 ' Average Crop Yields (Metric Tons Per Hectare) 3

4 Natural Condition Supply 31 Metric Tons () '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 ' Average Hourly temps ( o C) for south Sutter County orchard (Nicolaus area) from March 8-24, 24 Full bloom 25. Ave temp (oc) hourly /6/4 : 3/8/4 : 3/1/4 : 3/12/4 : 3/14/4 : 3/16/4 : 3/18/4 : 3/2/4 : 3/22/4 : 3/24/4 : 4

5 Spring Temperatures 22 Bloom Time Temperatures 23 Bloom Time Temperatures Temperatures ( C) 2 1 Temperatures ( C) /25/2/2 3/4/2/2 3/11/2/2 3/18/2/2 3/25/2/2 4/1/2/2 4/8/2/2-1 2/24/3 3/3/3 /3 3/1/ /3 3/17/ 3/24/3 /3 3/31/ /3 4/7/ 22 French bloom from 3/18 to 3/23 128,935 Net Metric Tons 23 French bloom from 3/17 to 3/21 152,712 Net Metric Tons Spring Temperatures 4 24 Bloom Time Temperature 4 25 Bloom Time Temperatures 3 3 Temperature( C) 2 1 Temperature ( C) /23/4 3/1/4 3/8/4 3/15/4 3/22/4 3/29/4 4/5/4-1 2/28/5 3/7/5 3/14/5 3/21/5 3/28/5 4/4/5 24 French bloom from 3/11 to3/18 25 French bloom from 3/1 to 3/14 43,313 Net Metric Tons 84,753 Net Metric Tons 5

6 Spring Temperatures 26 Bloom Time Temperatures 27 Bloom Time Temperatures Temperature ( C) 2 1 Temperature ( C) /27/6 3/6/6 3/13/6 3/2/6 3/27/6 4/3/6 4/1/6-1 2/26/7 3/5/7 3/12/7 3/19/7 3/26/7 4/2/7 4/9/7 26 French bloom from 3/27 to 4/6 171,25 Net Metric Tons 27 French bloom from 3/16 to 3/2 86,167 Net Metric Tons 6

7 Inclement weather during harvest Rain near or during harvest increases the incidence of fruit brown rot and other fruit and nut diseases. Rain can also cause fruit cracking and destroy the crop. If climate change brings more variable weather, especially more late spring and summer rains it will have a major effect on tree fruit and nut quality and production. What can crop models tell us about the likely general effects of warmer temperatures of fruit size and yield? Crop modeling is good for integrating assimilatory and developmental processes. Assimilation processes (determine the supply of carbohydrates and nutrients available to support growth and development) Developmental processes (drive organ initiation and rates of development and demand for carbohydrates and nutrients) 7

8 Simulation Model of Fruit and Tree Growth Grossman and DeJong, 1994 Using the L-Peach Model to Study and Develop an Integrated Understanding of Tree Crop Physiology. T. M. DeJong 1, Y.F. Grossman 2, G. Lopez 3 and R. Favreau 1 1 Department of Plant Sciences, UC Davis, CA 95616, USA 2 Department of Biology, Beloit College, Beloit, WI 3 Irrigation Technology, IRTA, Lleida 25198, Spain. 8

9 Carbon Budget CO 2 Carbon Supply Photosynthesis CARBON POOL Carbon Demand Respiration Growth CO 2 BIOMASS Structure Storage Environmental Parameters Air Temperature Solar Radiation 5 8 Temperature (C) Radiation (cal cm -2 day -1 ) Calendar Day Calendar Day Kearney Agricultural Center,

10 Simulated Carbon Supply: Daily Assimilation 4 Assimilation (g CHO) Calendar Day.4 Rate Relative Growth (g g-1 dd-) Degree days Grossman and DeJong Annals of Botany 75:

11 Individual Fruit Growth 3 25 Dry mass (g) Calendar Day Daily Carbohydrate Used for Fruit Growth/Tree 4 Daily Fruit Cost (g CHO) Calendar Day 11

12 Fraction of Fruit Growth Allowed (periods of CHO limitation) 1. Proportion Calendar Day Increase in average temperature caused by doubling CO 2 (28 to 56 ppm) * * Kearney Agricultural Center Simulations run by Y.L. Grossman, based on climate data by Snyder et al

13 Peach Phenology: Bloom date and Fruit development rate depends on temperature Sim mulated increase in temperature (C) 1 2 Bloom Thinning Harvest Calendar Day Individual Fruit Mass 3 Dry mass (g) Plus 1C Plus 2C Calendar Day 13

14 Crop Dry Mass at Harvest % -11.1% Dry mass (kg) C +2C Daily Assimilation 4 Assimilation (g CHO) Plus 1C Plus 2C Calendar Day 14

15 Daily Maintenance Respiration 4 Respiration (g CHO) Plus 1C Plus 2C Calendar Day Cumulative Maintenance Respiration % +15% Dry mass (kg) C +2C 15

16 Proportion of Carbon Required for Growth that is Unavailable 1..8 Proportion Plus 1C Plus 2C Calendar Day General Modeling Results Cumulative assimilation relatively unchanged with temp Cumulative maintenance respiration with temp Fruit development period with temp Fruit size with temp 16

17 Temperature has a large effect on fruit developmental processes? Since this general modeling research was done we have discovered that rates of fruit maturity (time between bloom and harvest) are strongly controlled by heat unit accumulation between bloom and 3 days after bloom in stone fruits. 19 Peaches FlavorCrest Queen Crest E.Lady Days of fruit growth Maycrest y = -.59x y = -.61x O'Henry y = -.6x y = -.58x y = -.36x Sum of GDH one month after bloom 17

18 Plums Blackamber Friar ys of fruit growth Da Sum of GDH one month after bloom Fortune Rosemary Royal Diamond Simka y = -.52x y = -.56x y = -.41x y = -.27x y = -.54x y = -.63x Improved French Prune 2 FBD to harvest (Days s) y = -.57x R 2 =.4798 Kearney Winters GDH 3 18

19 42 4 Kingsburg Modesto y = -.1 x P <.1 R 2 =.4117 Yuba City ) R D F S ( m m G D H 3 ( x 1 3 ) 1 FB D to R D ( D a y s ) Kingsburg Modesto Yuba City R 2 = G D H 3 19

20 F r u i t s i z e ( m m ) Kingsburg Modesto Yuba City R 2 = F B D to R D ( D a y s ) To understand why warm springs can cause small fruit we can use RGR models of fruit growth to predict rates of fruit carbohydrate demand in different years. fruit -1 ) 5 4 Spring Lady Cal Red Fruit RGR (mg g -1 dd Degree-days after bloom From Grossman and DeJong

21 Fruit dry weig ght (g fruit -1 ) Full Bloom Spring Lady Full Bloom Cal Red Day of year If we use the RGR functions shown on the previous slide to project potential fruit dry weight growth for three contrasting seasons we see substantial differences in the timing of potential fruit sink demands for carbon. Lopez et al. 29, Acta Hort in press.8.7 Spring Lady.6 The differences between seasons is even more apparent when potential absolute fruit growth rates of individual fruits are calculated for the first 5 days after bloom. -1 fruit -1 ) Fruit absolute growth rate (g day F Full bloom Cal Red Full bloom Day of year Lopez et al. 29, Acta Hort in press 21

22 When the individual fruit growth demands are compounded by prethinning crop loads during the first 5 days after bloom, the differences in potential carbon demand by the fruit among years is really apparent. rement (g tree -1 ) ulative dry weight growth requir Cum Full 1 bloom Spring Lady (1 fruits tree -1 ) Cal Red (2 fruits tree -1 ) Full bloom Day of year Lopez et al. 29, Acta Hort in press Using a critical value of 6 for GDH 3 we would predict substantial sizing problems in 2 out of the 6 past years; near normal sizes in three of the 6 years and large sizes in 1 year. Experience tells us that peach fruit sizes were small in 24 and were also a problem in 27. Fruit sizes were exceptionally large in

23 Summary Fruit and nut production and profitability could be in jeopardy if climate change brings more variable and higher temperatures and alters summer rainfall patterns. The most immediate issues for prune growing in California appear to be: high temperatures during bloom that reduce fruit set high spring temperatures for 3 days after bloom that shorten the fruit development period and thus decrease fruit size Due to their perennial nature (long-lived lived plantings and slow breeding times) adapting these crops to climate change will be more difficult than with annual crops. Thanks for you attention 23

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